Time to wrap up…

Ryanair has said it is considering implementing pay freezes, setting the scene for a confrontation with unions as the airline tries to offset soaring fuel costs driven by the Middle East conflict.

The airline is also considering reducing crew numbers on flights and increasing the use of AI, in a cost-cutting drive.

Europe’s largest low-cost carrier said it expected European airlines to raise ticket prices by up to 20%, with its own jet fuel costs forecast to rise by about €2bn (£1.6bn) in its next financial year, which ends in March 2028.

Supermarket chains in Sweden, Belgium and Luxembourg have said the temperatures of their refrigerators and freezers in dozens of stores rose overnight, prompting fears of a cyber-attack similar to one that caused millions of euros of food losses in France.

Sweden’s Coop chain told the daily Aftonbladet on Monday that six of ​its stores ‌had been ​affected, while ICA said it was “aware that a limited ​number of stores were affected by an incident overnight which impacted their refrigeration and freezer systems”.

Sales at the UK’s largest brickmaker plunged by more than a fifth over the summer, as it criticised the government for not introducing fresh help for the housing sector faster.

Leicestershire-based Ibstock said on Monday that sales slumped by 22% below its expectations in the three months to the end of September, prompting it to slash production levels by a fifth.

Ibstock issued its second profit warning this year and said UK brick market volumes declined by 17% year on year in July and August, with weak market conditions continuing through September and October.

Anthropic revenues hit $17bn (£12.7bn) in revenue in its third quarter – 12 times higher than the same period last year.

The developer behind the AI platform Claude said it made a $23.3bn net loss in the three months ended in September, compared with a $12.1bn net loss in the same period last year, according to a filing it has made today with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

It comes as anticipation builds for Anthropic’s blockbuster IPO. The company filed on 26 October, and it is expected to join the stock market before Thanksgiving in the US. Reports suggest that the developer wants to meet or exceed the amount SpaceX raised in its $86.2bn debut, and investors have suggested that it could be worth as much as $1.5trn.

The US stock market is rising today as investors rejoice at the lower oil price. The blue chip S&P 500 has opened up 0.45%, while the tech heavy Nasdaq index is up 0.63%.

Investors will be hoping that last week’s rout in AI stocks is over for now – especially as they will also looking at US politics this week, with the results of the US midterm elections.

Back in the financial markets, the oil price is falling more sharply as hopes build for a breakthrough to end the Iran war.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, has fallen below $106 a barrel for the first time since 20 October.

That’s nearly a two-week low, and 9% below Brent’s closing price last Friday night.

Oil prices began falling after Iran’s supreme leader gave the government approval to pursue talks that could resolve the months-long conflict roiling Middle East supplies, according to Bloomberg.

On Sunday, president Trump told a radio network that the war will soon be over “one way or the other … either they’ll make a deal, or we’ll just end it.”

David Morrison, senior market analyst at fintech and financial services provider Trade Nation, says there are still concerns that the conflict could flare up again.

Shipping across the region continues to come under threat from both Iran and Iranian-backed Yemeni Houthis. Meanwhile, global strategic reserves have been drawn down, so there’s little to act as a buffer here.

On the plus side, mediators from Qatar continue to talk to Iranian officials. But with the Israeli election concluding last week, and the US midterms over tomorrow, there are concerns that President Trump may follow through on his threat to reengage Iran militarily.

Binance has sought to reassure its customers with a proof of reserves snapshot, which its users can now independently verify.

The crypto exchange has shared the proof of its latest reserves snapshot – which was shared on 31st October – so that Binance customers holding Bitcoin, Etherum, Tether, BNB, Solana, USD Coin, XRP, USD1, Ripple USD, or Zcash can independently verify their balances on the platform are backed at a minimum ratio of 1:1.

It wrote on X:

We plan to take another snapshot with coverage for more tokens on 2026-11-04. We will then generate an updated full zero-knowledge proof, which we estimate will take approximately 40 to 50 hours to complete due to the computational workload.

…Binance has covered approximately 95% of the impacted amount. The outstanding 5% consists of tokens not included in the top ten listed above. These assets are less liquid, and take longer to source at the required scale. We continue working with industry partners to complete the remaining acquisitions.

