Andrew Sparrow 

British Chambers of Commerce conference – as it happened

Andrew Sparrow’s rolling coverage of all the day’s political developments as they happen, including David Cameron, Ed Balls and Nick Clegg addressing the British Chambers of Commerce conference
  
  

David Cameron delivers his speech at the British Chamber of Commerce.
David Cameron delivers his speech at the British Chamber of Commerce. Photograph: Andy Rain/EPA

Afternoon summary

  • Philip Hammond, the foreign secretary, has said that Britain reserves the right to review its decision not to offer lethal military aid to Ukraine. As the Press Association reports, he told MPs there is no military solution to the conflict, although he added that the UK could not allow the Ukrainian armed forces to collapse. Hammond also said fighting in the eastern regions of Ukraine resembles a “small-scale conventional war”. He warned that Russia has aggravated the effects of its initial incursion by “stepping up the military support it provides to its proxies”.
  • Britain has finally signed up to access a vast pool of European data on tens of thousands of wanted criminals, missing people and national security alerts. As the Press Association reports, the Second Generation Schengen Information System (SIS II), which was established in 2007 and is already used by 28 European countries, will help to stop offenders slipping unnoticed into the UK. Ministers have previously faced criticism for not being a signatory to the wide-reaching alert system, including from the spending watchdog, the National Audit Office, in its scathing report last October on managing foreign national offenders.
  • A former senior official at children’s care watchdog Ofsted has apologised for the organisation’s failure to uncover widespread sexual exploitation in Rotherham. As the Press Association reports, John Goldup, who joined Ofsted as director of social care in 2009 and was appointed deputy chief inspector in 2012, told MPs on the communities committee that the watchdog did not focus as it should have done on the dangers of child sex exploitation in inspections in the South Yorkshire town.

That’s all from me for today.

Thanks for the comments.

Len McCluskey, the Unite general secretary, says David Cameron’s BCC speech will fool nobody. He’s issued this statement about it.

David Cameron fools nobody with this empty attempt to curry favour with working people, the very group he has hit with his mindless austerity hammer.

The only way to remedy the appalling draining of wealth, which has accelerated under his government, away from the workers who create it is to support strong trade union representation in our workplaces.

Pay levels have been battered by his punishment of the economy and will take years to recover.

But where unions are present in strength, workers win. Trade union members earn on average, 10 per cent more than non-members.

That is precisely why a Tory government would seek to crush trade unions - and why it will not succeed. The trade union movement is the best and lasting hope workers have in reversing the tide of continuous, deepening inequality on which Cameron and co have built their so-called long term economic plan.

Earlier I quoted John Longworth, the BCC director general, saying he did not know what the Conservatives’ long-term economic plan actually was. (See 9.40am.)

I called the Treasury to ask. And it turns out that it does exist after all.

It’s here.

Here’s a Guardian video with an excerpt from Cameron’s speech.

Here’s Labour’s response to David Cameron’s business lending announcement. (See 2.06pm). It’s a statement from Chuka Umunna, the shadow business secretary.

This is yet another announcement from a Prime Minister who has failed to get the banks lending to our small businesses.

Government scheme after government scheme, from Project Merlin to Funding for Lending has failed. And net lending to small and medium sized businesses fell by £1 billion in the last quarter. Yet the Tories have continued to oppose Labour’s plans for a proper British Investment Bank supported by a regional network.

Where the Tory-led government has failed to act to support small firms, the next Labour government will, because Labour understands that Britain only succeeds when businesses of all sizes succeed and can access the finance they need.

John Longworth, the BCC director general, told the conference in his speech that British businesses needed better access to finance.

Long-term, patient, loan capital is what makes fast-growing small companies into the home-grown, mid-sized champions of the future. Without it, too many are forced to sell out and lose control, eventually and all too often to disappear into the clutches of multinationals.

Only if we fix our business finance system will we have a British, home-grown, Microsoft, Google, Samsung, Miele, Siemens, L’Oreal or Tata in the years ahead.

Is it any wonder that UK productivity has lagged behind our rivals - when business investment in the UK has been persistently, year on year, well below that of Germany’s from as far back as 1870?

This I not a new problem. It is a chronic handicap at the very heart of our economy and one that has been made worse by the great recession we have just experienced.

So, there is no doubt that fixing the relationship between business finance and the rest of the economy is the key to so many of our aspirations.

In his speech to the BCC conference Chuka Umunna, the shadow business secretary, said Labour would “strain every sinew” to support firms.

We will work every day, strain every sinew, to make your lives that bit easier - easier to do business, easier to export, easier to create jobs, easier to succeed.

