Julia Kollewe 

Oil prices, stock markets slide as coronavirus cases rise – as it happened

Covid-19 concerns and pessimism that a US fiscal stimulus package can be passed before next week’s election drag markets lower
  
  

Skyscrapers in the City of London financial district.
Skyscrapers in the City of London financial district. Photograph: Hannah McKay/Reuters

Closing summary

Stock and commodity markets have had a rough start to the week, as new coronavirus cases in the US and France hit record levels, and Spain and Italy brought in night-time curfews. The Spanish government declared a six-month state of emergency.

Moreover, hopes that a US fiscal stimulus package can be agreed before next week’s election are fading fast. Germany’s closely watched Ifo business confidence survey came in worse than expected and showed the first decline since April, raising fears of a double-dip recession.

The sell-off in US and the major European stock markets gathered pace in the past few minutes.

  • UK’s FTSE 100 down 33 points, or 0.57%, at 5,826
  • Germany’s Dax down 3.24% at 12,239
  • France’s CAC down 1.41% at 4,840
  • Italy’s FSE MiB down 1.2% at 19,048
  • US’s Dow Jones down 528 points, or 1.87%, at 27,806
  • Nasdaq down 0.73% at 11,463
  • S&P 500 down 1.47% at 3,414

Oil prices fell sharply, on expectations that Libya will ramp up oil production while the coronavirus restrictions will hold back economic activity and lead to lower demand globally. Brent crude is down $1.29 at $40.48 a barrel, a 3.09% drop, while US crude has lost 3.36% to $38.51 a barrel.

There was some good news on the vaccine front, however. AstraZeneca said this morning that the Covid-19 vaccine it is developing with Oxford University produces an immune response in both elderly and young people, and there were fewer adverse reactions among the elderly. Older people are most at risk from coronavirus and their immune systems tend to be weaker than those of younger people.

With this, I am signing off for today. We’ll be back tomorrow. Thank you for reading, and good-bye! - JK

Tomorrow, the airplane engine maker Rolls-Royce will ask shareholders for £2bn to help it survive the pandemic. Shareholder advisory groups Glass Lewis and Institutional Shareholder Services have urged investors to back the fundraising.

Shareholders can buy 10 new shares for every three they own at 32p each. The company made a £5.4bn loss in the first half of the year and needs to repay £3.2bn of debt at the end of next year. As demand for its engines has fallen, Rolls’ market value has plummeted from more than £20bn two years ago to £4.7bn, roughly the same as the online fashion retailer Asos.

The aviation industry has been hit hard by the pandemic, which has led to a slump in airline travel due to ongoing travel restrictions.

Updated

‘Generation Covid’ has been hit hard by the pandemic, new research has found.

BBC Panorama said people aged 16-25 were more than twice as likely as older workers to have lost their job, while six in 10 suffered a drop in their earnings, according to the research, which also looked at the impact of school closures on young people.

A quarter of pupils – some 2.5 million children – had no schooling or tutoring during lockdown, the survey by the London School of Economics found.

But, nearly three quarters of private school pupils had full days of teaching (74%) – almost twice the proportion of state school pupils (38%). You can read more here.

While oil prices are still down more than 2%, the oil cartel Opec’s secretary general said today that he did not expect another collapse in oil prices, as seen in the second quarter.

Speaking at the virtual India Energy Forum by CERAWeek, Mohammad Barkindo said producers in the Opec+ alliance, which also includes Russia, would continue to “stay the course” in balancing the market.

US oil prices fell below zero for the first time on record in April after oil producers ran out of space to store the oversupply of crude left by the coronavirus crisis, triggering an historic market collapse which left oil traders reeling.

Wall Street has opened lower.

The Dow Jones fell nearly 150 points, or 0.5%, to 28,185, while the S&P 500 dropped 24 points, or 0.69%, to 3,441 and the Nasdaq lost more than 100 points to 11,440, a 0.9% drop, at the opening bell. The S&P 500 has extended losses and is now down more than 1%.

Business class meals sold by Finland’s national carrier Finnair at a supermarket near the Helsinki international airport have proved a hit, with 1,600 meals sold within days.

For €12.9 per takeaway meal, shoppers can choose between beef with teriyaki-radish sauce served with grilled spring onion and rice, or smoked arctic char with chantarelle risotto.

