With the weaker pound lifting multinationals’ shares, the FTSE 100 had closed 48 points higher at 7,260.
Brexit fatigue, and the prospect of another extension, kept traders subdued, says David Madden of CMC:
UK politics remains in limbo as there is speculation the UK’s exit from the EU will be pushed back to early 2020, and there is also chatter of a general election.
The possibility of a no-deal Brexit seems to have been greatly reduced, which is music to dealers’ ears. While there remains a lack of clarity in relation to Brexit, stock markets are likely to meander. Things haven’t gone exactly according to plan for Prime Minister Johnson, but the fact that he managed to strike a deal with the EU, and get support for it, suggests that things are heading in the right direct.
Over in Congress, Mark Zuckerberg is facing questions over Facebook’s Libra digital currency plan.
Follow it here:
At the risk of turning into Auditing Today, we’re happy to report that Sports Direct has appointed an auditor -- RSM UK Group.
This ends a long search for a firm willing to audit Mike Ashley’s retail chain. None of the Big Four could be tempted, after Grant Thornton declined to be reappointed this year.
Grant Thornton handed in its notice in August, shortly after Sports Direct shocked the City by revealing it faced a €674m (£624m) tax claim from Belgian tax authorities.
There had been speculation that the government might need to take control and appoint auditors itself.
Despite posting a sharp fall in profits, Boeing’s shares have jumped by 3% in early New York trading.
This takes them to the top of the Dow leaderboard.
Traders are relieved that Boeing still expects to get permission for 737 MAX planes to fly again by the end of the year.
Boeing suffers from 737 crisis
Another US company has reported weak results too.
Net earnings at aerospace manufacturer Boeing more than halved in the last quarter, from $2.36bn to $1.17bn. Revenues also fall by a fifth, following the grounding of the 737 MAX plane following two fatal crashes.
Boeing told investors that it still expects to be given permission to return the 737 MAX to service in the final quarter of this year.
Boeing President and Chief Executive Officer Dennis Muilenburg.
“Our top priority remains the safe return to service of the 737 MAX, and we’re making steady progress.
“We’ve also taken action to further sharpen our company’s focus on product and services safety, and we continue to deliver on customer commitments and capture new opportunities with our values of safety, quality and integrity always at the forefront.”
Shipments of new aircraft were sharply lower, to just 62 in the third quarter from 190 a year ago.
That’s because airlines aren’t accepting 737 Max jets until regulators have confirmed they are safe to fly, following the Lion Air Flight 610 crash in October 29, 2018 and Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 in March this year.
Caterpillar scares markets
Over in the US, mining and construction equipment firm Caterpillar has given investors a nasty fright.
Caterpillar reported that its revenue fell by 5.6% in the last quarter to $12.76 billion, well shy of $13.4 billion expected by analysts.
Profits took a dive too, to $2.66 per share, from $2.88 a year ago, and below the $2.90 expected.
It also lowered its earnings guidance for the rest of the year, to $10.90-$11.40 per share from a previous range of $12.06-$13.06.
*CATERPILLAR LOWERS 2019 EPS GUIDANCE; SHARES DROP
— Teddy Vallee (@TeddyVallee) October 23, 2019
Caterpillar’s diggers, trucks and generators are used around the world, so it’s a good barometer of economic demand. This is not a good sign, less than a day after chipmaker Texas Instruments also posted disappointing numbers.
It suggests the global slowdown, partly triggered by the US-China trade war, is causing more economic damage than thought....
The slowdown in manufacturing is no blip, and Caterpillar just confirmed it (via @bopinion) https://t.co/zyeinYPIGh
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) July 24, 2019
Full story: Ex-Thomas Cook boss denies responsibility
Here’s my colleague Rob Davies on this morning’s hearing into Thomas Cook’s collapse:
A former chief executive of Thomas Cook has insisted his successors were wrong to blame him for racking up the debts that capsized the company, as MPs continued their inquiry into the tour operator’s collapse.
Speaking before the business select committee, Manny Fontenla-Novoa, who presided over the much-criticised 2007 merger with MyTravel and a series of debt-fuelled acquisitions, said: “I just believe on the major decisions I got them right and I’m sorry the way it turned out.”....
