Andrew Sparrow 

Final aiport expansion vote won’t happen for at least another year, says No 10 – Politics live

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A passenger aircraft takes off at Heathrow. Number 10 has revealed that the final vote on aiport expansion will be put off for at least a year.
A passenger aircraft takes off at Heathrow. Number 10 has revealed that the final vote on aiport expansion will be put off for at least a year. Photograph: Daniel Leal-Olivas/AFP/Getty Images

Afternoon summary

  • The Institute for Fiscal Studies has said that 11.5m families set to lose an extra £100 a year from the government’s benefits freeze because of post-Brexit inflation. (See 1.19pm.)
  • Jeremy Corbyn has announced more appointments to his frontbench team nearly two weeks after starting the reshuffle. As the Press Association reports, Andy Slaughter and Steve Reed, who were among the 63 shadow ministers who walked out in June, have agreed to serve the Labour leader. Slaughter becomes shadow minister for housing and London while Reed becomes shadow civil society minister. Serving under chief whip Nick Brown to enforce party discipline are Thangam Debbonaire, Nick Smith, Chris Elmore, Karl Turner, Alan Campbell, Mark Tami, Jessica Morden, Judith Cummins, Vicky Foxcroft, Jeff Smith and Nic Dakin.
    Shadow international trade secretary Barry Gardiner is given additional responsibility for international climate change and Bill Esterson, shadow minister for business, energy and industrial strategy, also takes on the international trade brief.

That’s all from me for today.

Thanks for the comments.

Updated

Treasury abandons plan to let people sell their pension annuities

The government has made a second big announcement this afternoon. A key element of the coalition’s pension reforms has been abandoned, the Press Association reports.

Plans to allow people to be able to sell on their retirement annuities on have been scrapped by the government because consumers could not be guaranteed that they would get good value for money.

Due to be launched in April 2017, the planned changes would have freed up people to sell their annuity income if they want to, without tax restrictions that currently apply, as long as their annuity provider agreed.

But the Treasury said that after speaking to the industry, regulators and consumer groups, it had decided not to take forward the plans - saying it was not willing to allow a market to develop which could produce poor outcomes for consumers, such as receiving poor value for their annuity income and suffering higher costs.

Here is some more Twitter comment on the airports expansion letter released by Number 10.

From the Telegraph’s James Kirkup

From the Independent’s John Rentoul

From Sky’s Faisal Islam

Updated

Here is Sky’s Faisal Islam on the Number 10 letter about airport expansion.

Key airport expansion vote to be put off for at least another year, says No 10

Turning away from the child abuse inquiry hearing, my colleague Rowena Mason has just come back from the Number 10 lobby briefing. Amazingly, it turns out that the final Heathrow vote will not take place for at least another year.

Updated

David Winnick accuses Home Office of misleading committee

Winnick says that he thinks the committee has been treated in a “shabby way” and that it has been “misled”.

Q: It has been reported that Liz Sanderson, a special adviser to Theresa May when she was home secretary, knew about concerns about Goddard well before she resigned.

Sedwill says that the same report says he was told about these concerns. But he was not, he says. The report was wrong.

David Winnick, the Labour MP, goes next.

Q: Should we be satisfied with what Amber Rudd told us in September about why Goddard resigned?

Sedwill says Winnick asked Rudd about this in the Commons on Monday. Rudd said she was giving Goddard’s own reason for going.

Given Goddard rejects the allegations, we can only go on her own explanation when wanting to know why she resigned.

Q: When were your first made aware of the allegations of racism against Goddard?

Sedwill says he heard some of these allegations for the first time when he read them in the Times last week.

Q: What about the racism allegations?

Sedwill says he had not heard about those, formally or informally, before they were in the papers. The complaints he had heard about Goddard had been expressed in general terms.

He stresses that Goddard denies these allegations fiercely.

Ranil Jayawardena, a Conservative, goes next.

Q: Are you satisfied that Goddard was vetted properly?

Yes, says Sedwill. She went through a proper vetting process. The Home Office took references from the New Zealand judiciary. He points out that the home affairs committee also took evidence from her.

Q: Did you report to Theresa May on the meeting Drusilla Sharpling had with a Home Office director general in April?