Finnair plans to sell its airplane meals in other supermarkets, as it battles to limit job losses at its catering division in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. The airline said last week it would cut around 700 jobs by March.

Marika Nieminen, the head of Finnair Kitchen, told Reuters:

There are redundancies and layoffs going on already at Finnair and we are trying our best to find new innovative ways.

She said the catering firm plans to introduce new dishes, including reindeer meat from Finnish Lapland and Japanese-style pork shoulder, for supermarkets.

Kimmo Sivonen, a shopkeeper at Kesko’s K-Citymarket Tammisto in Vantaa said:

We have had very much positive feedback from our customers and this product has become one of the best selling products in our store.

It is certainly cheaper than the up to £360 per head diners have paid to eat a meal on a stationary Singapore Airlines plane parked at Changi Airport, keen to recreate the onboard experience without leaving the ground.

The German government expects growth in Europe’s largest economy to decline slightly less than previously expected this year, Reuters reported, citing a source.

The government now expects the economy to decline by 5.5% in 2020 rather than 5.8%. For 2021, the government will confirm its forecast for GDP growth of 4.4% when it publishes its latest forecasts on Wednesday.

Sterling rises on Brexit optimism

The pound is trading higher against the dollar and the euro, as Brexit talks in London have been extended to Wednesday. After that talks will continue in Brussels. Sterling is up 0.14% at $1.3059, and 0.45% higher at €1.1039.

It looks like progress is being made in the negotiations, with fishing the biggest sticking point. Ireland’s deputy prime minister Leo Varadkar believes that the UK and the European Union can strike a free trade deal in coming weeks, he said on Sunday. He told RTE radio:

It’s by no means guaranteed but I think on the balance of probabilities it will be possible to agree a free trade agreement with the UK which means there will be no quotas and no tariffs.

Updated

The FTSE 100 index in London has fallen back again and is trading nearly 32 points lower at 5,828, a 0.55% drop.

Germany’s Dax has lost 2.07% after the software group SAP slashed its revenue forecast for this year, triggering a 17% fall in its share price. France’s CAC is 0.5% lower and Italy’s FTSE MiB has fallen 0.9%.

US stock futures are pointing to a lower open on Wall Street later. The Dow Jones is expected to open more than 260 points lower, a 0.9% drop, while the Nasdaq is seen down 92 points, a 0.79% fall, and the S&P 500 is set to drop almost 32 points, or 0.9%.

New coronavirus infections reached record levels over the weekend and El Paso in Texas asked residents to stay at home for the next two weeks. France has also seen new cases rise to record levels.

Updated

Here’s more on the meeting of China’s top leaders in Beijing.

China’s top leaders have begun a meeting on boosting the economy’s self-reliance as the country turns inward amid diplomatic tensions and the coronavirus crisis.

The four-day session known as the plenum, which will determine China’s policy goals for the next five years, began on Monday behind closed doors in Beijing. While the new economic plan will only be made public just before approval by the rubber-stamping legislature, the National People’s Congress, details released after the close of the plenum provide key clues as to Chinese Communist party’s new priorities.

The meeting is being held amid a deteriorating global economy, historically tense ties between China and the US, and an increasingly difficult international environment for Beijing as it comes under scrutiny for alleged human rights abuses and political repression in Xinjiang and Hong Kong and questions about its transparency when the Covid-19 outbreak emerged in Wuhan in December.

In currency markets, the pound has stabilised against the dollar at $1.3043 and is up 0.4% against the euro, at 90.54p.

Brexit negotiations have been extended to Wednesday, with the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier, heading back to London for more talks.

Updated

Here is a brief summary of the Ifo findings, from the institute:

In manufacturing, the business climate indicator is back in positive territory for the first time since June 2019. A great many more companies were satisfied with their current situation. In the last quarter, companies managed to increase their capacity utilization considerably from 75.3 points to 79.8 points. However, recent optimism about the coming months has evaporated.

In the service sector, however, the business climate worsened notably. Service providers were less satisfied with their current situation. Moreover, their optimism of recent months with regard to the business outlook has disappeared.

In trade, the Business Climate Index fell slightly. While companies are more pessimistic about the coming months, they were more satisfied with their current business situation.

