Julia Kollewe 

Barclays cuts 5,000 jobs as profits jump ahead of looming bank tax; French bond yields hit fresh 24-year high – as it happened

Oil prices rise to five-month high amid Houthi attacks
  
  

Traders work on the trading floor of Barclays Bank at Canary Wharf in London in 2018.
Traders work on the trading floor of Barclays Bank at Canary Wharf in London in 2018. Photograph: Simon Dawson/Reuters

Unite union in 'urgent and frank' talks with Barclays over job cuts

The Unite union said it is engaging in “urgent and frank” discussions with Barclays over the 5,000 job cuts it announced today.

General secretary Sharon Graham said:

Barclays workers deserve better than this. The company is using AI as an excuse to discard its loyal and long-suffering workforce.

Employers should be focussed on upgrading employees’ skills so that they remain employed as new technology changes the workplace. Instead, Barclays is guilty of taking a short-term, kneejerk approach. Unite is working with its members to find the best way forward to reset this destructive announcement.

Unite said it recognises the need to embrace new technologies as industries evolve. However, these changes must never come at the expense of good, meaningful, skilled jobs, it said, adding that the introduction of new technology must happen with workers, not to workers.

Unite, particularly within the finance sector, has spent years establishing AI and technology agreements that protect jobs and working conditions. These frameworks ensure that jobs remain meaningful, retain human oversight, prevent algorithmic decision-making, and guard against discrimination. Technology must benefit workers, not replace them, the union stressed.

Improved efficiencies cannot just be used to pad profits or cut jobs; workers must share in the benefits of new technology. Such protections can only be secured through collective bargaining

Unite national officer for finance Rick Coyle said:

Unite is engaging in urgent and frank negotiations with Barclays. We will also be offering support and guidance to our members at this difficult time.

Barclays needs to put measures in place to upskill and adapt workers for new technology and that includes AI. As part of the Financial Service Skills Compact it should not be cutting jobs.

Just one more thing before I go...

Forrester Research’s principal analyst JP Gownder has sent us his thoughts on the risks of reducing the workforce to fund AI investments.

Too many organisations announce large-scale job cuts while claiming that AI is making workers redundant, when the reality is often much more complicated. Cutting 5,000 jobs while pointing to AI-driven efficiencies risks assuming that AI can replace more human work than it is currently capable of doing.

The risk for Barclays, and any organisation pursuing AI-linked headcount reductions, is cutting faster than the technology can compensate. Replacing an employee means addressing the many different tasks within their job, deploying AI that can perform those tasks reliably at scale, and adapting those systems as workflows evolve. If that doesn’t happen, companies can find themselves with fewer people but without technology genuinely doing the work they removed.

Some roles will shrink because of AI. But in most roles and in most cases, organisations are using AI as an excuse for financialised layoffs, and AI isn’t doing the work formerly done by those employees at all.

Closing summary

Wall Street stocks have fallen as strong results from Facebook parent Meta and Tesla failed to counter doubts about the AI outlook, and oil prices jumped to a five-month high.

The Dow Jones lost 146 points, or 0.3%, to 52,711, while the benchmark S&P 500 dropped nearly 70 points, or 0.9%, to 7,688. The tech-heavy Nasdaq tumbled 455 points to 26,247, a 1.7% decline.

Meta shares fell 5.5% despite the company reporting a 26% increase in quarterly revenue to $64.6bn, helped by AI recommendations, more ads being shown and rising ad prices. It also emerged that Meta, which also owns Instagram and WhatsApp, has struck a deal with Mark Zuckerberg to help him foot a possible California wealth tax targeting billionaires.

The electric carmaker Tesla’s shares slipped 0.1%, after reporting better-than-expected profits on Wednesday. But investors were probably more interested in chief executive Elon Musk floating the idea of merging the car company with his rocket and AI company, SpaceX.

Brent crude rose by more than 3% to above $112 a barrel earlier, the first time it’s been at that level since 18 May, after late night attacks by Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Saudi Arabia and hits to tankers in the strait of Hormuz threatened further disruptions to the world’s crude supply.

French borrowing costs continued to rise on Thursday, as investors fret that France’s government is struggling to pass a federal budget after public protests gripped the country.

France’s bond market was hit with another bout of selling, with the difference between French and German 10-year borrowing costs – a metric for the risk premium attached to French debt – rising to its highest level in almost 15 years.

The yield on the French 10-year bond – known as obligation assimilable du Trésor (Oat) – rose by nine basis points to 5.089% in early trading on Thursday, its highest level since July 2022. It broke across the 5% threshold on Wednesday for the first time since 2002.

The move lifted France’s 10-year borrowing costs over the equivalent for US Treasury bonds for the first time since 2013.

