Graeme Wearden in Davos 

Davos 2017: Joe Biden criticises Russia; Al Gore on climate change – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the second day of the World Economic Forum in Davos
  
  

Joe Biden tells Davos: top 1% must do more

The official Davos sessions are now over for the day, although there are plenty of working dinners taking place (most off the record, alas).

In the hall, it’s Dalian Night - with trays of delicious Chinese food* for the throng, washed down with wine or Tsingtao beer.

*stir-fried beef, cabbage and celery, oodles of noodles, with Lychees and Tapioka-coconut pudding and mango to follow.

So that’s all from us for today, unless any major news breaks out. Back tomorrow for Theresa May’s special address to Davos, and a lot more.... GW

It wouldn’t be Davos without a dose of eurozone angst; and Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan, has provided it.

Dimon told Bloomberg TV tonight that the euro area could break up unless politicians address the populist anger that has built up.

He said:

“What went wrong is going wrong for everybody, not just going wrong for Britain, but in some ways it looks like they’re kind of doubling down.

[Unless leaders address underlying concerns] you’re going to have the same political things about immigration, the laws of the country, how much power goes to Brussels.”

Updated

The United States may flip at the end of this week from being a climate leader, to being the leading climate change denier, says Thomas Friedman, the author chairing the climate change session.

How will Trump’s election, and the changes in Europe, affect the climate agenda?

Norway’s prime minister, Erna Solberg, is optimistic that Brexit won’t change the climate agenda

I believe the Brits are going to continue being active on this, and that my sister party the Conservatives will hold firm to an agenda against emissions.

But the United States could be a different story once Trump is in charge.

The Paris Agreement is in place, it’s a long process to get out of it.

But of course, not implementing it is a possibility for a new administration.

The bottom line is that those who believe in the climate change fight must keep putting the effort in, Solberg continues.

People who continue to deny will fall back, and lose out in the future.

And we shouldn’t forget that America has never been in the front line of the fight against climate change.

As Friedman wryly points out, it’s a little worrying that there are Neo-nazi parties in Europe who believe in climate change, while one of America’s two major political parties doesn’t.

Gore: Most people understand climate change issues now

Former US vice-president Al Gore is speaking about climate change now, saying there are only three questions remaining on the climate crisis:

  • Must we change?
  • Can we change?
  • Will we change?

Gore than takes a swipe at Donald Trump’s administration, saying:

On the first question, must we change, most people in the world are now convinced; but we are reminded by some recent elections and appointments that not everyone is there.

It’s just been confirmed that 2016 was the hottest year in recorded history, Gore continues, for the third year running.

And he adds that the public are seeing the consequences:

Every night on the television news now is like a nature hike through the Book of Revelations. People are connecting the dots and coming to the realisation that the answer to that first question is yes.

On ‘can we change?’, Gore says the cost of renewable energy is coming down as dramatically as computer chips.

And on ‘will we change?’, Gore says the Paris Agreement is “the most inspiring and greatest accomplishment since the whole negotiating process began”.

It has sent a signal to business, individuals, civil society - that signal has been received and had a dramatic change.

Updated

FTSE 100 edges higher as pound slips back

The link between the pound and the FTSE 100 continues to hold. A dip in sterling - partly on profit taking after Tuesday’s gains in the wake of UK prime minister Theresa May’s Brexit speech - has given a lift to the leading index.

The FTSE 100 - which is full of overseas earners who benefit when the pound is weaker - closed up 27.23 points or 0.38% at 7247.61. The pound is currently down 0.8% against the dollar at $1.2304 and 0.5% lower against the euro at €1.1521. Jasper Lawler, senior market analyst at London Capital Group, said:

Trading on the FTSE was muted the day after suffering its biggest loss in six months. The British pound, drifting lower in a correction of its biggest daily gain since 2008, helped the UK equity benchmark to modest gains.

We view the move in the British pound following Prime Minister’s speech as a game-changer and as such don’t anticipate a near-term resumption of the record winning streak for the FTSE 100. UK multinationals, like Burberry, still stand to benefit from a weak pound. The shift in sentiment in the pound means that gains could now be more concentrated in specific companies and industries, rather than the entire UK stock market.

In Europe, Germany’s Dax added 0.51% to 11,599.39 while France’s Cac has closed 0.13% higher at 4853.40.

On Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently 20 points or 0.1% lower.

Updated

Just 21% of delegates at WEF this year are female, despite years of pressure (companies can send an extra delegate as long as one member of the party is a woman).

IMF chief Christine Lagarde has highlighted the scale of the problem.

Liam Fox in Davos on free trade push

We just ran into Liam Fox, the UK’s secretary of state for international trade, as he arrived at WEF.

Fox says he’s at Davos make the the case for free trade, and make sure that global markets don’t “silt up”.

He’s also here to support Theresa May, who gives a special address to Davos on Thursday morning.

Sitting alongside Pierre Moscovici, economist Joseph Stiglitz says that if Europe can’t build the institutions to make the euro work it should admit that it has failed.

Unless there is such a mechanism, he says, Europe should “face reality, say this has been an interesting experiment but currencies come and go.”

Stiglitz says Europe should not give up on integration, but should simply go about it in a different way.

The euro, he says, has “undermined solidarity”.

Updated

The answer to Europe’s problems is to have more Europe, not less, Moscovici adds (isn’t it always?!).

“We need more convergence, more policy tools, a budget and a minster of finance for the EU. We must invest more.”

Updated

Moscovici: Europeans are angry

Pierre Moscovici, the EU commissioner for the economy, is speaking at a session on The European Disunion.

He admits that people are not happy.

“People suffer from too weak growth, too high unemployment and too much debt. There’s economic anger and cultural anger.”

But he insists that the “EU is solid and a unique model”.

The three things Europe needs are economic efficiency, to protect its citizens, and to be more democratic and accountability.

Standing: Basic income's time has come

Guy Standing, professor at the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) <corrected> has been telling Davos that the time has come for a universal income for all citizens.

Standing says he has been making the case for a basic income to be paid to everyone regardless of whether they are rich or poor for many years but the idea has recently started to get attention because of the fears of job losses from automation.

“A basic income is not a panacea but it is part of the new redistribution we should be building for the 21st Century.”

Standing says there are three arguments for a basic income: social justice, freeing people from those wielding arbitrary power, and the provision of basic security.He says a basic income is easily affordable and could be paid for by taking the proceeds of “rentier capitalism.

“The returns to property and intellectual property and natural resources are going to a minority and we must do something about that.”

Standing bemoans the fact that Britain did not use its oil revenues during the North Sea boom to set up a sovereign wealth fund.

“Had Britain set up a sovereign wealth fund, as Norway did, it could be paying out more than a basic income”, he said.

Updated

Fighting inequality with Pokémon Go

In one of those ‘only at Davos’ moments, 17 Pokémon Go “Pokéstops” have been set up around the ski resort to (possibly) raise awareness of inequality.

It’s the brainchild of film director Richard Curtis’s development agency, called Project Everyone. Stops include worthy causes like “Zero Hunger” and “Good Health.”

According to Business Insider, Olympic medal-winning sprinter Michael Johnson and celebrity chef Jamie Oliver have been spotted playing the game. Curtis is hoping that others follow suit, saying:

“I’m hoping a surprising number might think it is quite an amusing thing to do. I’ve noticed the Davos audience are quite willing to laugh at even quite weak jokes, because they’re looking for entertainment!”

Just be careful on those icy pavements...

US inflation rises in line with forecasts

Away from Davos for a moment once more, and US consumer prices rose in December, up 2.1% year on year mainly due to higher fuel prices as crude recovered more ground from its recent lows.

That was the biggest year on year gain since the middle of 2014 and rose from a figure of 1.7% in November, although it was in line with analysts’ expectations.

The month on month figure showed a rise of 0.3% in the consumer price index, compared to 0.2% in November.

With price pressures increasing - especially if Donald Trump follows through with his promises to boost spending - the chances of a US rate hike are also rising. When the Federal Reserve increased rates in December, it predicted three more rises this year.

James Knightley, senior economist at ING Bank, said:

Both headline and core inflation are rising faster than 2% year on year, helping to build the case for further Fed rate hikes.

US consumer price inflation came in exactly in line for December with the headline rate rising 0.3% month on month leading to an annual inflation rate of 2.1% versus 1.7% in November. The core (ex food and energy) rose 0.2% month on month leaving the annual rate at 2.2% versus 2.1% previously. This is the first time that both headline and core US inflation is rising at 2% or more since the second quarter of 2014.