More here:
Rachel Reeves MP just told Sky News that it’s very disappointing that none of Thomas Cook’s former managers have taken responsibility for its collapse.
She points to Manny Fontenla-Novoa’s failure to accept blame today, even though his successors said that the debt run up under his leadership “hamstrung the company” and drove up debt servicing costs.
The BEIS committee chair adds:
What struck the committee most of all is the lack of humility, and the lack of taking responsibility
With huge rewards should come huge humility, and that was lacking today.
Q: So should the law be changed to make bosses liable when businesses fail?
Reeves has three suggestions:
- Make it easier to claw back bonuses in the case of catastrophic company failure
- Look at the fit and proper test around company directors. She’s not convinced that the people who brought down a 178-year old business should now be on the board of other companies
- Reform audit profession, and the regulating of auditing, and stop firms doing audit and non-audit work for the same company
She’s also concerned that the special managers winding up Thomas Cook have earned £11m in fees, while suppliers are waiting for debts to be paid, and staff are waiting for back pay.
Reeves: Thomas Cook ex-bosses need to stop the excuses
Here’s a video clip of Rachel Reeves, chair of the Business committee, laying into Thomas Cook’s former management for not taking responsibility for its collapse:
As Reeves says:
Everyone we’ve seen from Thomas Cook have blamed everyone apart from themselves. They never look at themselves, the decisions they’ve made, and reflected on those.
It’s the volcanic ash, the hot weather in the UK, the depreciation of sterling, the debt acquired by someone else....
Thomas Cook’s former bosses keep blaming everything and everyone except themselves for its collapse. It’s just excuse after excuse.
— Rachel Reeves (@RachelReevesMP) October 23, 2019
With huge reward should come responsibility and perhaps even some humility. pic.twitter.com/O7bprUVvQe
Thomas Cook hearing: snap summary
Success may have many parents, but the failure of the world’s oldest holiday firm is certainly an orphan, if you believe Thomas Cook’s former bosses.
Manny Fontenla-Novoa, who ran the company from 2003-2011, was categorical that he’s not to blame, telling MPs that his merger with rival operator MyTravel made sense.
There’s one problem with this theory: Thomas Cook collapsed because its debts were too high, and because it hadn’t adjusted to the modern, digital, holiday market.
Harriet Green, his successor, put her finger on the problems - explaining that by 2012 Thomas Cook was reeling from a series of profit warnings and lacking a strategy to target millennials.
She changed that, before falling out with the board and leaving after under three years. According to Green, Thomas Cook would have been better served sticking with her approach.
Instead, Green was left “incredibly sad” when the chairman basically gave her the push in late 2014. That, she believes, was a mistake as it undermined the transformation plan.
But she did concede that she could have pushed the that plan even faster (though more board support would have helped!), and put more resources behind augmented reality tech to get people into stores.
Former CFO Bill Scott faced some rigorous questioning, around Thomas Cook’s controversial habit of recording large amounts of goodwill on its books (much dated back to the MyTravel deal).
Scott conceded that, with hindsight, some of it should have been written off earlier than May 2019, after a deterioration in trading. MPs, though, pointed out that a summer heatwave can have such impact, the goodwill wasn’t really there in the first place. So were the accounts actually accurate?
Luke Hildyard, director of the High Pay Centre, isn’t impressed by the excuses reeled out today:
Thomas Cook execs at the Select Committee (paid £20m+ between them) have thus far blamed their predecessors, their successors, the global financial crisis, the Icelandic ash cloud and the 2018 heatwave for the company's failure. Impressively thorough!https://t.co/Jv83anD3f0
— Luke Hildyard (@lukehildyard) October 23, 2019
Significantly, the auditing regulators also voiced concerns about this issue -- too late for Thomas Cook’s staff and customers, alas.
We also got more insight into the liquidation of Thomas Cook. So far it has cost £11m in fees paid to special managers, who only manage to raise £6m for the company’s network of high street stores.
