Graeme Wearden 

US stock market hits record high as Donald Trump gives trade deal hint – as it happened

S&P 100 climbs to new highs as US president suggests that ‘Phase One’ deal with China could be signed next month
  
  

U.S. President Donald Trump, who met China’s Vice Premier Liu He in the Oval Office earlier this month
U.S. President Donald Trump, who met China’s Vice Premier Liu He in the Oval Office earlier this month Photograph: Yuri Gripas/Reuters

S&P finishes at new closing high

And finally.... America’s S&P 500 index has closed at a new all-time high.

The S&P 500 finished the day 16.7 points higher at 3,039, up 0.55% today, at its highest ever close.

Telecoms and tech stocks drove the rally, with healthcare and consumer-focused firms close behind.

The Dow gained 129 points, or 0.5%, to 27,087, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 1% to 8,326.

Traders ended the day cheered by Donald Trump’s hint of a Phase One trade deal with China next month.

Encouraging comments from Beijing overnight that the technical work for a preliminary deal was mostly done also cheered Wall Street.

That’s all for today. Thanks for reading and commenting. GW

With roughly 30 minutes until the closing bell, the S&P 500 is still striding to a record closing high.

The index is 0.6% higher today, up 18.35 points at 3,040.

Republican congressman Paul Mitchell of Michigan reckons Donald Trump’s tax cuts programme deserves some credit:

Stephen Massocca, senior vice president at Wedbush Securities in San Francisco, also believes investors are feeling less anxious:

“It just seems like the things that would disrupt the rally– tightening monetary policy - off the table. Some kind of big battle with the Chinese seems to be off the table, some kind of political upheaval seems be off the table.

“All of that means the line of least resistance is higher.”

(via Reuters, thanks!)

Big Tech is playing a key role in the stock market rally, points out Caroline Hyde of Bloomberg:

Wall Street seems to have learned to stop worrying about recessions, trade wars and Brexit - at least for the moment.

Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives for Charles Schwab in Austin explains (via Reuters).

“Most of the things that have been worrying markets haven’t necessarily been resolved but the concern about them has waned a little bit.

“In general, it is more of a lack of bad news than it is an abundance of good news.”

Here’s our news story on the big stock market float of the day:

Over in Frankfurt, Mario Draghi has signed off from the European Central Bank with a call for close fiscal union.

Draghi, whose term ends on Thursday, told his leaving party that monetary union needs to be strengthened (to avoid a repeat of the crises that erupted during his tenure).

The road towards a fiscal capacity will most likely be a long one. History shows that budgets have rarely been created for the general purpose of stabilisation, but rather to deliver specific goals in the public interest. In the US, it was the need to overcome the Great Depression that led to the expansion of the federal budget in the 1930s. Perhaps, for Europe, it will require an urgent cause such as mitigating climate change to bring about such collective focus.

Whichever path is taken, it is plain to see that now is the time for more Europe, not less. I mean this not in an axiomatic way, but in the truest traditions of federalism. Where results can best be delivered by national policies, let it stay that way. But where we can only deliver on the legitimate concerns of the public by working together, we need Europe to be stronger.

The US Dow Jones industrial average is moving towards its own record high today.

The benchmark index is up 87 points or 0.3% at 27,045, on hopes of a US-China trade deal (phase one) being inked next month.

Microsoft leads the rally, up 2.2%, following by Goldman Sachs (+1.6%), tech firm 3M (+1.5%), and pharmaceuticals firm Pfizer (+1.5%).

After a busy morning on Wall Street, the S&P 500 is firmly on track for a record closing high.

The index has held onto its early gains, and is still up 16 points of 0.5% at 3,038 points, as traders grab some lunch.

304 members of the index are up, with 199 down and two unchanged.

Takeover target Tiffany is still the top riser, up 31%. Telecoms firm AT&T is up 4% after announcing a three-year strategic plan including $10bn of asset sales.

Chipmaker AMD are up 3.2%, as tech stocks are lifted by trade deal hopes.

European stock markets have closed higher, taking a lift from the rally in New York.

Stocks vulnerable to the trade war, such as industrial firms (including car makers) and tech companies led the rally.