The volatility comes as the French government struggles to pass a budget for next year, while the country recovers from widespread protests that turned violent last weekend.

Barclays is cutting 5,000 jobs as part of wider cost-saving plans that its bosses say are being driven by advances in AI.

The job cuts will mean losing about 5% of the bank’s 93,000 global staff, with executives confirming they had already cut 1,000 workers since the start of the year.

The bank’s chief financial officer, Anna Cross, told reporters that the job cuts were part of plans to save more than £1.1bn in 2027.

These actions involve an expected reduction of circa 5,000 full-time employees. Around 60% of the group actions relate to support functions, including fewer developers, as AI makes our people more productive.

When asked how many of the total job cuts would be directly linked to advances in AI, the chief executive, CS Venkatakrishnan, said the bank had been making “deep investments” in technology and simplifying its processes.

Websites around the world have been hit by millions of attempts to exploit a recently discovered vulnerability in their code, cybersecurity companies have said, as the US National Security Agency warned the flaw could allow attackers to take control of web servers, steal data and disrupt services.

The problem in the PHP programming language, which underpins about 70% of the world’s websites, emerged on Wednesday causing governments and companies to pull their websites off the internet before they could be attacked and so they could patch the fault.

With that, we are wrapping up for the day. Thank you for reading – we’ll be back tomorrow. Take care! – JK

Websites across world hit by millions of attempts to exploit PHP code flaw

Websites around the world have been hit by millions of attempts to exploit a recently discovered vulnerability in their code, cybersecurity companies have said, as the US National Security Agency warned the flaw could allow attackers to take control of web servers, steal data and disrupt services.

The problem in the PHP programming language, which underpins about 70% of the world’s websites, emerged on Wednesday causing governments and companies to pull their websites off the internet before they could be attacked and so they could patch the fault.

In the UK, 32 government services have been taken offline, the cybersecurity minister, Liz Lloyd, told parliament. She said this “largely resulted from precautionary measures” while updates were applied.

Downing Street said no public-facing critical services had been affected and that “some limited services may be temporarily offline” but this did not mean they had been hacked. The website for the BBC’s Traitors was one of those that was down on Thursday. It sparked particular concern about the ongoing vulnerability of systems used by schools, local governments and charities, which may not have dedicated cybersecurity support to execute the fix.

Updated

Back to our main story today. Barclays announced this morning that it is cutting 5,000 jobs partly due the use of greater technology, namely AI, as it reported a 12% increase in quarterly profits to £2.3bn and a £500m share buyback.

A No10 spokeswoman said job losses at Barclays are a matter for them but added the government recognises uncertainty for employees, reports our political correspondent Aletha Adu. The spokeswoman said:

AI will change how people work, and we will support working people through that change.

Updated

Turkey cuts interest rates, pointing to slowing inflation

Turkey’s central bank has cut its key interest rate to 36%, the first reduction in nine months, as it pointed to a recent slowdown in inflation.

The bank reduced its policy rate from 37% to 36%, in the first cut since January when the bank lowered the key rate from 38% to 37%, a level it stayed at until now. It explained in a statement:

Despite monthly fluctuations, recent inflation figures and leading indicators confirm the downward trend.

Data on economic activity and the limited impact of supply shocks on domestic prices suggest that the weak trend in domestic demand continues.

However, geopolitical tensions are keeping energy prices high, which could push inflation higher, it warned, saying the effects of geopolitical developments “are being closely monitored”.

Turkey’s annual inflation rate eased to 29.7% in September from 31.5% in August, marking the first time it was below 30% in nearly five years, according to official figures.

At the time, Turkey’s finance minister Mehmet Simsek said it was at its lowest level since November 2021. “Disinflation is spreading across the board, excluding transportation,” he said on X.

The official figures are disputed by the ENAG group of independent economists. It said its own figures showed annual inflation much higher, at 46.6% in September.

UK must prepare for infrastructure attacks by hostile states, says Streeting

The defence secretary, Wes Streeting, has said Britain should prepare for the threat of “state-sponsored terrorism” by hostile powers targeting everyday infrastructure as part of a national conversation about resilience in the face of emergencies.

He said on Thursday the public should consider how to respond to so-called hybrid warfare risks, such as cyber-attacks that could knock out payment systems used by businesses or cause supply chains to collapse. He also said the public should consider natural risks, such as flooding or wildfires.

European states have become increasingly vocal about the threat of sabotage efforts by enemies, particularly Russia, which can cause disruption or even directly threaten safety. These efforts have included an explosives-laden drone found next to a Ukrainian cargo plane at Germany’s Leipzig airport in August, and a series of unexplained explosions and fires at defence facilities.

