Graeme Wearden 

FTSE 100 hits two-year closing low as ‘Santa Rally’ turns to rout – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the final trading day before Christmas, as Britain’s FTSE 100 loses £76bn during December selloff
  
  

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange last week
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange last week Photograph: Bryan R Smith/Reuters

Summary: Santa Rally is cancelled

With City traders are now scrambling to the shops, the bar, or the pile of unfinished wrapping, it’s time to, err, wrap up here too.

So, to quickly recap.

The UK stock market has slumped to a new two-year closing low, on the final trading day before Christmas. The FTSE 100 dropped 35 points, or 0.5%, to 6685, its weakest close since September 2016.

The traditional Santa Rally is officially cancelled (we can only speculate about what traders did to deserve such losses).

The selloff means that £76bn has been wiped off the FTSE 100 this month, as world markets have suffered one of their worst Decembers ever.

As David Jones, Chief Market Strategist at Capital.com, put it:

As stock markets wind down for Christmas there is only one thing that we can be sure of - there was no Santa Rally.

It has been a terrible month for investors - so far the Dow Jones is on track for its worst December since 1932, having lost 12% for the month as of last Friday’s close. Investors will be glad of some time off from the massive sides - but it does not bode well for 2019.

The FTSE 250 index of medium-sized companies also took a pre-Christmas bath, dropping 0.75% to its lowest level since November 2016.

Investors continue to worry that the global economy is weakening, and anxious that Donald Trump could attempt to fire Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell.

Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin has caused fresh jitters, by announcing that he’s been speaking to America’s top bankers to check they have enough liquidity.

That’s worrying investors in America. The New York stock market has just opened in the red, with the Dow Jones industrial average has opened lower.

That’s probably all for today from London. Hope you all have a lovely festive break. We’ll be back when the markets reopen on Thursday. Merry Christmas! GW

Updated

Congratulations to anyone who finds a steak bake in their stocking tomorrow.....

The French stock market is also lacking any pre-Christmas fizz.

The CAC index, which tracks the biggest French companies, is down 1.5% today at its lowest level in over two years.

Further confirmation that it’s been a rough year for shares around the world, with US banks and emerging markets doing particularly badly.

Here’s the Press Association’s take:

The FTSE 100 index closed at its lowest level in two years on Christmas Eve as an attempt by the US treasury secretary to reassure investors mis-fired.

In a half-day session, the blue-chip index closed down 35.18 points, or 0.52%, at 6,685.99, its lowest level since September 2016.

US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin called the heads of the six largest American banks to check if they had enough cash to see them through any market downturn.

The move was an effort to reassure investors about the US government’s partial shutdown over budget spending for a border wall with Mexico and speculation that President Donald Trump is considering firing US Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell.

Fiona Cincotta, a senior market analyst at City Index, said: “The stand-off between President Trump and Congress over the financing of the Mexican wall seems set to continue into January with the US government unable to pass any laws in the near future. All of the markets are slightly distorted today because of lower than usual volumes and a short trading day.

With the London stock market closed, traders can make a late dash to the shops!

And they’ll find them quite busy.

Consultancy firm Springboard reports that there is a last-minute surge in Christmas shopping.

Footfall this morning was +10.3% higher than yesterday, and 6.8% above last year’s Christmas Eve.

Financial experts are continuing to criticise US Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin, over his attempts to reassure the markets:

Here’s Bloombeg’s Tim O’Brien.

Stephen Innes of OANDA is also unimpressed by Mnuchin’s public declarations not to panic:

Honestly, this would be comic if it wasn’t so tragic as the name is ridiculous and depressing the same time, the ultimate markets tragicomedy unfolds.

It is getting so bad out here that investors might be in the midst of giving up on the US administrations policies, voting with their feet and fleeing risk markets en masse.

Updated

FTSE 100 hits lowest close since September 2016

Newsflash: Britain’s blue-chip stock index has closed at its lowest level in over two years, as the stock market selloff refuses to end.

The FTSE 100 has ended the shortened Christmas Eve trading session at 6685 points, down 35 points or 0.5%.

That’s its lowest closing price since 14 September 2016 [but 40 points above last week’s intraday lows]

This means that the FTSE 100 has lost more than 4% in December alone, wiping out £76bn of shareholder value since the end of November.

For 2018 as a whole, the Footsie is down 13% this year, in a grim 12 months for investors around the globe.

The traditional Santa rally has clearly not come to the City this year. Since the 1980s, there have only been six Decembers in which the FTSE 100 didn’t rise. 2018 is very likely to be another one.

Economic growth worries, the US government shutdown, trade tensions, and Brexit have all taken their toll this month.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s efforts to calm the markets, by announcing that the top US banks have enough liquidity, may not be helping.

As the Financial Times put it:

The statement appeared to be an attempt by the administration to calm nerves after a volatile week for traders and media reports that President Donald Trump was contemplating firing Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell.

Win Thin, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, warned that among traders, “sentiment is so negative right now that markets will assume the worst” about any suggestion that Mr Trump could seek to remove Mr Powell.

