In an interview with ITV at the end of last week, Andy Burnham said clearly that he believed in the fiscal rules. He said:

Let me say this really clearly. I support the fiscal rules. There needs to be a plan to get debt down …

I said you can’t ignore [the bond markets] and I never would have believed that you could. Of course you can’t. And also that you stick to fiscal rules. There’s got to be fiscal discipline. I’ve run Greater Manchester for practically a decade.

Asked about his comment to the New Statesman last year about how governments should not be “in hock” to the bond markets, Burnham said: “I said that politicians have placed Britain in hock because of the way in which we lost control of our finances and public spending.”

Alex Wickham from Bloomberg says Burnham’s spokesperson has now firmed up this position. Wickham says:

Andy Burnham fully rules out changing Rachel Reeves’ fiscal rules if he becomes PM

At the weekend his team had left it open whether he might change them in future

But tonight his spokesperson tells Bloomberg he is explicitly ruling out any changes to the existing fiscal rules AND crucially Burnham is now also ruling out exempting defence spending from the fiscal rules to spend more on the military

He had floated that idea in a Bloomberg interview a few weeks ago but his spokesperson tonight says he won’t pursue it

This is a big attempt by Burnham’s campaign team to reassure markets who were spooked on Friday by his potential premiership

But it may risk disappointing some on the left who had hoped for a more radical fiscal policy

It may also mean tax rises are the likely main revenue raiser in the event Burnham wants to increase spending

A reader asks:

There have been reports of many different Reform councillors resigning or being sacked from local authorities since the council elections at the beginning of June - including a situation where a council has been taken back from Reform by other parties as there was no faith in how it was being managed. Why are we not hearing about thse reports anywhere in the media - and is it something that Guardian can do some fact finding on? Thanks.

You are not reading much about these stories partly because a single councillor resigning or being suspended is not much of a story and partly because, although this happening to several councillors from the same party all at one time is newsworthy, over the last week or so political journalists have been rather busy with other stuff, as you will have noticed.

But Mark Pack, the Lib Dem peer and former party president, has been keeping a tally on his blog. He says the Reform UK have already lost nine councillors – mostly over misconduct allegations.

Pack also references a blog by Paul Webster, who is keeping a tally of councillors from all parties who have resigned or been suspended since the May elections. He has nine Reform UK names on his list, four Greens and two Conservatives.

The Liberal Democrats have accused Andy Burnham of U-turning over his support for rejoining the EU. In a statement issued after Burnhham’s speech today (see 2.29pm), and referring to Burnham’s previous comments about wanting the UK to rejoin the EU at some point in his lifetime, Al Pinkerton, the Lib Dem Europe spokesperson, said:

I see Andy Burnham has already started U-turning before he’s even been elected. The Liberal Democrats have always been clear that Britain’s future lies back in the EU and we have a credible plan to get there, starting with a customs union.

I know that many Labour MPs agree with us that the government needs to show more ambition on Europe, so I hope they will back our amendment on Wednesday to send a message to the prime minister.

The Lib Dems intend to call a vote on their amendment to the king’s speech motion. It will call on the government “to open negotiations with the EU on creating a UK-EU customs union”.

Here is Jessica Elgot’s story about Burnham’s speech.

In his speech, Andy Burnham also called for civil servants to be transferred from central government to local government.

He said:

We can’t have this halfway house anymore, where something gets devolved, but none of the people get devolved, and they sit there marking the homework of the combined authorities and finding new ways of putting pressure on us to do, to do something that they want. It’s time to trust, trust the region’s office of this country, free them up, let them get on with the job.

It means less delivery through unaccountable national agencies, and it means more things coming under local democratic control, like our buses.

We can’t go on with a bloated national state and a malnourished local one. It is time for public servants to be transferred into local authorities and combined authorities to give them the capacity and the agency to get things done. This is how we underpin the next decade of devolution.

Back to Andy Burnham, and this is what he said in his speech to the Great Northern Investment Summit in Leeds about what his campaign in Makerfield would be. He said part of it would be proposing to connect rail services in the constituency to Manchester’s Bee network for transport.

He said:

My plan for Makerfield will be ambitious and it will show how we lift up its people and places over the next decade. It will involve action to make the basics of life more affordable, like rents, bills and fares.