Sedwill says he did not, because he was not aware of that. He says the point of that meeting was to provide an early warning that things were off track. But Sharpling said at the time that she wanted no action taken.

Q: But why wasn’t that reported upwards?

Sedwill says the information was provided in confidence. At that point the panel did not want any action taken. They were trying to resolve the problems.

Q: Was that a reasonable judgement?

Sedwill says that was a reasonable decision for the Home Office director general to take at the time.

The Labour MP Lisa Nandy has been tweeting about what has emerged from the hearing so far.

Q: Did you have regular discussions with the home secretary about the child abuse inquiry?

Sedwill says he had weekly bilateral meetings with Theresa May, when she was home secretary, as he does with Amber Rudd. They discussed child abuse and other issues. But he does not recall specifically discussing how the inquiry was going.

Q: John O’Brien, secretary to the inquiry, said it was separated from the Home Office by a “low brick wall”. What did you mean that?

Sedwill says Tim Loughton would have to ask O’Brien. He says as far as he was concerned, the Home Office had an arm’s length relationship with it.

Q: How many meetings did you have with Goddard?

Sedwill says he met her twice.

Sedwill says he did not hear of Goddard concerns until 29 July

Q: Are you saying you were never told of any concerns about Goddard?

Until 29 July, that is correct, says Sedwill.

He says Tim Loughton raised the prospect in an interview at the weekend that the Home Office might have picked up on these concerns unofficially.

But that was not the case, he says. It would have been wrong for the Home Office to have used back channels to find out what was happening in the inquiry, he says.

He says MPs would have objected if the Home Office had been monitoring the inquiry unofficially.

Updated

Mark Sedwill, Home Office permanent secretary, questioned by committee

Mark Sedwill, the Home Office permanent secretary, is giving evidence now.

Q: Amber Rudd, the home secretary, told us in September that Dame Lowell Goddard resigned because she was lonely. Why did Rudd not mention all the complaints about Goddard that led up to this.

Sedwill says that Rudd could only go on what Goddard said in her resignation letter.

Q: We have been told this afternoon that concerns were raised about Goddard in April?

Sedwill says he was not aware of that meeting. He only became aware of that recently. The meeting was with a Home Office director general who did not pass that information on, in accordance with the terms agreed at the time.

Frank and Sharpling say they have no concerns about the current chair.

(That’s fortunate. She is sitting in between them.)

Chuka Umanna goes next.

Q: Can you report if you do not the the confidence of victims’ groups?

Jay says there are many victim and survivor groups. They do not agree. She knows that some will not engage with it. She is sorry about that. But she thinks she has the support of many of these groups.

Sharpling says panel members are being invited to speak to victims’ groups. They are taking up these invitations.

Jay says the new approach she announced yesterday is designed to enable the inquiry to reach conclusions more quickly.

Tim Loughton is pressing on. From the TV coverage (which briefly had the sound turned down - Parliament TV does not broadcast protests at hearings like this) the man who interrupted the proceedings seems to have been ejected.

Updated

A member of the public sitting in the inquiry is interrupting.

Labour’s David Winnick goes next.

Q: You say you cannot give us any details about Ben Emmerson’s suspension. This is a public inquiry. Public money is being spent on it. Do you accept us to be happy not to know why Emmerson resigned?

Jay says in his resignation letter Emmerson said he was not the person to take forward the inquiry into the next stage.

Q: Aren’t we entitled to know led up to this?

Jay says the suggestion Emmerson left because of a disagreement with her was not true.

Jay says she has never in her life been accused of tolerating bullying or offensive behaviour.

Q: How many people have left the inquiry since it was set up?

Jay says she does not have the number. But she does not think the number is significant, or “above average”.

James Berry, a Conservative, goes next.

Q: Why was Ben Emmerson suspended as counsel to the inquiry?

Jay says she cannot comment on this. It is a confidential, personnel matter.

Q: Other counsel working for the inquiry have quit. Did any of them mention Emmerson in their resignation letters?

Jay says she cannot comment on that, for the same reason.

A member of the public at the back interrupts briefly, saying the public has been waiting for results too.

Nusrat Ghani, a Conservative, goes next.

Q: When will you finish the inquiry?