I won’t make change for the sake of it. But neither will I hesitate from action where improvement is needed. My motto will be this - continuity wherever possible, change only where necessary.

I will use every lever government has to back you actively, to support businesses large and small.

John Longworth, the BCC director general, told Sky News that Ed Miliband’s absence from the BCC conference was “disappointing”.

It was disappointing because I think it was a great opportunity, a platform for the business community, businesses from all over the country, to set out the case.

After his BCC speech David Cameron visited Dovetail Games, a video games company in Chatham, Kent.

This is from the Press Association.

As the prime minister was shown Microsoft Flight Simulator X: Steam Edition, he remarked: “I’ve used one of those” and added: “It feels scarily real.”

Cameron toured the offices of the company, which was founded in 2009 and has won awards for its train simulator, accompanied by chief executive Paul Jackson.

Nick Clegg's Q&A

Nick Clegg is now taking questions.

Q: What do you think we need to do to improve trade relations with Brazil?

Clegg says he takes an interest in this, and has visited Brazil.

At the end of the 19th century, Britain had a strong presence in Latin America.

Partly because of the Commonwealth, partly because of the pull of Europe, partly because of linguistic differences, we let the relationship with Latin America wither on the vine, he says.

It is essential that future governments revive this, he says.

Q: The government is increasing the supply of childcare from the age of two. But what are parents supposed to do before this becomes available?

Clegg says the only logical answer is to close the gap between the point where parental leave ends and access to free childcare begins.

He would like to extend the entitlement to 15 hours of free childcare a week to the parents of all two-year-olds. At the moment only some families qualify.

In the long term, government needs to either extend parental leave, or extend free nursery care.

Q: What would you do to help small firms get access to finance?

Clegg says when Vince Cable first made the case for the British Business Bank, people were sceptical. We need to build on what has been achieved, he says.

One problem is the way risk is calculated. That militates against small firms, he says.

Clegg urges business to help get 1m more women into the workforce

Clegg says he wants one million more women to be in work by 2020 than today.

We have started to crack the glass ceiling, but we are still a long way from smashing it.

In Britain today, too many women find their talents are wasted.

Too many women still face a heart-breaking choice between pursuing their career and caring for their family.

And too many businesses let the status quo persist year after year.

If we’re going to smash the glass ceiling then we – government and business – need to be ambitious.

So today, I want us to think big. By the end of the next parliament, I want a million more women to be in work than there are today.

And he urges businesses to play their part in this.

There is only so much government can do. If we are to stand a chance of smashing that glass ceiling we need British business to hold the hammer.

My challenge to you is to embrace change. Embrace shared parental leave. Embrace flexible working. Close the gender pay gap.

If we can unlock the talents of women, British business will boom. We will be more innovative, more entrepreneurial, more dynamic.

We need to think big. We need to do things differently.

But, as any successful entrepreneur knows, that is exactly what it takes to succeed.

Nick Clegg is addressing the BCC conference now.

He starts by saying that, five years on from 2010, it is difficult to believe now that Britain could have suffered the same fate as Greece.

(Critics would point out that there is a reason why this is difficult to believe: because it’s not true. Clegg is making a point he has often made before, about Britain’s deficit level being similar to Greece’s in 2010. But the debt levels, and the underlying fundamentals of the economy, were quite different.)

Ed Balls was on the World at One. He told the programme he had no idea what the diary clash was that meant Ed Miliband could not attend the BCC conference and he accused the presenter, Shaun Ley, of “scraping the barrel of trivia”.

This is really scraping the barrel of trivia. Ed Miliband has spoken to the BCC twice in this Parliament, he spoke to the CBI a few months ago, he’s at the EEF in a few weeks’ time. I was there, as was Chuka Umunna, setting out a pro-wealth creation message, but pro-wealth creation which will change things so it works for working people. Now the Tories don’t want that debate, and they certainly don’t want to have a debate about HSBC or about their policies on Europe which are putting off investment and damaging jobs, so they are kind of making up these silly stories and I think you should know better.

Just for the sake of it, here’s Neil Kinnock’s “I warn you not to be ordinary” speech from the 1983 general election campaign.

And

Here are two interesting tweets on David Cameron’s speech.

From the journalist James Maxwell.

From the tax campaigner Richard Murphy

And here are two blogs on the speech that are interesting.

If higher wages were in firms’ individual interests, they would already have raised wages. If, on the other hand, they are in firms’ collective interests, we have a collective action problem. Even if each individual firm thought that it was in everyone’s interests to raise wages, it would not do so for fear that others would not follow with the result that it would have higher costs with no offsetting benefit in the form of higher demand or pro-business public opinion.