Here’s some reaction to Harriet Green’s comments about her exit from Thomas Cook, from Joanna Partridge of ITV News (but joining us soon :) )
Former Thomas Cook CEO Harriet Green finally set the record straight to MPs about her departure from the travel firm in 2014. Says she was summoned very early by the firm’s Chairman and told her “services were no longer required” & the firm wanted a “traditional travel person”
— Joanna Partridge (@JoannaPartridge) October 23, 2019
At the time, was suggested Harriet Green chose to leave Thomas Cook as her turnaround strategy was complete. MPs asked about seemingly sexist press reports about her and her departure: “It’s on the record I earned less than the previous male CEO and the one after me,” Green said
— Joanna Partridge (@JoannaPartridge) October 23, 2019
Fontenla-Novoa and Green disagree over Thomas Cook collapse
Q: What responsibility do you have for the collapse?
Manny Fontenla-Novoa says he feels sad, but doesn’t feel responsible for the demise of Thomas Cook - eight years after he left.
Bill Scott reiterates that Thomas Cook should have changed its business model faster, embraced digital more.
Harriet Green reiterates that she came into a business in 2012 which had suffered three profit warnings and faced a wall of debt [thanks to Fontenla-Novoa’s MyTravel deal].
So she tried to fix it, through making it more efficient and more digitally-focused -- so the company could target the crucial millennial market.
My responsibility is that I failed to complete that.
Green touches on the tensions with the board and the chairman which seem to have prompted her departure, but insists that in her 28 months she created a vision of what Thomas Cook could have been.
It was a business worth £2bn and would have got stronger. But being prevented from completing that, everyone has to think about what happened.
Manny Fontenla-Novoa may have been stung by the criticism of the company he handed on. He insists that TUI had a similar model when he left Thomas Cook, and it’s still doing well.
Rachel Reeves MP isn’t impressed, telling Fontenla-Novoa he needs to show humility - before wrapping up the session.
Updated
Q: Looking back at your time at Thomas Cook, what do you regret and would have done differently?
Former CFO Bill Scott says The company should have moved online faster [as Harriet Green was arguing].
Former CEO Manny Fontenla-Novoa says the collapse is very sad. He joined Thomas Cook aged 17 and worked his way up.
“Of course” he regrets things, but he refuses to accept that his merger with rival tour operator MyTravel in 2007 was a blunder.
He says he “fundamentally disagrees with Harriet Green” about the direction of the travel industry; he believes high street travel agents still have a future.
Now to Green.... who says there are several things she should have done differently
- On the rate and pace of her business transformation: She should have imputed more to the board, and helped them understand the changes.
- More could have done more to cut the “very heavy” asset base. Planes are very expensive, so the business model could have been changed - maybe through tie-ups with other holiday firms.
- We implemented some Apple-style stores, where people would queue to use augmented reality to see their hotels. I should have pushed that even harder and faster, Green adds.
Updated
Back to Manny Fontenla-Novoa, and his pay package.
Q: You took a £5m bonus for the MyTravel merger - was that a huge incentive to do other deals.
Manny Fontenla-Novoa says that bonus was conditional on delivering synergies, not just doing the deal.
Q: But you earned £12.8m between 2008 and 2012, a time when net profits were almost wiped out. How is that justified?
Fontenla-Novoa agrees this is a large amount of money, although some were paid in shares not cash. Shareholders gave their approval (so they must have though they were deserved)
Q: Why did Thomas Cook fail?
Harriet Green says the entire industry changed to a digital environment, with less need to own assets, and where a huge group of potential clients take their entire vacation online and don’t visit a travel agent.
Thomas Cook, with its enormous bricks and mortar base, wasn’t able to keep up, despite her push for a digital strategy.
Peter Kyle presses Harriet Green about rumours on her departure in 2014:
Q: Were there personality clashes?
I had disagreements with the board about the pace and scale of change, Green says. But her rating from employees was 93% positive.
Q: There were reports about very high levels of personal spending and expenses?
Green says she was away from home, travelling, from Monday to Thursday each week, which incurred obvious costs.
But in the second year, she reduced those expenses. Plus, her financial package was entirely based on performance.
It’s on record, she adds, that she earned less than the male CEO who preceded her, and indeed the one (Peter Fankhauser) who followed her.