Streeting was speaking at a new tank gun barrel factory in Telford in the West Midlands. The factory, owned by the German manufacturer Rheinmetall, is part of efforts to accelerate rearmament in the face of Russian military threats, but Streeting also emphasised that the public should be prepared for hybrid warfare, or sabotage actions that stop short of outright war.

Terms like hybrid warfare and grey zone threats do not accurately capture or convey to the general public what I prefer to describe as state-sponsored terrorism. So in the face of those threats, which are not hypothetical but real, and not somewhere else but increasingly here, we have to step up and take seriously our national resilience as well as our national defence.

Aldi and Lidl will be subject to same rules as major supermarkets, CMA says

Also on the retail front, Aldi and Lidl will be subject to the same rules as major supermarkets to ensure customers get the best choice of where to shop, the UK’s competition watchdog has said.

The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has decided to designate Aldi, Lidl GB and Lidl NI as “large grocery retailers,” a move that will prevent the discount chains from blocking rival supermarkets opening close to their stores.

The UK food and grocery market is worth an estimated £222.7bn, with Aldi and Lidl ranking among the top five retailers by market share, the CMA said. The two German supermarket groups have grown strongly in recent years and opening new stores around the country.

Aldi is the UK’s fourth-largest grocer with a market share of 10.6%, behind Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Asda, while Lidl has been vying for fifth place with Morrisons, at 8.2%, according to retail analysts Wordpanel by Numerator.

The order has applied to Asda, Co‑op, Marks and Spencer, Morrisons, Sainsbury’s, Tesco and Waitrose since 2010. It is designed to stop large grocery retailers from using land agreements to make it harder for rival supermarkets to open nearby – in particular through the use of restrictive covenants and exclusivity arrangements. The rules ensure supermarkets compete freely – and ultimately ensure shoppers have more choice about where to buy, and how much to pay for, their groceries.

In August, the CMA invited views on its proposal to designate Aldi, Lidl GB and Lidl NI under the order. Interested parties including Morrisons, Waitrose and Iceland submitted their views, and all supported the CMA’s proposal. The regulator said it did not receive representations from Aldi or Lidl.

Once a retailer is designated, it cannot include any prohibited restrictions in new agreements – and existing agreements can be reviewed by the CMA, on the request of interested landowners, developers, and rival supermarkets.

Juliette Enser, executive director for competition enforcement and markets at the CMA, said:

We put in place rules to stop big supermarket chains from blocking rival stores opening in their area, and now those rules apply to Aldi and Lidl.

This will help level the playing field and make sure shoppers get the best choice of products and prices in their area.

Save high street by taxing online sales at higher rate, Burnham urged

Andy Burnham has been urged by one of his most senior former advisers to tax internet sales at a higher rate than those in physical shops to help “level the playing field” for struggling high streets.

As the prime minister and his chancellor, John Healey, prepare for their first budget next week, Andy Haldane joined calls for them to take action to stop the shutters coming down on growing numbers of shops across the UK.

In an interview for a Guardian series looking at how Britain can reverse the declining fortunes of towns, the former Bank of England chief economist urged them to launch a realignment of the tax system away from favouring online sellers, alongside a review of business rates and measures to turbocharge devolution.

Meta strikes deal with Zuckerberg to protect him from California wealth tax

Meta has struck a deal with Mark Zuckerberg to protect him from the threat of a California wealth tax targeting billionaires.

The social media company behind Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp revealed on Wednesday night that the arrangement would keep its chief executive living in California, where its headquarters are located.

Under the deal, Zuckerberg will receive new shares that could be sold to potentially foot a multibillion-dollar tax bill in the event that California passes a one-off billionaire tax. In return, he is committed to remain a resident of the state, or wherever Meta maintains its base, for eight years

Californians will vote early next month on Proposition 40 – a one-time 5% tax on the roughly 250 billionaires who live in the state.

Lunchtime summary: French bond yields jump as oil prices hit five-month high

Time for a summary.

Investors are demanding a similar risk premium to buy France’s 10-year government bonds against safe-haven German Bunds to 2011 during the eurozone debt crisis.

The spread between bonds of both countries reached more than 173 basis points today, the widest since November 2011, although still below the 200bps seen at the height of the global financial crisis.

The yield, or interest rate, on the benchmark French 10-year government bond is up 11.5bps at 5.1%, after rising as high as 5.1415%, its highest since July 2002. It breached 5% for the first time on Wednesday.

The French 10-year yield also rose above that of the equivalent US Treasury bond for the first time today, as US Treasury yields declined.

Giada Giani, an economist at Citi, said:

There exists a consensus that Europe is better equipped today to deal with crises, and that European institutions are stronger today than they were 15 years ago, which should make a European response easier to put together.

But re-emerging euroscepticism is a constrain here.