Here’s the closing prices:

  • German DAX: up 62 points at 12,957, + 0.6%
  • French CAC: up 16 points at 5,738, +0.3%
  • Italian FTSE MIB: up 86 points at 22,695, +0.4%
  • Spanish IBEX: up 6 points at 9,437, +0.1%
  • FTSE 100: up 6 points at 7,331, up 0.1%

In London, the FTSE 100 was held back by the pound, which strengthened after the Brexit extension was agreed, and by HSBC’s losses (-4%) after its weak results today.

Pharmaceutical firm AstraZeneca gained 4%, though, after reporting that a cancer drug had passed a key trial.

Brexit relief is also pushing stock markets higher.

David Madden of CMC Markets in London says the EU’s decision to offer a flextension up to 31 January 2020 has cheered the City:

Stocks are higher today on the back of the news that Brexit has been delayed until potentially the end of January 2020. The extension was granted this morning, and even though it wasn’t a surprise that Brussels agreed to the three month delay, the confirmation encouraged some buying.

The focus will now be on UK politics. Prime Minister Johnson is hoping for a general election in mid-December. Mr Johnson will need the support of two thirds of MPs in order to press ahead with the pre-Christmas election. The Conservatives are doing well in the opinion polls which is why Boris is keen for an election. Jeremy Corbyn claims he will won’t support an election until the no-deal option is removed, but the Labour Party are performing poorly in the polls, and that’s the real reason why they don’t want an election in December

Updated

Shares in Fitbit, the exercise-tracking tech firm, have surged 27%, following reports that Alphabet, Google’s parent company, is in takeover talks.

Expectations of a cut to US interest rates on Wednesday are also lifting shares today.

Marie Owens Thomsen of Indosuez explains that a cut - the third this year - is heavily priced in:

The markets are pricing a 91% probability (Bloomberg) of a rate cut.

The Fed under Jerome Powell appears to be more reluctant to risk surprising the markets than past Feds, and therefore the chance for a move this week is significant. Data of course cuts both ways in a slowing economy. A 3.5% unemployment rate clearly does not warrant a rate cut, although high policy uncertainty (323.2 in September, down from 350.8 in August), and slipping inflation expectations arguably do.

A couple of photos from the floor of the New York stock exchange today:

Here’s a neat summary of the markets today, from Bloomberg:

U.S. stocks reclaimed an all-time high after three months, with the final leg coming on rising optimism for a trade deal with China. Treasuries slumped at the start of a a week packed with earnings and the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.

The S&P 500 took out its July record after President Donald Trump said the U.S. is ahead of schedule to sign part of the trade deal. Microsoft jumped after winning a Pentagon contract, while AT&T climbed following a board shuffle. Tiffany surged after LVMH said it held discussions with the jeweler. PG&E plunged on liability risk from California wildfires.

The Stoxx Europe 600 rose even as banks slipped after HSBC’s disappointing earnings. The 10-year Treasury yield hit a six-week high.

Bulls drive Wall Street higher

Neil Wilson of Markets.com says investors are feeling more upbeat and piling into riskier assets such as equities.

He says stock market ‘bulls’ pushed the S&P 500 to a record high an hour ago:

It’s a remarkable achievement against faltering corporate earnings, a festering (if not quite total) trade war, and softer macro data everywhere you look. Bulls had tried their hardest Friday but some really positive noises on trade nudged us over the line today.

President Trump said the US and China are looking to be ahead of schedule on sign the ‘phase one’ trade deal at the APEC meeting in Chile in mid-Nov. The bar on a US-China trade deal had been set so low that the market seems content with this pretty puny agreement. At least the direction is positive.

Why the S&P 500 hit a record high

If you’re just tuning in...

Today’s rally on Wall Street was sparked by optimistic comments on the US-China trade war from both sides.

Overnight, China’s commerce ministry says that technical talks about the phase 1 trade deal text with the US was “basically completed”.

Earlier, the US Trade Representative’s Office said negotiators had ‘made headway’ on some key issues. Full details here.

President Trump then backed this optimism up, by saying negotiations were ahead of schedule.

BUT.... this is only for a Phase One trade deal, which might reset relations between the two sides and could lift some tariffs. A full-blown agreement, tackling stickier issues such as forced technology transfers and China’s subsidies, is some distance off.