Updated
Labour MP Peter Kyle turns to the issue of how Thomas Cook was run by Manny Fontenla-Novoa and Harriet Green - and why the firm eventually failed.
Q: It looks like there was a series of new turnaround plans and operating models, a fresh approach every two years. Was this a company in constant change that never found its feet?
Fontenla-Novoa says the company had a strategy under his watch (2003-2011), including the merger with MyTravel which was applauded by the financial markets and analysts.
But Harriet Green (2012-14) paints a less attractive picture, saying Thomas Cook faced a ‘wall of debt’ and three profits warning when she arrived in 2012. She did three key things:
- Refinance and reduce that debt.
- Build a digital business. Thomas Cook’s 1,000 stores didn’t have a connection to enterprise-level internet when Green arrived, so she tried to realign the company to target “an entire generation who had never been to a store” to buy a holiday
- Make it much more efficient. Centralised procurement was brought in, to end the situation where Thomas Cook was competing with itself to, for instance, buy hotel capacity.
Q: So the business you build just didn’t have time to breath and succeed?
Green agrees that she wasn’t able to complete the plan, which could have taken six years. She insists she was managing to attract younger customers and grow the business..
Q: How did you feel when your plan started to be unpicked?
Incredibly frustrated and sad, Green replies. We were getting results.
Q: Is that the reason you left?
There’s a long pause, before Green explains that in November 2014 Thomas Cook’s chairman told her that they wanted a “traditional travel person” to take the transformation strategy forward.
Q: We heard yesterday that your auditors warned that there was “potential for manipulation” in your goodwill reporting....
Bill Scott says he wouldn’t use that term himself, but it recognises the the fact that different people can approach this issue in different ways.
Q: But is auditing simply a cosy club?
Bill Scott says there was “a lot of challenge” from auditors about Thomas Cook’s use of goodwill.
But the MPs clearly have concerns that Thomas Cook was allowed to overstate the value of its intangible assets, at levels not justified by its actual performance.
Q: Are the accounting standards around goodwill fit for purpose?
Harriet Green, who succeeded Manny Fontenla-Novoa in 2012, says there was “quite intense” discussion at Thomas Cook about how to address risk, and whether there should be a different approach.
Clearly, seeing what has happened, there should have been, Green adds.
[That will fuel concerns that goodwill wasn’t treated correctly at Thomas Cook, making its financial position look stronger than it proved to be].
Former CFO criticised over goodwill
Q: Why did Thomas Cook write down goodwill in 2011-12?
Former chief financial officer Bill Scott says he started in 2012, and found the UK business wasn’t making any money. Thus, the goodwill wouldn’t be justifiable.
Q: But why didn’t you carry out any more goodwill writedowns until you left in 2018?
Stott says the company compared the carrying value of the goodwill to the future prospects of the UK company, and each year it supported the carrying value of the goodwill.
Q: But did you take account of risk, having seen how terrorist attacks and volcanic eruptions can affect your business?
Scott claims they did consider these issues, but there was no need to adjust goodwill.
Q: But then you wrote it down by £1bn in 2019!
Scott (who had left by then) says the ‘once-in-a-generation’ heatwave in 2018 had disrupted trading, creating a “sudden and sharp” decline in profitability.
Q: But other companies suffered from these factors, and they’re not with the liquidators now. What that goodwill really worth £1bn less in 2019 than a year earlier?
Based on the plans at the time, we didn’t think there was a reason to write down goodwill, Scott replies.
Q: But with hindsight, if you could go back to 2018 would you write the goodwill down earlier?
It does appear unusual that there could be that much decline in a goodwill asset in a short period of time, Scott concedes.
Q: Wasn’t goodwill simply misstated on your accounts?
Scott insists that the problem is that trading deteriorated, undermining the assumptions which the business plan was based on.
Q: Were you using your suppliers as a bank, by paying them late and not declaring those liabilities on your balance sheet?
Fontenla-Novoa says the firm’s net debt figure takes this into account.
Q: But you were making suppliers wait 60 to 90 days....
Fontenla-Novoa says Thomas Cook kept to industry standards
Q: You also merged with Co-op Travel in 2010, what impact did that have?
