We asked a panel of experts how a Donald Trump presidency could affect Australia, on everything from climate change policy to trade and regional security.
America’s place in Asia
Michael Fullilove (Lowy Institute executive director): “The big picture move would be that Donald Trump is in favour of retreating from the world, retreating from Asia.
“Once the US steps back from Asia, it becomes a much harder environment for Australia to operate and to have a rules-based order ... All we know is he has certain long-term views: that he’s allergic to alliances, he’s sympathetic to strong men like Vladimir Putin. His views have echoes of isolationism.”
Kim Beazley (former defence minister and Australian ambassador to US): “If he were to pursue his objectives internationally ... it will effectively suspend American leadership in global free trade and in the global order.
“Taken at face value, Donald Trump’s policies could induce crises in the US’s military relationship with two of Australia’s most important trading partners – Korea and Japan. He will discombobulate the pivot to Asia that has a south-east Asian focus that was Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama’s speciality.”
Anzus alliance and Australia’s relationship with US
Fullilove: “A Trump presidency would be a sobering result for many Australians - according to Lowy Institute polling Australians favoured Hillary Clinton over Trump by 7-1, 77% favoured Clinton 11% favoured Trump. Half of Australians wanted us to distance the country from the US if someone like Trump were elected.
“I don’t think it would affect the [Australian-New Zealand-US] alliance, the alliance has existed for 70 years and goes beyond personality of those at the summit, but a President Trump would stretch that.”
Peter Jennings (Australian Strategic Policy Institute executive director): “We’re going to have to do a lot more hard thinking than we have in recent years about how to sustain the effectiveness of the alliance.
“We’ve got a selling job to persuade him we’re paying our dues in terms of defence spending and militarily in the Middle East.”
Beazley: “[Trump’s election] is an enormous challenge, we are deeply embedded in the military intelligence side of the relationship [with the US].
“Our capacity to defend ourselves is attached to that, particularly the military equipment we buy from the US.”
Beazley told Sky News Australia does have one advantage under a Trump presidency: “We are a member of the only American alliance that the Trump people unreservedly approve of. So at least we’ve got a basis of a discussion with them.”
Gorana Grgic (lecturer at United States Studies Centre): “From what we’ve heard in Trump’s speeches so far, Australia has been conspicuously missing from all his discussions of allies that are asymmetrically benefiting from its US alliance.
“[Australian ambassador to the US] Joe Hockey has said he is reassured by people near Trump that Australia is in the good books, and I don’t think in terms of Anzus that we’re likely to see much change.”
Trade
Jennings: “Trump has said some very concerning things about lifting tariffs on Chinese goods.”
Beazley: “If Trump imposes the tariff he’s talking about with respect to China, it will cause close to an economic crisis. It’s no wonder the stock market has fallen [as Trump looks likely to win the electoral college].”
Professor John Langmore (assistant director research, security and political engagement in the Melbourne School of Government): “[Trump] is very sceptical of free trade, that’s not automatically a bad thing, but he may be much less open to trade with other countries, and that could well be challenging to exporting countries.”
Grgic: “If you go down the path of trade wars, it has huge implications for the foreign exchange and the stability of the currency”. Grgic suggested it might be harder to export to the US and cause an increase in consumer prices for imports if there is retaliation from China.
Regional security issues
Jennings: “So much is unknown but Trump has said the Japanese and South Koreans should do considerably more for their own defence, and he’s not concerned about whether that includes gaining nuclear weapons.
“I think a lot of that is pre-election campaign talk. We have to see how he will proceed in office but he is probably one of the least experienced American presidents in decades when it comes to foreign policy. Any perceived reduction of US interest in the region could lead to strategic situations including rapid nuclear arms proliferation.”
With respect to the South China Sea, Jennings said it wasn’t clear whether the US under Trump would push back more or less against China’s militarisation. “Australia can’t afford to be sitting on the sidelines, secure in the knowledge the US will undertake freedom of navigation exercises ... We’re going to have to be much more engaged ourselves.”
Langmore: “As Hillary repeatedly said, it’s pretty hard to imagine a man who can’t be trusted with Twitter in charge of the biggest store of nuclear weapons in the world.
“He doesn’t begin the task of being president with the capacity to be a peaceable leader of the most powerful country in the world in ways that would contribute to prosperity or security.”
Grgirc: “The US has been in the region since WWII, it has been insurer of stability by providing troops and guaranteeing it would step in should some key allies be attacked.
“If these sort of guarantees are withdrawn ... the logic of security dilemma comes into play. One country starts arming, it decreases the security of others and makes them more compelled to arm themselves. It’s a very perilous spiral which obviously subtracts from security in the region.”
Climate change
John Connor (Climate Institute chief executive): “There’s no doubt this will be an extremely serious blow, but not devastating.
“The Paris agreement is structured in such a way, now it is in force and with US ratification, so that Trump can’t technically remove the US from the agreement [immediately], so it won’t actually devastate the structure of the agreement.
“The checks and balances in the agreement, which may allow any country to go off on a bit of a frolic, has capacity to bring them back into the fold. That’s my most optimistic take on it.”
Langmore: “Trump is a climate change sceptic ... Australia will have to be a stronger advocate for responsible environmental policies. Of course there’ll be a large body of opinion supporting that in the US, many states will have responsible climate policies, but you can’t expect the US administration to lead on this issue.”
Grgic: “It hasn’t been mentioned once in presidential debates – that sends a signal about its priority or lack of priority, in both campaigns. If Trump does what he announced to China [on tariffs], a climate agreement enabled by cooperation with China will basically also fall down the drain. We would not be likely to see movement on this issue.”
What should Australia do?
Beazley: “There will be an expectation that we use the fact that we are the only alliance that the US [under Trump] unreservedly approves of ... to mitigate the worst effects of the directions Trump is prepared to head down.”
Jennings: “As a smaller ally we have to sell the alliance in Washington ... the prime minister should make an early effort to meet Trump.
“The responsibility is ours, the US will not be making Australia a high priority as an incoming [Trump] administration.”
Langmore: “Australia should both use its leverage to change US policies [on climate change] and also to reach out to other countries to improve multilateralism.”