In either of these cases, Cameron’s speech is pointless. If a pay rise is in firms’ individual interests, it would have raised pay already. And if it is in their collective interests, each firm needs more than words to convince them to raise pay. For this reason, serious advocates of higher pay, such as the TUC, have called (pdf) for policy measures to force pay up, such as stronger union rights, full employment policies or a higher minimum wage.

If David Cameron continues his attacks on trade unions, then begging British businesses to award their workers a pay rise is about as useful as pointing to the sky and shouting ‘please don’t rain’ while simultaneously demolishing flood defences ...

In the UK, figures from the Department for Business Innovation and Skills show private sector trade unions earn 7 per cent more than their non-unionised counterparts, while in the public sector union members earn nearly 20 per cent more. Research from the European Trade Union Institute suggests that organised workers, often led by trade unions who can negotiate pay increases together, are much more effective at standing up to bosses who tell them they can’t afford to give their staff a pay rise (often while awarding themselves a six or seven figure bonus for cutting costs).

At the lobby briefing this morning David Cameron’s spokeswoman said ministers did not know about alleged tax evasion at HSBC’s Swiss arm until details emerged at the weekend.

This is from the Press Association.

Labour has sought to step up pressure on ministers, demanding chancellor George Osborne explain whether HSBC’s former chairman and chief executive Lord Green was asked about the activities of the its Swiss subsidiary prior to his appointment as minister for trade.

However a No 10 spokeswoman said neither Lord Green - who served as a coalition minister from 2011 to 2013 - nor any other member of the government had been aware of the allegations concerning wrongdoing by the bank.

“No government minister had any knowledge that HSBC may have been involved in wrongdoing in regard to its Swiss banking arm prior to the reports of the last couple of days,” the spokeswoman said.

Yet the BBC’s Ross Hawkins has spotted that Dave Hartnett, head of HMRC, told the Commons Treasury committee in 2011 that “the whole nation” knew about the leaked disc containing information about 6,000 account holders who were “ripe for investigation”.

Cameron's speech - Summary and analysis

Earlier this week YouGov’s Peter Kellner wrote an excellent analysis of Labour’s problem with business. He pointed out that, although voters largely agree with the party’s policy stance on business, they are suspicious of the party’s motives.

Business leaders, and bankers above all, are unpopular with millions of voters. A landslide victory beckons for any party that can persuade voters that it understands business and would curb its excesses, yet at the same time work with well-run companies to build a fairer and more prosperous Britain.

Miliband, together with Ed Balls, shadow chancellor, and Chuka Umunna, shadow business secretary, say that this describes Labour’s strategy exactly. The trouble is, voters don’t believe them. Like business leaders, they judge that Labour has moved to the Left, and that leading Labour politicians don’t really mean it when they say they are pro-business.

This helps to explain what David Cameron was up to today. In policy terms, he was on the defensive. He did not even mention the EU referendum in his speech - probably because, although the BCC is backing an early referendum, its total opposition to withdrawal from the EU means that Tory thinking makes it nervous - and he announced two policy ideas that both had a distinct Labourish feel to them. Yet - with his usual presentational flair - Cameron managed to trump this with rhetoric that was so gushingly pro-business that he must have wondered whether he was going over the top.

He set the tone right at the start. This was not so much as laying it on with a trowel, as dumping it on with a JCB.

When I see businesses on the move – expanding, succeeding – it quickens the pulse.

Yes, of course, I like what it all means – but I also deeply admire the people who make it happen.

As I go up and down the country – you may have seen me in the odd high vis jacket – I am inspired by what I see.

I see the ups and downs. I see the sacrifices it takes to succeed; the risks and rewards – the joy and the frustration.

Every time I lay a foundation stone, cut a ribbon, unveil a plaque, shake a hand, present an award, I see Britain coming back...

...and it fills my heart with pride to see what you have achieved these last five years.

See what I mean? I was not in the hall, so I did not see how this went down with the audience, but my guess is - rather well.

Anyway, here are the main points.

  • Cameron accused Miliband of abandoning the “long-held” pro-business consensus in British politics. Audaciously, he made this point by revealing his hitherto-undisclosed admiration for Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.

I want to say something very frank.

I’ve sat in parliament from 2001 to 2015.

For the first 9 years of that I had opposite me on those green benches Tony Blair and Gordon Brown - and whatever else we disagreed on, we agreed that business is the generator of growth.

That long-held consensus in British politics is now over.

This was one of several passages in the speech where he expressed his strong admiration for business (see above). And, imitating Neil Kinnock, he also claimed a Labour government would be terrible for business. (See 12.31pm.)