Fuel prices were the main culprit with energy prices rising 1.5% month on month and transportation costs increasing 1% month on month. Most other components rose 0.2% or 0.3% but there was some softness in food (flat on the month) and apparel (-0.7% month on month).

With headline inflation likely to move up towards 2.5% in the second half of the year and President Trump promising pro-growth and pro-job policies in what already is a fairly strong story, it means further Federal Reserve rate hikes are not far away. We expect the next one in March with a further move higher in the third quarter of 2017.

Updated

German defence minister: Europe needs to boost defence spending

Europe needs to spend more on defence to protect the Transatlantic Alliance, says Germany’s defence minister.

Ursula von der Leyen told a panel that:

Europe has to take a fair share of the burden. It’s not at that point that now, so we have to invest more in defence.

We want a strong European pillar within Nato, she continues, and the ability to tackle more problems in Africa.

Nato’s future bas been cast into doubt by Donald Trump; von der Leyen see a bright future, though.

I’m very confident that this wonderful and precious friendship will last long.

Von der Leyen says the Alliance between the US and Europe goes beyond military issues; it is based on a long period of friendship and trust, and shared values:

We are fighting for something — for democracy, for the open society, the rule of law.

Frederick Pempe, CEO of The Atlantic Council, agrees, saying that he’s caution against seeing the ‘death knell’ of the Transatlantic Alliance.

Currently, the US spends $600bn per year on military spending, while European countries spend $300bn.

Updated

Facebook’s Sheryl Sandberg is also on this panel about ‘positive narratives’.

She explains how it’s important that people have a ‘common understanding’ of the past, to help create a shared identity.

That’s not helped, of course, by the flood of fake news and online misinformation we’ve seen recently on places like, well, Facebook.....

Updated

If you look at the history of mankind, you see that societal change and progress is a messy thing, Meg Whitman continues.

Her message to leaders at Davos is to “be the change you want to create”.

Sometimes these problems are so overwhelming that if you carve out something that matters to you, that you can make a big difference to, that can push the ball down the field.

Technology has pulled 100s of millions of people out of poverty, it has connected a lot of people, it has modernised agriculture and medicine.

But it’s also creating economic dislocation, the HP boss continues.

It’s up to leaders in this room, particularly in the technology field, to think ‘how do we help manage the transition of people who have been disrupted by robotics or automation’ -- which by the way is a far bigger cause of job losses in the US than economic globalisation.

That includes retraining workforces, pooling hiring across companies, to create opportunities for people where they are.

HP's Whitman: Chickens have come home to roost

Despite the gloom in the global economy, is there a ‘positive narrative’ out there?

On a panel session in the main hall (livefeed here), documentary maker Sharmeen Obaid- Chinoy says technology is giving people more control.

People want to take ownership of their stories, especially young people.

There are a lot of anxieties. Violence against women in many parts of the world has gone up, but so has access to technology and women are now more aware of their rights.

Young people are now beginning to break free. Their anxieties focus on if they’ll have the same opportunities as their grandparents. Will they be told what do by the leaders in their countries, or will they break through?

I see less anxiety in the places I work, and more hope.

Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, says that there needs to be a better discussion about the impact that technology has on jobs.

Meg Whitman of HP is blunter, saying that “some of the chickens have come home to roost”.

That includes:

  • Declining trust in institutions
  • Economic dislocation leading to the refugee crisis
  • Economic dislocation caused by technology.

And technology will only have a bigger impact, she warns, as AI, robotics and 3D printing all develop.

So “we need to create a new narrative”, Whitman adds, based on the right thing for the economy, and giving more hope to people who have been dislocated by technology.

Updated

Here’s a video clip of Joe Biden telling the global elite at Davos to pull their weight.

Joe Biden tells Davos: top 1% must do more

CA boss: Education, not higher tax, will solve economic challenges

Mike Gregoire, the chief executive of software giant CA Technologies, has criticised the idea that simply taxing the 1% richest more will solve our economic problems.

Speaking to me at Davos, he says the key is to invest more in science, technology, engineering and mathematics skills, to help people in the new economy (a theme Joe Biden touched on in his speech too).

Gregoire says:

The lack of both business and governments, and I say both, focusing on retraining people in STEM education for the jobs of the future, rather than trying to protect a job of the past, needs a lot more work.