Bonds are under pressure from rising inflation, with concerns stoked by a jump in oil prices today, as well as worsening government finances and persistent street protests over the cost of living and other grievances in France and Italy.

Oil prices jumped to a five-month high after ​attacks in Saudi Arabia and hits to tankers in the strait of Hormuz threatened further disruptions to the world’s crude supply.

Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, rose more than 3% above $112 a barrel for the first time since 18 May. It is now trading at $111.85 a barrel, up $3.05 on the day, a 2.8% gain.

Yemeni Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, hit several targets in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, with two people killed and eight more wounded in a civilian airport in Dammam, and two people killed in a drone attack on a Saudi oilfield.

Spot gold has fallen nearly 2% to $4,063 an ounce.

A closely-watched survey showed an improvement in French business confidence in early October, but it did not capture the recent protests, with more planned for Saturday.

A divided French parliament is struggling to pass the annual government budget plan for next year, needed to keep a lid on its ballooning budget deficit and growing public debt pile.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs think the budget wrangling could well last into December, and the annual budget gap could hit 6.4% of GDP. Even if the government can get its €54bn savings package through, the deficit will still amount to 5% plus of GDP for the third consecutive year and push total debt above 120% of GDP for the first time — second only to Italy in the eurozone.

Barclays is cutting 5,000 jobs as part of wider cost-saving plans that its bosses say are being driven by advances in AI.

The job cuts will mean losing about 5% of the bank’s 93,000 global staff, with executives confirming they had already cut 1,000 workers since the start of the year.

The bank’s chief financial officer, Anna Cross, told reporters that the job cuts were part of plans to save more than £1.1bn in 2027.

These actions involve an expected reduction of circa 5,000 full-time employees. Around 60% of the group actions relate to support functions, including fewer developers, as AI makes our people more productive.

Updated

Maritime and port workers: how is the Middle East conflict affecting you?

The conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt shipping across the region, including in the strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s busiest maritime routes.

Iran state TV has reported that seven oil tankers were damaged in the Straight of Hormuz on Wednesday night. There has been an increase in the number of attacks on ships in recent days; some vessels have been hit by drones, others by mines.

We would like to hear from maritime workers, port staff and shipping crews or families aboard ships affected by the conflict. What is happening in the Strait of Hormuz? How is the situation affecting your work? We would also like to speak to friends or family of those on board. What are you hearing? How are they coping?

John Healey says helping entrepreneurs will be a budget priority

A week today John Healey, the chancellor, will be doing a media round defending the budget he is presenting on Wednesday next week.

Ahead of that, he has given an interview to Patrick Maguire from the Times. As you would expect, there is no real detail in it about the measures he will be presenting to MPs.

But the big picture message is very clear – and quite surprising, coming from a chancellor serving a PM who in some respects is steering left compared to his predecessor, writes the Guardian’s political correspondent Andrew Sparrow.

Healey says that he wants to be on the side of bloody-minded entrepreneurs who make a profit, he acknowledges that government has made their life harder over the past two years, and he suggests that cutting the ‘cost of living’ for business is just as important as cutting the real cost of living for families.

In the quote that gives the Times its splash headline, Healey says:

I want to be a chancellor who backs business in Britain making a profit, and those entrepreneurs who, in the end, are the ones who challenge the status quo, come up with innovative ideas and are trying, some of them through sheer bloody-mindedness, to keep going through these sorts of pressures …

If you’re not making a profit, you’ve got nothing to put back into the business. And for the people who start up these businesses, the ones who really thrive and grow, they have to make a profit — and they will be much more inclined to put it back into their own business. But we want it to grow here and stay here.

You can follow the latest on our politics live blog with Andrew Sparrow here:

Sainsbury's says households 'finding it tough' in run-up to Christmas

Sainsbury’s has warned of a “pretty challenging” market in the run-up to Christmas as households are “finding it tough” and food producers face rising costs.

Simon Roberts, the chief executive of the UK’s second biggest supermarket, called on the government not to “further aggravate” pressure on costs for business in this month’s budget.

He said it was “important this government does not repeat what we have seen in previous budgets” in raising business rates and employers’ national insurance contributions. “That’s been really hard,” he said.

After Sainsbury’s and other industry leaders met government ministers last week, Roberts said he believed “this government is really listening to business” especially on helping to create more jobs for young people.

Roberts added that food inflation was not “anything like” some of the high levels forecast earlier in the year but suggested high energy and fertiliser costs could push up food prices next year.

Roberts added that in a more unsettled global environment the UK needed to “improve food resilience and grow and produce more at home”. He called on the government to increase tax breaks that support investment in technology – including irrigation and reservoirs – on farms as the climate crisis is expected to lead to more hotter, drier summers such as this year’s.