We are also working to resume withdrawals for additional networks and assets. The next phase is planned for tomorrow — this will be a progressive rollout and we will share the details once ready.

Our commitment is unchanged: Binance will absorb the financial impact of the stolen funds, not our users. With the generated proof, the backed portion of that commitment is now publicly verifiable.

Marvell Technology has agreed to buy the datacentre optics maker Lumentum for a whopping $115bn, as it races to take the lead in developing technology critical to powering AI infrastructure.

The $170bn Marvell has capitalised on a boom in demand to develop custom AI chips and networking technology for datacentres.

Meanwhile Lumentum, which competes with the US-listed Coherent and China’s Zhongji Innolight, stands to benefit from a proposed US ban on new Chinese optical transceivers, that could bolster demand for US domestic suppliers.

Matt Murphy, chair and CEO of Marvell, said:

AI infrastructure is undergoing a fundamental architectural shift toward optical connectivity, creating an opportunity that comes along once in a generation.

The companies that move first and help define this transition will set the standard for decades to come. By bringing together two leaders with highly complementary technologies, exceptional talent and specialized manufacturing capabilities, we intend to help shape the next era of AI connectivity and create exceptional stockholder value.

Michael Hurlston, president and CEO of Lumentum, said:

Joining Marvell creates a company uniquely positioned to capitalize on a market opportunity of $550 billion and generate significant, sustainable stockholder value.

Surging AI data traffic requires rapid hardware innovation, and this combination enhances our ability to deliver next-generation solutions at scale. Together with Marvell, we will meet our customers’ complete interconnect needs, spanning scale-across and scale-out today to scale-up and scale-in domains tomorrow.

By offering extreme co-design around our customers’ demanding requirements, we will help them achieve faster time to market, accelerated innovation cycles and category-defining performance.”

Since reports first emerged of Marvell-Lumentum talks last month, Marvell shares have dropped by more than 20%. But it is up 4% in pre-market trading, and Lumentum is posed to rise by 2.5%.

Under the all-stock deal, Lumentum shareholders will receive a fixed exchange ratio of 4.500 shares of Marvell common stock for each share of Lumentum common stock. It means Lumentum investors will own about 33% of the combined company.

The deal is expected to complete in the first half of next year, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals. After it completes, three Lumentum directors, including Hurlston, will join Marvell’s board, which is currently made up of seven directors.

Sales at the UK’s largest brickmaker plunged by more than a fifth over the summer, as it criticised the government for not introducing fresh help for the housing sector faster.

Leicestershire-based Ibstock said on Monday that sales slumped by 22% below its expectations in the quarter to the end of September, prompting it to slash production levels by a fifth.

Ibstock issued its second profit warning this year and said that UK brick market volumes declined by 17% year on year in July and August, with weak market conditions continuing through September and October.

Chief executive Joe Hudson said:

Trading conditions deteriorated sharply during the third quarter, with weakness continuing into October.

We have responded by reducing production to manage inventory, taking further cost action and maintaining tight control of cash. These production decisions create an additional near-term earnings headwind but are necessary to align output with demand.”

Freezers at Belgian and Swedish supermarkets have suddenly overheated, just weeks after French grocers were targeted in a cyber attack.

Local media are reporting that Ica and Coop shops in Sweden hit as high as 55C on Monday. Ahold Delhaize supermarkets were also affected in Belgium. Delhaize has described it as an “IT incident” to Dutch paper HLN and Flemish TV network VTM Nieuws.

It comes just weeks after forced the temperature of many French supermarket fridges up to 50C overnight, in a cyber-attack affecting several hundred stores across the country, with fires and food losses reported.

The Paris prosecutor’s office said ⁠the large-scale attack was “affecting connected refrigerators ⁠in several ​major food retailers across France”.

Oil has now slipped below $110 a barrel, as investors digest reports of talks between Iranian and Qatari officials to end the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Reuters has reported that Iranian negotiators left Doha talks on Sunday, but not due to difficulties in negotiations.

