Chancellor Rishi Sunak is currently setting out how the government will help the self-employed in the UK.

You can follow all of the announcements here:

Today’s dollar weakness has put sterling on track for its biggest daily gain in three years says Reuters.

Here are snippets from the report, with the pound trading at $1.2170 as I type:

The pound was last trading above $1.21, after falling as low as $1.14 last week, levels not seen since 1985. It is heading for its best week since 2009, up 4% since Monday.

Sterling has been hammered in recent weeks as fears about the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic sent investors scrambling for dollars - the world’s most liquid currency and one seen as a safe haven in times of crisis.

The US currency lost some ground against major currencies on Thursday after data showed an unprecedented surge in Americans filing for unemployment benefits, as firms shut down in an attempt to stem the spread of the virus.

Peter Tuchman, Wall Street’s most famous face, has tested positive for Covid-19.

The New York Stock Exchange trader is the most photographed man on the exchange floor and his face is almost inescapable when the stock markets hit the headlines.

Thankfully Tuchman seems to be doing well and has some good advice for the rest of us: “Guys stay home you do not want to get this.”

The FTSE 100 close is confirmed at 5,815.73 points, a gain of 127 points or 2.2%.

The mid-cap FTSE 250 gained 3.78% to reach 15,380 points.

Stocks across Europe have gained ground for the third day in a row - although we haven’t seen a repeat of this week’s dramatic rally at the end of the trading session.

The European Stoxx 600 gained 1.9%, helped along by a 1.5% for France’s Cac 40 and , 0.9% for Germany’s Dax, according to preliminary data.

In the UK the provisional close on the FTSE 100 has come in at 1.5%: a good day then, if not quite matching the historic surges seen this week.

NMC Health, the embattled operator of Middle Eastern private hospitals that is listed in London, has just revealed a new chairman who also led an investment in the company this week.

Mark Tompkins resigns as non-executive chairman after “a period of ill health over the last few weeks which has prevented him from participation in board activities”. However, “this decision was taken as a result of the difficult period which NMC has faced”.

He will be replaced by Faisal Belhoul, who will be executive chairman. Belhoul was the founder of Amanat Holdings, another Middle Eastern healthcare company, and he is the founder of Ithmar Capital, which has bought a 9% stake in NMC.

NMC’s statement on the appointment gives a flavour of the challenge he faces:

The board has decided that the appointment of an executive chairman based in the United Arab Emirates is appropriate given the challenging period the Company is facing at the current time as it reviews previous financial irregularities; discusses its debt position with its lenders; focuses on preserving value for its stakeholders; and continues to deliver outstanding levels of care to patients.

Here are some of the troubles on NMC’s plate:

• On Tuesday it revealed its debt pile is actually $6.6bn, much higher than earlier estimates, and that it has appointed a former PwC partner as chief restructuring officer to tackle the problem.
• Cheques that could go up to $50m may have been used as security for financing arrangements for the benefit of third parties, NMC said.
• Finance chief Prasanth Shenoy departed this week after a period of extended leave for ill health.
• Its shares were suspended this week.
• It has commissioned an investigation by an ex FBI director.
• The coronavirus pandemic could put strain on its healthcare facilities.
  

Short sellers Muddy Waters sparked the crisis at NMC, saying it was overvalued - but even they had no idea what would subsequently come out.

People holding pounds have had a pleasant afternoon: sterling is now up by 2.1% against the US dollar, at about $1.2135.

The euro has gained 1.2% today against the dollar, trading at $1.10.

It’s indicative of a broad retreat by the dollar against most of the major currencies, after a period in which companies around the world were scrambling to get hold of the greenback any which way they could.

It looks like the US market rally might have more steam in it as the dance towards the official confirmation of the stimulus deal continues.

The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones industrial average have both topped 5% gains for today, and the Nasdaq is up by 4%.

CNBC is crediting US House speaker Nancy Pelosi, who indicated that the stimulus will pass:

And it’s Jasper Jolly taking over from Graeme Wearden to take you through to the European market close.

The International Monetary Fund is urging global leaders to help it provide more emergency funding for the coronavirus crisis.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has told the G20 leaders that the Fund needs to double its emergency financing capacity. That would help it fight the impact of the global recession, particularly in emerging markets.

Georgieva told G20 world leaders today:

We project a contraction of global output in 2020, and recovery in 2021. How deep the contraction and how fast the recovery depends on the speed of containment of the pandemic and on how strong and coordinated our monetary and fiscal policy actions are.