All rail stations and services in Makerfield coming into the Bee network and leading to a big reduction for people in the cost of public transport and cost of travel.

It will involve the reindustrialisation of our part of the world, for instance through the work I’m doing as mayor to bring modern manufacturing to the PPG site in Hindley Green.

Changes to education to make technical education the equal of the university route and give young people new paths into good jobs.

How wrong it is that for the best part of 30 years now the debate in education has all been about the university route, and the whole system has been built to support the university route?

What about those millions of kids across the North of England who want technical qualifications, who want paths into good jobs and support to get to those jobs?

Thursday was one of the most momentous days in Keir Starmer’s premiership. As soon as it was announced that Josh Simons was stepping down as MP for Makerfield, and (later that evening) that No 10 would not try to block Andy Burnham from being the candidate to replace him, a credible – even probable – path was open for Burnham replacing Starmer as PM within the next few months.

We don’t know much about what Starmer feels about all this. In a good article for the Observer yesterday, Tom Baldwin, Starmer’s friend and biographer, said the PM has been experiencing “rage and anger”. Starmer is said to have “special venom” reserved for Ed Miliband, a former friend, because he feels betrayed by Miliband siding privately with other ministers wanting Starmer to be replaced.

Today Starmer appeared in public for the first time since Thursday, recording a short, pooled TV interview with Christopher Hope, political editor of GB News.

The obvious question for Starmer is, if Burnham wins the byelection and makes a bid for the leadership, will Starmer fight to keep his job? Alternatively, he could resign immediately or (in a slightly softer version of defeat) agree a timetable for his departure (ranging from a few weeks to a few months).

Officially the line is that Starmer would fight a challenge. He told Hope that he would not set a timetable for his departure. But no prime minister can ever say that they don’t intend to stay on without instantly detonating their authority, and so these may just have been Mandy Rice-Davies answers. Starmer did not sound like someone intent on going down all guns blazing. Asked about staying as PM, Starmer said “I do want to fight the next election” and, asked about a leadership challenge, his initial response was to say “we’re not at that position”.

Instead, Starmer sounded like someone more likely to take a decision about his future if or when Burnham does win the byelection, taking into account the sort of support he retains at that point from Labour MPs.

In the interview there was no trace of the bitterness that Baldwin wrote about in his Observer article. Looking at the pictures from the event, Starmer seemed to be trying hard to smile. But in the interview he did sound rather deflated, which in the circumstances was not suprising.

Asked if he agreed with Wes Streeting that the government should commit to rejoining the EU, Starmer replied:

The way I see it is this: we inherited a really bad Brexit deal that Boris Johnson has negotiated. It was a botched deal. It doesn’t work for businesses, doesn’t work for the country.

What I’ve done in two years is to completely reset our relations with our EU partners, to already have improved on that deal, which is what I did last year.

This year we have another summit with the EU, where we’re going to take a really important leap forward in terms of the relationship, bring us closer to Europe. It’s really good for businesses, really good for some of the businesses in this room, really good for the country.

So that’s what I intend to do, not get lost in a debate about what may happen years down the line.

In his pooled interview, Keir Starmer also insisted that he still plans to fight the next election.

Christopher Hope from GB News said that, in an interview published eight days ago, Starmer said he wanted to fight the next election and serve a full second term. He asked Starmer if that was still the case.

Starmer replied:

I do want to fight the next election.

Obviously, I recognise that after the local election results, the elections in Wales and Scotland as well, that the first task is obviously turning things around and making sure that my focus is in the right place.

The last 10 days, there’s been a lot of activity which hasn’t been as focused in my view as it should have been, and I remind myself every day that I was elected to office to serve the people, to serve the country, that’s what I believe in, and that’s what I’ll be getting on with.

Asked he would fight a leadership contest if another Labour MP gets enough support to mount a challenge, Starmer replied:

Well, we’re not at that position.

But I’ve said, I don’t know how many times, that I’m not going to walk away.

I feel very strongly that I must serve the people who voted me into office.

Do I recognise that we’ve got to turn things around over after those election results? Yes, of course I do. And obviously a lot of people in the Labour party have been talking about what has to happen next. I recognise that.

