Over in Edinburgh, NatWest bank has begun its annual meeting with shareholders, and then briskly adjourned it.

There was some shouting, and then some singing, audible on the live feed from the AGM before it was suspended – for 15 minutes, although it’s been longer now….

Campaign groups had already called for protest votes against the bank’s chair, Rick Haythornthwaite, today, amid accusation of ‘climate backtracking’ by the bank.

Reuters are reporting that climate protesters disrupted the meeting, according to a spokesperson.

UK grocery inflation has slowed this month, new data shows, despite the disruption caused by the Iran war.

Worldpanel by Numerator has reported that like-for-like grocery inflation fell to 3.8% in the four weeks to 19 April, which is the lowest rate in a year.

Prices are rising fastest in markets such as medicines & treatments, fresh unprocessed meat and fresh unprocessed fish, and are falling fastest in chilled butter & spreads, sugar confectionery and household paper.

The survey found that shoppers are seeking out deals due to concerns about rising prices – spending on promoted items rose by 7.8% year on year.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel by Numerator, explains:

“Concerns about the impact of the Middle East conflict on prices of everyday goods are front of mind for British households. Already feeling the squeeze at the petrol pump, shoppers are responding by turning to special offers in growing numbers when buying groceries.”

A laden Japan-linked supertanker appears to sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, in what may be the first attempt by an oil carrier from the country to leave the Gulf since the Iran war began.

Bloomberg has the details:

The Idemitsu Maru began sailing late Monday toward the strait from northwest of Abu Dhabi, where it had idled for more than a week, tracking data show.

It appeared to turn north toward Iran’s Qeshm and Larak Islands, then sail past Larak toward the eastern side of the strait. It’s carrying 2 million barrels of crude loaded from Saudi Arabia’s Juaymah terminal in early March.

At the start of April a liquefied natural gas tanker co-owned by the Japanese company Mitsui OSK Lines sailed through the strait.

The UK government should ‘get a grip’ on energy companies, banks or weapons makers who make excessive profits from the Iran war, and tax those earnings, says Caitlin Boswell, deputy director at Tax Justice UK.

“It is outrageous that households are getting hammered on all sides from rising bills and prices of essentials, while companies like BP are doubling their profits, all from the same crisis. The government needs to get a grip on the situation to stop companies from callous profiteering, whether in the energy sector, banking or defense.

We need the government to remain steadfast in maintaining the windfall tax on oil and gas companies, and apply additional excess profits taxes on those profiting from the crisis. That way, the government can recoup all unearned profits to help people get through the affordability crisis and make the UK more resilient to future shocks.”

The surge in energy prices since the Iran war began has pushed up inflation expectations across the eurozone.

New data from the European Central Bank this morning shows that median inflation expectations for the next 12 months and for three years ahead have “increased significantly” this month.

The ECB says:

In March, the median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months increased to 3.5%, from 3.0% in February.

Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months and expectations for inflation three years ahead, which both stood at 2.5% in February, increased in March to 4.0% and 3.0% respectively.

Central banks such as the ECB will use inflation expectations for signs that the jump in energy prices is leading to ‘second round’ effects – higher prices for other goods, or higher wages. Its target is for inflation to run at 2% in the medium term.

A consumer group is taking the City watchdog to court in the hope of overhauling a £9.1bn compensation scheme that it claims massively shortchanges victims of the UK car loan scandal.

Consumer Voice has filed a legal challenge to the scheme, in an attempt to change the way compensation is calculated. It fears millions of consumers could otherwise be left out of pocket by hundreds of pounds per claim.

The Guardian reported last week that Consumer Voice was considering a legal challenge against the FCA’s redress programme, which was introduced because some drivers were overcharged for loans as a result of commission payments between lenders and car dealers between 2007 and 2024.

Consumer Voice has also accused the Financial Conduct Authority of designing a scheme that “protects the very firms that failed to follow the law and the rules when these loans were sold”.

Alex Neill, co-founder of Consumer Voice, says

“We support a redress scheme, but this one does not go far enough. Millions of drivers were overcharged through hidden and unfair commission, yet the FCA’s scheme risks leaving many of them missing out on hundreds of pounds they’re owed.

“People have already been let down once by lenders. They should not now be let down again by the regulator that is supposed to protect them. The FCA needs to fix the scheme to ensure it delivers fair and lawful compensation for drivers.”

Last week, the FCA defended its scheme, saying it was “the quickest, fairest way to compensate consumers”, and warning that a legal challenges could delay payouts for millions of people.

The head of Japan’s central bank has warned that the Iran war will threaten growth in the world’s fourth-largest economy.

Japan imports nearly all its crude oil for domestic consumption, meaning it is particularly vulnerable to supply disruption and higher prices.

Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda told reporters (translation by Reuters):

“Given high uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict, the likelihood of achieving our forecasts has diminished. On the other hand, there is both big downside risk to growth and upside risk to inflation mainly for fiscal 2026. At present, it’s hard to judge the duration and impact on the economy and prices now. The BOJ wants to spend a bit more time scrutinising how the Middle East conflict affects the economy and prices, and whether growth and inflation risks could change.”

Ueda was speaking after the BoJ left interest rates on hold today in a 6-3 split, with three policymakers voting to raise interest rates.

He explained that the BoJ would need to tighten policy if inflation “clearly overshoots” its target, saying:

“We don’t see a strong chance of Japan experiencing a repeat of the 1970s-style oil shock. But one thing in common is that our policy interest rate is below levels deemed neutral to the economy. We will take that into account in guiding policy.”