In construction, too, the business climate stopped climbing. Companies corrected their very strong assessments of the current situation noticeably downward. Their expectations also turned somewhat more pessimistic.

He is not the only one to talk about the risk of a double-dip recession.

Carsten Brzeski, global head of Macro at ING, says the worsening in the Ifo business climate index marks “the end of the [economic] rebound and the start of double-dip fears”.

After several leading indicators pointing to a weakening of the economy, Germany’s most prominent leading indicator, the Ifo index, has finally joined the crowd. Until September, the Ifo index seemed to be defying growing pessimism but after five consecutive increases, it dropped in October for the first time since April.

Looking ahead, as painful as the ‘smart’ lockdowns are for the already hard-hit sectors, the impact on the total economy will be much less accentuated than at the start of the crisis. However, with even more social distancing restrictions on the horizon, there is a significant risk that ‘smart’ lockdowns across Europe turn into more severe ones, which in turn would bring the third quarter rebound to an abrupt halt in the last few months of the year.

At face value, today’s Ifo index is not weak enough to fear another collapse of the economy but as all of Europe is in the second wave of the virus, today’s Ifo index definitely marks the end of the rebound and the start of double-dip fears.

Updated

Mid-morning summary

The FTSE 100 index in London briefly turned positive and is now flat, while European indices have also clawed back some ground, although they remain firmly in the red, with Germany’s Dax down 2.1%, France’s CAC 0.5% lower and Italy’s FTSE MiB losing 0.85%.

No doubt traders have been cheered somewhat by comments from AstraZeneca that the coronavirus vaccine the drugmaker is developing with Oxford University produces an immune response in old and young people, and that adverse reactions have been lower in older people.

However, coronavirus cases are rising rapidly around the world and it seems increasingly unlikely that a US fiscal stimulus package can be agreed before next week’s election.

The closely-watched monthly business confidence survey from Germany’s Ifo institute came in worse than expected this morning.

Its business climate index fell to 92.7 from a downwardly revised 93.2 in September, after five months of gains.

Ifo president Clemens Fuest said:

Companies are considerably more sceptical regarding developments over the coming months. In view of rising infection numbers, German business is becoming increasingly worried.

Oil has sold off today, after news of a ‘permanent’ ceasefire between warring factions in Libya raised expectations that oil production will start to ramp up once more. As the second Covid-19 wave worsens, prompting more government restrictions that will hold back economic activity, experts are also expecting less demand for crude going forward.

Brent crude and US crude have both lost more than a dollar. Brent crude is down 2.25% to $40.83 a barrel while US crude has lost 2.36% to $38.91 a barrel.

Updated

German business confidence worse than expected

The German Ifo business climate index is worse than expected at 92.7, down from a revised 93.2 in September and versus expectations of a reading of 93.

Updated

The FTSE 100 index is now just 0.2% lower, a loss of 11.48 points, at 5,848, while other European indices have suffered heavier losses.

Germany’s Dax is still down 2.27% at 12,358 after the German software firm SAP said profit and sales declined in the three months to 30 September, and downgraded its outlook. SAP shares plunged as much as 20% and are still down 16.7% at €104.

Updated

AstraZeneca: Covid-19 vaccine prompts immune response in old and young people

On a more positive note... AstraZeneca said this morning that the Covid-19 vaccine it is developing with Oxford University produces an immune response in both elderly and young people, and there were fewer adverse reactions among the elderly.

A spokesman told Reuters:

It is encouraging to see immunogenicity responses were similar between older and younger adults, and that reactogenicity was lower in older adults, where the Covid-19 disease severity is higher.

The comments came after the Financial Times reported that the vaccine has led to a robust immune response in older people – who are most at risk from coronavirus – by triggering protective antibodies and T-cells.

Updated

The UK health secretary, Matt Hancock, has just said that “we’re not there yet” on a coronavirus vaccine, and that he does not expect hospitals to get it this year.

On my central expectation, I would expect the bulk of the roll-out to be in the first half of next year.

We want to be ready in case everything goes perfectly but it’s not my central expectation that we’ll be doing that this year but the programme is progressing well, we’re not there yet.

He also told BBC Breakfast that the government would “rule nothing out” on the prospect of a new fourth tier of measures, a fortnight after a three-tired restrictions system was brought in.