“You, the G20 leaders, have already taken extraordinary steps to save lives and safeguard your economies.

“Particularly critical is the targeted fiscal support to vulnerable households and to large and small businesses, so they can stay afloat and get quickly back to work. Otherwise it will take years to overcome the effects of widespread bankruptcies and layoffs.

US stock markets have surged spectacularly over the last three days, after hitting their lowest levels since late 2016 on Monday:

The pound is rallying against the US dollar this afternoon, up nearly one and a half cents at $1.2030.

That’s its highest level in over a week, pulling sterling back from the 35-year lows struck last Friday.

Sterling is a little higher against the euro too, at €1.095, as investors move back into riskier currencies.

My US colleagues have also written about Fed chair Jerome Powell’s unusual TV interview today:

Here’s a flavour:

The Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, said on Thursday that the US may already be in recession and warned that the time for lifting societal restrictions that have squashed the economy would be dictated by the coronavirus outbreak – in contrast to Donald Trump’s aspiration to return to normal life by Easter.

In a rare live television interview for a Fed chair, the morning after the US Senate passed a $2.2tn disaster funding package, Powell said that America’s central bank would not “run out of ammo” in its efforts to support the economy through this “unique” crisis, but gave no assurances on how long the US will be partially shut down.

“We are not an expert in pandemics over here, we want to listen to the [health] experts,” he told NBC’s Today program on Thursday morning.

The only individual Powell referred to during his interview was not the president or any of his political aides, but Dr Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert and the leading public health figure on the White House coronavirus taskforce.

Asked by the Today anchor Savannah Guthrie whether the public should pay more attention to Trump’s bullish projections of everyone soon returning to work normally or health experts who cautioned against such a prospect, Powell echoed what Fauci has said this week.

“Fauci said … the virus is going to set the timetable and I think that’s right … the first order of business is to get the spread of the virus under control and then resume economic activity,” Powell said.

Stocks are continuing to climb in New York today, away from the three-year lows struck on Monday.

The Dow Jones industrial average has jumped by 4%, lifting it back over 22,100 points for the first time in almost two weeks.

Nearly every stock on the Dow is up, led by Boeing (+16%), and American Express (+9%).

Traders are welcoming the $2trn stimulus package hammered out on Capitol Hill this week, which will help firms such as Boeing. There’s also speculation that today’s grim jobless data will encourage US politicians to launch more stimulus measures to protect the economy.

But, a word of caution. It’s not unusual to see large rallies during a bear market. So if the Covid-19 crisis worsens sharply, stocks could come under pressure.

Newsflash: the leaders of the world’s largest economies, the G20 group, have just pledged to do “whatever it takes” to fight the Covid-19 pandemic.

In a new statement, they say ‘transparent, robust, large-scale and co-ordinated’ action is needed, and also promise to support health systems dealing with the crisis.

Reuters has the details:

• G20 STATEMENT SAYS G20 WILL DO WHATEVER IT TAKES TO OVERCOME CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC
• G2O SAYS WILL TAKE ALL NECESSARY HEALTH MEASURES AND SEEK ADEQUATE FINANCING TO CONTAIN PANDEMIC
• G20 LEADERS SAY RESPONSE REQUIRES TRANSPARENT, ROBUST, LARGE-SCALE AND COORDINATED RESPONSE

This is a reminder of Mario Draghi’s famous pledge to save the eurozone in 2012, during the debt crisis.

Economists are still digesting the biggest ever jump in US jobless claims.

Charles Hepworth, investment director at GAM Investments, says the sight of over three million people signing up for unemployment benefit sums up the US economy’s current woes,

Unemployment claims for the last week saw a “never seen before” record jump (to steal that often used trope from Trump, although I am sure he won’t be bragging about this one). The sharp recessionary economic effects that everyone feared are now starting to be confirmed by the numbers.

o put this into context, the highest ever weekly claim before now was just under 700k, way back during the 1982 recession, and even in the heights of the financial crisis over 10 years ago, we didn’t see a number much over 650k. That 3.283 million people sign up for unemployment claims last week is also probably under-reported as many states in the US experienced overwhelming demand for claim registrations. This points to continuing employment stress over the next few weekly releases. No wonder President Trump seems so keen to get America working again, seemingly at any cost.”

Economist Diane Lim shows just how historically bad this week’s figures are:

Just in: The BBC is dropping streaming TV shows in ‘ultra high-definition’, to free up some bandwidth on the UK’s broadband networks.

