Richard Partington Economics correspondent 

UK economy grows as manufacturers stockpile before Brexit

GDP growth of 0.2% in February confounds expectations of slowdown
  
  

Quality control at a Scottish knitwear company.
Quality control at a Scottish knitwear company. The ONS said services again drove the economy. Photograph: Murdo Macleod/The Guardian

The British economy continued to grow in February as manufacturers rushed to stockpile goods before Brexit, according to official figures.

The Office for National Statistics said gross domestic product grew by 0.2% in February from a month earlier, confounding City economists’ expectations for zero growth as Brexit nears and the world economy slows.

Over the three months to February, the rate of growth remained unchanged at 0.3% from the three-month figure recorded in January. The annual GDP growth rate accelerated to 2%, the highest since November 2017, although against a comparable period in 2018 when the economy was weak.

graph

Rob Kent-Smith, the head of GDP at the ONS, said: “GDP growth remained modest in the latest three months. Services again drove the economy, with a continued strong performance in IT.

“Manufacturing also continued to recover after weakness at the end of last year with the often-erratic pharmaceutical industry, chemicals and alcohol performing well in recent months.”

The latest snapshot appears to suggest the British economy is managing to navigate the political chaos in Westminster relatively unscathed. Monthly GDP growth is still, however, much lower than summer 2018, when warm weather helped drive stronger rates of expansion.

John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, said the three-month growth rate of 0.3% showed the government lacked competence and vision on the economy. “These weak growth figures are a direct result of this government’s Brexit bungling and long-running economic mismanagement,” he said.

Stockpiling may also have boosted economic growth. The ONS said it found “some qualitative evidence” that manufacturing firms changed the timing of their activities before the original date for leaving the EU on 29 March. Whitehall’s statistics body said it was unable to quantify the impact.

Industrial production jumped by 0.6% during February, driven by a 0.9% increase in manufacturing, the second monthly rise in a row after a prolonged slump at factories across the country. Basic metals production and the making of computer, electronic and optical products drove much of the increase.

Britain’s dominant services sector, which contributes about four fifths of GDP and covers sectors from banking to retail, saw a modest increase of 0.1% on the month. Construction industry output grew by 0.4%.

Economists said mild weather at the start of 2019 had helped to drive stronger levels of economic growth, compared with the slowdown at the start of 2018 when freezing temperatures and snow from the “beast from the east” caused cranes and diggers to fall idle.

Ian Stewart, chief economist at accountancy and consulting group Deloitte, said: “The UK is proving more resilient than expected in the face of a global slowdown and Brexit headwinds. The pace of growth could be choppy, but the UK is likely to grow at about the same pace as the euro area this year.” According to the International Monetary Fund, the UK will grow at 1.2% this year, compared with 1.3% for the eurozone.

Despite the better short-term news for growth, there are fears that the economy could slow later in the year should manufacturers run down their stockpiles rather than producing more goods – should the risk of a disorderly Brexit fade.

Stockpiling was evident in trade figures from the ONS, which show Britain recorded a record goods trade deficit in January and February, as the UK bought in more from overseas than was sold abroad. The total trade deficit for goods and services widened by £5.5bn in the three months to February.

Economists also warned that the political chaos over Brexit intensified in March, which could have sapped the economy of its momentum. The stronger performance also comes before Britain has left the EU, while the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday that a disruptive no-deal scenario could spark a two-year recession.

Yael Selfin, chief economist at the accountancy firm KPMG, said: “The continued uncertainty will take its toll on the UK economy and we expect growth for the next two years to be well below that of most G7 economies, despite the slowing growth momentum elsewhere.”

 

Leave a Comment

Required fields are marked *

*

*