Jay says she hopes to get most of the work done by 2020. There will be an interim report by 2018. And there will be reports on particular aspects of the inquiry’s work as it is going along.

She says she will be able to say more about this when she has finished her review of how the inquiry is operating.

Q: Did other members of staff raise concerns about Goddard with members of the panel?

Sharpling says that is not a question she can answer.

Q: Is there anything else the inquiry needs?

Jay says she is glad McDonald asked this. It has been looking for premises in London for a hearing centre. She says it has been difficult, because it needs facilities where victims can speak out. But landlords have been very uncooperative. As soon as they hear it is for the abuse inquiry, they do not want to offer property.

Q: Has the government made available all the information it needs from the government?

Sharpling says she will not go into that, because that is part of the conduct of the inquiry.

The SNP MP Stuart McDonald goes next.

Q: Was there anything Goddard said that made her unfit of her role?

Jay says this is a reference the claims made in the press. She cannot comment on them. Employees are entitled to privacy, she says.

Lisa Nandy, the Labour MP who tabled an urgent question in the Commons yesterday, has written an article for the Guardian which we have just launched saying the full circumstances of Dame Lowell Goddard’s departure must be given.

Sharpling says it is the chair and the panel who are the controlling minds of this inquiry.

Jay says she agrees.

Jay says 20% of the inquiry staff are former Home Office officials.

Q: Can you understand why people think that this is under the control of the Home Office?

Jay says these people are doing these jobs because they are knowledgable about the issues.

Frank says it is normal for the secretary of an inquiry to come from its sponsoring department.

Umunna says in this case some survivors think the Home Office is to blame for what happened.

Labour’s Chuka Umunna goes next.

Q: Why did you go to the Home Office in April?

Sharpling says she does not indulge in gossip. She went to the Home Office because of concerns about the leadership of the inquiry.

Child sexual abuse inquiry brought in “facilitator” to help panel communicate with chair

Frank says a “facilitator” was brought in to help the panel get on with Goddard.

Q: Are you saying you needed a mediator?

Frank says it was a facilitator, not a mediator.

  • Child sexual abuse inquiry brought in “facilitator” to help inquiry panel communicate with inquiry chair.

Q: Why could you not just discuss things with her direct. You are all adults.

Sharpling says the panel often spoke to Goddard without a third party. But an outsider was brought in on one occasion. That is not unusual when groups want to improve communication, she says.

Labour’s David Winnick goes next.

Q: I’m not interested in gossip. But hasn’t the inquiry been an unhappy ship since it was launched last year.

Jay says she does not accept that.

My colleague Sandra Laville points out that Sharpling’s revelation about going to the Home Office in April with concerns about Goddard undermines the suggestion from the Home Office (in Amber Rudd’s statement to MPs on Monday) that concerns were only raised in July.

David Burrowes, a Conservative, is asking the questions now.

Q: What has been achieved under Goddard?

Jay says the inquiry has got 200 people to give evidence through its truth project initiative. And she says the literature review conducted by the inquiry was good. And there have been preliminary hearings.

Frank says the inquiry has put victims at the heart of what it does.

Q: Has that been worth £14.7m over the last year?

Frank says reducing the level of child abuse in the UK is not a choice. It is an imperative.

Updated

Drusilla Sharpling, another panel member who is giving evidence with Jay, says she does not want to indulge in discussions of character. But she says there were concerns about Goddard.

She says in April she reported her concerns about the leadership of the inquiry to the Home Office, with approval of the panel. She did not want her concerns shared. The panel wanted to manage the issue, she says.

Loughton asks Ivor Frank, a member of the panel who is giving evidence alongside Jay, what he thought of Goddard.

Frank says it was easier when Goddard was out of the country.

Q: Was she a nightmare to work with?

Frank says he would not have used that language.

Jay says she thought Goddard would rather have sat as inquiry chair on her own. Jay says she thought Goddard did not want to work with the panel that was supposed to be advising her.

Tim Loughton, the Conservative acting committee chair, is asking the questions.

Q: Dame Lowell Goddard wrote a letter to the committee after she resigned highlighting problems with the inquiry. Did you agree with it?

Prof Alexis Jay says she agrees with some of Goddard’s points. But she does not agree with Goddard’s call for the scope of the inquiry to be reduced. And Goddard did not address the other problems that arose.