Shares in Sainsbury’s slid 3.7% as the retailer revealed slower than expected sales growth of 2.6% in the six months to 12 September, with growth almost halving to 1.9% in the second quarter from 3% in the first. Strong online grocery sales – up 9% – and a 6% rise in sales of the retailer’s premium own-label Taste the Difference range helped with growth.

Roberts said sales had slowed as shoppers had kept a tight rein on the number of items they bought amid a “focus on the cost of living” and had reined in spending on clothing and “big-ticket” items, such as furniture, at Argos. Sales at the catalogue shop were down 1.8% and Sainsbury’s general merchandise and clothing sales were down 3.4% in the half.

Updated

Barclays boss backs UK chancellor over expected bank tax hikes

Barclays’ CEO seems to have admitted defeat over bank tax hikes, which are expected to be a headline measure in John Healey’s budget next Wednesday.

When asked whether the bank might consider tilting assets or investment out of the UK and to the US - where it also has operations - as a result of higher taxes , Barclays chief executive CS Venkatakrishnan gave his full backing to the chancellor.

He told reporters:

I recognise that the chancellor and the government has been entrusted with an important duty by the public and the people. And they have to balance a host of considerations. He [Healey] is the man in the arena, and I deeply respect the responsibility he bears on his shoulders and wish him well.

His long term goal is the same as our long term goal, which is to get growth.

Second, we are already a bank, which makes, effectively, half of our money elsewhere [ outside] the UK. And so this is not a question of a financial hit to us. It’s bearable. It is a question of proportion and it’s a question of market signaling. But as I said, I deeply respect the responsibility that the chancellor has and he has our full support and backing.

Bank bosses have been lobbying intensively against bank tax rises since narrowly escaping higher levies during last year’s budget.

That includes JP Morgan boss Jamie Dimon, who said earlier this year he could scrap plans for a new £3bn London headquarters if the UK government became hostile to banks. News of the tower – which will house more than half of its 23,000 UK staff – was unveiled just days after former Labour chancellor Rachel Reeves spared the sector of further tax rises in her 2025 autumn budget.

Lorry drivers' blockades bring southern Italy to standstill

French president Emmanuel Macron isn’t the only European leader to be holding emergency meetings.

As lorry drivers’ protests bring much of southern Italy to a standstill amid food and fuel shortages, with businesses warning they are on the brink of collapse, Italian authorities have launched a police crackdown on road blockades, reports our man in Palermo, Lorenzo Tondo.

The interior ministry said on Wednesday that 1,339 protesters had been identified, 71 reported to judicial authorities and 242 fined over what it described as “illegal road blockades”. Police escorted hundreds of vehicles carrying goods, including 500 in Campania alone, while the interior minister, Matteo Piantedosi, warned of possible infiltration by criminal groups.

Industry associations in Campania and Puglia warned that businesses were on the brink of collapse, prompting the prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, to convene an emergency cabinet meeting.

Industry associations representing Naples and other parts of Campania and Puglia said in a joint statement:

The truckers’ dispute requires an immediate response. Production has ground to a halt due to a lack of supplies. The strike must end; otherwise, the damage to consumers and businesses, which is already significant, will become unsustainable.

The protests began last week, with lorry drivers blocking roads and slowing traffic across the country, particularly in the south, following strikes and sit-ins by farmers and fishers.

The disruption has left supermarket shelves empty in several regions, with photographs showing entire aisles stripped of goods. Stocks at some supermarket chains have reportedly fallen to 50% of normal levels.

Italy’s air traffic management agency, ENAV, said on Wednesday that Crotone and Reggio Calabria airports had run out of jet fuel because of supply disruptions.

According to estimates gathered by Confcommercio Sicilia, the five-day disruption to freight transport has caused between €40m and €50m in losses in Sicily alone, affecting supermarkets and the wider fresh food supply chain.

The protests threaten to deepen the crisis facing Meloni’s government, which is struggling to contain the unrest. Measures announced so far by Rome appear to have done little to appease lorry drivers, prompting the government to take the controversial step of attempting to quell the protests through a police crackdown.

The ongoing protests in France create a vicious circle, ING’s senior economist Charlotte de Montpellier warned.

The yield on 10-year French government bonds OATs has crossed the symbolic 5% threshold, while the spread over the German Bund has widened beyond 160 basis points, from 137bps last Friday.

These moves reflect both growing doubts about the ability of any future government to pass the necessary reforms and savings measures, and mounting concerns about the outlook for the French economy.

At the same time, the renewed deterioration in financial conditions is further weakening an already very poor growth outlook by increasing the cost of credit.

