David Blanchflower, professor of economics at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire, and former member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee (MPC) from June 2006 to May 2009

The UK economy is slowing, there is no doubt about it. The incoming data so far though are mixed as it is early days post the Brexit vote. The PMIs were quite strong, suggesting GDP growth isn’t set to slow sharply in the fourth quarter of 2016 but 2017 is likely a different matter. Retail sales were also pretty good. Despite the boost from the fall in sterling, Britain’s trade deficit with the rest of the world widened unexpectedly in September. Inflation surprised to the downside but major price rises look to be in the pipeline as factory gate prices increased 0.6% in October compared with an increase of 0.3% in September.

The UK claimant count rose by 10,000 in October, while average weekly earnings grew by £1 between April and September. XPertHR, the pay consultants, report that the median private-sector pay award stood at 2% in the year to 31 August 2016, unchanged from that recorded 12 months previously. Private sector employers are predicting a median 2% pay award in the year to 31 August 2017. The MPC thinks 3.75% is on the horizon shortly.

There is every probability that the Office for Budget Responsibility will suggest this week that the public finances are in a terrible mess due to the weakening outlook for the economy. There is some suggestion that there is little room for a fiscal boost to the economy. It is time to condemn austerity into the dustbin of history. It is the unnecessary hang-up with debts and deficits that has got us into this fine populist mess in the first place.

In a major macro error in 2010, George Osborne slashed £30bn from public investment. Now Philip Hammond looks set to respond to the slowing economy with a trifling £1.3bn on infrastructure and roads. To put this in context, the UK has 29,145 miles of main roads 2,173 miles of motorways and 213,750 miles of paved roads so that should cover the cost of filling in about one pothole a mile. Or put another way, it is equivalent to about a fifth of the cost of refurbishing the Houses of Parliament and Buckingham Palace.

Too little too late as ever. Oh dear.

Andrew Sentance, senior economic adviser at the consultancy PwC and former member of the Bank’s MPC from October 2006 to May 2011

The picture of the UK economy since the Brexit vote is that consumer spending and services activity are supporting growth and employment. We still don’t have any hard data on the investment side of the economy – but even when we do it may be several quarters before the impact of post-Brexit uncertainty shows up in the level of capital spending.

GDP held up in the third quarter better than expected and the early data for the current quarter – on retail sales and the purchasing managers’ survey of services activity – has been positive. The unemployment rate has continued to fall, though the rate of growth of new job creation appears to be slowing.

One surprise this month was a drop in the inflation rate, from 1% to 0.9%. But it is clear from the measure of input prices paid by manufacturers that a wave of inflation is coming through the pipeline driven by a weaker pound. We should therefore still expect to see inflation at around 3% or just below by the end of next year. That will squeeze real consumer spending growth, adding to the slowdown generated by uncertainty affecting investment plans.

PwC’s updated forecast is for GDP to rise by just 1.2% next year – about half the growth rate over the past 12 months. The EU referendum vote seems likely to create a longer-term drag on economic activity rather than a short sharp shock.

The chancellor should be focusing on long-term priorities in his autumn statement this week – relieving the pressure in the housing market by supporting supply, boosting transport investment, helping smaller firms, tax reform and investment in skills. Business should view an autumn statement focused on long-term priorities positively and this is the best way to support business confidence in the face of Brexit uncertainty.