Jay also says Goddard was not right about the inquiry being underfunded, because it did not spend all is budget last year.

Q: Do you agree that Goddard should have addressed the problems she identified as chair?

Yes, says Jay.

Child sexual abuse inquiry chair gives evidence to home affairs committee

Professor Alexis Jay, chair of the child sexual abuse inquiry, is about to give evidence to the home affairs committee.

She will be asked about the measures she announced yesterday to make the inquiry more manageable.

But she will also be asked about the circumstances that led to the surprise resignation of her predecessor, Dame Lowell Goddard, in August, and the allegations of misconduct against Goddard, which Goddard strongly denies.

Candidates announced for elections for 4 select committee chairmanships

Politicians love a good election and tomorrow we’ve got four of them in the House of Commons. Five select committee chairmanships have become vacant and, in line with the Wright reforms introduced in 2010 (named after the then Labour MP Tony Wright, who chaired a committee that recommended them), the posts are filled by MPs voting in a secret ballot. Previously it used to be a whips’ stitch-up. Four of the posts are contested, and nominations have just closed.

Two of the committees chairmanships have been allocated to Labour and there is a Jeremy Corbyn effect at work; some particularly experienced candidates are standing who would not normally be standing, because in other circumstances they would be serving on the Labour front bench.

The contest that will attract most attention is the one to replace Keith Vaz as chair of the home affairs committee. This goes to a Labour MP, and there are four candidates.

Yvette Cooper, Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford

Caroline Flint, Don Valley

Paul Flynn, Newport West

Chuka Umunna, Streatham

This will be a fascinating contest. Cooper, a former shadow home secretary, Flint, a former Home Office minister, and Umunna, a former shadow business secretary and a current member of the committee, are all strong, mainstream candidates. Flynn, a career backbencher who briefly held two jobs in Jeremy Corbyn’s shadow cabinet over the summer, is more of a maverick, but he is also passionate about the executive being accountable to parliament.

There will also be keen interest in the contest to become chair of the new Brexit committee. Again, it has been allocated to Labour and there are just two candidates.

Hilary Benn, Leeds Central

Kate Hoey, Vauxhall

Benn is strongly pro-EU, and Hoey is strongly anti, and so it is straight remain/leave fight. Given the fact that most MPs backed remain, and that he is highly respected in the Commons anyway, Benn seems a dead-cert.

There are five candidates for the post of science and technology committee chair, which goes to a Conservative. They are:

Victoria Borwick, Kensington

Stephen Metcalfe, South Basildon and East Thurrock

Dr Poulter, Central Suffolk and North Ipswich

Derek Thomas, St Ives

Matt Warman, Boston and Skegness

And there are just two candidates for the culture, media and sport committee, which also goes to a Conservative.

Damian Collins, Folkestone and Hythe

Helen Grant, Maidstone and The Weald

MPs vote tomorrow and the results will be announced in the afternoon.

The fifth committee is the new international trade one. This has been allocated to the SNP and there is just one candidate for chairman, Angus MacNeil. So he’s got the job.

Whitehall bade farewell to one of its finest at St Margaret’s church, alongside Westminster Abbey, this lunchtime at the memorial service for Chris Martin, who was principal private secretary to David Cameron.

Martin died of cancer last year at the age of just 42, and the church was packed with friends, many of whom are senior civil servants. Cameron gave a Bible reading, before returning to the pews to sit near former Labour leader Ed Miliband, underlining the best civil servants’ ability to serve politicians of all stripes.

Cabinet secretary Jeremy Heywood also spoke; and the address was given by historian of Number Ten, Anthony Seldon, who said Martin’s rapid rise to the very top of the British establishment, via his local comprehensive and Bristol university - not the standard public school and Oxbridge route - should light the way for others.

The BBC’s Kamal Ahmed has written a helpful blog on the Heathrow decision. Here’s an extract.

Philip Hammond, the chancellor, has been careful not to express a view, but senior Treasury officials have made it clear they believe Heathrow is the better option for boosting economic growth.

That is because it is closer to many more population centres in the UK compared to Gatwick, including Bristol and the South West, the Midlands and the north of England.

One other Cabinet minister told me: “I would do both Heathrow and Gatwick - that would tell the world Britain is open for business.”