Fontenla-Novoa says it was a non-cash deal, which improved profitability. The Co-op was strong in early-season, full-price sales of package holidays.
Q: But it did hike your debt levels?
Fontenla-Novoa denies it, and is arguing that his strategy of buying high-street travel agents was paying off.
Q: But weren’t there concerns about this exposure to the high street?
Banging the table forcibly, Fontenla-Novoa insists that high street travel agents have a future despite competition from the internet.
Look, he points out, Hays Travel have just bought Thomas Cook’s high street shops.... (for just £6m, we just learned).
Committee Rachel Reeves swings into action, pointing out that Hays isn’t lumbering under a huge debt pile.
Q: Wasn’t that Thomas Cook’s problem -- the borrowing built up on Fontenla-Novoa’s watch? Your successor-but-one, Peter Fankhauser, said he couldn’t explore new opportunities because of it.
Fontenla-Novoa is adamant that there is growth potential in high street travel agencies.
Q: Did Thomas Cook’s problems all stem from the takeover of MyTravel in 2007, and the debt you took on to finance the deal?
Manny Fontenla-Novoa defends his big deal, saying it gave Thomas Cook thre
- 1) a huge presence in the Northern European market (including the biggest business in Scandinavia)
- 2) A business in Canada, which meant it could use its planes in the winter
- 3) Consolidated the UK business
It created a company with £9bn revenue, with 30,000 staff, 20 million passengers and a profit of £350m.
But what about the debt?
We thought the debt was manageable, and gave a “great platform” for growth, Fontenla-Novoa insisted.
But then the financial crisis struck in 2008, which affected relations with banks and bondholders. Plus, there was disruption from the Icelandic volcanic ash cloud, which hurt business.
But your borrowing costs rose from £100m per year in 2011, to £160m per year in 2012-15.... that’s a sharp rise, the committee points out. Did you leave the company with too much debt?
Fontenla-Novoa says Thomas Cook didn’t restructure its debt for many years after he left, so clearly the board still believed in the plan.
Thomas Cook former top bosses face questioning
Now for the main course -- two former CEOs of Thomas Cook.
Manny Fontenla-Novoa ran the company from 2003 to 2011, and was followed by Harriet Green (2012-2014).
Bill Scott, former Thomas Cook CFO, is also before the BEIS committee....
Rachel Reeves MP says there is an urgent need to reform the oversight of the audit industry, following the collapse of Thomas Cook and other problems at firms such as Carillion.
Antoinette Sandbach MP says the FRC should have heard “alarm bells” ringing, when Thomas Cook left so much goodwill on its books every year (as an intangible asset) - regardless of trading conditions, currency moves.
Surely if Thomas Cook was seeking fresh finance, its goodwill couldn’t be as valuable as it claimed?
Sandbach makes a crucial point -- was Thomas Cook’s goodwill the only thing that prevented it being insolvent?
David Rule, executive director of Supervision at the Financial Reporting Council, replies that it’s not their job to regulate the financial health of companies (it’s to ensure that auditing standards are being obeyed).
The Insolvency Service says it won’t examine whether the government acted appropriately over Thomas Cook, and whether it should have rescued the firm rather than letting it fail.
Following @Vernon_Coaker question the Insolvency Service confirms it is NOT the role of official receiver to examine if the government could & should have done more to support #ThomasCook and does not know any official regulator would look at this #ThomasCookCollapse #NeverAgain pic.twitter.com/eqyvGDpSmj
— Unite the union (@unitetheunion) October 23, 2019
FRC: Concerns over goodwill at Thomas Cook
MPs now turn to the Financial Reporting Council, which regulates accountancy firms.
Elizabeth Barrett, their Executive Counsel and Director of Enforcement, reveals that the FRC was already looking into Thomas Cook’s last audit.
She tells MPs that it had two key issues -- whether Thomas Cook was really a ‘going concern’, and they way it was reporting ‘goodwill’ on its accounts.
Barrett says Thomas Cook was in a “risky area”, so should be inspected.