Axios reported on Sunday that US president Donald Trump told the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he wants to let negotiations with Iran play out before potentially launching strikes against the country after midterm elections on Tuesday.

Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, is trading at $108.65 a barrel.

UK manufacturing growth hit a five-month high in October, according to the latest purchasing managers’ index from S&P Global.

The index rose to 52.8 in October, up from 51.9 in September and in line with estimates.

Rob Dobson, director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that manufacturing had shown resilience in the lead up to the autumn budget last week. He said:

Rates of growth in output and new orders both gathered pace in October, as companies responded to signs of improving demand in both domestic and overseas markets, including new work received from mainland China, the EU and the US.

Concerns about possible policy changes filtered through to the labour market, however, with the upturn in employee numbers halting following a six-month sequence of increased hirings. The remainder of 2026 will see if the confirmed rise in the minimum wage for next year will continue to weigh on employment trends.

Rising labour costs are also coming at a time when the cost environment is already generally high. As well as higher wage costs, manufacturers are being buffeted by rising fuel, energy and transportation costs as supply chain shocks and delays continued to drive up inflationary pressures. Input prices consequently rose to one of the greatest extents in the past four years in October which, alongside the signs of resilience in the manufacturing sector, will further shorten the odds of interest rate hikes to come from the Bank of England.

However the survey also found that business optimism rose to an eight-month high in October. Manufacturers said that they were optimistic as they planned for business expansions and spending on capital equipment and AI, including data centres.

Ryanair is considering cost-cutting measures including implementing pay freezes, reducing crew on flights and increasing the use of AI to offset soaring fuel costs from the impact of the Middle East conflict.

Europe’s biggest low-cost carrier said on Monday that it expects European airlines to raise their ticket prices by as much as 20%, as it anticipates its jet-fuel costs will increase by around €2bn in its next financial year that ends in March 2028.

Michael O’Leary, chief executive of Ryanair, said:

Unless there is a swift resolution of the Middle East conflict we expect jet-fuel prices to remain elevated well into 2027.

While we believe European short haul fares will increase materially to reflect these much higher jet-fuel prices and competitor capacity reductions, this is unlikely to provide a full offset for an estimated €2bn increase in our fuel bill.”

Ryanair said that it expects European short haul fares will “increase materially” next year as a result, as the oil hedging deals taken out by airlines to reduce costs come to an end.

O’Leary said:

To help address this, we’re reviewing all costs across group airlines with a particular focus on airport churn negotiations, maturing labour agreements (which may require temporary pay freezes), lower crew ratios and increased use of AI.

Yi He, co-founder of Binance, has said that its top priority is to “ensure the environment is secure, after which users can withdraw their funds and Binance can resume operations.”

She rejected comparisons with collapsed rival FTX, writing on X:

Every action has a motive. Look at some fraudulent exchanges that absconded, P2P platforms, and commercial banks: their ledgers are opaque; once the website is shut down, they simply abscond with the funds, the company is liquidated or goes bankrupt, and all they need to do is give you an arbitrary excuse. As for how much money was actually in the account and where it went, there is no way to know.

These kinds of closures happen without any warning—they just disappear. There is no real operation, no one comes out to explain what happened, and it is even less possible for withdrawals to be opened.

Eurozone manufacturing continued to grow in October, according to the latest purchasing managers’ survey data from S&P Global.

The pace of growth did however slow, with the index dipping to 52.7 last month from 52.9 in September (which was the highest reading sine May 2022). Any reading above 50 signals growth.

It suggests that European factories are holding up well in the face of trade tariffs, conflicts and surging energy csots.

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

Another solid PMI reading extends the eurozone’s best growth spell for manufacturing for over four years. The sustained growth recorded since February paints an encouraging picture of resilience for the manufacturing sector, which has been buffeted by the headwinds of tariffs and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, and in particular the surge in costs and supply difficulties that these have caused.

Instead, increased defence spending, precautionary inventory building, diversification and changing trade patterns due to US tariffs have created growth opportunities for many producers.

However, he adds, growth is not broad-based – manufacturers in France and Italy have struggled, with the former suffering the “additional stress of domestic political uncertainty”.