The notion of this 1% - it’s a very convenient argument. The math doesn’t work.

If you want to talk about taxpayers - I’m a 60% taxpayer, and my company is a 30% taxpayer. If you charge every company and every person, you can’t tax them enough that it would make a difference if you haven’t attacked the fundamental problem.

The fundamental problem is that the economy is changing, and the value curve is changing, and the skill sets are changing, and that’s what we should focus our attention on.

Gregoire adds that modern manufacturing is much cleaner than in the past, has fewer people and it’s highly automated - and that automation will increase.

So what are you doing to prepare people for that economy, rather than the economy of the past?

CA supports several organisations that promote STEM skills, including Tech Girls Rock. Gregoire is also a board member of Npower, which helps minorities develop the skills to get a tech job.

Gregoire explains why this is important:

We’re talking about a whole generation of folks who could add value to our economy, and they just don’t have the skills because they haven’t been trained to be able to participate.

That’s something we can all help lean into.

Updated

Here’s foreign policy expert David Rothkopf on Biden’s farewell speech.

While Joe Biden was criticising Russia, his predecessor Al Gore was speaking at the Davos Arctic Camp - set up by climate scientists to focus attention on global warning.

We should hear more from Gore later today (he’s on a climate panel at 6pm Davos time)

Here’s our economics editor Larry Elliott on today’s top-level panel on the middle class crisis.

The head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, has called for urgent action to tackle a middle-class crisis as she warned that inequality, distrust and a lack of hope were fuelling growing political populism.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Lagarde said she had first highlighted the dangers of rising inequality four years ago but had been ignored. “I hope people will listen now,” she said.

Lagarde said the gulf between rich and poor was evident from an Oxfam report showing that eight billionaires own the same amount of wealth as the poorest half of the world’s population – 3.6 billion people.

“With lower growth, more inequality and much more transparency, you have the good ingredients for a crisis of the middle classes in the advanced economies,” she said.

Here’s the full story:

Away from Davos briefly and some more reaction to the UK jobs numbers.

Some analysts, while acknowleding the latest figures are generally positive, wonder if the momentum can continue. Nina Skero, managing economist at the Centre for Economics and Business Research, said:

Given the low unemployment rate and still modest, but accelerating wage growth it may be difficult to think of the labour market as anything but robust. However, other indicators suggest that a labour market softening may not be far off. The latest employment figures saw a decline of 9,000 persons compared to the June to August period. Correspondingly, the proportion of people in work decreased by 0.1 percentage points compared to June to August 2016 and now stands at 74.5%.

The Claimant Count statistics, which are considered experimental by the ONS but are the most timely, also suggest that the labour market may be losing some steam. In December 2016, the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits declined by 10,100 compared to November 2016 but was 26,900 higher than in December 2015.

With the economy set for a slowdown in 2017 and 2018, many firms will be more reluctant to hire. A worst case scenario could even see some businesses lay off existing staff. For instance, many companies that rely on imports find themselves in a tricky situation given that a weaker pound has increased their production costs but they are unable to raise prices drastically due to fear of losing market share. One option for such firms will be to cut down on spending by reducing head counts.

On the bright side, although the labour market may soften in the coming year it is starting its marginal decline from a place of strength. While we expect the unemployment rate to increase from current levels in 2017, it will remain below rates seen for much of 2015 and 2014. The real risk lies within wage growth which despite the acceleration in the most recent data has been unimpressive in the post-crisis period and now stands to be overtaken by inflation.

Sam Hill, senior UK economist at RBC Europe, said:

The main headlines from the UK labour market report continued the recent run of relatively optimistic news on the state of the economy. The unemployment rate held at 4.8%, the fall in the level of employment of 9k 3m/3m was smaller than the 35k decrease expected and average earnings growth picked up to 2.8% 3m/y (inc. bonuses), the strongest since September 2015.

Private sector average earnings growth is now above 3% 3m/y and above 4% 3m/y in the retail/restaurant sector, each for the first time since Q3 2015. The relative weakness in terms of private sector pay is the financial and business service sector where growth is just 1.9% 3m/y. As with the inflation data yesterday, this development won’t ease the MPC’s concerns about the anticipated period of above-target CPI.

