The former hedge fund boss Crispin Odey has been given two weeks to pay a £1.5m fine to the FCA, after deciding not to appeal a court ruling that left him banned from the City for trying to derail investigations into sexual harassment allegations against him.

Odey dragged the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to court in March this year, in an effort to have the ban overturned. He ultimately lost that challenge, with judges at the UK’s upper tribunal having upheld the FCA’s original decision to ban him from holding any senior roles across the UK financial sector last month.

Odey had two weeks to decide whether to appeal the upper tribunal’s ruling and pursue another case at the supreme court.

The FCA confirmed on Thursday that Odey has chosen not to appeal the decision and has given him until 14 October to pay his £1.5m fine.

Allegations against Odey by female members of staff came to light after Odey Asset Manament launched an internal investigation into sexual harassment at the business in September 2020. Odey, who resigned in 2023 after the allegations were reported in the media, tried to block executives of his hedge fund from taking any action, including by twice firing its entire executive committee (ExCo).

“He misused his power as controller to remove the ExCos as a means to protect his own interests and attempt to achieve his objectives,” the upper tribunal ruling said last month.

The judges also said the Brexit-backing hedge fund chief failed to acknowledge any potential harm during the March hearing. “He has expressed no contrition,” they said. “He sees nothing wrong with his approach, and indeed he wrongly sees himself as the victim.”

Ouch! US borrowing costs have hit a 24-year high, as investors grow more anxious about inflation, future interest rate rises, and government borrowing levels.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries has hit its highest level since April 2002, hitting 5.344%.

Longer-dated debt is also weakening, wit the yield on 30-year Treasury bills rising over 5.67% and hitting its highst since May 2002.

US yields weakened as the oil price rose 3% today, over $100 a barrel, as investors refused to be cheered by encouraging economic data showing that US job losses remained low and that construction activity continues to rise.

UK chancellor John Healey has reportedly called in the bosses of Britain’s biggest banks for a pre-budget summit.

According to Sky News, the heads of Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group, NatWest Group, Santander UK and Nationwide have all been invited to attend the meeting, next Tuesday.

The meeting comes as Healey faces rising pressures to keep within the government’s fiscal rules, as the ongoing bond market sell-off pushes up borrowing costs.

There have also been several calls for higher taxes on UK banks, to fund spending commitments such as defence and welfare.

One of the more hawkish members of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee is continuing to argue for higher interest rates today.

Catherine Mann is telling an audience at the Nomura London Macro Forum that she believes the Bank’s current monetary policy stance is not sufficiently tight.

Mann is one of three policymakers who were outvoted by the other six members of the MPC last month, when it left interest rates on hold.

Mann is explaining that the Bank cannot rely on the financial markets to tighten financial conditions, and should bite the bullet by lifting borrowing costs.

She argues that the “rising upside risks to inflation” mean that a risk management strategy to monetary policy is appropriate.

She explains:

As a monetary policymaker, I cannot take comfort from tighter nominal financial conditions when much of that tightening reflects a higher inflation risk premium and, possibly, a monetary policy uncertainty premium that our own decisions and communications may have contributed to.

These premia raise nominal yields without necessarily tightening the real financial conditions that matter for demand and inflation. In my view, real financial conditions are insufficiently tight. The appropriate response therefore is not to rely on risk premia to do the work of policy, but to reduce inflation risk and policy uncertainty through a clearly communicated reaction function and a sufficiently restrictive path for Bank Rate.

With the markets a little calmer, we can focus elsewhere… including on the UK’s energy market.

The creation of the country’s largest electricity provider has been given the green light by regulators, who have decided not to put German firm E.On‘s takeover of Ovo under more scrutiny.

The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has announced that it will not refer the proposed acquisition for a second, more detailed phase of investigation.

The combined company will supply about 9.6 million customers, overtaking the market leader, Octopus, which serves almost 8m homes in the UK.

The sell-off in the bond markets has eased a little.

The yield, or rate of return, on UK 30-year bonds has dipped away from the 28-year high hit earlier this morning; it’s back below the 6% level, at 5.94%.

This is helping equity markets to recover some of their earlier losses too – the UK’s FTSE 100 share index is now down 125 points or -1.2%, having hit a three-month low earlier today.