Updated

The S&P 500 is scrambling boldly into new heights, now up 19 points at 3,041 for the first time ever.

Virtually every sector is up, led by telecoms (+2.6%), technology (+0.9%), healthcare (+0.8%) and basic materials (+0.8%).

Tiffany is the top riser, surging 28% following LVMH’s takeover approach.

Mihir Kapadia, the CEO of Sun Global Investments, says talk of a Phase One trade deal between the US and China has pushed shares to record levels.

Positive sentiment was boosted by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representatives stating that the administration is close to finalizing some sections of the “phase one” agreement with China.

Encouraging companies results have also helped, he adds:

3Q earnings have also boosted the market, driving the Tech sector to outperform the rest of the SPX on strength in the semis group. Tech shares were up (+ 1.2% on Friday), followed by Materials (+1.04%) and Energy, as trade optimism and constructive fundamentals propped up oil and base metals prices.

Sir Richard Branson had a great view of today’s record high.

He’s is on the floor of the New York stock exchange for the flotation of Virgin Galactic.

The S&P 500 has now risen by 21% this year.

That may be surprising, given trade war jitters and signs that America’s economy is slowing. But the rally has been helped by recent cuts to US interest rates, as the Federal Reserve has bowed to pressure from Trump.

Technology stock have played a major role in the rally:

  • Apple: up 56%
  • Microsoft: up 43%
  • Facebook: up 41%
  • Amazon: up 16%

The Nasdaq 100 index of large technology companies has also hit a record high.

US stock market hits record high

BOOM! The S&P 500 index of US companies listed in New York has opened at a new all-time high.

The S&P 500 gained 15 points or 0.4% to hit 3,038 points, a new record level.

The Dow Jones industrial average also opened higher, up 112 points or 0.4%. The tech-focused Nasdaq index has gained 0.5%.

Traders are taking heart from Donald Trump’s hint that he’ll sign a trade war deal with China’s Xi Jinping next month.

Microsoft is helping to drive the rally, up 2.8%, having won the Pentagon’s $10bn cloud computing contract on Friday night.

Music streaming service Spotify have jumped by 8.4%, after releasing strong results today.

Updated

Donald Trump also told reporters that he hopes to sign the deal with China’s President Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Chile next month.

The U.S. president said the phase one portion would “take
care of the farmers” and “also take care of a lot of the banking
needs,” adding:

“So we’re about I would say a little bit ahead of schedule maybe a lot ahead of schedule”.

Trump hints that Phase One trade deal is close

Boom! Donald Trump has just predicted that he will sign a preliminary trade deal with China soon.

That’s a loud hint that the deal could be signed off at next month’s meeting of Asia-Pacific world leaders. It makes sense, given the reports of progress from Beijing and Washington in recent days.

It may drive shares higher on Wall Street today - perhaps to new alltime highs in just 30 minutes time.

Reuters has the details:

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday he expected to sign a significant part of the trade deal with China ahead of schedule but did not elaborate on the timing.

“We are looking probably to be ahead of schedule to sign a very big portion of the China deal, we’ll call it Phase One but it’s a very big portion,” he told reporters at Joint Base Andrews before leaving on a visit to Chicago

Women paid £260,000 less than men

We all know there’s a gender pay gap problem, but the full scale of the financial hit suffered by women over their careers is pretty shocking.

New official data show that women are paid just £380,000 on average over their lifetimes. Men? They receive £643,000 over the same period, on average.

My colleague Patrick Collinson reports:

The Office for National Statistics figures revealed huge inequality between men and women even at the highest levels of educational attainment. It said women with a master’s or PhD degree still made one-third less over their lifetimes than men with the same qualifications.

“Women aged 26 to 35 years with higher degrees have average lifetime earnings of £803,000, whereas men of the same age with undergraduate level qualifications have average lifetime earnings of around £1,160,000,” said the ONS.

Apparently there’s been a small improvement in the last 15 years -- women are now earning 59% of men’s average lifetime earnings; up from 56% in 2004. Not much done, lots more to do....

Here’s our updated story on the Tiffany takeover tussle:

Jewellery chain Tiffany has confirmed that rival luxury chain LVMH has tabled a takeover bid.

Tiffany & Co says its board of directors were “carefully reviewing the proposal” and advised shareholders not to take action at this point in time.