In our assessment there is a very good chance that unemployment rises to 4.9% next month, but the more concerning element of the report is the news on total hours worked (but also note the highest number of redundancies at 123k since Q1 2014). In the three months to November 2016 total hours worked fell 1.2mn compared to the three months to August. This comprises both the modest fall in the level of employment as well as a reduction in average hours worked to 31.9/wk...

As we flagged recently, the near-term risk to our 1.2% 2017 GDP forecast is that the headwinds we have identified don’t materialise as quickly as expected at the start of the year, with survey evidence on the outlook remaining impressive at the end of 2016. That is likely to lead the Bank of England to revise up its GDP forecast at the February Inflation Report but the scale of any such optimistic revisions should be tempered given the context of less encouraging news on the quantity of labour being used in the economy.

Sadiq Khan to fight 'hard Brexit' at Davos

London mayor Sadiq Khan is in Davos today, as part of his push to protect the capital, and its financial centre, from harm from Britain’s exit from the EU.

He’s holding various meeting, and will also address business leaders tonight at a Morgan Stanley dinner.

According to his office, he will say:

“Securing privileged access to the single market must be the top priority for the negotiations. It’s critical for London. Nothing else will do. It can’t be brushed aside – as it was yesterday.

“A hard-line approach to Brexit ……. could rip Britain apart.

“And if we continue on this path - towards a ‘Hard Brexit’ – we risk having to explain to future generations why we knowingly put their economy, their prosperity and their place on the world stage in such peril.”

Updated

Biden left the stage to a rousing standing ovation - but I suspect it won’t be last time we see him at Davos:

The FT’s Katie Martin has a good take on Joe Biden’s sting criticism of Russia, in his final speech as vice-president.

US vice president Joe Biden has pointed the finger of blame specifically at Russia for seeking to “whittle away at the edges of the European project.”

The country, he said, is “testing the fault lines between western nations.”

Mr Biden described himself as a committed supporter of globalisation, while issuing a plea to defend the “liberal international order” and the close ties between the US and Europe that he describes as key to securing prosperity and security.

“Impulses to hunker down, to build walls, are precisely the wrong answer,” he said.

Here’s the full story:

Biden: US and Europe must defend democratic values

Biden ends his final speech as US vice-president with a rousing call for Europe and the US to “lead the fight” to defend the values that created today’s world.

That means:

A fight for democracy, a fight to reject isolationism and protectionism”.

Quite a way to bow out of office.

Biden: Russia is stirring things up

Biden then turns to geopolitics, and singles out Russia.

Under president Putin, Russia has been testing the fault lines in other nations, says Biden. It is trying to return to a world of ‘spheres of influences’, even sending ‘little green men’ across borders to stir up separatism in Ukraine.

And he insists that Nato’s ‘sacred’ commitment to defend each other from attacks can never be questioned (a nudge towards Donald Trump, who has suggested the alliance is obsolete)

Updated

Biden: Richest 1% aren't pulling their weight

Looking into his audience of global leaders in Davos, Biden says a “progressive tax system” where everyone pays a fair share will help address the crisis.

And he appeals to their better nature, saying:

I told a group of you last night - the top 1%’s not carrying their weight

You’re not bad guys, you’re good guys.

If you speak to the public and ask if they’d rather have free college education, or a raise - they’d take the free college education, Biden continues.

Biden also says that people also need “continuing education” through their lives to help them adjust to technology change, and we must ensure basic protections for workers.

Updated

Biden: Must address the economic trends fuelling social unrest

Millions of people around the world have benefitted from globalisation and new technology, Biden continues.

But in other places, factories are closing and jobs are being lost.

Taken together, these forces are effectively hollowing out the middle-class, the traditional engine of economic growth and social stability in Western nations.

We cannot undo the changes that technology has wrought in our world, nor should we try.

But we can and we must take action to mitigate the economic trends that are stoking unrest in so many advanced economies and undermining people’s basic sense of dignity.

Biden is speaking about how the liberal world order pioneered by the US and Europe after world war 2 delivered unprecedented growth and security; but it is now at threat.

He explains how his father had explained that a job was about more than just a pay cheque; it was also about self respect and worth.

And he talks about how workers are losing out:

In my country, there used to be a basic bargain since the mid-20th century, agreed by both parties....

If you contributed to the success of the enterprise that you were engaged, you got to share the success and the profits.