  • Cameron said a future Tory government would set up a Help to Grow fund to help 500 firms grow annually. Some £100m would be set aside in the budget to enable the British Business Bank to run a pilot, he said.

We need to think strategically about helping those small firms over the ‘valley of death’ funding gap so they can become medium firms - and the medium firms can become larger firms.

Cameron said the government would either use the government’s balance sheet to guarantee private loans, or co-invest public money alongside private money. He said he wanted to promote a British version of the German Mittelstand.

As we see in countries like Germany, with their Mittelstand of strong, well-financed, medium-sized businesses – this is where a lot of the growth and jobs comes from ...

I want Britain to have its own version of the German “Mittelstand” – a backbone of medium-sized firms which export, innovate, generate new jobs - and with our Help to Grow scheme, we will be there to back you.

This is an idea that sounds as it it could come straight out of a Labour manifesto. Many Labour thinkers are also deeply interested in the Mittelstand model.

  • He said the coalition was the first government in 40 years to cut the overall burden of regulation. This was equivalent to a “deregulation dividend” for business worth £2,000 per firm, he said.
  • He welcomed the fact that the BCC is backing an EU referendum. This is what he said during the Q&A.

Here we are with a big business audience led by one of the most important business organisations in the country and they are not saying ‘don’t have a renegotiation, don’t have a referendum, just stick your head in the ground and hope this issue goes away’. They are saying it is quite right to have a strategy that gives Britain the best chance of staying in a reformed European union that works in our interest.

  • He claimed that not having an EU referendum would increase the chances of Britain leaving the EU.

I think the danger of the alternative to what I’m suggesting is that Britain would just steadily drift towards the exits of the EU because the British public would not be taken along for this very, very important decision.

  • He claimed that, despite the cap on public sector pay rises, workers were getting increases through progression pay (the increases that come automatically with increased years of service). This came during the Q&A when he was asked why he was telling firms to give their workers a pay rise when the government was not doing the same for public sector workers. He replied:

Within the public sector we have actually seen quite a lot of pay increases through progression, through people taking on new skills and talking on new tasks.

And we have seen that take place, for instance in the NHS, so that people have had pay rises, in many cases year on year.

Updated

David Cameron’s Kinnock parody (see 12.31pm) has made it to the top of the World at One news. I guess that counts as “job done” for Cameron.

Summary coming soon.

Labour claims it has won a victory over mesothelioma compensation.

Updated

Cameron says the trading relationship with Nigeria is really important. He wants to strengthen it, including by using the Nigerian diaspora in the UK.

And that’s it. The Cameron speech is over.

I’ll post a summary soon.

Back to the Q&A.

Q: Why are you telling business leaders to increase pay when public sector pay is not going up. That’s not fair.

Cameron says we have to have a public sector we can afford.

In the public sector, people get progression pay, he says. They get pay rises year by year.

He says his message today is about how businesses should be able to pass on the benefits of growth to their staff.

Cameron attacks Miliband by parodying Kinnock

And here’s the quote from Cameron where he parodied Neil Kinnock to attack Ed Miliband.

A former party leader, back in the day, gave a famous warning.

Let me update it – and change the party.

I warn you.

I warn you not to grow your business – because they’ll come after you.

I warn you not to take people on – because they’ll slap taxes on you

I warn you not to create wealth – because they’ll demonise you

I warn you not to aspire to aspire, to work, to turn a profit, to build something better – because in their vision, you are the enemy...

...private sector ‘bad’; public sector ‘good’.

Updated

Here’s the quote from Cameron’s speech where he praised Tony Blair and Gordon Brown for being more pro-business than Ed Miliband.

I want to say something very frank.

I’ve sat in parliament from 2001 to 2015.

For the first nine years of that, I had opposite me on those green benches Tony Blair and Gordon Brown ...

... and whatever else we disagreed on, we agreed that business is the generator of growth.

That long-held consensus in British politics is now over.

Labour want to hike up corporation tax ...

... which new analysis shows could cost our economy over 96,000 jobs.

They’ve opposed every planning reform and every welfare reform.

They want to intervene in the market and fix prices.

Worst of all – Labour have no credible plan to deal with the deficit and get Britain back living within our means.

Updated

Q: Shouldn’t you be warning business that you might not get what you want on Europe, and that you might take the UK out of the EU by mistake?

Cameron says he would not put it like that.

He says the BCC is not saying don’t have a renegotiation, and don’t have a referendum. It is backing Cameron’s approach. Let’s get stuck in and have a negotiation, he says.

Businesses support this approach because in business everyone knows you have to have a plan.

The alternative would see Britain drifting towards exit, he says.

People under 50 have not had a say on Europe. They want a say on Europe.