But it is really important, for me at least, to remind myself, why am I in politics …

My job is to serve, and to carry out that responsibility. And that’s what I’ll do.

Asked if he would set out a timetable for standing down, if Andy Burnham does win the byelection, Starmer replied:

No, I’m not going to do that.

But Starmer also said it was a very important byelection, and that he would be backing the Labour candidate 100%, whoever they are.

Keir Starmer has rejected claims that his premiership is, in effect over.

On a visit to promote the small business protections (late payments) bill, which is being published this week, Starmer was asked if his premiership is now, in effect, over, given that Andy Burnham is tipped to replace him later this year.

Starmer replied:

No, we’ve got a lot of work to do and I was addressing Labour party staff actually, this morning reminding them, and reminding the whole team really, that we were elected into office by millions of people, to bring about change in this country. That’s our responsibility. my responsibility is to serve the people who voted us into office, serve my country.

I will post more from his pooled interview (with Christopher Hope from GB News) shortly.

Towards the end of his speech, Burnham addressed the Brexit issue.

Referring to how he thought further devolution could help constituencies like Makerfield, he said:

It will bring people back together, get places like Makerfield working and move us beyond some of the divisive debates of the last decade.

My view is that Brexit has been damaging, but I also believe the last thing we should do right now is rerun those arguments.

Britain will be stuck in a permanent rut if we’re just constantly arguing and people are pulling away from each other.

It is time, surely, isn’t it, to bring people back together, to focus on what we’ve got in common, to get the growth coming to all places. That is what we need in this moment. And it’s really important that, whatever comes out of this byelection, there’s a more unifying feeling about the change that we need to work towards.

I am not proposing that the UK considers rejoining the EU. I respect the decision that was made at the referendum, and it’s going to undermine everything that I’ve said about strengthening democracy if we don’t respect that vote.

If we are to unify communities and the country, it means focusing on the big economic challenges we have – the structural problems that I’ve been talking about, the fact that we gave away so many of the levers of economic power when we deregulated and privatised.

This is quite a forceful way of shutting down claims that, if he were to be elected MP for Makerfield and then Labour leader and PM, Burnham would put Britain on a journey to rejoining the EU.

Wes Streeting make this a Labour leadership election issue on Saturday when he said he would like the UK to rejoin. Burnham is not as pro-EU as Streeting, but at Labour conference last year he said: “I’m going to say I want to rejoin. I hope, in my lifetime, I see this country rejoining the European Union.” Burnham is now 56.

Burnham’s comments today are compatible with what he said last autumn. He is not ruling out the UK ever rejoining. But in saying that he does not want a rerun of the Brexit arguments, that he wants to unify people, and that the government needs to “respect the decision that was made at the referendum”, he is kicking the issue quite far into the long term. This is not the sort of language likely to come from a leader planning a bold statement about EU membership in the next manifesto.

Streeting, by comparison, takes a different approach; he has indicated that he does want to have an argument about this.

Makerfied voted 65% for leave in 2016 and, by closing down the “Brexit betrayal” line of attack, Burnham will be boosing his byelection chances. But his statement today may disappoint Labour party members who are much more aligned with Streeting’s view on this.

Burnham went into more detail about how councils have been deprived of their powers to improve residents’ lives. (See 1.56pm.)

If politics can’t fix something as simple as a pothole, you’ve got a very big problem. Why should people have faith in the ability of politics to do anything if it can’t do something as simple as that?

And how unfair is it on those councillors who work hard in their communities and then just get swept away because of the failure of national government to protect local government and give them the ability to make basic improvements in their communities.

It’s just not right. It needs saying that it’s not right, and I’m here to do that.

Burnham says there should be “a completely different relationship between national and local government”.

What we’ve got at the moment across large parts of the north of England - as good as the last decade has been in terms of the start we’ve made with devolution – underneath the combined authorities, sadly, we have hollowed out councils and we have an unaccountable state where too much is delivered by arm’s length or outsourced agencies that local councillors can’t control.

So many crucial services like housing and energy, delivered by fragmented agencies outside of local democratic control.

As an example, he cites the way he and Josh Simons, the former Makerfield MP, had to “to move heaven and earth” to get agencies to deal with flooding in the constituency.