Shares in Tiffany have spiked by 32% in pre-market trading.

Over in New York, traders are speculating that the S&P 500 index could hit a new record high today.

Stocks are up in the futures market, following encouraging noises on a trade deal from China and the US over the weekend (see earlier post).

British entrepreneur Sir Richard Branson is floating his Virgin Galactic spaceflight company on Wall Street too....

UK firms suffer 'extension exhaustion' as Brexit drags on

The prospect of another Brexit extension will irk some UK companies, as they stare at massive stockpiles of raw materials, parts and finished goods.

Bosses now have to decide whether to whittle these supplies down, or maintain them in case Britain crashes out of the EU on 31 January (the new deadline agreed by EU leaders today).

Amanda Tickel, global Brexit lead at Deloitte, says businesses will have “mixed feelings” about Donald Tusk’s announcement today.

While there is relief that the disruption of a no-deal exit on 31 October is off the table, further delay prolongs uncertainty. Businesses will be wondering what to do with partially implemented restructuring, stockpiles and logistics plans. With the added stepping stone of a possible election in the coming weeks, planning for the future could be even harder.

Tickel adds that businesses will be ‘exhausted’ by the prospect of another crunch deadline in three months time:

“While preparedness levels vary, business has generally listened to the clear government messaging to get ready for Brexit on 31 October. With the prospect of preparing for a fourth deadline, there’s a feeling of extension exhaustion.

The CBI’s retail sales survey shows that UK consumers are notably cautious, says Howard Archer of the EY Item Club

Her’s his take:

  • A notable feature of the survey was that retailers’ stock levels relative to expected sales reached a record high in October. This was a consequence of a double driving force of uncertainty ahead of the 31 October scheduled date for the UK to leave the EU and the proximity to Christmas

  • Retailers will be particularly worried that consumers appear to be cautious over spending as the vital Christmas shopping period looms; they will be hoping that some of the recent lacklustre sales performance is due to consumers taking a breather before splashing out over the festive season. The survey indicates that retailers are far from confident about the near-term outlook for sales with a marginal positive balance of +1% expecting them up year-on-year in November.

Retail sales and orders down, says CBI

Here’s are the key findings from the CBI’s monthly healthcheck

  • Retail sales volumes in the year to October fell for the sixth consecutive month (-10%) but at the slowest pace over this period so far. Retailers expect sales volumes to be broadly flat next month (+1%).

  • Orders placed on suppliers also fell in the year to October (-4%) at a slightly slower pace than September (-9%). Expectations are for a deterioration in orders next month (-22%).

  • Sales for the time of year were poor (-12%), to a similar degree to last month (-11%). Sales are expected to remain poor next month (-10%).

  • Year-on-year internet sales growth improved in October (+49%, from +33% in September). Similar growth is expected pace in November (+51%).

These tweets from the CBI show how stockpiling has spiked, even as sales have weakened.

UK retail stockpiling hits record levels

Breaking: Stockpiling by UK retailers has hit a record level.

The latest survey of Britain’s retail industry, conducted by the CBI, shows that shops brace for Brexit disruption and the peak Christmas shopping season.

The CBI found that “stock levels in relation to expected sales” has hit its highest level since the survey began in 1983.

Worryingly, shops also reported that retail sales volumes and orders both fell in the year to October for the sixth month in a row.

But despite this weakening demand, shops have been cramming their shelves, warehouses and offices to the rafters, in case of Brexit-related disruption.

Rain Newton-Smith, CBI Chief Economist, says retailers are facing tough times:

“Retailers have now endured six months of falling sales, the longest period of decline since the financial crisis. The sector is struggling with ongoing digital disruption, layered on top of cost pressures from a weak pound and the cumulative burden of an outdated business rates regime.

“Retailers have also had to contend with the looming Brexit deadline, which has partly driven a record spike in stocks. The timing could not be worse: the run-up to Christmas is a crucial time of year for the retail sector, and not knowing where we will be on November 1st is adding more strain to an already beleaguered sector.”

More to follow....

Asia-Pacific stock markets have all closed higher, with Japan touching a one-year peak, amid the trade war optimism.

As Stephen Innes of AxiTrader puts it:

With indications that the U.S. and China are making more progress in tariff discussions, sentiment continues to turn more favourable.

