They’re terrified of Trump
Donald Trump has been on everyone’s mind, even though he has been on the other side of the Atlantic this week preparing for his inauguration.
Most criticism of the incoming US president was firmly off the record, showing that no one wants to be caught in the firing line of @realdonaldtrump’s Twitter feed.
One insider said some US executives are nervous of being seen posing with Chinese leaders, in case the Oval Office saw this as unpatriotic.
Banks are off the hook
Banks, particularly those stationed in the City of London, have been the unexpected beneficiaries of the new mood of populism sweeping the west.
Having been treated as pariahs for causing the global financial crisis, banks are now wooed by all and sundry. The UK government is keen to reassure Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and the other Wall Street names that they’ll still be able to operate in the London, while European leaders see the opportunity to steal jobs.
Banks are fully aware they’re no longer on the naughty step, and have been dropping hints that they’ll leave London if they don’t get the deal they want.
Predictions are out, unless you’re Soros
Sir Martin Sorrell, the boss of advertising giant WPP, said he was out of the forecasting game after confidently predicting at last year’s Davos that Hillary Clinton would be US president and Brexit would never happen.
This year, the chastened Mystic Megs of Davos were reluctant to put their credentials on the line by calling the French presidential election, for example.
But George Soros – still making headines at 86 – retains the nerve to predict that markets will soon fall, Theresa May won’t last long, and that US checks and balances will stop Trump being a dictator. We wouldn’t put much money on another Soros idea – that Britain might quit the EU on a Friday and rejoin on a Monday.
Britain gets a cool reception
Theresa May and Philip Hammond had the unenviable task of explaining to the overwhelmingly pro-remain crowd at Davos what the government was up to now that the decision had gone the other way.
Perhaps understandably, May’s reception was cool rather than rapturous – even though she sought to reassure her audience that her vision was a global Britain rather than a siege economy. Hammond didn’t help the mood by repeatedly hinting that Britain could slash taxes and burn regulations if it doesn’t get what it wants.
Martin Wolf of the FT got a laugh by calling this the “Singapore-on-Thames” option – but Europe doesn’t get the joke.
Yesterday’s men flock to Davos
Enoch Powell was wrong when he said every political career ends in failure. For some washed-up politicians, it ends in Davos.
George Osborne, a WEF darling only 12 months ago, has gone from debating the global economy with Christine Lagarde to posing with the Clooneys at a swanky drinks reception. Davos’s nightlife is a great chance to relive Oxford student days, and Osborne was seen enjoying a scotch at PR magnate Matthew Freud’s bash at a private chalet at the Schatzalp hotel, only reachable by funicular railway.
Other one-time political heavyweights who couldn’t keep away included David Cameron, widely criticised this week for holding the EU referendum, Gordon Brown and Peter Mandelson.
Climate change fears abound
Campaigners are worried that the years of slow progress made on climate change are going to melt away once Trump is in the White House.
Norwegian prime minister Erna Solberg spoke for many when she warned that Trump might simply not implement the Paris agreement, to keep global warming “well below” 2C.
Activists at Davos told us they were keeping a very close eye on the Trump administration, fearing it will alter or make unavailable vital climate change data.
China is flexing its muscles
At Davos you know a speaker is a real draw if they manage to fill both the cavernous conference hall and also the overspill room.
That was the case for Chinese president Xi Jinping’s opening address, seen as an attempt by Beijing to seize the mantle of cheerleader for globalisation from Washington.
The word on the floor is that China isn’t ready to dislodge the US – and might not win a trade war either. But it was dominating Davos, with Alibaba’s Jack Ma signing a massive Olympic sponsorship deal and chiding America for wasting money on its military rather than spending it on infrastructure.
One spin-off for the local economy was that Xi’s 200-strong delegation required 100 drivers, which usually cost 10,000 Swiss francs for a week.
Is Sadiq the new Boris?
Sadiq Khan packed a lot into just 20 hours at Davos this year. When he wasn’t telling bank chiefs and politicians that London is open for business, he was racing from TV camera to microphone to liveblog to warn that a hard Brexit would rip Britain apart.
Labour hasn’t had a lot to cheer about recently, but winning the mayoralty was one bright spot. Judging by UK businesses’ reaction to Khan this week, London chose the right man to fight its corner through the Brexit negotiations. He wouldn’t be the first politician to use City Hall – and Davos – as a stepping stone for bigger things.
