Back in the markets, the gold price has dropped to a one-month low today.

Investors are moving out of safe-haven assets such as precious metals, and the Japanese yen, amid expectations of fresh stimulus packages from major central banks.

This has pushed gold down to $1,490 per ounce, down 8 dollars today, and shy of the six-year high ($1,557) hit last week.

So is gold losing its lustre? Not according to analysts at Citi! They’ve predicted that it will rise over the next couple of years, possibly hitting an all-time high of $2,000 per ounce.

As Citi told clients:

“We now expect spot gold prices to trade stronger for longer, possibly breaching $2,000/oz and posting new cyclical highs at some point in the next year or two.”

What could trigger this? Citi identify two likely causes -- a global slowdown (pushing money out of risky assets) and US interest rate cuts (fuelling inflation).

The jump in earnings in July could be very good news for pensioners.

Under the government’s “triple lock” system, pensions will rise in line with wage increases, inflation, or 2.5% (whichever is higher).

July’s earnings figures have previously been used for this calculation, implying that the state pension could rise by 4% next year (as inflation is only around 2%).

However, there’s no guarantee that the triple-lock will continue to exist in the next parliament. In 2015, there was speculation that the Conservative Party would downgrade it, although this didn’t actually happen.

Financial journalist Paul Lewis has tweeted that we’ll know for sure next month.

City economists don’t share the government’s optimistic view about today’s UK jobs report.

Several are concerned that the labour market is cooling, with job creation slowing and vacancies down too.

Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macro says we shouldn’t be distracted by the drop in the jobless rate to 3.8%:

The renewed fall in the unemployment rate distracts from an otherwise troubling labour market report. Employment was only 31K—0.1%—higher in the three months to July than in the previous three months, well below the 89K average increase seen since the Brexit vote in 2016....

Most surveys of employment intentions also have deteriorated over the summer and now point to negligible growth in employee numbers. Britain’s so-called “jobs miracle” is starting to lose its shine.

Howard Archer of the EY Item Club fears that the jobs market will continue to cool, which could dampen wage growth as well.

The suspicion has to be that the labour market will falter further in the near term at least as companies worry about the very real possibility of a “no deal” Brexit at the end of October, an unsettled domestic political environment and a challenging global economy. August’s further drop in vacancies fuels this suspicion. Much will obviously depends on what happens with Brexit on 31 October and how the economy reacts

We are also doubtful that earnings growth can make further gains – and it may well ease back from July’s levels. With employment growth likely to slow and companies cautious over the outlook among major uncertainties, there is survey evidence that pay awards may be levelling off.

PwC economist Jing Teow agrees that there are “some signs of softening” in the labour market.

The continued decline in job creation and vacancies point to continued uncertainty as businesses wait and see how Brexit plays out before making firm hiring plans. The UK growth outlook beyond the current quarter remains unclear due both to alternative Brexit scenarios and to uncertainty around the global economic outlook.”

Britain’s employment minister, Mims Davies, has welcomed the news that wages (+4%) are outpacing inflation (2%).

“Wages are consistently rising faster than inflation – now for over a year-and-a-half – meaning we’re seeing a sustained boost in pay, supporting consumer confidence and giving a vital lift to millions of households who gain from greater financial security.

She also hails the rise in female employment (although, as mentioned earlier, this is also because the retirement age for women has increased from 60 to 65).

“This joint record employment rate and decades-low unemployment shows our labour market is booming. It’s especially pleasing to see continued record female employment at 72.1%, signalling the great strides we’ve made in empowering women in the workplace, whatever their background.

“There is still more to do. But today’s positive figures again show a thriving, diverse and resilient labour market to be proud of, and we are in great shape for Brexit on 31 October.”

Another worrying sign - the number of vacancies in the UK have fallen.

In the three months to August, there were aroumd 812,000 vacancies in the UK, 23,000 fewer than for the previous quarter (March to May 2019) and 33,000 fewer than for the previous year.

Tej Parikh, chief economist at the Institute of Directors, fears the UK’s “jobs boom” could be cooling.

He suspects Brexit uncertainty is a factor, along with the pick-up in wages.

For a long time, businesses have been eager to expand their workforce despite difficult economic conditions. With the supply of available workers shrinking and uncertainty lingering, firms are now beginning to dial down their recruitment ambitions.

“Vacancies are likely to continue falling. It’s becoming harder for business leaders to do any meaningful workforce planning, let alone find the talent that they need. High costs and an unclear view of future revenue have also led some to hold off on new hires.

Meanwhile, though the ongoing strength in pay packets is a plus for workers, wages may be pushing at their limit. Cash-strapped SMEs in particular are already finding it difficult to compete for talent by upping their salary offers.

Builders, bankers and other service sector workers enjoyed the biggest jump in pay over the last year.