In New York, shares in Microsoft are rallying in pre-market trading after it won a $10bn contract to provide cloud computing services for the Pentagon late last week.

But Amazon, who were favourite to claim the contract, are down in pre-market trading -- having already said it was “surprised about this conclusion”.

The whole process became mired in allegations of conflict of interests, and also overshadowed by president Trump’s enmity towards Amazon founder Jeff Bezos.

Eurozone hit by money supply and bank lending woes

The European Central Bank are throwing a farewell party for Mario Draghi this afternoon, before he steps down as president on 31 October.

But the latest money supply figures, released this morning, have put a dampener on celebrations.

Growth in bank lending across the eurozone slowed to 3.7% in September, down from 4.3% in August. This suggests banks are taking credit out of the economy, just as the ECB tries to encourage them to lend more!

Growth in money supply - a gauge of future spending and activity - also slowed down last month.

Eric Moore, fund manager of FP Miton Income Fund, agrees that the US-China trade war has hurt HSBC, helping to push profits down.

He writes:

“There is not much to like in HSBC’s Q3 numbers today.

Reported revenues are down 3%, whilst operating expenses are up 2%. The knock-on impact on profits has been severe with reported pre-tax profit down 18%. This runs counter to HSBC’s recent mantra of having “positive jaws”, that is to say their intention to have revenues growing faster than costs. This is plainly easier when the top line is growing, as there is a certain level of inflation embedded in their cost base. But with interest rates very low everywhere and yield curves very flat it is hard for all banks to deliver revenue growth.

Add in the continuing US-China trade dispute and a generalised slowdown in economic growth expectations and HSBC says the “outlook for revenue growth is softer than we anticipated at the half year.

Why the pound isn’t higher ->

Updated

'Flextension' decision gives sterling a tiny nudge

Breaking: European Union leaders have granted the UK a Brexit ‘flextension’.

This gives parliament until 31 January to agree a deal to leave the EU.

EC president Donald Tusk has tweeted the decision:

The pound has risen very slightly, up to $1.284 against the US dollar (up 0.1% today).

European markets subdued

HSBC’s travails has dragged the London stock exchange into the red in early trading.

The FTSE 100 inex has lost 16 points, or 0.2%, to 7,307. Last week it gained 2.5% in a rally partly driven by the softening pound.

Germany’s DAX is up 0.13%, lifted by carmakers (thanks to the trade deal hopes). Volkswagen and BMW have both gained around 1%.

France’s CAC has dipped by 0.1%, although LMVH has gained 0.4% as traders welcome its takeover approach to Tiffany.

HSBC shares slide as outlook darkens

Shares in HSBC have slumped by 4% this morning, after the banking giant issued disappointing financial results.

Europe’s biggest bank reported an 18% drop in pretax profits for the last quarter, sending its shares to the bottom of the FTSE 100 leaderboard.

Its Return on Tangible Equity figure - a broad measure of profitability - slumped to 6.4% from 10%, forcing HSBC to drop its target of lifting it to 11% next year.

HSBC admitted that its performance in parts of continental Europe, the UK and the US were unacceptable; fixing those problems will push up restructuring charges.

Interim CEO Noel Quinn didn’t sugar-coat the numbers either, telling shareholders:

“Parts of our business, especially Asia, held up well in a challenging environment in the third quarter. However, in some parts, performance was not acceptable, principally business activities within continental Europe, the non-ring-fenced bank in the UK, and the US.

Our previous plans are no longer sufficient to improve performance for these businesses, given the softer outlook for revenue growth. We are therefore accelerating plans to remodel them, and move capital into higher growth and return opportunities.”

All at a time when geopolitical crises are making trading tough.

Richard Hunter of Interactive Investors explains:

Restructuring charges in the final part of the year are likely to hurt and will be in addition to the current fears of a global economic slowdown following on from the US/China trade spat, political turmoil in Hong Kong and general European economic malaise.

There’s not much optimism in Hong Kong this morning.

After months of pro-democracy protests, the City state is expected to plunge into recession when the latest GDP figures are released on Thursday.

Yesterday, Hong Kong’s financial secretary also warned that the region is unlikely to achieve annual economic growth this year.