Updated

Boots launches rapid Covid-19 tests

Here in the UK, Boots has announced that it will offer rapid Covid-19 tests in some stores, for £120. The LumiraDx device can produce a swab test result within just 12 minutes, giving customers same-day results, the chain said.

Boots cautioned that this test is not approved as a pre-flight testing service, which requires a PCR test and for results to be processed at a registered lab. But it could give people peace of mind before they visit friends or family.

The pharmacy chain has also launched a PCR test – which is widely used within the NHS – where swabs will be sent to a lab to be processed, and results are usually available within 48 hours.

This is available in in 10 stores across London, Birmingham, Manchester, Edinburgh and Glasgow and will be be rolled out in 50 Boots stores next month. It could be extended to 200 shops over the coming months. The test can be used by people travelling to countries that require a test.

Both tests are for people who don’t have coronavirus symptoms, and can be booked on the Boots website.

Updated

European stock markets slide

European stock markets have posted chunky losses at the open.

  • UK’s FTSE 100 index down 0.8% at 5,812
  • Germany’s Dax down 2.7%
  • France’s CAC down 1.3%
  • Spain’s Ibex down 1.3%

Updated

Introduction: Covid-19 concerns and pessimism around US stimulus package weigh on markets

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

After a choppy week, European stock markets rallied on Friday on news that Gilead Sciences’ Remdesivir drug received approval from the US regulator as a treatment for Covid-19 (the first FDA approved treatment), but markets still finished the week down.

This morning, oil prices have fallen more than 2% and Asian shares are mostly down. Rising coronavirus cases around the world and new government restrictions, along with growing doubts that a US fiscal stimulus package can be passed before next week’s election, are weighing on markets.

The US has announced its highest ever number of new Covid-19 cases in the past two days and Spain has declared a state of emergency. The virus has infected more than 42 million people globally and led to 1.1 million deaths. You can read more on our coronavirus live blog here:

Brent crude, the global benchmark, has lost almost a dollar, or 2.27%, to $40.82 a barrel while US light crude is down 2.43% at $38.88 a barrel.

David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets UK, explains:

Oil is under pressure on the back of concerns that supply from Libya will rise as rival factions have called a ceasefire and that should pave the way for an increase in output. The worries about rising coronavirus cases in Europe and the US has sparked demand concerns.

Almost half of British small businesses (48%) fear the impact of the second coronavirus wave, far more than they fear the impact of Brexit (24%), according to research from business finance provider Nucleus Commercial Finance released today.

Small and medium-sized firms are also concerned about how their business will survive reduced consumer spending due to lack of financial confidence (28%) and their ability to recover from the impact of coronavirus (25%). In contrast, nearly a fifth (18%) of SMEs said they were not fearful of anything.

Businesses have adapted by shifting teams to remote working (27%), offering their products and services online (19%), and a further 13% have started offering new products and services.

One more week to go in the US presidential race. Markets have moved to price in the chance of a Democratic president and Senate, which would probably mean more government spending and borrowing. This has driven up US 10-year Treasury yields to their highest levels since early June.

Analysts at NatWest Markets said:

We have raised the probability of a Democratic sweep, already our base case, from 40% to just over 50%, and have increased our expectation of Biden to win from 65% to 75%. We see steeper US yield curves and a weaker US dollar as likely to prevail in our base case.

The Democrats face a tough challenge to reclaim control of the Senate. They are up against the Republicans’ 53-47 majority. With 35 seats up for re-election it will probably come down to seven key races.

In Beijing, the central committee of China’s ruling Communist party led by president Xi Jinping is meeting this week to map out an economic plan for the next five years. Markets are wondering whether China’s leaders will be more flexible in terms of growth targets, after dropping this year’s target because of the pandemic.

The economic calendar is light today, with the German business confidence survey from the Munich-based Ifo Institute for Economic Research the main event.

Later in the week, the Bank of Canada, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank hold their monthly meetings. Markets are not expecting much action this week, but the ECB could pave the way for more stimulus in December.

The Agenda

9am GMT: Germany Ifo business confidence for October (forecast: 93; previous: 93.4)

2pm GMT: US New Home sales for September (forecast: 2.8% month on month)

Updated

 

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