Over in the US, company layoffs have slowed – suggesting America’s labor market is holding up well.

US-based employers announced 43,281 job cuts in September, an 18% drop compared with the 52,881 announced in August, and the lowest total for any September since 2022.

Andy Challenger, workplace expert and chief revenue officer for Challenger, Gray & Christmas, explains:

Companies are in a wait-and-see period right now. Employers are facing high energy costs, an uncertain war in Iran, a rate hike that could make hiring more expensive, plus the liklihood of surging healthcare costs.

We’ve seen layoff activity subside over this year, and September continues to illustrate this point.

Bloomberg are reporting that Chinese fuel exporters have “canceled some oil-product cargoes slated for export in October”, which sounds less serious than the full suspension of exports flagged in the previous post.

But either way, it highlights the risks of shortages of petroleum products, which is likely to fuel inflation.

And the situation could get worse for Europe! There are reports that the Trump administration has told Germany and France to draw down emergency diesel inventories to help to ease global fuel prices or face a potential US diesel export ban.

The oil price is rising this morning, following reports that China has suspended oil products exports.

According to Reuters, Chinese refiners have suspended exports of oil products to regions beyond Hong Kong and Macau until further notice.

This could lead to fresh stress in global fuel markets, where diesel prices have already been hitting record highs in some countries (including the UK).

Brent crude is now up 2.7% today, at $100.66 a barrel.

The dollar is strengthening amid the turmoil in markets today.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, has gained 0.36% this morning.

This rally has driven the euro down to a 17-month low, falling below the $1.13 mark for the first time since May 2025.

Just in: The rate of growth across UK manufacturing slowed last month.

Data provider S&P Global has reported that output growth slowed for a second month in a row at UK factories in September.

And worryingly, factory bosses also reported that input price inflation – which measures the cost of their raw materials - accelerated for the first time in four months. That prompted them to raise their own prices.

This suggests no respite to the inflationary pressures which are rocking the bond market today.

Rob Dobson, director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, says:

“A disappointing September PMI saw the rate of increase in UK manufacturing production slow further.

Output growth was its weakest seen over the past six months, with orders and exports growing only modestly. Slower demand growth was to be expected given the higher energy prices seen during the month.”

Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, has warned that the bond market sell off is gathering pace today.

She cites several factors, including concerns over US government spending and the rising oil price:

Global bonds sold off more than 2% in September, the most since 2024, after Donald Trump was elected for a second term. Back then, bonds sold off due to Trump’s expected expansionary fiscal policy. Today, bonds are selling off on the back of his foreign policy, as well as his fiscal largess.

While bond markets are pricing in stronger growth across the developed world, there is also the realization that there is now a structural premium attached to the oil price and to refined products. This will keep prices elevated for the long term, as it does not appear that a neat diplomatic solution to the war in the Middle East will be reached any time soon.

This is playing out in the sovereign bond market, and the sell off in bonds is happening at the same time as the oil price is rising. Brent crude is back above $100 per barrel today, which is a significant psychological level, in the same way, a 6% yield on a 30-year Gilt is also significant.

European stock markets are sliding sharply, as the sell-off in the bond market hit equities.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index has slumped by 1.2% this morning, with losses of at least 1% in Germany, Paris, Madrid and Milan, as well as London.

Britain’s FTSE 100 index is leading the rout, indeed – the blue-chip index is now down 1.9% or 201 points. That would be its biggest one-day fall since March.

Investors are clearly concerned by the tumble in bond prices today.

Neil Wilson, Saxo UK investor strategist, says:

This could be a significant moment for the market as the pressure build-up in the bond market is finally hitting equities.

Selling in bonds is heavy across the board and the US 10yr has just taken out its highest since 2002 above 5.33% and the UK 30yr gilt has just broken 6%, its highest since 1998....there is carnage in the bond market which is hitting stocks hard.

Worryingly for Paris, the difference between French and German borrowing costs has widened to a 14-year high this morning.

The gap between French and German government bond yields – a market gauge of the risk premium investors demand to hold French debt - was at 127.51 bps, after reaching 128.80 bps, its highest level since June 2012, Reuters reports.