ING is forecasting GDP growth of just 0.3% in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027, but the risks are tilted towards another downward revision. De Montpellier added:

Against this backdrop, the government’s objective of reducing the deficit to 5% of GDP in 2027 looks particularly fragile, as it is based on growth of 0.5% in 2026 and 1% in 2027, well above our forecast. Even if the draft budget were adopted in full, it might therefore not be enough, as weaker activity would automatically reduce the expected tax revenues.

French business confidence improves but unrest clouds outlook, with more protests planned

French business confidence unexpectedly improved in October, but this does not capture the impact of the latest social unrest, while higher interest rates, a weak labour market and worsening public finances are clouding the outlook further.

A closely-watched business confidence index edged up by one point to 97, but remains below its long-term average.

The main surprise came from industry. The manufacturing business climate index rose to 105 in October 2026, above market expectations and 101 in September, marking its highest level since July 2022. The improvement was driven mainly by overall order books, although they stayed negative (-11 vs -16 in September) and foreign order books (-1 vs -10), with the latter reaching its highest level since April 2022.

In the services sector, the business climate indicator rose one point to 99.

On prices, Charlotte de Montpellier, senior economist covering France and Switzerland at ING, noted that the survey provided no new inflationary signal. Intentions to raise prices declined in industry and remained stable in both services and construction. The employment climate indicator fell three points to 95, as hiring intentions worsened in the services sector.

The rebound is encouraging, especially after several months of disappointing industrial data. But it does not fundamentally alter the outlook. The indicator of perceived economic uncertainty rose sharply. In services, it even reached its highest level outside the Covid-19 crisis.

The survey was conducted between late September and early October. It captures the widening in French bond spreads, but not the violence and social unrest seen last weekend. “October’s rebound is encouraging, but fragile and already partly overtaken by events,” de Montpellier said.

The nature of the risk has changed. It no longer relates only to weak activity and the impact of higher interest rates, but also to the economic, political and financial consequences of social unrest.

The economic cost of the violence is not limited to broken shop windows and looting. Material damage represents only the most visible part of the bill. Closures, lower footfall and permanently lost sales could weigh far more heavily on activity.

But the real issue is persistence. A brief and localised episode would probably have a limited macroeconomic impact, while prolonged unrest could undermine confidence by encouraging households to avoid city centres, tourists to postpone their trips and businesses to delay investment. This could turn a temporary disruption into a more lasting economic shock.

The unrest also makes it even more difficult to secure parliamentary approval for the budget, at a time when the government has virtually no room to respond through additional spending or tax cuts. France therefore has neither the fiscal room to buy social peace nor the political room to impose the necessary adjustment easily.

More protests are planned this weekend, and the French president Emmanuel Macron – back from his tour of the Gulf – is hosting a security council meeting to try and put out the fires at home.

Updated

We’ve launched a fun (??) game – you can pretend to be the UK chancellor and play the budget game to see if you can balance the books.

See if you can do a better job than John Healey at creating a budget that keeps MPs and the bond markets onside.

French 10-year bond yield tops US Treasury yield for first time since 2013

The French 10-year government bond yield has risen above the equivalent US Treasury yield for the first time since 2013.

The French yield, or interest rate, jumped 10 basis points to 5.09% this morning, while the 10-year US Treasury yield fell 4bps to 5.07%.

With higher oil prices stoking inflation fears and stock markets sliding today, investors are piling into US government bonds, which are considered ultra-safe. When bond prices rise, their yields fall.

Oil prices keep rising. Brent crude is now trading 3.3% higher on the day, up $3.6 to $112.38 a barrel, the highest since May.

Interactive
Oil prices

Updated

While overall profits at Barclays jumped 12% to £2.3bn in the three months to September, analysts had expected an even better performance.

Income from fixed income trading slid 19%, worse than a 5% drop among US banks, after a global bond sell-off.

The bank’s chief executive CS Venkatakrishnan said:

I am disappointed and you can be sure this will get my attention.

A Barclays spokesperson sent us this comment about the 5,000 job cuts, which bosses said are driven by advances in artificial intelligence, adding that greater use of technology makes “our people more productive”.

We are positioning Barclays for the future, building the workforce and skills needed to deliver our strategy and meet the evolving needs of our customers and clients. In doing so we are committed to helping our colleagues develop and build rewarding careers, while meeting the changing needs of customers and clients and ensuring Barclays continues to succeed in the years ahead.

One of the UK’s biggest banks, Barclays said it took “structural cost actions” to reduce its expenses by a further £201m in the third quarter, including bringing down staff costs through greater use of technology.

It is the first major European lender to report third-quarter results.

Updated

Barclays CEO: job cuts driven by AI, calls it 'icing on the cake'

The 5,000 job cuts are part of a wider cost cutting drive that Barclays bosses said has been driven by advances in artificial intelligence.

The majority (60%) affect support roles.