That option is not officially on the table, although if the government does back Heathrow, it could make positive noises about Gatwick expansion in the future.

Julian Glover, a former Conservative transport adviser (and a former Guardian journalist), has used a post on Twitter to point out that although the government might want to expand links with China, visa rules are still a significant obstacle.

A post-Brexit promise from the prime minister to Northern Ireland’s two leading politicians has caused a political storm in the region today.

Details of Theresa May’s letter to first minister Arlene Foster and deputy first minister Martin McGuinness have been made public.

In her message to the Democratic Unionist and Sinn Fein ministers, May made yet another commitment to maintain freedom of travel for Irish and British citizens not only across the border in Ireland but between the two states. She said:

The UK government, the Northern Ireland executive and the Irish government have all been clear that we wish to see the continuance of the free movement of people and goods across the island of Ireland and the maintenance of the common travel area across the whole of the UK and Ireland, which has served us well.

Although she cited five key areas where her government will address for Northern Ireland - including the border, the agri-food sector and the energy market - the prime minister was vague in her letter about specifics of how London will help Belfast with any negative post-Brexit impact on the economy and society.

The fact that the letter only became public this morning on BBC Radio Ulster’s The Nolan Show has angered other politicians at the Stormont parliament in Belfast. Colum Eastwood, the leader of the Social Democratic and Labour party, has asked why the reply to Foster and McGuinness, who wrote to the Prime Minister in August outlining their concerns, was not debate in the Assembly yesterday. The cross community Alliance party also criticised the lack of “concrete” proposals from Downing Street over Foster and McGuinness’ concerns.

Updated

Post-Brexit inflation will cost 11.5m families an extra £100 a year in lost benefits, says IFS

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has published a short analysis this morning looking at the impact of rising inflation on those claiming benefits. Normally benefits are uprated in line with inflation, but the government has frozen most working-age benefits and tax credits until 2020, which means that higher inflation makes them ever less generous.

Here is the key passage from its analysis.

Figure 1 shows how the size of the expected cut in generosity resulting from the four-year cash freeze has increased in the light of upwards revisions to forecast inflation. As of March 2016 the freeze represented a 4% cut in the value of those benefits affected relative to previous plans (given OBR inflation forecasts). As a result, 11.5 million families were expected to lose an average of £260 a year, saving the government £3.0 billion in 2019–20. Given the latest inflation forecasts from the IMF, the policy now represents a 6% cut to affected benefits. The same 11.5 million families are now expected to lose an average of £360 a year (£100 a year more than expected in March), saving the government £4.2 billion in 2019–20 (i.e. an additional £1.2 billion over what was expected back in March). Greater losses are found among families – typically those on lower incomes – who receive more in benefits: for example, ignoring the 3.2 million families who only receive child benefit, the average loss from higher inflation rises to £140 per year (from £330 to £470).

  • Some 11.5m families set to lose an extra £100 a year from the government’s benefits freeze because of post-Brexit inflation.

And here is the chart quoted in this passage.

The IFS also says that freezing benefits has become “something of a habit” for the government but that it is bad policy.

From the benefit recipient’s perspective, there is a reason that benefits are uprated in line with prices by default – since one purpose of benefits is to provide a minimum standard of living, their level should reflect the cost of purchasing the goods and services required to provide that minimum standard. While it is perfectly reasonable to argue – as the 2015 Conservative Party manifesto did – that the working age benefit system should be made less generous over this parliament, it is hard to see why the appropriate size of cut should be arbitrarily determined by the impact of movements in sterling on prices.

Here is my colleague Jessica Elgot’s story on the airports announcement.

Number 10’s decision to announce that it will be suspending collective responsibility over the airport expansion decision is being taken in the lobby as Downing Street all but admitting that the government will decide to go ahead with the third runway.

This is from the Evening Standard’s Pippa Crerar.

This is from the Daily Mail’s Jason Groves.

And this is from Faisal Islam.

The government will make the final decision on airport expansion at Heathrow or Gatwick next week, the prime minister’s spokeswoman has confirmed.

In the strongest signal the government is preparing to expand the third runway at Heathrow, Theresa May told colleagues at cabinet on Tuesday morning that opponents of whatever decision is made will have a “set period” to speak frankly about their opposition.