That should help networks handle the sudden jump in demand for internet access and web video conferencing services as millions more people try to work from home.

Ambrose Crofton, market analyst at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, agrees that America’s economy is now in recession.

Here his take on the surge in US unemployment last week:

“The US economy has entered a recession. Initial claims – a measure of the number of new filings to receive unemployment benefits– rose to 3.283 million for the week ending 21 March. The speed and magnitude of the move higher highlights how US businesses have had to let staff go in the face of the sudden coronavirus shutdown.

Policymakers have moved to try to limit the extent of this recession: the US Federal Reserve has cut its key interest rate to zero and restarted quantitative easing at an aggressive pace; and Congress agreed a $2.2 trillion bill to support businesses and consumers. Despite this support, a neutral allocation to risk may make sense, at least until jobless claims and the infection rate have peaked.”

Oxford Economics also fears the US jobless rate is heading to 10%, fast (from 3.5% in February)

The New York stock market has opened higher, despite today’s grim jobless data and recession warning from Fed chair Jay Powell.

The Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500 index both jumped by 2% at the open.

Back in the UK, defence and engineering firm Babcock has become the latest firm to unveil plans to help make thousands of ventilators to help the National Health Service treat Covid-19 patients.

It is joining Dyson, several small specialist firms and a consortium called Ventilator Challenge UK, led by Airbus.

It is working with a leading medical equipment manufacturer, which has asked not to be identified, but has experience making hospital ventilators.

Jon Hall, managing director of technology for Babcock, said:

“This is a critical time for the country as a whole and for the NHS in particular. When the opportunity arose for us to get involved in helping the NHS to save lives, we knew it was the right thing to do. I’m really proud of the commitment and innovation of everyone in the team, across Babcock and our medical and supply chain partners.

“Combining our engineering expertise with advances in medical technology has resulted in a solution that will help the NHS save lives. That capability, combined with a diverse supply chain will ensure that we can get this equipment manufactured, processed and delivered as a matter of urgency.”

John Westwood of Blacktower Financial Management says the surge in US jobless claims shows that fears of a US downturn are now being realised:

Investors’ nightmares have unfortunately become a reality in the US with the latest unemployment claims being revealed at 3.2 million in one week.

This has exceeded the record of 700,000 back in 1982 and is a direct sign of the shape of the current economy.

The challenge for the markets now is that there is still no end in sight, as the US is still new into its COVID-19 problem.

Trump had initially hinted at being open for business by Easter, but many analysts have dismissed this claim. The lack of trust in the president’s comments and the latest data means that the markets are now more uncertain than ever before.

Not-for-profit group Equitable Growth fears that the true picture of US unemployment is even worse than today’s diabolically bad jobless figures.

They point out that not every laid-off workers files for support, and unemployment offices have been overwhelmed by applications anyway - meaning some applications may not be dealt with yet.

The number of Americans filing ‘continuing’ claims for jobless support has also risen, from 1.702m to 1.803m.

That’s another bad sign - it means the people who were already out of work weren’t able to find employment last week (understandable, given the economic shutdown).

Usually, the initial jobless claims figure is much lower than the continuing claims total. It’s astounding to see them the other way round.

Here’s some instant reaction to the news that more than three million Americans filed initial jobless claims, having lost work last week:

Tensions are rising in the markets, as investors prepare to learn just how many people lost their jobs across America last week.....

Lloyd’s, the world’s oldest and biggest insurance market, has warned that the coronavirus pandemic is akin to a major natural disaster in terms of the claims it has sparked.

Insurers working in the market are facing a barrage of claims, ranging from cancelled events like the Olympic Games and Wimbledon to the cancellation of cruises and other trips.
Lloyd’s typically pays out £17bn to £18bn in claims to businesses and individuals every year, a tenth of which comes from natural catastrophes such as hurricanes or floods. The virus outbreak looks to be similar -- but the claims impact is estimated to be no larger than from a natural catastrophe, said John Neal, the Lloyd’s chief executive. He added that we should get a better idea within the next six weeks. But, he also warned that insurers will suffer an even bigger impact from losses in their investment portfolios because of the market turmoil in recent weeks. The Lloyd’s building is now closed -- the underwriting room shut down a week ago for the first time in Lloyd’s history and it enacted emergency trading protocols -- and the market’s 200 brokerages and 100 insurers are doing business remotely.