Burnham sets out what he calls his “core argument”.

My core argument is this.

Britain has been on the wrong path, 40 years on the wrong path, a path that has damaged communities across the north.

The deindustrialisation of the 1980s was devastating for places across Makerfield like Ashton-in-Makerfield … You know exactly what I am talking about. The draining away of economic, social and political power from these places left adrift. That’s what happened.

That deindustrialisation was then compounded by deregulation, privatisation in the 90s and austerity in the 2010s. It all adds up to 40 years of neoliberalism that have not been kind to the north of England – 40 years of trickle-down economics that did not, in the end, trickle down very much at all to Platt Bridge or Hindley.

In fact, that system has siphoned wealth out of those places and into the hands of people for whom life was already very good.

It created an economy that didn’t work for most working people. It led to the loss of good jobs, the decline of our high streets, and the neglect of our towns. It led to people paying over the odds for the daily basics energy, housing, water, transport.

And in the 2000s, and particularly in the 2010s, our councils across the north of England were stripped of the resource and power to do anything about it.

They just don’t have the agency that they should have to protect people from these changes. And that’s the broken state of local government in England that we see right now, particularly felt in councils across across the north.

Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, is speaking now.

He says they are celebrating a decade of devolution in the north.

But he says more, big changes are needed.

And he turns to Makerfield.

Makerfield is no ordinary by election. I’m getting plenty of advice about what I should do – the main piece being, ‘For God’s sake, get some new running shorts.’ [See 12.59am.]

I believe the byelection is very necessary.

In my view, the time has come for a much bigger debate about how politics needs to change if it is to work properly for the north of England, because it doesn’t, it doesn’t. And this is what we’ve got to focus on.

People are losing faith in politics more than anything. That’s what people’s votes were saying on Thursday 7 May.

They deserve a bigger response than politicians have given them before, and that’s what I intend to provide in this by election like no other.

At the Leeds conference, Kim McGuinness, the North East mayor, is speaking now. She says “it’s northerners who will provide this country with the drumbeat of economic growth.” She says:

Already over the last two years, we’ve seen more than £60 billion committed to the North in government funding and private sector investment … That’s forging a new path for trains, turbines and trade and trade.

But it’s not just that thriving economic opportunity that unites the North.

What you get from us is pride – visible, unmistakeable. People choose this northern life. They want to be part of our northern story.

She says one of the problems facing Britain is that “people simply do not feel heard”.

But the mayors in the north are changing that, she says.

It’s a radical shift in the way that people access power in this country. Growth, jobs, delivery. That’s why we’re here. That is our northern story. The prospectus that we’re launching today genuinely presents a new age of ideas and opportunity.

David Lammy, the deputy PM and justice secretary, is due to make a Commons statement at 2.30pm about the youth justice reform and delivery plan.

Here is Kiran Stacey’s story about the plan.

And here is the Ministry of Justice’s news release.

Andy Burnham started his day with a run this morning. His shorts are an improvement on the pair he was wearing at the weekend.

On social media, Burnham has also been defending himself against allegations that his jogging routine is fake.

This is what he posted in reply to a Daily Mail account promoting this story headlined: “Burnham is in the running... but why did the jogging mayor drive home?” Burnham said:

It’s part of my regular routine. I often leave my car at Newton station and do my morning run to pick it up. I did it again today because I had a pint at the match. I would say check it with my neighbours but don’t as they don’t deserve the intrusion on our road.

Burnham also delivered similar messages on X in reply to a GB News presenter and to a pro-Reform UK YouTuber who also claimed his jogging excursions were staged.

At the Downing Street lobby briefing, the PM’s spokesperson declined to repeat Keir Starmer’s claim last week that he would fight any challenge to his position. The spokesperson also declined to repeat what Starmer told the Observer in an interview published a week ago saying he wanted to serve a full second term.

Instead, the spokesperson just told reporters they could refer to the PM’s own words.

Asked if Starmer was still committed to fighting any leadership challenge and serving another 10 years in office, the spokesperson replied:

You’ve got his words, he said I think in that interview you’ve just cited, ‘what I’m doing is spelling out the scale of the challenge that we face, it’s the same argument I was making before the election, which is after the damage of the last government it will take time to clear that damage up and to build the better, stronger country that we need, that’s the decade that I’ve been talking about’.