Biden: Palpable uncertainty about the world today

Biden begins by telling that there is “palpable uncertainty about the state of the world.”

And he doesn’t mean the transfer of power in America this week.

In two days there will be a new president of the United States...

<boo> calls out one delegate.

No, Biden replies.

The challenges we face, and the choices we must make as an international community doesn’t hinge exclusively on Washington’s leadership.

Whether we reinforce the ties that bind us or whether we unravel under the current pressure. These choices must be made by very single nation.

Watch Joe Biden address Davos

Davos delegates have flooding into the main hall here to watch the set-piece event of the morning, vice-president Joe Biden’s final speech in office.

Biden gets a warm, standing ovation as he arrives on stage.

And he gets a second round of applause as he introduces himself as “vice-president for the next 48 hours, and after that I’ll be able to say what I really think”.

You can watch it live here:

UK employment edges lower, wages growth beats expectations

The number of people in work in the UK dipped slightly in the three months to November compared to the previous quarter, but average weekly earnings came in higher than expected and the claimant count for December fell by more than forecast.

The jobless rate for the three months held at an 11 year low of 4.8%, in line with forecasts, and unemployment fell from 1.65m to 1.6m. But the number of people in work fell by 9,000 to just over 31.8m. This is the second report in a row to show a dip in the number of people in work, perhaps suggesting a slight degree of reluctance among employers in the wake of the Brexit vote.

Average weekly earnings including bonuses rose from 2.6% to 2.8% compared to expectations of a figure of 2.6%. The number of people claiming unemployment benefits fell by 10,100 in December after rising by 1,300 in the previous month. Analysts had expected a rise of 5,000 in the claimant figures.

Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at ThinkMarkets UK, said:

We had another set of promising economic data today which has shown that average earnings have increased and unemployment claims have fallen. It was important that the average earning index picks up pace to keep up with inflation.

The inflation data released earlier has already brought headache for the MPC members and it is not a good news for consumers because their purchase power is going to see a dramatic impact. Households will have to dig deeper in their pockets and if their earnings do not match inflation, we have a problem.

Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce, said:

Overall, with employment levels still close to record levels and unemployment continuing to fall, the latest indicators confirm that the UK jobs market remains a major bright spot for the UK economy.

While labour market conditions could soften over the next year as economic growth slows, the high degree of flexibility in the jobs market will help limit the extent of any uptick in unemployment.

Although there was a welcome pick-up in average earnings growth, the gap between wage and price growth is narrowing. If this continues as we expect, real household incomes will be squeezed further, stifling consumer spending, which is a key driver of UK economic growth.

Updated

Elsewhere in Davos, delegates have been discussing the gender divide, and how fighting stereotypes can fix it:

Do any of the global elite do their own laundry, I wonder...

Updated

Another takeaway from that session:

Italian finance minister Pier Carlo Padoan concludes the session on the middle class crisis with a three-point plan.

1) We need to take populists seriously, he argues, and not just paint them as the bad guys. Often they are the good guys, with genuine concerns about the future.

2) There is no “silver bullet” or short cut to fixing the economic problems fuelling populism. The solutions are complicated

3) Policymakers must deliver a vision of a better future; something that is lacking in Europe right now.

Updated

Lagarde insists there is still time for “courageous” politicians to reconnect with the people.

They must create policies that address concerns such, as what future their children face and what safety net will be in place.

There is hope, and I don’t think we should be resigned to taking the situation as it is.

Lagarde argues that globalisation needs to take “a new turn”, and we need more analytical work how jobs are being lost to new technologies.

She says:

To turn our back to globalisation, to helping development, is entirely the wrong approach.

She also cites Oxfam’s warning that the 8th richest people own as much wealth as the poorest half of the population.

More from Larry Summers:

Dalio: Globalisation may be ending

Hedge fund chief Ray Dalio warns that the age of globalisation may be over, as provincialism and nationalism rise.

Larry Summers, though, points out that Dalio won’t suffer -- he’ll manage to position himself in the markets whatever happens.

The people who will be the victims of populist policies are the lower income and middle class people in whose name the policy is offered.

Italy’s finance minister points out that many Europeans blame the leaders in Brussels, or the central bankers in Frankfurt, for the situation today.

Summers: Crisis isn't all about envy

Larry Summers, though, disputes whether concerns over income inequality really explain the crisis in the middle classes.