The counter-argument to BlackRock’s theory that equities now look attractive is that we simply don’t know how bad the Covid-19 downturn will be.

Politicians hope to get back to normal soon, but there’s no guarantee -- self-isolation, travel bans and supply chain disruption could be here for a while.

German conglomerate Bosch says its Healthcare Solutions subsidiary and Northern Ireland’s Randox Laboratories have developed a rapid test for Covid-19 which meets World Health Organisation requirements.

They say their molecular diagnostic test uses an existing Bosch Healthcare device. It provides a result in two-and-a-half hours, and can test for coronavirus and nine other respiratory diseases, including flu, from one sample, which doesn’t need to be transported to a laboratory.

Bosch’s shares are 5% higher this morning.

Britain’s share index of medium-sized and small firms, the FTSE 250, is outperforming the wider market today.

The FTSE 250 is flat, lifted by housebuilder McCarthy & Stone (+16%), transport National Express (+15%) and pub chain Mitchells & Butler (+9%).

They’ve all been badly hit by the Covid-19 crisis, and face months of disruption until self-isolating rules are relaxed.

But following steep share price falls [over 50% each this year], and the offer of help from the government and the Treasury, perhaps traders are looking to the long term....

Following the recent market slump, asset manager BlackRock has told clients it now favours “rebalancing into risk assets”.

BlackRock is encouraged by the new $2trn stimulus package going through Congress, calling it a “decisive” policy response. It now believes the market selloff had created “significant value” for long-term investors.

Some investors may feel the selloff has caused significant value destruction! But one person’s crash is another’s buying opportunity.....

Bought a new laptop to cope with the coronavirus lockdown? How about a fridge? Maybe even a PlayStation? (don’t worry, we won’t tell the boss).

If so, you’re not alone. Online sales at Dixons Carphone have surged by more than 70% as Britons rushed to buy home electronics kit and kitchen equipment, in preparation for weeks of confinement.

Aircraft manufacturer Airbus is sending some UK staff at its Broughton and Filton factories home early for an extended Easter break.

It says that production is being scaled back at the sites, which produce wings, as part of its ‘stringent health and safety measures’ regarding Covid-19.

Work has resumed in France and Spain after a four-day shutdown, but this now has a knock-on impact on wing production in the UK and Germany.

Some staff will keep working remotely -- but obviously you can’t take an A380’s fuselage home with you, so some Airbus staff will be taking a break.

It says:

The production and corresponding activities for support to production of the wing plants in Bremen, Filton and Broughton will be reduced, with an extended Easter holiday implemented at Broughton and Filton and a reduced working week at Bremen. The sites will remain open during this period and will continue to ensure wing deliveries to the final assembly lines, the receipt and control of materials and components from the supply chain, building and installation maintenance, critical administrative support and preparation for activity restart.

Employees will continue to perform activities remotely via home-working where their activities are not directly related to the production activity being adapted.

Bad news for Vodafone customers whose finances are suffering from Covid-19 - your bills are going up:

AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould is also bracing for a horrific jump in US unemployment today:

“There is mounting concern about just how ugly US jobless claims numbers might be when released at lunchtime UK time. A spike in claims across the border in Canada to nearly one million suggests they could be gargoylesque.

“The question is just what the markets are pricing in. Everybody is braced for economic data to be exceptionally awful for some time as we are living through a period which has no precedent since these records began.

“Even during the financial crisis people still bought clothes, frequented restaurants and cafes, and went out to work. Lockdown conditions are bound to lead to massive drops in output – the question is how long they might last?

After 90 minutes trading, the main European markets are down between 1% and 2%.

The optimism of Tuesday and Wednesday is fading, as traders return to fretting about the global downturn - and today’s US jobless claims figures (due in three hours).

Investors are nervous as the “reality of the economic hit starts to show through in the data”, says Fiona Cincotta of City Index.

Singapore has kicked off the rounds of shockingly poor data which is expected in the first half of this year. The GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 10.6% the fastest rate of contraction in over a decade. This is merely giving us a taste of what’s to come.

The job market across the globe is about to turn very ugly. Yesterday in Parliament the surge in unemployment which is expected in the UK was laid bare. Officials warned that over the past 9 days almost half a million people in the UK registered for the main benefit, universal credit.

The biggest concern for investors is the upcoming US initial jobless claims. Investors are bracing themselves for the highest number of claims in the series history, with estimates ranging from 1 million to 4 million, up from 281,000 last week. The magnitude of claims today will be an indication of how extensive the damage to the US economy is amid business closures for coronavirus. Make no mistake, this could hit risk sentiment across the globe.