Cameron says if women are excluded from business, as his wife would say, more than half of talent is being excluded.

The lobby briefing is over. It looks as if the government is backing down over its Labour/HSBC allegations.

Cameron's Q&A

Cameron is now taking questions.

Q: What will you do to support exports?

Cameron says the government will continue to back UKTI.

Cameron praises Blair and Brown for being more pro-business than Miliband

Cameron says, when he shadowed Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, at least they agreed that business needed to be supported.

But that consensus has been broken, he says.

Labour now wants to put up corporation tax.

  • Cameron accuses Ed Miliband of being more anti-business than Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.

And he parodies Neil Kinnock, saying “I warn you” etc about the implications of a Labour government for businesses.

Cameron says Tories would launch a Help to Grow scheme to help firms grow

Cameron says the next Conservative government would launch Help to Grow, a scheme to help small firms grow.

This would help them through the “valley of death” they face as they try to get established, he says.

  • Cameron says Tories would launch a Help to Grow scheme for firms.
  • Help to Grow would help 500 of the fastest growing firms a year, he says.
  • The British Business Bank will get £100m to pilot the scheme in the budget, he says.

Cameron says he wants to create a UK equivalent of the German Mittelstand.

Cameron says Conservatives would increase proportion of business rates councils can keep

Cameron says the Conservatives would increase the amount of business rates that councils can keep.

  • The Conservatives would allow councils to keep at least two thirds of revenue from business rates, up from a half, Cameron says.

Cameron says he has also taken steps to help firms export.

The Foreign Office has been refocused on business promotion, he says.

And he says he has taken business leaders abroad on many trade trips.

Cameron says, in the next parliament, the Conservatives would always grow capital investment in line with GDP.

The government has cut businesses taxes and cut regulation, he says.

This is the first government in 40 years that will finish with less regulation in place than when it started.

This amounts to a deregulation dividend worth £2,000 per business, he says.

Cameron says the government is putting in place the conditions that business needs to succeed.

David Cameron's BCC speech

David Cameron is speaking to the BCC now.

He says when he sees businesses succeeding, “it quickens the pulse”. He admires business figures, he says.

Matthew Elliott, chief executive of the Eurosceptic group, Business for Britain, says Ed Balls did not sound as if he thinks Labour will win the election.

Ed Balls even found time to comment on Christopher Hope’s tie.

Balls' speech, Q&A and interviews - Summary

After his speech and Q&A, Ed Balls gave interviews to BBC News and Sky. Here are the key points he’s been making.

Here’s the full text of the Balls speech.

As I said earlier, his most powerful point probably came during the Q&A, when he explained why he thought David Cameron was losing influence in Europe.

  • Balls suggested David Cameron could not achieve reform in Europe because fellow EU leaders did not think the Tories were serious anymore about Britain remaining a member. Stressing that Labour was committed to EU reform, Balls told the audience during the Q&A.

In the end what happens in Europe is people have to decide are you serious, or are you just playing politics. And if our European partners conclude we’re not actually in there for the long-term, trying to win those arguments and find that place for Britain, they will give up on us. And the lesson of European politics is, you never walk out of summits. You don’t go back to your parliament and slag off your European partners. You don’t let them think that in the end you’ve given up, and that you’re thinking about leaving, because if that happens, then you lose influence, and your lose your ability to win arguments. That is what is happening at the moment for Britain. I hear from business people, from the City and more widely all the time, we are being listened to less than we were before. And that is really dangerous.

  • He rejected the call from John Longworth, the BCC director general, for an early referendum on EU membership. (See 9.40am.) He said that achieving EU reform could take time and that setting 2016 as an arbitrary deadline could be “hugely destablising.”
  • He said it was “preposterous” for the Conservatives to suggest that he had questions to answer over what happened at HSBC when he was City minister.

The fact this is evidence of law breaking, of tax evasion and advice to people to avoid tax which first came to the attention of government in 2010. Now, George Osborne can try and divert attention away. The fact is, he was the chancellor when that information came to HMRC. And what did he do? And why did he and David Cameron, after that, make teh boss of HSBC a minister in the government. Now their accusation seems to me that, while the guy who was in charge of the whole bank, Mr Green, did not know about it in 2007, government ministers in the last Labour government somehow should have done, even though the evidence hadn’t been presented to government at all. It’s a preposterous claim and I think most people have seen it for what it is: an attempt to divert attention from a failure on behalf of the government.

I have to say, simply telling people they’ve never had it so good will only make working people feel that politicians are out of touch with the reality of their lives.