As I say, the prime minister is fully focused on delivering change for working people and that’s the job he’s getting on with.

Asked repeatedly why they would not repeat that the prime minister will fight the next election, the spokesperson said: “You’ve got his words and I can’t supersede the prime minister’s own words.”

The spokesperson also declined to say whether the PM expected there to be a leadership election. But he pointed out that David Lammy stressed in his interviews this morning that there was no timetable yet for a leadership election.

Yesterday, in a story for the Sun on Sunday, Kate Ferguson said that Rachel Reeves is expected this week to announced that the 5p increase in fuel duty that was due to take effect in the autumn will not now go ahead. Other papers have written this up to.

At the lobby briefing this morning, asked about the story, the PM’s spokesperson said he would not comment on “tax speculation”. But he went on:

We are determined to keep costs down for motorists who are paying more because of the war in Iran. That’s why we extended the 5p fuel duty cut twice, until September, and why we will continue to monitor the situation.

As the chancellor has set out, a rapid de-escalation in the Middle East remains the best way to keep pump prices low.

We we will also take the necessary decisions to help families with the cost of living and protect the public finances.

Opposition parties have for some weeks now been calling for the planned fuel duty increase to be scrapped.

Jakub Krupa writes the Guardian’s Europe live blog.

The European Commission has been asked about its response to the renewed talk about Britain’s potential future attempt to rejoin the European Union – but did not take a bait.

At a briefing this morning, the commission’s chief spokesperson, Paula Pinho, said she would not want to comment “on the situation in Britain” and “the ongoing discussions when it comes too Britain … or any prospects of rejoining the EU.”

She stressed that the two had “an ongoing forum” for discussing progress in bilateral relations and “how we can come close … on a number of areas,” but she cautioned against drawing any far-reaching conclusions. She said:

At this stage, there are discussions on closer cooperation in a number of areas, that’s where we are, and that’s what we are doing precisely in preparation for the next summit rather than speculating about big or renewed issues.

The focus remains on “sectoral discussions” addressing “the reality of the United Kingdom not being an EU member any longer.”

Asked if she could speculate on potential future terms of EU membership should the UK reapply, she declined to engage on this point. She said:

We are not there. If we ever are in that situation, I will gladly reply to [this question].

Today’s Europe live blog is here.

Jessica Elgot is the Guardian’s deputy political editor.

Keir Starmer has been visiting Labour HQ this morning and speaking to staff, saying the party needs to offer “a bit more hope.”

Here’s his speech to staff. Starmer said:

I just wanted to come here to Labour party headquarters to say a big thank you to you. The election results were not the ones that we wanted, they were really tough. But you worked your socks off.

It’s not been easy circumstances in the last 10 days. But you have just got on with the job that we asked you to do.

If you look at just some of the figures that came out last week. We had growth figures that were the best in the G7. That’s because of the hard work that we’ve done in government. On the economy we’ve got ourselves into a good position, having inherited a real basket case from the last government.

The NHS figures were really good, which again vindicates what we did, which was invest in the NHS, which is what we said we would do.

And that’s on top of all the other things … The Employment Rights Act. The biggest upgrade in renters’ rights in a generation.

And then of course all the work that we are doing around child poverty, of which I am really proud. What a game changer that will be for a whole generation and will be measured for years and years to come because the children will feel the impact for the rest of their lives. They will have chances they wouldn’t otherwise have had.

The election results tell us that people are frustrated, they don’t feel that their lives have changed quickly enough.

We need to build up the urgency of what we do. We need a bit more hope in there. And we need to remember at all times what we are here to do. We were elected to government to serve the people of this country.

And I remind myself every day that in July 2024 millions of people voted for us to come into government, to get on with the job, to govern, and to bring about the change that they want.

So I am focused on the job that I was asked to do, which is to serve my country and to carry out my duties as prime minister of this country. Delivering for the very many people who voted us into office, who are saying, ‘just get on with it, get on with the job, get on with the change that I need to see in my life’. And that is what I am going to be doing.