Both foreign secretary Boris Johnson and education secretary Justine Greening are vocal opponents of Heathrow expansion. Downing Street would not confirm whether that would mean ministers would have a free vote in Parliament to oppose any decision.

Crucially, the cabinet committee which will make the decision next week has no London MPs among its members. On the committee are Theresa May, chancellor Philip Hammond, business secretary Greg Clark, transport secretary Chris Grayling, communities secretary Sajid Javid. Scottish secretary David Mundell, environment secretary Andrea Leadsom, chief whip Gavin Williamson and party chair Patrick McLoughlin are also on the commitee.

Ministers free to object to Heathrow expansion after decision taken next week, No 10 says

Number 10 has announced that the decision about building a third runway at Heathrow will be taken next week. And ministers will be allowed a free vote, my colleague Jessica Elgot reports.

Updated

Turning back to William Hague and the Bank of England’s independence (see 9.31am), Ben Chu, the Independent’s economics editor, has been responding to Hague’s article on Twitter.

Here is a story from today’s Financial Times (subscription) about the US chambers of commerce report that Ben Bradshaw raised with Boris Johnson. And here is how it starts. (See 11.54am.)

US companies with almost $600bn of investments in the UK are reviewing their plans for expansion in the UK amid concerns over its post-Brexit access to the EU’s single market, the largest US business group has warned.

The US Chamber of Commerce, in a document due to be presented to the UK’s Cabinet Office this week, warns that a post-Brexit UK would need “unfettered access” to the European market in goods and services to retain and attract US investments.

The warning from the world’s largest national business lobby group, which represents companies with investments worth some $590bn in the UK, follows similar warnings from the Japanese business community.

It highlights the delicate balance that Theresa May’s government faces to retain foreign investors’ confidence while working to deliver on the wishes of the majority of UK voters who opted to leave the EU in June.

Emily Thornberry, the shadow foreign secretary, asks about the article Johnson wrote backing EU membership. Why does he no longer agree with himself?

Johnson says people have have read the article conclude that it actually makes the case for leaving the EU.

Labour’s Ben Bradshaw asks about an American Chambers of Commerce report due out that will reportedly say American firms are thinking of leaving the UK after Brexit.

Johnson says he has not seen the report yet.

He says he has no doubt the UK will be able to strike a fantastic deal with the EU, while also becoming more attractive to other countries by striking a great set of trade deals.

Alex Salmond, the SNP international affairs spokesman, asks what Johnson’s stance is on Turkey joining the EU.

Johnson says he is in favour - provided the UK has left the EU by then.

Salmond says Johnson argued for the UK to have full participation in the single market after Brexit during the EU referendum campaign. So why is it wrong for MPs to demand this?

Johnson says no government lets the Commons have a vote on its negotiating position in talks like this.

Boris Johnson takes questions in Commons

Boris Johnson is taking questions in the Commons now. He is talking about Brexit.

Lucy Allan, a Conservative, asks what assurances have been given to Japan about Brexit.

Johnson says investors can be sure we will get the best possible deal.

The SNP’s Chris Law asks what the timetable is for support being given to Scotland to help them cope with Brexit.

Johnson says this was a UK decision. We will get a “fantastic deal for this country”, he says.

Alberto Costa, a Conservative, asks for an assurance that Italians will be able to stay in the UK after Brexit.

Johnson starts by responding in Italian. Then, in English, he says EU citizens will be able to stay in UK provided their is reciprocity.

Updated

Cameron could have won EU referendum if he had eased austerity by £3bn, study claims

Three economists from the University of Warwick have published some fascinating research on the Brexit vote. Sascha Becker, Thiemo Fetzer and Dennis Novy argue that austerity was a key factor in the vote and that, if public spending cuts had been moderately less severe, remain would have won.

They reached his conclusion by studying the referendum results at local level and cross-referencing the results against various socio-economic factors. You can read the entire 62-page paper (Who voted for Brext? A comprehensive district-level analysis) here (pdf). And here is a summary.

(I’m grateful for acme in the comments for flagging this up BTL yesterday.)

  • The academics claims that if the government could have won the referendum if it had spent £3bn more on public services.