  • He reaffirmed Labour’s belief that leaving the EU would be disastrous. (See 10.017am.)
  • He said that complaints about Ed Miliband not attending the BCC conference were “trivial”. Miliband had attended this conference many times before, and Balls and Chuka Umunna, the shadow business secretary, were here today, Balls said.
  • He said Labour would make “a swift decision” in response to the report from the Davies Commission due after the general election recommending either Heathrow or Gatwick expansion.

After years of kicking this into the long grass, we will make a swift decision to expand airport capacity in the south-east, while taking into account environmental concerns, when the Davies report is complete.

You’ll notice that he did not actually commit Labour to accepting the report’s recommendation. To my ears, that line about “taking into account environmental concerns” sounded like wriggle room to allow Labour to go for a second runway at Gatwick if Davies recommends a third runway at Heathrow.

  • He said it would be “deeply foolish” to say that the future of the union with Scotland is secure.
  • He said he believed in markets and wealth creation.

I believe in the power of markets and incentives to create wealth and good jobs.

But I know too that markets don’t, by themselves, deliver the long-term investment in ideas, skills and infrastructure that modern economies need.

  • He said that Simon Franks, the founder of Rebus Group and LoveFilm, would conduct a review for Labour into how to improve support for early stage and high growth businesses.

Updated

In his question to Ed Balls (see 10.55am), Nick Robinson said Lord Mandelson had warned today that Labour must not be seen as anti-business.

As the BBC reports, this is what Mandelson actually said.

You must never use language or even body language, let alone what you say, that creates the impression that you are for or against any section of society of the economy. We need people working together, there has to be a collaboration between business and government, between politicians and entrepreneurs.

The speech and the Q&A were over.

The speech was solid, but unremarkable, but the Q&A was good. Balls’ answer to the first question (see 10.55am) was particularly strong. I’ll post a summary shortly.

Balls' Q&A

Balls is now taking questions.

Q: What is your backup strategy if you do not get EU reform?

Balls says reform will be hugely difficult. He won’t deny it is a big task.

Not joining the single currency was one of the most important decisions made by the UK in decades, he says.

In Europe people want to know if you are serious, or if you are just playing politics. There is a danger that people in the EU will decide Britain is not serious about reform. In the EU you should never walk out of summits, or go back to parliament to slag off your colleagues.

The government has implied that it has given up already.

Q: So the answer is that there is no backup policy?

No, the answer is that you don’t give up, says Balls.

If you demand reform, but won’t says what reform you want, people will think you are not serious, he says.

Q: [From the BBC’s Nick Robinson] What evidence is there that the government’s proposed EU referendum is creating uncertainty and putting jobs at risk? And what do you say to the BCC’s call for an early referendum?

Balls says we have had a slow recovery. Export performance has been poor. There is a real danger that businesses are delaying big decisions because of uncertainty about Britain’s future in the EU.

Setting an arbitrary timetable for a quick referendum would be a mistake, he says. It could be “hugely destabilising”.

He says Labour has set out more detail of the EU reforms it wants than any other party. But these changes will take time.

Q: What will you do to promote vocational education?

Balls says the English baccalaureate is narrowing education too much up to the age of 16. Children need more skills like teamwork.

Q: Why should we trust you after Labour’s record on the crash?

Balls says there was a global recession. Banking regulation was not tight enough beforehand, but the Labour government was under constant pressure to regulate less.

Updated

Balls confirms Labour’s support for the mansion tax. He does not expect people to celebrate paying another £250 a month, he says. But raising this money for the NHS is necessary, he says.

Balls is now setting out the features of Labour’s industrial policy. The party is committed to expanding airport capacity in the south east, and it will make a swift decision on responding to the Davies Commission recommendations, subject to environmental concerns, he says.

And he confirms that Labour would block a proposed further cut in corporation tax, so that it could use the money to cut business rates for small businesses.

Updated

Balls says people are not seeing the advantages of economic recovery.

Working people are now £1600 a year worse off since 2010. This is set to be the first time since the 1920s when working people are worse off at the end of the Parliament than they were at the beginning.

So at a time when, even as our economy recovers, most people are not yet seeing the benefit in their wages and living standards, this is no time for complacency.

If we are to win the argument that Britain can succeed in an open global economy, we have to show that our economy can deliver rising prosperity for everyone who works hard and plays by the rules. And that is not what people think is happening in our country at the moment.

Balls says simply telling people that they have never had it so good will reinforce the idea that politicians are out of touch. (That’s a jibe at David Cameron.)

Updated

Ed Balls speech

Ed Balls is now speaking at the BCC conference.

He says he hopes the politicians addressing the conference today will not offer partisanship and sloganeering, but constructive ideas about the country’s economic future.