The job cuts will mean getting rid of about 5% of the bank’s 93,000 global staff.

The bank’s chief financial officer, Anna Cross, told reporters that it was part of plans to save more than £1.1bn in 2027.

These actions involve an expected reduction of circa 5000 full time employees, around 60% of the group actions relate to support functions, including theory developers. AI makes our people more productive.

When asked how many of the total job cuts would be directly linked to AI, chief executive CS Venkatakrishnan said the bank had been making “deep investments” in technology and simplifying its processes.

That is driving the bulk of the efficiency gains that you’ve seen so far. AI has an important role to play and may have a more important role to play in the future.

He called AI the“icing on the cake” to modernising the bank’s technology.

We have been focusing on the infrastructure build, and where the infrastructure is modern, we’ve been applying AI.

The news comes months after another UK-headquartered bank, Standard Chartered, announced plans to cut more than 7,000 jobs over the next four years as it ramped up the use of AI. It will mean slashing around 15% of its back-office roles by 2030.

Updated

Barclays says it is cutting 5,000 jobs

Barclays also said it is cutting 5,000 jobs, amounting to about 5% of its workforce, our banking correspondent Kalyeena Makortoff reports.

Its chief financial officer, Anna Cross, told journalists on a call that 1,000 of the job cuts have already been implemented, with another 4,000 to go before the end of the year.

The news was buried in this morning’s presentation, where the UK bank revealed higher profits of £2.3bn for the July to September period, up 12% on last year. It is handing a further £500m back to shareholders.

C. S. Venkatakrishnan, the chief executive, said that the bank’s cost to income ratio has improved from 63% to 62% in the last three months.

The Barclays share price fell 2.5% in early trading and is now up slightly. It has lost about a quarter of its value in the past three months.

Updated

The Barclays results come after reports on Monday that the Bank of England was examining whether Barclays traders had misrepresented illiquid private credit loans by using derivatives.

Barclays shares have fallen by 20% over the last three months, also pressured by the prospect of higher bank taxes in the upcoming budget.

Richard Hunter at interactive investor said:

Indeed, the UK banks have an additional hurdle to overcome in the form of the imminent budget. The sector has underperformed so far this year on a number of concerns, one of which is the bank surcharge. One market estimate suggests that the bank surcharge will be returned to 8% from the current 3% which in turn would reduce earnings by a possible 6%, although whatever the outcome some of the uncertainty which has been overhanging the banks would be removed.

On balance, these concerns have blemished the investor confidence which was clearly in evidence at the interim results, even though the longer-term picture remains solid and where Barclays has maintained its guidance for this year and next. Prospects for its three largest units, the Investment Bank, Barclays UK and Barclays US Consumer Bank are the main drivers and it may yet emerge that this quarter’s slightly uninspiring update is a blip rather than establishing a weaker trend.

Despite the quarterly share price weakness and the heightened expectations which have resulted in a weaker opening price today, the direction of travel remains intact, with the shares having posted a gain of 15% over the last year, as compared to a hike of 13% for the wider FTSE100. Over the last two years, the price is ahead by 74% and there seems little doubt that the group’s financial strength, alongside its geographical and business diversity are factors which keeps the stock in demand among investors, such that the market consensus of the shares as a buy should remain untroubled.

Richard Hunter, head of markets at the trading platform interactive investor, said the Barclays results are a bit “a mixed bag which is unlikely to blow away the clouds which have been hovering over the sector”.

In the investment bank, which accounts for 42% of group revenues, the recent US experience of the large names was echoed, he noted. Equity income rose by 47%, but Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities (FICC) was 19% lower, leading to an overall 4% gain. Investment banking fees and advisory rose by 13%, with other highlights coming from Barclays UK Corporate.

Hunter added:

A cautious impairment provision of £500m was 20% lower than the previous year, with defaults remaining stable and far from ringing any alarm bells.

More broadly, the group reiterated its financial muscle with a further £500m share buyback, in addition to the £1bn announced at the interim results. This is part of the group’s ambitious aim of £10bn of returns between 2024 and 2026, and then £15bn of returns between 2026 and 2028.

At a more granular level, there are pockets which may raise the eyebrows of some investors. The US Consumer Bank saw income decline by 1%… although the numbers were muddied by the inclusion of Best Egg numbers, which Barclays acquired in May for £600m. Barclays UK saw income growth of 4% largely due to the impact of the structural hedge, but numbers were contained by ongoing investment into its wealth proposition, where income nonetheless managed a 10% gain.

Here’s our full story on Barclays:

Barclays is giving a further £500m to shareholders after reporting a jump in quarterly profits, as the lender steels itself for an increase in UK bank taxes at next week’s budget.