“Until this weekend, markets were not that concerned about liquidity or clearance issues,” Mr Thin said. “At best, Mnuchin made a rookie policy mistake in trying to reassure markets; at worst, Mnuchin knows something that the markets don’t.”

Updated

Shares are coming under more pressure in London, with just a few minutes trading left today.

The FTSE 100 is now down 0.75%, or 51 points, as traders hear that Wall Street may open lower....

Global slowdown worries are also hitting commodity prices.

Aluminium has hit a 16-month low this morning, as traders worry that demand for metals will weaken in 2019.

Aluminium prices have also weakened since the US said it would lift sanctions on Russian producer Rusal last week. More here.

Updated

Sky: Ant Financial in talks to buy World First

Newsflash: Sky’s tireless City editor has a Christmas Eve scoop!

Britain’s FTSE 250 index isn’t getting any sprinkling of good cheer from Santa either.

The index, which contains medium-sized, UK focused companies too small for the FTSE 100, has dropped 0.6% so far today - down 97 points at 17,345.

Nearly every sector is in the red:

Pharmaceuticals firm Indivior is the biggest faller, followed by gambling firms Playtech and 888 Holdings.

Playtech warned shareholders this morning that a new Italian gambling law will hit its profits.

More reaction to Steven Mnuchin’s decision to convene a crisis team to calm the markets:

As it’s nearly Christmas......

With an hour’s trading to go in London, the FTSE 100 is still in the red.

We’re currently off 23 points at 6689, a drop of 0.5%, meaning the Footsie could hit a new two-year closing low today....

2018 is shaping up to be the worst year for the markets since the financial crisis of 2008.

And there’s plenty of concern that 2019 will be tough too.

Michael Hewson of CMC Markets says there are several reasons to worry:

One of many reasons why investors have got more than a little spooked is down to valuations, the outlook for global growth, as well as concern over the direction of Fed policy, which has seen US yields slide sharply after peaking at multi year highs earlier this year.

Uncertainty over the future direction of Fed policy has seen US policymakers start to resile from expectations around multiple rate rises next year, though markets still appear to be clinging to the possibility of one rate rise next year.

The US-China trade dispute is another factor, as is Europe’s slowing economy and political tensions:

There is also concern about the direction of travel in respect of the European growth story with Italy in danger of falling into recession in the last part of this year, while the young pretender to Angela Merkel’s crown as the head of Europe, Emmanuel Macron appears to have fallen flat on his face by neglecting France domestic policies in his desire for a more closely integrated Europe.

This “gilets jaunes” protests which have blighted Paris are a classic case of political deafness to an increasingly squeezed middle that is fed up with fuel tax rises and cost of living squeezes, while the more mobile tax base benefits from tax reductions. To take the sting out of this, President Macron has embarked on a massive spending giveaway which is likely to send the French budget deficit to 3.5% of GDP in 2019.

Updated

World stock markets are suffering their seventh straight day of losses today, as rising pessimism pushes shares steadily down.

Reuters has more details:

MSCI’s world equity index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, was 0.15 percent lower on the day and down almost 7 percent in the past seven sessions -- its worst stretch of daily losses since January 2016. The index is also just off its lowest level since March 2017.

“There are a whole number of factors that have triggered this latest risk off climate, including the Fed’s very modest deviation from its (rate hiking) plan and the government shutdown in the United States,” said Investec economist Philip Shaw.

The U.S. Senate has been unable to break an impasse over U.S. President Donald Trump’s demand for more funds for a wall on the border with Mexico, and a senior official said the shutdown could continue until January 3.

“We may get some clarity on several factors in early 2019 starting with a clearer line of sight on the prospect for a resolution in U.S.-China trade dispute, but until there are some nerves flying around,” Investec’s Shaw said.

Anxiety over the economic and political outlook in 2019 is pushing the gold price higher.

Gold has gained around six dollars per ounce today to $1,262, which would be its highest closing value since last June:

Bad new for any Wise Men who left their Christmas shopping to the last minute...

Gold is traditionally seen as a safe store of value in troubled times (assuming you can find someone who wants to buy it then!). So the prospect of the global economy slowing next year, and the risk that the US government shutdown rumbles on, is good for bullion.

David Jones, Chief Market Strategist at Capital.com, explains:

Gold has been the shining performer in recent weeks. As uncertainty ramps up in other assets, gold has been enjoying something of a bounce back from its summer lows.

It has risen by $100 an ounce since then, and is up by more than 6% over the past four months. If the wider uncertainty continues into 2019, gold could well retain its popularity and be a market to watch. (Prices weren’t available for the frankincense and myrrh markets)

£76bn wiped off FTSE 100 this month

It really has been a bleak month for shares in London.

The FTSE 100 index (packed this top multinational companies) has shed around 300 points in December. It ended November at 6980 points, but is now hovering around 6684 points after several big losses.

By my maths, that means some £76bn has been wiped off the blue-chip index this month.

European bank shares are dipping this morning, as markets react to the news that America’s stock market crisis team is being convened.

Financial stocks across Europe are down 0.8% on average, led by Romania’s Raiffeisen Bank (-4.3%).

Clearly investors aren’t overjoyed to learn that Treasury secretary Mnuchin has been on the phone to America’s bank bosses, checking they have enough money....