Some people in the audience will be Conservative supporters. Some will be Labour supporters. There might even be a Lib Dem, he says.

But, in his experience, he says, most business figures are not interested in party politics; they are more interested in having a constructive relationship with government.

Labour demands answers from Treasury over HSBC and Lord Green

Labour is keeping up the pressure on the government over the HSBC tax avoidance revelations. Shabana Mahmood, the shadow Treasury minister, has written an open letter to George Osborne, the chancellor, with a series of “Who knew what when?” questions.

Here’s an extract.

Lord Stephen Green was chairman of HSBC 2006-2010 and was appointed a Conservative peer in September 2010 and then as trade minister by David Cameron in January 2011.

Given that, as the financial secretary said yesterday, the government was made aware of allegations of wrongdoing against HSBC in May 2010, eight months before Mr Green’s appointment to government, failure to ask probing questions would have to be seen as wilfully negligent. As chairman of the Bank, Mr Green would either have been aware of malpractice or, if not, surely questions would arise as to why not and his fitness for such a senior government post of trade minister.

Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor, has not given his speech to the BCC yet, but Labour has released some extracts from his speech already.

Like John Longworth, the BCC director general (see 9.40am), Balls agrees that “uncertainty” about Britain’s future in Europe is bad for business. But Balls says it is Tory policies that are generating this.

  • Balls says the prospect of the UK leaving the EU is the biggest risk to the economy over the next 10 years.

To walk away from Europe - our biggest trading market - would be a disaster for Britain ...

Britain walking out of the EU is the biggest risk to our economy in the next decade. EU exit risks British jobs, trade and investment and the future prosperity of the UK.

  • He says Tory calls for an early referendum, or Tory claims that Britain would thrive outside the EU, are increasing uncertainty.

Every comment by senior cabinet ministers saying they would be happy or relaxed to see us walk out, and every hint that a referendum could happen as early as next year - before any meaningful reform agenda could be achieved - only adds to the uncertainty and risk for British businesses.

  • He says Labour favours EU reform.

Britain must lead the debate for reform in the EU. Banging the table for change and for the EU to work better for Britain. But not flirting with exit and putting party interest above the national economic interest.

  • He says Labour is pro-business, but not pro business as usual.

Pro-business, but not business as usual. Promoting competition, not turning a blind eye to bad practice. Supporting wealth creation, but making sure everyone pays their fair share.

My colleague Owen Bowcott has filed a story on the European Court of Human Rights’ ruling on prisoner voting.

Here’s an excerpt.

The coalition government is not planning to take any further action on prisoner voting before the general election in May 2015. Conservative policy, if the party wins the election, will be to treat judgments from the ECHR merely as advisory. It has threatened to withdraw from the European convention on human rights if the Strasbourg court is unwilling to agree to its approach.

BCC chief says not having an EU referendum would prolong uncertainty

John Longworth, the director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, was on the Today programme earlier. He has also given an interview to the Financial Times (subscription). Here are the key points he has been making.

  • Longworth said that there definitely should be a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU - but that it should take place sooner than David Cameron is planning. Longworth said that waiting until 2017 to hold the referendum would prolong uncertainty, and that that would be bad for business. (See 8.58am.) But he also said that Labour’s policy of not guaranteeing a referendum would also generate uncertainty.

We’ve done business surveys over a long period of time. Our members say they want a referendum. There is, obviously, a debate about the referendum at the moment, it’s in the political agenda and creating uncertainty, so if we are going to have a referendum, we ought to do it quickly. If the Labour party are elected, of course, who do not want a referendum, they will be under huge pressure to have one, which will create uncertainty. We have to come to a conclusion on these things and move on.

Uncertainty is bad for business, and as long as uncertainty continues, that will not be a good thing. If parties are under pressure to have a referendum and it’s not clear whether they are going to give in or not, that in itself creates uncertainty.

  • He said businesses want Britain to stay in the EU. This is what he told the BBC.

Our members overwhelmingly want to stay within the European Union trading bloc. They also do not want to join the eurozone, and they do not want any further integration. Those things have to be reconciled. We would be in a bad position if we were in Europe, but all the decisions were made for and by the eurozone.

But, in his speech to the BCC conference, he will also stress that businesses want to see the EU reformed.

Without true reform, business support for the European project is far from guaranteed. A new settlement for Britain in Europe is essential to achieving our economic ambitions - helping our businesses succeed here at home, and across the world.

  • He told the BBC that businesses were starting to give their workers a pay rise.

As I go around the country and the economy picks up I see businesses giving pay rises. It helps spread the benefits of economic growth. I’m expecting to see increasing wage rises.

  • He told the FT that he did not know what the government’s long-term economic plan was.