Here’s the details of the jump in total pay (wages plus bonuses) in the UK in the last quarter:

Total pay, which includes bonuses, increased by 4% on the year to reach £542. Total pay increased by a larger percentage (4.1%) in the private sector (to reach £541) than in the public sector (3.7%) even though public sector pay was higher (£546).

Comparing total pay growth by sector shows that the average pay growth in the construction sector (6.2%) was the highest, followed by that in the finance and business services sector (5.3%) and the total services sector (4.2%). The lowest total pay growth (2.4%) was recorded in the manufacturing sector, 0.4 percentage points behind the growth in the wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants sector.

The finance and business services sector earned the highest amount (£697), followed by the construction (£652) and manufacturing (£614) sectors. The wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants sector was paid the least (£364).

Breaking: As feared, job creation across the UK has slowed... but there’s good news too -- wages are picking up.

The number of people in work rose by 31,000 in the three months to July, the Office for National Statistics reports.

That’s a sharp fall on the 115,000 new jobs created in the quarter to June, suggesting that companies have cut back on hiring.

It means there are 32.78 million people in work, down from a record high of 32.81 million recorded a month ago.

But in better news, total pay has risen by 4% over the last year -- the highest since 2008. That includes bonuses.

Basic pay rose by 3.8% year-on-year, down from 3.9% a month ago (updated).

The ONS also reported that

• The UK employment rate was estimated at 76.1%; this is the joint-highest on record since comparable records began in 1971, and higher than a year earlier (75.5%).
• The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 3.8%; this is lower than a year earlier (4.0%) and unchanged on the quarter.
• The UK economic inactivity rate was estimated at 20.8%; this is lower than a year earlier (21.2%) and unchanged on the quarter.
• In real terms (after adjusting for inflation), annual growth in total pay is estimated to be 2.1% and annual growth in regular pay is estimated to be 1.9%.

More to follow!

Overnight, the latest Chinese inflation data has given us plenty to ponder.

The bad news for consumers is that pork prices have surged by over 46% year-on-year, as African swine fever rages. More than one million pigs are though to have been culled in recent months, in an attempt to slow the epidemic.

Meanwhile, China’s producer price index (PPI) fell by 0.8%.

That means factories are charging less for their goods when they sell them to the wholesale market That could be a sign of weaker demand, as the trade war with America hurts the economy.

Neil Wilson of Markets.com thinks this decline in factory gate prices is worrying.

China’s produce price index declined 0.8% in August amid falling demand for finished goods.

The fear is not just that it signals weakness in domestic and overseas demand, but that China is exporting deflation by cutting prices and making it even harder for central banks like the ECB to achieve their inflation goals. Could be a tough session in Europe.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

We know the UK economy is still growing, but is it still creating enough jobs?

After Monday’s forecast-beating GDP report, attention is turning to the latest labour market report. It’ll show how many jobs were created and lost in the three months to July, and whether wages are still growing faster that prices in the shops.

Economists expect a mixed picture. On the upside, the jobless rate is expected to have stuck at 3.9% - close to a 44-year low.

But job creation could have slowed sharply over the summer. The City expects employment rose by 55,000 during the quarter, down from a more impressive 115,000 a month ago.

A weak reading might show that UK companies are cutting back on new hires, as they watch the Brexit crisis play out.

Earnings growth may also be weakening. Basic pay is tipped to have risen by 3.8% over the last year, down from 3.9% (an 11-year high) in the 12 months to June.

Elsa Lignos of Royal Bank of Canada says the wage picture is crucial:

Our expectation is that employment growth will remain positive again this month and the unemployment rate will remain at 3.9%. However, the key focus will be on wages.

Our expectation is that regular pay growth (i.e., excluding bonuses) will slip back a little this month, but that shouldn’t detract too much from the bigger picture, which is that pay growth remains firm overall. That is certainly the message that the Bank of England is taking away from the moment.

In addition, that pay growth supporting domestically generated inflation is the main reason that the MPC can remain on hold as it awaits clarity on Brexit.

Also coming up today

Fashion chain JD Sports, gambling operation 888 and equipment rental firm Ashtead are reporting results this morning (more on all that shortly).

Stock markets look subdued, as investors wonder whether to expect fresh stimulus measures from the world’s central bankers (the ECB could start this ball rolling on Thursday).

Plus it’s the first day of the Frankfurt Motor Show, where manufacturers will be promoting new models. Expect a big focus on new electric cars, and plenty of anxiety about trade wars, Brexit and the global slowdown.

The agenda

• All day: Frankfurt Motor Show. Expect lots of shiny new models, and worries about Brexit
• 9.30am: UK Labour Market Report: Jobless rate expected to remain at 3.9%, but job creation could slow to 55,000 from 115,000