Shopping centre Intu is also suffering from the coronavirus.

The outbreak came at a dreadful time for Intu, undermining its efforts to agree emergency funding. So with landlords now unable to meet their rent payments, it risks breaching the terms of its borrowing.

My colleague Julie Kollewe explains:

Intu Properties, one of Britain’s biggest shopping centre owners, has warned it will breach the terms on its debt commitments following a collapse in the rents received from its retail tenants, unless it can secure debt waivers from its lenders.

The owner of the Trafford Centre in Manchester and Lakeside in Essex said it had received just 29% of rents due this month from its tenants, compared with 77% a year ago.

UK property giant British Land has suspended its dividend payments, having been hit by the Covid-19 crisis.

British Land says it is cancelling some of its tenants’ rent payments, and allowing others to defer them.

It told shareholders:

Our immediate priority is to support those customers who are being hardest hit. At sites we control, we are therefore releasing our smaller retail, food & beverage and leisure customers from their rental obligations for three months (April to June). The financial impact in terms of lost rent and service charge is c.£3m.

For other retail, food & beverage and leisure customers experiencing financial challenges because of COVID-19, we are prepared to defer the March quarter day rents and spread repayment over the six quarters from September 2020.

The company runs the Broadgate, Paddington Central and Regent’s Place sites in London, plus Surrey Quays Shopping Centre, Sheffield’s Meadowhall shopping centre, and Drake Circus in Plymouth.

British Land adds that it suspended work at two major construction sites - 100 Liverpool Street and 1 Triton Square - yesterday after the UK government ordered non-essential workers to stay at home.

Back in the UK, the Daily Mail’s owner has warned shareholders it will miss its revenue targets this year, due to the Covid-19 crisis.

DMGT says that its events and exhibitions arm, and consumer media businesses, are now suffering from the coronavirus outbreak and the efforts to control it.

Singapore has warned that its economy is contracting sharply -- a bad sign for the global economy.

Preliminary GDP data show that Singapore’s economic output shrank at an annualised rate of 10.6% this quarter, leaving the economy 2.2% smaller than a year ago.

This has forced Singapore’s ministry of trade and industry to slash its forecasts for 2020, to a contraction of between 1% and 4% (down from -0.5% to +1.5% previously).

All sectors of the economy shrank, with services taking a bigger hit than manufacturing.

Singapore is one of the first countries to report GDP data (Q1 hasn’t actually finished, of course!), so this is an early warning of what we can expect to hear in the coming weeks.

The slump has prompted Singapore’s government to boost its covid-19 stimulus package to over $48.4bn today, on top of$6.4bn already committed.

Paul Donovan of UBS Wealth Management says that today’s US jobless claims reading is very important, but may not be terribly accurate:

US initial jobless claims numbers are expected to be very, very large.

If lots of Americans lose their jobs, the start of phase two (economic bounce-back) will be delayed. More unemployed means less consumption. Today’s data may have accuracy issues, if there were not enough people to process and count the number of claims.

Economists surveyed by Reuters predict that around a million US citizens filed jobless claims last week (including Citi’s forecast of 4 million).

As their chart shows, that would smash the previous record from the 1980s (when the US has hiked interest rates to squish inflation, at the cost of many jobs).

One complication is that authorities may have been overwhelmed by the surge of people seeking benefits.

Stephen Gallagher, U.S. chief economist at Societe Generale in New York, told them:

“Containment efforts in response to the coronavirus resulted in a very sudden and very dramatic change over just a few days,”

“Layoffs were part of that change and applicants appear to have flooded state unemployment insurance offices within a very short time-span.

European stock markets have all opened in the red, as investors brace for today’s grim US jobless figures.

In London, the FTSE 100 has dropped by 166 points, or 2.9%, handing back some of Wednesday’s 242-point gains.

Anxiety over the global downturn may be trumping relief that governments and central bankers are doing their best to fight it.
Fawad Razaqzada, markets analyst at TradingCandles.com, explains:

After a nice recovery over the last few days, investors will be wondering whether the selling is about to resume again in this near market.

With a growing number of countries in lockdown and the virus still spreading rapidly in Europe and the US, it is very difficult to be optimistic about the global economic outlook despite all the large monetary and fiscal stimulus measures announced by various governments and central banks over the past couple of weeks.