Our results indicate that modest reductions in fiscal cuts could have swayed the referendum outcome ...

The analysis suggests that just a slightly less harsh regime of austerity aimed at cutting benefits could have substantially reduced support for the Vote Leave campaign and overturned the result of the EU referendum.

We find that the quality of public service provision is also systematically related to the Vote Leave share. In particular, fiscal cuts in the context of the recent UK austerity programme are strongly associated with a higher Vote Leave share. We also produce evidence that lower-quality service provision in the National Health Service is associated with the success of Vote Leave ...

Our regressions allow for a counterfactual analysis. We find that relatively modest reductions in fiscal cuts at the local authority level (less than £50 per person) may have been sufficient to lead to the opposite referendum outcome, pushing the Vote Leave share below 50 percent. The overall reductions in fiscal cuts would have amounted to less than £3 billion in total for the UK. In contrast, even major changes to immigration from Eastern Europe would have been very unlikely to sway the vote in any meaningful way.

  • They claim that immigration from Eastern Europe increased the leave vote, but not immigration from other EU countries or from outside the EU. But they say reducing immigration from Eastern Europe may not have affected the result.

A reduction in migration from Eastern Europe, which could have been achieved by opting to phase in freedom of movement in 2004 (which much of the rest of Europe did), could have also reduced the margin of victory for the Leave campaign, but would have been unlikely to overturn the referendum result ...

We also find strong evidence that the growth rate of migrants from the 12 EU accession countries that joined the EU in 2004 and 2007 is tightly linked to the Vote Leave share. This stands in contrast to migrant growth from the EU 15 countries or elsewhere in the world. We therefore conclude that migration from predominantly Eastern European countries has had a distinct effect on voters. However, we cannot identify the precise mechanism – whether the effect on voters is mainly economic through competition in the labour and housing markets, or rather in terms of changing social conditions.

  • They say that the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system contributed to leave winning.

Anti-EU parties, in particular the UK Independence Party (Ukip), have seen strong popular support in European parliament elections that are based on proportional representation. However, despite significant popular support for Ukip, the party is essentially not represented in the national parliament, implying that a significant share of voters lack formal access to the political system through representation of their views. At the same time, the strong popular support has rightfully attracted media attention. But it has come with no obligation for far-right politicians to assume roles of responsibility towards their electorate by exercising executive power ...

We argue that the ‘Westminster bubble’ is key to understanding the voting outcome. The under-representation of anti-EU parties in the British parliament is likely a crucial contributing factor to the lack of attention paid in the political process to struggling areas, especially in England and Wales. As a result of the first-past-the-post voting system, Ukip currently only has one member of parliament in the House of Commons out of over 600, despite the fact that Ukip came first in the most recent European Parliament elections. Ukip representatives are therefore hardly in positions of political responsibility and thus largely escape media scrutiny. It may therefore be appropriate to consider ways of introducing more proportional representation into British politics.

But, remember, just because something gets published by academics, that does not mean it is necessarily correct. Chris Hanretty, a politics lecturer and elections expert, has published a critique of the paper arguing that the Warwick authors have confused correlation with causation. Here’s an extract.

The problem (which the authors recognize) is that “local authority cutbacks” are a bit like “purchases of value brands” in the example I gave above: they’re a consequence of an underlying problem, rather than a factor in their own right. As the authors write,

geographic variation in the size of the fiscal cuts captures the underlying baseline degree of demand for benefits: the places with highest demand for benefits were naturally more affected

In other words: cuts were more severe in poorer areas. If poorer areas were more likely to vote Leave, then anything which is associated with poorer areas will also (probably but not necessarily) end up being associated with the Leave vote, and might therefore emerge as a predictor of the Leave vote purely in virtue of this connection.

Oh, by the way — poorer areas were more likely to vote Leave.

Updated

Balls says he fears Corbyn is unelectable

Here are some quotes from Ed Balls’ interview on the Victoria Derbyshire show.

  • Balls, the former shadow chancellor, said that he feared Jeremy Corbyn was unelectable. He said it was possible that Corbyn could make himself electable, but that so far there was no evidence of this happening.