Elizabeth Barrett of accounting regulator the Financial Reporting Council says the FRC was already looking into Thomas Cook's 2018 audit when it went down. It was "identified as being in a risky area that merited inspection".
— Rob Davies (@ByRobDavies) October 23, 2019
They select more than 100 such firms per year though.
Thomas Cook’s treatment of ‘goodwill’ is a key issue in its collapse. It acquired rival MyTravel in 2007 for £2.7bn, and reduced the goodwill attached to it by £1.1bn in May this year.
Updated
Official Receiver looking into Thomas Cook bonus clawbacks
Q: Will the bonuses paid to Thomas Cook directors be clawed back?
Insolvency Service CEO Dean Beale says the Official Receiver is looking into this issue.
He says the contracts agreed with directors are being examined, to see if the contractual arrangements around bonuses have been met.
This will find whether there is “any scope” to claw back bonuses from directors, Beale explains.
My colleague Rob Davies reported last week that there is a two-year limit on the “clawback” powers, which means Thomas Cook’s last CEO Peter Fankhauser could only lose £558,000.
Some early reaction to the Thomas Cook hearing:
Official Receiver's CEO Dean Beale asked about suggestions Thomas Cook Airlines was profitable and didn't need to be put into liquidation.
— Rob Davies (@ByRobDavies) October 23, 2019
"The court was satisfied that that entity was insolvent under the legislation."
Turns out Hays Travel only paid £6 million for the 555 Thomas Cook stores it bought. So just over £10,000 per shop.
— Patrick Whyte (@PaddyWhyte) October 23, 2019
Insolvency Service tells @CommonsBEIS select committee that special managers KPMG and Alix Partners have already received £11m in fees for liquidation of #ThomasCook in first 4 weeks since the company collapsed #ThomasCookCollapse #NeverAgain #PayUpNow https://t.co/VYzzsDfGPy pic.twitter.com/8dUZZYEESY
— Unite the union (@unitetheunion) October 23, 2019
MPs are also raising concerns that Thomas Cook Airlines shouldn’t have been put into liquidation, as it was actually still profitable.
Dean Beale says “The court was satisfied that that entity was insolvent under the legislation.”
Thomas Cook inquiry continues
Over in parliament, the BEIS committee has begun another hearing into the collapse of Thomas Cook. You can watch it live here.
Dean Beale, chief executive officer of the Insolvency Service, has told MPs that Thomas Cook was facing an “urgent cash flow crisis” when it went into liquidation a month ago.
Beale says the ‘special managers’ sent in to run the holiday firm have already run up £11m of fees [that’s KPMG and Alix Partners].
“That sounds like a lot to me”, remarks committee chair Rachel Reeves.
Beale says there’s a lot of work to do across 26 liquidated companies. More than 300 people from these ‘special manager firms ‘ have been helping, working with Thomas Cook staff and handling its cash.
“It’s been a huge undertaking in those first couple of weeks, but it’s reducing rapidly now”.
Beale also reveals that Hays Travel paid £6m to acquire Thomas Cook’s chain of travel agents. MPs suggest that’s quite a bargain....
Our third evidence session on the collapse of Thomas Cook starts in 15 minutes. In the first half we will question the FRC and the Insolvency Service on the role of regulators. You can watch live here https://t.co/w6GCXd7QNV
— Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee (@CommonsBEIS) October 23, 2019
Updated
The Office for National Statistics has reported that people in Northern Ireland have become more anxious, ending a long run of improvement.
Northern Ireland had previously reported lower levels of anxiety than the rest of the UK, but in the 12 months to March it fell back to the UK average.
It’s official, people in the UK got slightly happier in year to March... but sharp rise in levels of anxiety in N. Ireland... @ONS: https://t.co/NobV7RkMf0 pic.twitter.com/go0GkGgf7f
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) October 23, 2019
That period, of course, covered the run-up to the original Brexit date.
Moody's: Brexit uncertainty bad for the economy
Credit rating agency Moody’s has is also concerned about the economic damage which Brexit uncertainty could cause.
Colin Ellis, Moody’s managing director, says it has a knock-on impact on the UK’s fiscal strength:
“The vote in favour of the withdrawal agreement bill indicates that the likelihood of the UK leaving the EU with an exit arrangement in place is higher than it has been for some time.