BP is walking “a tightrope” after its profit bonanza in the first quarter of the year, reports Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at investing and trading platform IG:

“BP’s surge in profits will have other sectors green with envy, but the situation gets trickier from here

Trump’s war has delivered a bonanza for the company and its shareholders, but it is uncomfortably aware that, while oil prices are likely to stay elevated, it is likely to face major disruption due to that same conflict. A lot of that might be offset by higher oil prices, and the shares have taken the optimistic view in early trading.”

Those BP shares are now up 2.8%, still leading the risers on the FTSE 100 share index this morning.

Elsewhere in the energy industry, the sale of the Prax Lindsey oil refinery in north Lincolnshire to US energy company Phillips 66 has been completed.

Back in January, Phillips 66 struck a deal to buy the Prax site after the company collapsed into administration last summer, and integrate it with its nearby Humber refinery.

The deal will save some jobs at Prax.

Of the remaining employees at the sites, 109 have been retained by Phillips 66, and 55 will be made redundant, according to the Insolvency Service.

Official Receiver Gareth Allen says:

The sale of Lindsey Oil Refinery’s assets following a liquidation is the best possible outcome, and this is now complete.

My thanks to the team at the Insolvency Service and the special managers at FTI Consulting LLP.

I am grateful for the commitment, patience and understanding of the leadership team and employees at the site during this time.

Although rising energy prices are great news for oil and gas producers, they’re a blow to other businesses, such as housebuilders.

This morning, Taylor Wimpey has reported that the cost of building a home is being pushed up, telling shareholders:

As a result of rising energy costs, build cost inflation is now expected to be low to mid single digit for 2026, with cost pressure and surcharges starting to come through from our supply chain.

The company also reported a small slowdown in sales, which are running at 0.74 per outlet per week so far this year, down from 0.77 at this stage of 2025.

Shares in Taylor Wimpey are down 4%, with other housebuilding stocks such as Persimmon (-2.2%) and Barratt Redrow (-1.1%) also lower this morning.

Shares in BP have jumped at the start of trading in London.

BP are leading the risers on the FTSE 100 share index, up 2.1% at 584p, their highest level in over a week.

The deadlock in the Middle East confict has pushed the Brent crude oil price up to a three week high today.

Brent crude is up 1.75% at over $110 a barrel, for the first time since the US-Iran ceasefire was agreed on 7 April.

There are reports overnight that President Donald Trump is ‌unhappy with an Iranian proposal to end the conflict, and reopen the strait of Hormuz, because it did not address Iran’s nuclear program.

One US official has been quoted saying:

“He doesn’t love ​the proposal.”

Campaign group Global Witness point out that the Middle East conflict is the second event to give BP ‘bumper profits’ in the last four years.

Patrick Galey, head of news investigations at Global Witness, said:

“It is horrifying to see BP’s profits grow as millions suffer the fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran. Unfortunately we’ve been here before – when Russia invaded Ukraine 4 years ago we saw big oil firms make bumper profits from spiralling fuel costs.

As oil prices drive up bills once again, it’s clear that fossil fuel companies don’t enhance affordability or energy security, they make life worse. They destroy the climate, push up the cost of living, and rake in billions in profit while innocent civilians die.

It’s well overdue that we make oil companies pay for the damage their doing. If they broke it, they need to fix it. It’s clear they can afford to.

BP profits, we all pay.”

Looking ahead, BP expects a drop in fossil fuel production in the current quarter, partly due to the Iran war.

It says:

Looking ahead, bp expects second quarter 2026 reported upstream production to be lower compared with the first quarter 2026, due to seasonal maintenance predominantly in the Gulf of America and the effects of disruption in the Middle East.

It also expect volumes and fuels margins to “remain sensitive to conditions and developments in the Middle East”.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

The Iran war has helped BP to double its profits in the first quarter of this year, its latest financial results show.

The oil major has just reported that it made a profit of nearly $3.2bn in the first three months of 2026, on its favoured ‘underlying replacement cost’ earnings measure.

That’s higher than City analysts had predicted, with BP - which was hit by a shareholder rebellion last week – giving some of the credit to an “exceptional” contribution from its oil trading operations.

These quarterly profits are up from $1.54bn in the fourth quarter of 2025, and $1.38bn in the first quarter of last year.

Q1 2026 includes the surge in oil and gas prices in March, after the war began at the end of February, disrupting energy supplies from the region.

BP’s new CEO, Meg O’Neill, acknowledges the impact of the Middlle East conflict, saying the company is working in an “environment of conflict and complexity”.

O’Neill says BP is “working with customers and governments to get fuel where it’s needed” – at a time when fears of jet fuel shortages are growing.

She adds:

Overall, our business continues to run well. This was another quarter of strong operational and financial delivery, and we made further progress towards our 2027 targets. We had high plant reliability, high refining availability and increased production in the Gulf of America and at bpx Energy, our US onshore business - keeping production levels steady despite the ongoing disruption.

The surge in energy prices is worrying central banks, many of whom are setting interest rates this week.

Overnight, the Bank of Japan left borrowing costs unchanged, but three policymakers did break ranks and vote for a hike….

The agenda

• 9am BST: ECB survey of Consumer Inflation Expectations in the eurozone (timing corrected)

• 2pm BST: US house price data: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM

• 3pm BST: US consumer confidence data