Mohit Kumar, economist at Jefferies, cites worries about the amount of debt being issued to fund government deficits, as well as inflation concerns, telling clients:

Inflation, deficit and issuance concerns continue to weigh on the bond market.

There is also a buyers strike on the street as investors do not want to step in till we get some form of stability. Hedge Funds have suffered in the latest round of sell-off and do not have the risk appetite to fade the move. Real money, potentially has the risk appetite, but won’t step in till we get some stability.

The bond market is “flashing warning lights”, says Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club:

“The bond market is adding to the pressure cooker ahead of the UK Budget, with the 10-year gilt yield climbing to around 5.49%, the highest level since July 2007.

The warning lights are flashing in a week when the government paid the highest yield on a 10-year gilt auction since 1999, underlining how much more expensive it is becoming to borrow. With debt already high and interest payments eating up a hefty chunk of public finances, sustained yields at these levels could further squeeze the Chancellor’s wiggle room when he sets out his spending plans.

Another bout of turmoil in the bond markets is driving up government borrowing costs across the world, and the UK is in the firing line.

Bond prices are falling, which pushes up the yield – or rate of return – on the debt.

And just a moment ago, the yield on Britain’s 30-year gilts hit 6% for the first time since 1998.

The yield on shorter-dated UK bonds are also rising, which will drive up London’s borrowing costs and add to the pressure on chancellor John Healey ahead of the budget later this month.

The bond sell-off is being driven by fears of high inflation, as the Middle East conflict continues to restrict oil supplies from the region.

Last night, US 10-year Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2002, and earlier today Japan’s 10-year bond yield rose towards the 30-year high set last month.

US bonds weakened despite a lower than expected US inflation reading yesterday, which could have calmed investors’ nerves.

But instead, traders remain anxious that the US Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates to fight inflation.

Axel Rudolph, chief technical analyst at investing and trading platform IG, explains:

“US bond yields are refusing to budge, with the 10-year yield hitting its highest level since 2007 despite softer-than-expected inflation.

While the latest data has reduced expectations of an October Fed rate hike, investors remain wary that persistent inflation and higher oil prices could keep rates elevated for longer. The dollar is benefiting from that caution, climbing to a three-month high, while the prospect of a December rate increase keeps pressure on bond markets.

The London stock market has got off to a bad start to the month.

The FTSE 100 share index has dropped by 116 points, or 1.1%, at the start of trading to 10,489 points.

British American Tobacco (-3.2%) and engineering company Weir (-2.7%) are the top fallers.

House price growth slowed in most UK regions over the last three months, Nationwide reports.

Prices dropped, year-on-year, in four regions – the Outer Metropolitan area outside London, South West England, the East Midlands and East Anglia.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

The rate of annual house price growth across the UK has halved, according to lender Nationwide this morning, as rising mortgage rates cool the market.

Nationwide’s latest gauge of house prices shows that prices fell by 0.2% in September, dragging annual house price growth down to 0.8%, the weakest rate of growth since December 2025. That’s down from 1.6% in August.

This is weaker than the City expected: Economists polled by Reuters had forecast prices would be flat on the month and rise by 1.3% year-on-year.

The average price of a home across the country slipped to £274,251 last month.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, attributed the slowdown on recent increases in mortgage rates from lenders:

“Market activity and house prices have remained subdued in recent months, in part reflecting the uncertain economic backdrop. Geopolitical tensions remain high, with the conflict in the Middle East exerting upward pressure on energy prices, fanning inflation concerns.

This in turn has led to mounting financial market expectations of Bank Rate increases, which has maintained upward pressure on the market interest rates which underpin mortgage pricing.

Yesterday, Moneyfacts reported that the average two-year fixed residential mortgage rate is at its highest since July 2024, while the average five-year is at its highest since 10 October 2023 – with both rates above 5.9%.

Nationwide also reports that prices rose by fastest in Northern Ireland (where prices have risen 5.9% year on year), while East Anglia was the weakest performing region, with annual decline of 0.7%.

The agenda

• 7am BST: Nationwide’s house price index

• 9am BST: Eurozone manufacturing PMI for September

• 9.30am BST: UK manufacturing PMI for September

• 10.30am US Challenger Job Cuts

• 3pm BST: US manufacturing PMI for September