We now have an important by-election coming up. It is Labour versus Reform. We will know very shortly who the candidate is. Whoever they are I am going to support them 100% and I want every member, everyone in our movement, to support them. A Labour candidate to beat Reform. That is the fight that we are in.

Josh Simons has this morning formally resigned as MP for Makerfield.

The Treasury has confirmed the news this morning. In a good example of how British politics can be utterly baffling to outsiders, it has put out a press release saying Simons has been appointed as “steward and bailiff of the Three Hundreds of Chiltern”.

This is a job that does not actually exist. But many years ago it did, and anyone who held the post was no longer allowed to serve as an MP. So this is the Treasury signalling Simons is out of parliament – although nowhere in the press release does it actually say that.

A reader asks:

Would Burnham be required to resign the post of mayor to fight a byelection. Or only in the event of winning one?

Only if he wins.

For a full answer, here is a note the Greater Manchester combined authority sent out last week explaining the legal situation.

The mayor of a strategic authority – as exists in Greater Manchester – may stand as a candidate in a parliamentary election and be elected as an MP.

There is no legal requirement for the mayor of a strategic authority to resign in order to be a candidate in a parliamentary election.

The Police Reform and Social Responsibility Act 2011 states that a mayor who also has police and crime commissioner functions is disqualified from being a police and crime commissioner upon being elected as a member of the House of Commons.

As the mayor of Greater Manchester has the police and crime commissioner functions, they would – if elected as an MP – become disqualified from being mayor.

At this point a vacancy would arise and a mayoral byelection would take place within 35 working days.

Angela Rayner was asked by No 10 last week if she would like to replace Wes Streeting as health secretary, the Times reports.

In their story, Steven Swinford and Geraldine Scott say:

Rayner’s team was contacted by No 10 on Thursday after Streeting left the government with an extraordinary resignation letter in which he condemned the prime minister’s lack of vision and the “drift” of his government …

Starmer has repeatedly said that he wanted her to return to his cabinet and the settling of her dispute with HMRC clears a path back to frontline politics.

However, a government source said that Rayner’s allies made clear during discussions on Thursday afternoon that she would not be interested in returning to Starmer’s cabinet.

Starmer and Rayner did not directly discuss the proposal with each other, the Times says.

Matt Vickers, the Conservative party deputy chair, has confirmed that the party will put up a candidate in the Makerfield byelection – despite some in the party saying it should stand aside for Reform UK.

In a story for the Telegraph, Nick Gutteridge and Pieter Snapvengers say Tory HQ has been under pressure to stand down in Makerfield – in return for Reform UK agreeing to stand down in Aberdeen South, where a byelection is also due and where the Conservative party has a better chance.

Edward Leigh, the Conservative MP and father of the Commons, told the paper:

If doing some kind of deal means we can win Aberdeenshire and save the union then it’s worth doing.

My view is that if at the next general election – and I’ve said this again and again – there are two rightwing parties slugging it off in every single constituency, as night follows day there will be a leftwing government.

And if in any by-election there will be two rightwing parties fighting each other then, as night follows day, there will be leftwing victory.

But Vickers told Sky News this morning:

We’re going to be putting forward our pitch. The reality is people in Makerfield who want to see the welfare state reduced, so the system actually works for people... those people are going to have a choice on that ballot paper. They can go out there and vote for Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives.

Local election results suggest Reform UK in theory should be on course to win Makerfield, where Labour’s Josh Simons resigned to free up a seat for Andy Burnham, quite easily. But Burnham is remarkably popular in the Greater Manchester area, and some election experts think that his personal appeal will outweigh the disadvantage of being the Labour candidate. Election Maps UK has produced this forecast, based on polling from Gorton and Denton where people were asked, after the byelection, if they would have voted differently if Burnham had been on the ballot.

Makerfield By-Election Forecast:

With Burnham:

LAB: 45%

RFM: 42%

Without Burnham:

RFM: 53%

LAB: 27%

Via @Survation

There will be a byelection in Aberdeen South because the SNP’s Stephen Flynn has to give up his seat after being elected to the Scottish parliament. In 2024 Flynn had a majority of 3,758 over Labour, with the Conservative candidate just 155 votes behind.

In almost all his interviews this morning, David Lammy, the deputy PM, urged Labour to abandon infighting, warning that if the party did not unite, it would pave the way for a Reform UK election victory.