In France, the index fell from a reading of 50.6 in September to 49.5 in October. Anything below 50 signals a decline. Williamson added:

Furthermore, with input cost inflation surging sharply higher again in October, climbing to one of the highest rates seen over the past four years thanks to higher energy prices and supply bottlenecks, the latest PMI data add to pressure on the [European Central Bank] to hike rates further in the coming months, providing another headwind to businesses.”

Scammers appear to be targeting people affected by the Binance hack by offering them fake compensation rewards.

There are screenshots circulating online that promise $150 in free compensation for withdrawal suspensions. Binance has confirmed that it is false information and the screenshots are digitally altered.

It comes after a warning from Binance founder CZ that scammers are in “overdrive” following the $6.3bn hack last week.

Binance has confirmed that customers can now withdraw cash in US dollars as it restores its systems after the biggest crypto theft in history last week.

Euro, yen and some other fiat currency withdrawals were already restored. The exchange said on X that it will continue to share further updates today.

Elsewhere this morning: oil prices have retreated after reports that US president Donald Trump wants to give diplomacy with Iran more time before possibly restarting strikes after the midterm election result.

Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, is down 2.6% to about $110 a barrel.

Trump told Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he wants to let negotiations with Iran play out before potentially restarting strikes after the midterm elections on Tuesday, according to a report by Axios, which cited unnamed sources.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets, and the world economy.

Crypto scammers are now in “overdrive”, the founder of crypto exchange Binance has warned, as customers pull billions in funds from the platform as it recovers from a record hack.

The platform was hit by a $6.3bn theft on Thursday, which has since been described as the biggest heist in history. Experts identified North Korea as the probable culprit.

Binance initially froze withdrawals as it investigated the breach but on Sunday announced it had begun a phased reopening.

By Sunday afternoon, the platform had processed $4.6bn in withdrawals and $1bn in deposits, resulting in a net outflow of about $3.6bn – 2.1% of its $171bn in total assets under management. (Those numbers were confirmed by the company in its latest proof of reserves snapshot – a full report is expected today.)

Changpeng Zhao, the founder of the platform and commonly known as CZ, has warned that scammers are now targeting those that are trying to pull their money from the platform. He wrote on X:

Scammers on over drive now. Be careful.

His post was in response to a post which said:

Some of you may have seen posts and screenshots circulating recently. Please be aware that these screenshots are fake and the information in them is false. For accurate and up-to-date information, always refer to our official channels and announcements.

The hack has spooked the market, with investors also pulling out funds from Bitcoin ETFs in the US, according to Nick Forster, chief executive of Derive.xyz, a crypto platform. He said:

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $643 million in net outflows on Friday, their first trading session following the hack.

BlackRock’s IBIT saw $233.7 million in outflows, while Fidelity’s FBTC lost $201 million, ARKB $129.5 million, GBTC $53.3 million and BITB $25.7 million. No fund recorded net inflows.

….We’re seeing a similar shift in options trading on Derive.xyz. In the first 12 hours following the hack, put options accounted for 68% of Bitcoin options premiums traded, compared with 43% in the preceding five days.

Trading activity also remained elevated, with approximately $55 million in daily Bitcoin options volume since the hack, compared with $34 million the day prior.

Traders have been moving quickly to protect themselves against further losses, with downside protection taking a much larger share of options activity.

He added that the odds of Bitcoin hitting the $100,000 level by the end of the year were now just 3.5%.

Last Wednesday, Derive options were pricing a 6% probability of Bitcoin exceeding $100K by Christmas. That has now fallen to just 3.5%, or roughly a one-in-30 chance.

…Before the hack, our options market was pricing a 75% probability of Bitcoin finishing above $80,000 at Friday’s expiry. Instead, Bitcoin settled at $77,786.

The agenda

• 6am GMT: Ryanair half-year results

• 9am GMT: Eurozone manufacturing PMI

• 9.30am GMT: UK manufacturing PMI

• 3pm GMT: US manufacturing PMI

• 10pm GMT: Apple Q4 earnings