Paul Chan warned:

“The blow to our economy is comprehensive.”

“It seems it will be extremely difficult for us to reach full-year economic growth of 0 to 1%. I would not rule out the possibility that the full-year economic growth will be negative.”

LVMH in takeover approach for Tiffany

Takeover news: French luxury group LVMH has confirmed it held talks with US rival Tiffany.

The company behind the Louis Vuitton fashion house, Moet and Chandon champagne and Hennessy cognac hopes to snaffle Tiffany & Co, for a reported $14.5bn.

My colleague Julia Kollewe has more details:

LVMH said it had held preliminary discussions with Tiffany, known for its diamond engagement rings, after reports said it had made a $14.5bn bid.

It stressed that there was no certainty that a deal would be agreed.

LVMH is the world’s largest luxury goods group, with brands including Louis Vuitton, Bulgari, Christian Dior and Hublot watches. It is owned by Europe’s richest man, Bernard Arnault.

Shares in European car companies have hit their highest levels since May, supported by trade deal optimism.

China to boost its blockchain industry

Shares in Chinese tech companies are rocketing this morning, after president Xi Jinping said China intends to invest in blockchain technologies.

Xi told a meeting of top Communist party officials that blockchain (the technology underpinning bitcoin) would play “an important role in the next round of technological innovation and industrial transformation”.

Xi also chaired a study session last week on developing China’s crypo industry.

Shares in Chinese companies with a focus on blockchain, such as DHC Software, have surged by 10% - the maximum one-day move allowed.

Trade war optimism has pushed Japan’s Nikkei index to a one-year high today.

Investors piled into globally-focused companies, on hopes that a US-China trade deal would spur growth.

Reuters has more details:

Lifting the mood were comments from U.S. and Chinese officials that they are “close to finalizing” some parts of a trade agreement after high-level telephone discussions on Friday.

Traders reacted quickly by buying shares perceived to be sensitive to global economic cycles, including semi-conductor chip-related shares and shipping firms.

Introduction: Trade deal breakthough soon?

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Global stock markets are starting the week in good heart, as Washington and Beijing inch towards a ‘phase one’ trade deal.

U.S. and Chinese officials have both said they are “close to finalizing” some parts of a preliminary trade agreement, following a high-level phone call on Friday.

China’s commerce ministry says that technical talks about the phase 1 trade deal text with the US is “basically completed”.

Both sides have agreed to properly address core issues, it says.

And there’s also a mini-breakthough: The US has agreed to import cooked poultry from China, while Beijing will lift a ban on U.S. poultry.

This has driven Asia-Pacific stocks to a three-month high this morning, with gains in China (+0.7%), Japan (+0.3%) and South Korea (+0.2%).

The US trade representative has also said that the two sides are “close to finalising some sections” of an interim agreement to ease trade tensions between the two countries, following that call between Robert Lighthizer, Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin, and China’s vice-president Liu He.

Lighthizer’s office added that the negotiators “made headway on specific issues”.

But investors shouldn’t, ahem, count their chickens yet.

A ‘Phase One’ trade deal could mean that planned US tariffs on Chinese goods aren’t imposed in December, which could boost trade and economic growth.

Donald Trump is very keen to sign such a deal when he meets China’s Xi Jinping next month, at the Apec meeting in Chile in November.

However, this would only be a stepping stone towards a comprehensive deal, which could take much longer....

Also coming up today

The pound is hovering around $1.282 this morning, as EU leaders prepare to agree to a Brexit extension -- probably to 31 January.

In Westminster, prime minister Boris Johnson will make another push for a general election in December, but Labour are expected to block him again.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya of London Capital Group says the pound would weaken if EU leaders only granted a short delay.

As it stands today, the probability of a no-deal Brexit is very slim. From the market perspective, a no-deal scenario is almost fully reflected in sterling prices near the 1.30 mark against the US dollar.

Pound traders have further trimmed their net short positions during the week that ended on October 22nd and have already moved on to pricing Britain’s next political challenges.

The agenda

  • 11am GMT: CBI survey of UK retail sales in September
  • 12.30pm GMT: US trade date for September
  • 3pm GMT: ECB president Mario Draghi speaks at a ‘farewell event’ before his term ends this week

Updated

 

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