He told Sky News:

Now is the time to stop the own goals, to get on the pitch, to pass the ball amongst ourselves, to play in the right direction, to score some goals on behalf of the British public.

Introspection and internecine warfare – effectively, some of our colleagues lighting the match and standing in the petrol – that is not what’s going to deliver for the British people.

That’s not what’s going to deliver for the British people. What that will usher in is Farage.

Good morning. Harold Wilson was right; a week is a long time etc etc. Seven days ago, the biggest threat to Keir Starmer was a half-baked challenge from Catherine West. A week on, with Andy Burnham on a viable path back to Westminster within the next few weeks, it now seems more likely than not that Burnham will be prime minister by the autumn, perhaps earlier, and that Keir Starmer will be out.

We are likely to hear from Starmer himself this morning. In the meantime, David Lammy, the deputy PM, has been doing a broadcast round. As Peter Walker reports, Lammy has insisted that Starmer is not about to set out a timetable for his departure.

This is the public position. But, in private, Starmer’s position seems to be a bit more nuanced; in his story from yesterday, Kiran Stacey quoted a friend of Starmer’s as saying: “[Starmer’s] position is not ‘I will stand, come what may’. It depends on what happens, but at the same time it’s about not rushing to positions that might suit particular other factions in the Labour party.”

Burnham is not the only candidate to be next Labour leader. Wes Streeting, the former health secretary, wants the job too and at the weekend he declared that he wanted to see the UK rejoin the EU.

Burnham’s allies interpreted this as a hostile act because it puts Burnham under pressure to either endorse the idea, which won’t be popular in Makerfield, the leave-voting constituency where he wants to fight the byelection, or to distance himself from it (despite the fact that he is on the record as also saying the UK should rejoin eventually), which won’t be popular with Labour’s pro-EU membership.

In his interview on the Today programme, Lammy dismissed this a “sixth form debate”. Asked about Europe, he said that Labour was elected on a manifesto that ruled out joining the single market or the customs union. Asked what should be in the next manifesto, he said he did not want to discuss something that might be three years away. He also said Labour should be focusing on delivery, not on internal arguments.

We have the opportunity of a lifetime to deliver on behalf of the British people. This is not a sixth form debate. It is delivery on behalf of the British people.

Asked what he meant by a sixth form debate, he replied:

Across the country in sixth forms, you can discuss what the position should be on Europe.

Lammy also claimed that Labour could not afford for this sort of internal debate to last much longer.

I say to colleagues, 10 days of this fine, I think the British people will forgive us for the introspection. Ten weeks of this and we’re in desperate trouble, we will be out of office, and what will be ushering in is [Nigel] Farage.

In one respect, the “sixth form debate” line sounded a patronising way to describe a key question facing Britain’s future. But, in another respect, Lammy was right to argue that debating EU membership now is not particularly relevant. There is no way that Brussels would want to open serious talks on re-entry with a country where there is a strong prospect of Reform UK forming the next government and, as the (pro-British) Polish foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski, recently warned, EU members think there is no point holding negotiations until the British realise that any future membership deal won’t be as good as the one we had before.

Here is the agenda for the day.

Morning: Keir Starmer is expected to speak to the media while on a visit with the new health secretary, James Murray.

11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.

Lunchtime: Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor and potential Labour candidate for Makerfield, is due to speak at the Great North Investment Summit in Leeds.

Early afternoon: Nicola Ranger, general secretary of the Royal College of Nursing, speaks at the RCN conference.

2.30pm: MPs resume their debate on the king’s speech, focusing on business.

If you want to contact me, please post a message below the line when comments are open (between 10am and 3pm), or message me on social media. I can’t read all the messages BTL, but if you put “Andrew” in a message aimed at me, I am more likely to see it because I search for posts containing that word.

If you want to flag something up urgently, it is best to use social media. You can reach me on Bluesky at @andrewsparrowgdn.bsky.social. The Guardian has given up posting from its official accounts on X, but individual Guardian journalists are there, I still have my account, and if you message me there at @AndrewSparrow, I will see it and respond if necessary.

I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos. No error is too small to correct. And I find your questions very interesting too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either BTL or sometimes in the blog.