Brexit wasn’t a ‘Michael Fish moment’: but economics does need to change

The Bank of England’s Andy Haldane is right to point to problems in economists’ training. But his capitulation to the critics went too far
  
  

Andy Haldane said the economics had learned the lessons of the Michael Fish debacle in 2008.
Andy Haldane said economics had learned lessons from the Michael Fish debacle in 2008. Illustration: David Simonds

When the Bank of England looks around in a couple of years to replace Mark Carney as governor, Andy Haldane will need to work hard to win over the selection panel. The central bank’s chief economist can’t help attracting publicity, and not always in a good way.

Last week he was in hot water following his capitulation to the bullying Brexiters and their claim that experts were dunces. He said it was “a fair cop” in answer to critics who accuse his profession of missing the financial crisis and misjudging the impact of the Brexit vote.

The Bank certainly did fail to highlight the oncoming juggernaut of debt that overwhelmed the west in 2008. And now, post-Brexit, all is calm in the British economy where Threadneedle Street said there would be turmoil. As for a recession sometime soon, which the Treasury said was a possibility, there is not a sliver of evidence. If anything, the economy is one of the fastest growing in the developed world.

These specific errors call for an apology. Experts are under the spotlight now and need to examine their conduct, especially when they become partial and are undone by facts they sweep under the carpet or ignore.

But Haldane went further than just apologising for discrete mistakes. And worse, he made some bizarre comparisons that will make those concerned about the demise of experts think he is part of the problem.

He said that the 2008 crash was economic forecasting’s “Michael Fish moment”, referring to the BBC weatherman’s infamous dismissal of hurricane warnings in 1987 that were soon proved all too accurate across southern England.

He carried the analogy through to the Met Office’s solution, which was to include more data, more quickly, into its forecasting system. This brought about a huge improvement in weather predictions that economists could copy, claimed Haldane. Yet it is not clear why more data would make a difference when it was institutional myopia that was behind the Bank’s embarrassing ignorance of an unstable financial system in 2008.

Furthermore, Haldane said the forecasts of doom and gloom ahead of the Brexit vote were also wrong, even though the Bank was right about the fall in sterling and will be proved right about its limited impact on exports and significant impact on inflation, leading to slowing growth. It was only wrong about the strength of consumer borrowing, which was partly due to a misreading of the ultra-low loan rates on offer that make spending on credit so seductive.

Haldane’s Bank also failed to tell politicians, the City and the public that if there were a post-referendum panic, it would probably cut interest rates again and boost its stimulus package. The fact that it pulled the trigger on both these measures when the situation looked sticky is one reason consumer confidence has bounced back and the economy has recovered. He didn’t mention that either.

And he didn’t emphasise the inherent uncertainty surrounding economic forecasts. For instance, exports could be higher than expected, and the economy grow faster this year than the widely forecast 1%, as a result of the promised spending spree by Donald Trump when he gets into the Oval Office. All boats will float on a tide of US munificence that could scarcely have been foreseen last year, when the polls put Trump well behind Clinton.

Where Haldane hit the spot was in his critique of economics teaching. It is too narrow, it relies on equations to explain a world where many things don’t add up, and it lacks historical perspective.

Maybe universities can rescue the situation by developing a fresh cohort of economists with a broader and more grounded outlook. So Haldane may have been too harsh on his profession: but he is right that change is needed.

Is Ashley in need of anger management?

Was Mike Ashley’s new year resolution to stop being so conciliatory? That quality hasn’t often been attached to Sports Direct’s founder, chief executive and 55% shareholder but, by his standards, 2016 was a year of peace, love and reconciliation.

He turned up to Iain Wright’s business select committee, confounding some expectations. He apologised for “serious shortcomings” in working practices in the Shirebrook warehouse and launched a governance review. He pledged to raise standards, to offer all retail staff guaranteed hours instead of zero-hours contracts and that an elected workers’ representative would join the board. Ashley even held an open day at Shirebrook in September for all to witness the dawn of Sports Direct’s new “open and compliant” era.

And now? In the first week of 2017, Ashley performed three U-turns in one day. The first was merely odd: Sports Direct will resume share buybacks after abandoning them only a month ago. But the other two announcements suggested the old belligerence is back.

Ashley said he had asked chairman Keith Hellawell to reconsider his pledge to resign if outside shareholders vote against his reappointment next September. That was a big “up yours” to those who had just voted against Hellawell for a second time.

Then Ashley said the board would reconsider “all options” in its governance review “in view of continuing frustrations”. Whose frustrations? Outside investors’ or his? It wasn’t clear, but one option for the review is to abandon the idea of appointing an independent figure to lead it. Review arrangements are under discussion with the Investor Forum, representing City fund managers, and dialogue was described as “constructive” before Christmas. But that was before the latest vote against Hellawell.

Ashley could be making a mistake. A bunker mentality helped push Sports Direct into last year’s crisis. A big sulk wouldn’t improve matters now. Governance reform is harder that it sounds. Sometimes it involves hearing judgments you may not like.

Still decking the halls

Christmas is over – but not for City bankers. They are about to find out the size of their annual bonuses. The US banks traditionally go first: JP Morgan and Bank of America report results – and the size of their bonus pools – this week, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to follow. All have sizable London operations. The European banks will follow suit a few weeks later.

Bankers insist that the bonus season is not what was it before the 2008 crisis. Then they got their payouts in lump sum cash amounts or, going back 20 years or so, in gold bars to take the sting out of taxes​. These days bonuses are partly paid in shares and spread over a number of years. Even so, the rewards are big. Data for 2015 shows the big four US banks handing €1m to almost 1,000 City workers. The rainmakers are also raking it in. Three employees at boutique Robey Warshaw shared £37m for their efforts advising on big takeovers. That’s all their Christmases at once.

 

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