That said, significant uncertainties remain around the timing and eventual outcome of Brexit, which is likely going to weigh on spending, investment and hiring decisions in the UK for some time, a clear credit negative.”
John Hardy, head of foreign exchange strategy at Saxo Bank, fears that another Brexit delay will hurt business investment - which would be bad for the pound.
The vote in favour of Boris Johnson’s deal with a reasonable 329-299 majority, given that the Northern Irish DUP government coalition partner of voted against. But the 322-308 vote against the compressed timetable to get Brexit delivered before the October 31 deadline means at least another few weeks of political fighting over amending details of the Brexit deal and possibly a UK general election.
It seems clear that Brexit will happen, but the further delay could inflict additional damage on an already struggling UK economy if investment decisions are held back. Sterling got no boost from the first vote and saw a fairly orderly consolidation on the second vote.
Brexit fizzles, too little sizzle elsewhere -> Today's FX Update: https://t.co/fU6h5GIWgT pic.twitter.com/902jmkrQ3j
— John J. Hardy (@johnjhardy) October 23, 2019
Heineken, the world’s second-largest brewer, has also underwhelmed this morning.
The company says operating profits this year will only hit the lower point of its previous guidance. Sales in the Americas have fallen in the last quarter, balanced by strong double-digit growth in Asia Pacific.
Overall, Heineken’s organic business grew by 7.4%, but CEO Jean-François van Boxmeer cautioned:
We are seeing increased volatility across a number of our markets, which we assume to continue for the rest of the year.
Shares in Heineken are down 2%.
Here’s those falling chip stocks:
European chipmakers: Earnings de "Texas Instruments" pèsent ... pic.twitter.com/YijFNNuALu
— Ezints (@ezints) October 23, 2019
The Stoxx 600 index, which tracks a swathe of European companies, has dropped by almost 0.5% this morning, to 392.9 points.
Economics blogger Jeroen Blokland points out that the Stoxx 600 has struggled to get through these nervous 390s in the past:
Fourth time is a charm? The Stoxx Europe 600 Index is hitting its resistance level again. (chart via @business) pic.twitter.com/UNL33ROWLi
— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) October 23, 2019
The weaker pound is propping up the FTSE 100 this morning, but shares in some UK-focused companies are dropping.
Housebuilders Persimmon and Berkeley Group are both down 1.2%, on fears that another Brexit delay will deter people from moving house. Anxiety about consumer spending has also pushed Autotrader, the classified car adverts firm, down 1.8%.
The FTSE 250 index of medium-sized companies, more focused on the UK, has dropped by 0.3%.
Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, hasn’t lost faith in the pound -- pointing out that a disorderly Brexit still looks unlikely.
“The likelihood of a Brexit deal has risen, but crucially the outcome that investors feared the most, a no-deal Brexit that could have pulled the pound down to $1.12, seems less likely now than at any time in the last few months.
We retain our overweight position in sterling versus the US dollar in our FX strategy. If, as now seems likely, we move in the direction of a general election, we expect GBPUSD to settle in a 1.26–1.32 range. If the Brexit deal eventually passes, we would expect GBPUSD to rally to 1.35.”
The French, German, Italian and Spanish stock markets have all opened lower, as investors face up to another Brexit delay.
Tech stocks are among the big fallers, hurt by Texas Instrument’s disappointing sales forecast last night.
TI’s chips are used in a wide range of electronic devices, so is a good indicator of how the technology sector is faring.
The Dallas-based group was one of the first chipmakers to warn last year of softer demand in the sector, amid weaker economic growth globally and US-China trade tensions....
Texas Instruments’ outlook for revenue in the fourth quarter, at $3.07bn to $3.33bn, was softer than the $3.59bn analysts expected. Revenue from the third quarter also fell shy of estimates.
The last 14 hours have been quite volatile for the pound, as traders around the globe watched the events in parliament.
It scampered towards $1.30 as MPs voted in favour, in principle, of Johnson’s Brexit deal (a Second Reading, in Westminster jargon).