Do you know what it is? No? Exactly. Neither do I. They have done a lot of things, the current government, which have been pro-enterprise but we don’t really know what the plan is for the next parliament.

ECHR rules against the UK again over prisoner voting

The Press Association has just snapped this.

The rights of 1,015 UK prisoners were breached when they were prevented from voting in elections, the European Court of Human Rights has ruled.

I’ll post more details when I get them.

There is nothing particularly new about the ECHR declaring the UK’s ban on prisoners voting illegal. Several other judgments have said the same thing (that a blanket ban is illegal - the ECHR would happily accept a partial ban). The UK is supposed to comply with ECHR rulings, but the coalition government, like the previous Labour government, is doing all it can to delay taking action, and effectively the court and the UK government are at loggerheads over this.

The Press Association has filed a useful Q&A on David Cameron’s call for firms to give their workers a pay rise. Here it is

What is happening to wages?

Annual pay growth outpaced inflation for the third month in a row in November, with the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics showing that average earnings increased by 1.7% in the year to November, up by 0.3% on the previous month.

Is everyone benefiting?

The improvement is largely due to the return of pay hikes in the financial sector, which is showing an annual rate of growth of 2.6%. The Work Foundation said that in manufacturing the rate of pay increase has declined in recent months and now stands at 1.1%. The TUC warns that, at the current rate of progress, it will still be at least another parliament before wages are back to where they were before the financial crisis. It points out that households are still far worse off today than they were five years ago.

Will the improvement in pay growth continue?

Economists think that the real wage recovery should keep gathering pace given that inflation is still falling and nominal earnings growth is likely to accelerate further as the labour market tightens. However they warn that wage growth will only be sustainable if it is matched by increased productivity.

What about the cost of living?

Latest figures showed CPI inflation fell to 0.5% in December, equalling its lowest level on record and driven down by tumbling oil prices as well as the supermarket price war. There is likely to be further downward pressure as household energy tariffs are cut, meaning that the Bank of England might make its first ever forecast of “outright deflation” for the second quarter of this year.

Should we be worried if inflation turns negative?

The fear amongst politicians and at the Bank of England is that the recent drop in inflation might become more persistent and result in a lowering of inflation expectations and pay growth. The Bank is due to update its forecasts later this week but a bout of negative inflation could arrive at the time of year when a large proportion of pay claims are settled, possibly boosting the chances of a self-perpetuating deflationary spiral.

Updated

Westminster is paying homage to business today. It’s the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) annual conference, and David Cameron, Ed Balls and Nick Clegg are among the senior politicians speaking at the busy event. The full programme is here.

As Downing Street revealed overnight, Cameron will urge business leaders to give workers a pay rise.

Put simply – it’s time Britain had a pay rise ...

Now that your costs are falling and it’s cheaper to do business – I’m confident that more businesses will pass on that good economic news to their workers, in rising pay cheques and higher earnings.

That’s good for your employees, it’s good for you to have happier and more productive staff, and frankly it’s good for anyone who wants to make the argument for business.

Because for us business is not a conspiracy of runaway profits, depressed wages, inequality and unfairness, it is the best generator of growth, wealth, work and opportunity there is.

And there would be no better way to demonstrate that right now than to give Britain a pay rise.

And, this morning, John Longworth, the BCC director general, has told the Today programme that business wants the referendum on EU membership that Cameron is proposing for 2017 to take place earlier. Longworth said:

We need to bring the referendum date forward because two and a half years of uncertainty isn’t good for growth and investment. It should be no more than 12 months after the general election.

I’ll be posting more from Longworth’s interview shortly, as well as covering the conference speeches in detail.

Here’s the agenda for the day.

9.15am: British Chambers of Commerce conference opens. Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor, speaks in the morning session. David Cameron and Nick Clegg are speaking later.

10am: Martin Wheatley, chief executive of the Financial Conduct Authority, gives evidence to the Commons Treasury committee.

10.40am: Former Ofsted officials give evidence to the Commons communities committee about the Rotherham child abuse scandal.

11.30am: Nick Clegg takes deputy prime minister’s questions in the Commons.

2pm: Brandon Lewis, the housing minister, speaks at the British Property Federation conference.

2.30pm: David Smith, the former City Link chief executive, gives evidence to the Commons business and Scottish affairs committees about the firm’s collapse.

2.45pm: James Brokenshire, the immigration minister, gives evidence to the home affairs committee.

As usual, I will be also covering all the breaking political news from Westminster, as well as bringing you the most interesting political comment and analysis from the web and from Twitter. I will post a summary at lunchtime and another in the afternoon.

If you want to follow me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow

Updated

 

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