It comes only days before the chancellor, John Healey, is due to announce a hike on banks in the 28 October budget, as the prime minister Andy Burnham’s government looks for ways to raise revenue to help fund cost of living support programmes.

Barclays’ strong performance included a 6% rise in net interest income at its UK retail banking operations, to £2bn. The figure has become a flashpoint for campaigners pushing for a bank tax. It accounts for how much money banks make from loan charges, minus what they pay on deposits, and is linked to interest rates, which have been rising as the Iran war has driven up inflation expectations.

Barclays' bumper profits show need for bank windfall tax at budget, TUC says

Barclays third-quarter profits of £2.3bn – bring its profits so far this year to £8.4bn, up 15% on the year.

The TUC called the government for higher bank taxes, to fund a social energy tariff.

At the moment, the bank surcharge is an additional 3% corporation tax on the profits of banking companies above £100m. The Conservatives slashed the surcharge from 8% to 3% in 2023, just as interest rates were reaching their peak – a move that has cost the Treasury £6bn, the union body argued.

The TUC is calling for the government to increase the surcharge to raise up to £60bn over the next four years. Even just reversing the Tory cuts and setting it at 8% would raise £9bn over four years.

TUC general secretary Paul Nowak said:

Barclays’ bumper profits aren’t an anomaly. All the big banks are doing exceptionally well at the same time – but their windfall profits have been underpinned by mortgage misery for millions. That’s why it’s time for banks to pay a fairer share.

At a time when the chancellor needs to raise more revenue to support households and businesses through a looming energy bill crunch, Britain’s big four banks have made £200bn in profit since 2021. They can - and should - pay more tax.

Introduction: Barclays profits jump ahead of looming bank tax; French bond yields hit fresh 24-year high

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

Barclays’ profits jumped in the last quarter and it handed more cash to shareholders as further bank taxes loom in John Healey’s budget next Wednesday.

The UK lender reported a 12% rise in pre-tax profits to £2.3bn for the three months to 30 September. Income rose 3% to £7.4bn, ahead of expectations. In the UK, loans grew 7% year on year with particular strength in its corporate business, up 14%.

It announced a new £500m share buyback, bringing the amount handed back to shareholders so far this year to £2.8bn, up 46% year on year.

C. S. Venkatakrishnan, the Barclays chief executive, said:

I am pleased with the ongoing momentum of Barclays’ operational and financial performance.

With one quarter to go before the end of our original three-year plan, we have either achieved or are on track to achieve all of our 2026 group targets. We are confident in and committed to the 2028 targets that we laid out earlier in the year.

The investment bank delivered strong equities performance, offsetting a challenging environment for FICC [Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities].

Barclays’ investment bank reported income of £3.1bn, lower than analysts had forecast. Income from fixed income trading slid 19%, worse than a 5% drop among US banks.

The TUC urged the chancellor to increase taxes on banks at next week’s budget.

The union body wants the government to use the money to pay for a social energy tariff that brings down energy bills by up to £559 a year for those on low and middle incomes.

Last week, when bank stocks were falling amid talk of a hike in UK bank taxes, Angeline Ong, senior technical analyst at investing and trading platform IG, noted:

A UK bank tax risk is now a base case. If it is confirmed on 28 October, it’ll be the size and timing that will be key. If Healey does go ahead, shares of Lloyds and NatWest, which are almost entirely exposed to the UK, would likely be impacted most, and you are seeing this already in the share price reaction today. Barclays is partly exposed. HSBC is least exposed in the mix.

In financial markets, the cost of French government borrowing has increased further, hitting multi-decade highs, and piling pressure on ministers after weeks of increasingly violent street protests.

The yield, or interest rate, on France’s 10-year bonds rose 4 basis points to 5.039%, the highest since July 2002, after breaking through the 5% mark on Wednesday.

The risk premium over German Bunds has widened to 163bps, the widest since November 2011, reflecting investor concerns over France’s fiscal outlook. The government has yet to pass its budget. (During the last financial crisis, the bond spread was 200bps).

Oil prices have climbed above $111 a barrel this morning, after more ​Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia fuelled fears over an escalation of the Middle East conflict and further disruptions to supplies.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, is up 2.5% at $111.58 a barrel, raising fears of higher inflation, which puts pressure on bonds.

Asian stock markets slid, with Japan’s Nikkei down 2.65%, China’s CSI 300 losing 1.5% and South Korea’s Kospi tumbling 3.7%.

The Agenda

  • 10am BST: UK index-linked gilt 2031 action

  • 11am BST: UK CBI Industrial tends survey

  • 11.50am BST: Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey speech

  • 1.30pm BST: US Initial jobless claims for week of 17 October

  • 3pm BST: Eurozone consumer confidence flash for October

  • 3pm BST: US Conference Board leading index for September

Updated

 

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