But then it took a dive once MPs refused the PM’s plan to get the deal through the Commons in three days.
But at $1.286, the pound is still about 5% higher than earlier this month.
Global mkts slip on Brexit limbo & as investors continued to watch earnings reps for signs of health in global econ. Semiconductor stocks tumbled after Texas Instruments raised alarms w/Q4 rev forecast. Pound extended its slide to $1.2863. Bonds gain w/US 10y 1.75%. Bitcoin <$8k. pic.twitter.com/bu3x3FCAQH
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) October 23, 2019
Asia-Pacific markets hit by Texas Instrument gloom
Asia-Pacific stock markets had a weak day, as Texas Instrument’s gloomy outlook hit confidence.
China’s CSI300 index has shed 0.75%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost almost 1%.
Traders are worried that TI’s weak revenue outlook showed that the tech sector is suffering from the ongoing US-China trade war. That’s a bad sign for global growth.
Steve Miley, senior market analyst at www.asktraders.com, says:
Very disappointing revenue warnings from Texas Instruments after the bell, alongside the negative tone from the Brexit developments saw significant losses for equity markets in Asia overnight and for European and US futures markets.
Updated
Introduction: More uncertainty
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
There’s an air of disappointment in the markets today, as Brexit hits another pothole and fresh signs of economic slowdown appear.
The pound has slid away from the heady heights of $1.30 seen earlier this week, and is now bobbing around $1.286 after MPs rejected Boris Johnson’s plan to fast-track his Brexit deal into law.
The legislation has now been ‘paused’ -- creating new uncertainty as we face up to the prospect of a new three-month delay to Brexit, or a general election.
Hopes of a breakthrough last night had pushed European stock markets higher, with Germany’s DAX near a one-year high. Stock are expected to drop back this morning, though.
European Opening Calls:#FTSE 7211 -0.02%#DAX 12692 -0.49%#CAC 5623 -0.61%#MIB 22398 -0.40%#IBEX 9331 -0.53%#STOXX 3585 -0.54%#SA40 49454 -0.31%
— IGSquawk (@IGSquawk) October 23, 2019
Michael Hewson of CMC Markets says the government is “taking time out” by pausing the legislation, but not abandoning it.
Importantly, Boris Johnson said that the UK would leave the EU with this deal come what may, but did not stick to his Oct 31st do-or-die mantra.
This could be an important, indeed key, shift in the government’s position as it may indicate a willingness to extend and then seek to get the bill through Parliament. My initial thoughts are that the government will let the EU offer the extension to get the bill through, and Boris can square the circle later with amendments etc.
Brexit’s not the only worry, though. Last night, chipmaker Texas Instruments alarmed Wall Street with a rather weak Q4 revenue forecast that was up to $500m below forecasts.
This has crushed hopes of a turnaround in the semiconductor market - a handy gauge of economic growth.
Shares in TI plunged 10% in after-hours trading, dragging other chipmakers down as well.
The Texas Instrument that's playing is the sad trombone pic.twitter.com/BmkUc4cGOz
— BOO!-ke Kawa (@LJKawa) October 22, 2019
TI chief financial officer Rafael Lizardi blamed the slowdown on the ongoing US-China trade war, telling investors:
It is due to macro events, and specifically, the trade tensions, and if you think about when there’s tensions in trade and obstacles to trade, what do businesses do?
They become more cautious and they pull back, and we are at the very end of a long supply chain.
TI must be hoping furiously that the ‘Phase One’ trade deal announced by Donald Trump two weeks ago actually leads to a full agreement.
Another bellwether stock, McDonalds, also disappointed the markets yesterday with slower-than-expected sales growth.
Also coming up today
The parliamentary inquiry into the collapse of Thomas Cook will hear from its former CEOs Manny Fontenla-Novoa and Harriet Green, plus regulators.
Yesterday, MPs heard that the company’s auditors had also been paid to provide other lucrative services -- surely a potential conflict of interest?
The agenda
- 10am BST: BEIS committee hearing into Thomas Cook collapse
- 3pm BST: Eurozone consumer confidence survey: expected to fall to -6.7 from -6.5
- 3.30pm BST: US weekly oil inventory figures