Updated

Some of the world’s latest technology companies have been hit hard by this autumn’s selloff.

As this chart from the FT shows, Amazon and Apple have both lost a quarter of their value since the summer.

Amazon, which was worth a staggering one trillion dollars in September, is now only valued at $673bn. Apple, which hit the $1tn mark first, is now valued at $715bn.

Tech firms have been hurt by the US-China trade war, which threatens to hurt global growth as well as driving up import costs. The prospect of tighter regulation, following data protection scandals, have also weight on the sector.

Naeem Aslam of Think Markets fears that Wall Street will also continue its December losses (having already slumped by more than 10% this month):

US futures are trading lower as investors focus on the US partial government shutdown. The disappointing fact is that there is no immediate end in sight for this resolution...

The ongoing downtrend would continue to dominate today and markets are likely to close lower again.

The big fallers in London this morning are water group United Utilities (-3.4%), advertising group WPP (-2.7%) and tobacco group Imperial Brands (-2.3%).

Mike van Dulken of Accendo Markets says there’s lots worrying investors right now, particularly from the Trump White House.....

Markets are still under pressure from last week’s more hawkish update from the US Federal Reserve, exacerbating fears about slowing growth and more expensive refinancing following years of stimulus.

This is on top of pre-existing trade war fears with the US Trade Secretary saying “All auto tariff options still on the table”. That said, China says it will remove some import and export tariffs on 1 Jan which has helped improve sentiment overnight.

Countering this nugget of positivity, however, we have; 1) a US government shutdown (Senate Democrats refusing the President’s demands for border wall funds); 2) US Defence Chief leaving even earlier than expected, and; 3) Treasury Secretary awkwardly calling Bank executives about market stability after a) market sell-off, b) government shutdown, and c) rumours the President asked if he could fire Fed Chair Powell.

Mixed signals a plenty into Christmas!

This morning’s losses mean the FTSE 100 is only 40 points away from the 28-month low struck last week.

And there’s a strong risk that the Footsie will close at a new two-year low, as this chart shows:

Early losses in European markets

You can track Santa’s progress via Norad (the North American Aerospace Defense Command), who have been motoring his progress every year for decades.

But it’s pretty obvious that he’s not coming to trading floors in London, Paris, and Madrid.

Europe’s main stock market indices are all in the red this morning, inflicting further losses on investor portfolios.

In London, technology and telecoms firms, consumer groups, utilities and industrial firms are all down.

Updated

Mnuchin speaks to US bank bosses....

Overnight, US treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin revealed he has spoken with the heads of America’s six largest banks.

The move appears to be an attempt to reassure investors after the recent stock market losses, and anxiety over the government shutdown.

Mnuchin tweeted that the CEOs told him they all have “ample liquidity available for lending to consumer, business markets, and all other market operations”.

That’s a relief, except investors are now wondering WHY Mnuchin is so keen to reassure them....

Mnuchin is also planning to convene the president’s working group on financial markets, later today. The group, created following the stock market crash of October 1987, is known more commonly as the “plunge protection team” and met in 2009 in the latter stages of the financial crisis.

More here:

Trading in Asia-Pacific stock markets has been weak, with the South Korean Kospi index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng both dipping.

Tokyo was closed, though, to mark the Japanese Emperor’s birthday.

Introduction: No Santa Rally this year

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Despite its best efforts to be good all year, the City won’t be getting a visit from Santa this year.

After weeks of anxious trading, and occasional wild plunges, investors may be struggling to find a spare sixpence for the Christmas pudding.

Slowdown worries, trade war fears, Brexit...the list of factors blamed for the rout are as familiar as Santa’s herd of reindeer.

And even Rudolph’s famously colourful nose would be overshadowed by the sea of red that engulfed the markets this month.

During December, the FTSE 100 has tumbled by 3.7%, and is down a painful 12.5% during 2018.

Wall Street has been harder hit - the S&P 500 has lost 12% this month alone! Unless there’s a massive rebound soon, we’ll be looking at the worst December since the Great Recession.

Today’s is only a half-day trading session, giving traders (and live-bloggers!) the opportunity for some last-minute gift-shopping.

But there’s no festive spirits in the City this morning; the Footsie is expected to fall by 45 points, back towards last week’s 28-month low.

Donald Trump continues to worry the markets. Over the weekend, there were several reports that the president has discussed whether he could sack Federal Reserve governor Jerome Powell.

Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin has denied this, adding that Trump realises he can’t dismiss Powell anyway.

But still, the attacks on Powell - on top of the US government shutdown - are a worry.

As Steven Innes of trading firm OANDA says:

Honestly, I couldn’t believe my eyes when I read the Bloomberg headline over the weekend that Trump was considering firing Powell. Markets rise on confidence as well as economic growth and coming off one of the worst weeks since GFC; one would have expected more reassuring comments from the Whitehouse

Thankfully Mnuchin came to the rescue to squash any thought’s of this happening as I was about to crazy glue my “sell button” down at Monday’s open.

There’s nothing in the economic calendar today, but we’ll be watching for any pre-Christmas developments....

 

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