The US has just elected the world’s biggest example of conspicuous consumption, he says

That is a bizarre manifestation of a concern over inequality.

Many people think “too much is being done for the poor, rather than that too little is being done for the poor”.

Summers argues that the surge in support for populism is due to issues like “national unity and strength”, not just envy over wealth.

Updated

Lagarde: Need more redistribution

Lagarde reveals that she felt a backlash from economists, including in the IMF, after she warned about rising inequality in 2013.

Policymakers need to get the signal now, and really think about how to address the public discontent.

That means fiscal and structural reforms, and effective monetary policies, but it also includes redistributing wealth better, the IMF chief says:

It needs to be granular, it needs to be regional, it needs to be focused on what will people get out of it.

It probably includes more redistibution than we have in place at the moment.

Updated

Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio says populism is now the biggest issue in the global economy, overtaking central banks.

Harvard professor Larry Summers says that populism is on the rise because many people in the middle classes of advanced economies feel their governments aren’t fighting for them.

They feel the governments are fighting for people in developing countries, for people who have recently come into their countries, for minority groups who used to suffer discrimination, but not the people “in the centre of the country”.

They feel they are not being heard, and they’ve expressed that in the Brexit vote, the Italian referendum and in the US election.

Updated

Italian finance minister Pier Carlo Padoan agrees with Christine Lagarde that the middle classes are in crisis.

It is hard to find a country where there isn’t dissatisfaction with the situation today, says Padoan.

He cites changes in wealth and income distribution - and about people’s expectations.

The middle class is disillusion about the future, disappointed about the figure of their children, and unhappy about the benefits they’re receiving from the state.

The session gets under way - here’s a live feed:

Christine Lagarde speaks first, and agrees that the middle classes in advanced economies are now in crisis.

The middle class is both growing and shrinking, she points out.. Globally, it’s grown from 7% of the global population to 13%. But in America, it’s shrunk from 60-ish% to 50-ish% -- with more money accumulating at the top.

That is combined with signs of lack of trust, lack of hope, disenchantment with the vision of the future.

With lower growth, more inequality and much more transparency, you have the good ingredients for a crisis of the middle classes in the advanced economies.

Updated

Look whose in town

Speaking of things that make people angry...

Here’s the pitch for the first big session of the morning:

Squeezed and Angry: How to Fix the Middle-Class Crisis

The middle class is squeezed and aggrieved.

Once the lynchpin of developed economies, it’s now threatened by job losses and stagnant wages, paving the way for the rise of populism. In emerging markets, middle class growth rates are stalling. Have middle class problems been forgotten?

What can be done?

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, Italian Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan and Founder, Chairman and Co-CIO of Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, discuss what’s needed to restore growth in the middle class and confidence in the future.

Davos agenda: Populism, climate change, Europe

Good morning from Davos, where the second day of the World Economic Forum is getting underway.

Today, some of the world’s richest and most powerful people will be discussing why the rest of the population are increasingly angry and disillusioned with the state of the world.

The managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, will ponder how to fix the middle class crisis, alongside Italian finance minister Pier Carlo Padoan and Harvard professor Larry Summers.

Plus, (this is Davos after all) a billionaire! Ray Dalio, founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, will also chip in.

Hopefully we’ll get some decent ideas on how to boost employment prospects and income growth.

After yesterday’s focus on globalisation, potential trade wars and president Trump, today will also focus on climate change.

A group of scientists has set up an Arctic base camp in Davos, to highlight the dangers of climate change and the warming ice caps. And we salute them for sleeping out in tents last night -- when it was minus 16 degrees C.

Europe is also on the agenda, with panel sessions on Brexit, the European Union, and the Transatlantic Alliance.

There’s also going to be a scrum to see Joe Biden address delegates, on his final overseas trip as vice-president.

Here’s some of the key events today:

  • 9am Davos time/8am GMT: Panel: How to fix the middle-class crisis
  • 10am/9am GMT: Arctic basecamp press conference
  • 10.30am/9.30am GMT: Special address by Joe Biden
  • 1.45pm/12.45pm GMT: Is the Transatlantic Alliance at a tipping point?
  • 2.45pm/1.45pm Fixing European disunion
  • 5pm/4pm GMT: How to accelerate the fight against climate change, with Al Gore

Updated

 

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