I think that Jeremy Corbyn and his supporters have got to persuade people they actually really want to be in government, because if you want to be in government you’ve got to persuade those sceptical people in the middle to trust you. Now, Jeremy Corbyn has been re-elected as the leader. It looks like he will fight the next election. I am fearful that the way he’s going about it means that Labour is currently unelectable. But he’s still got a chance to turn that round ...

It’s not impossible for Jeremy Corbyn to reach into the centre. But it means he’s got to show he’d be tough on public spending, he’s got to listen to people on national security. He’s got to work with business, rather than be an anti-business figure. So far, we’ve not seen signs of that, but I think he’s got to be given a chance now.

  • He said the leadership challenge against Corbyn was “premature”.
  • Balls said it was possible Corbyn could decided to stand down before the general election.

I think the interesting thing will be if Jeremy Corbyn realises that being supported by thousands of cheering supporters, your members, is not the same as appealing to voters in the country, who are generally too busy with their own lives to come to one of your rallies, and realises that actually this is not for him, and for him to stand aside and therefore have another leadership election before the next general election. I think that is not impossible, and I think that it’s something that he might think about very hard.

  • He said Dan Jarvis could be a credible leadership candidate in the future.

I think Dan Jarvis is a really good guy. He’s got an amazing experience of public service for our country round the world. I think he’s at the still early stages of his political career. He’s chosen not to be a candidate in previous Labour leader elections. I don’t know, he could be, he could be one of the people who might in the next 10, 15 years emerge. I don’t know.

I’ve taken the quotes from PoliticsHome.

Ed Balls seems to be on TV far more often these days talking about his role as a Strictly contestant than he ever was talking about his job as shadow chancellor. He has just been on the BBC’s Victoria Derbyshire show, and he said he thought Jeremy Corbyn might stand down as Labour leader before the general election.

David Coburn, Ukip’s only MEP in Scotland, is one of the UK’s more, er, unvarnished politicians. He has not, until now, features in lists of the runners and riders for the next Ukip leader, but this morning he told Good Morning Scotland, that if the call came, he might be willing to serve. This is what he said when asked if he would be a candidate in the leadership contest.

Can I lead the party? If I were asked by colleagues then of course I would do my best, but it’s not about who is governing, it’s to do with getting a group of people together, a collegiate group of people who are going to run the thing. That’s much more important. Politics is not about individuals, it’s about the collective; what we want is an agenda for the future.

My colleague Marina Hyde has tweeted this response.

For another pen portrait of Coburn, I’ll quote this item from Michael White’s Labour party conference diary two years ago.

After Ed Miliband’s tough conference week it’s now the others’ turn on the ducking stool, starting with Ukip which cheekily meets on the Labour leader’s home patch at Doncaster racecourse tomorrow. Judging by the sound of his noisy telephone conversation on a London-bound train this week, David Coburn, newly-elected Ukip MEP for Scotland, is certain to enliven any debate. Though colourful Coburn complained about leaks from inside Ukip his frequent references to “Nigel” alerted fellow passengers. In quick succession he was heard calling the Greens “a cult-like scientology,” referred to Labour’s Scottish leader, Johann Lamont, as a “fishwife” and to her Tory rival, Ruth Davidson, as “a fat lesbian”. Asked for comment by the Guardian, Coburn, 55, said he often travels on trains, talks a lot and can’t remember it all. Fat lesbian? “Well, she is a lesbian, what about it? I’m a homosexual.” Only in Ukip.

Here is a chart from the ONS bulletin showing changes to CPI inflation over the past year.

Sharp rise in CPI inflation to 1%

The inflation figures are out, and there has been a sharp increase.

  • The rate of consumer price index inflation rose to 1.0% in September from 0.6% in August, the Office for National Statistics said.

Here is the ONS bulletin.

And here is my colleague Graeme Wearden’s business live blog, which is covering this in more detail.

The Conservative party conference was dominated by what the party said about immigration but one of the most intriguing lines to emerge was what Theresa May said about monetary policy and quantitative easing. In remarks that seemed highly critical of the Bank of England, and its QE policy, she said: “While monetary policy, with super-low interest rates and quantitative easing, provided the necessary emergency medicine after the financial crash, we have to acknowledge there have been some bad side effects.” Downing Street later had to clarify that she was not trying to interfere with the Bank’s independence and that QE policy was a matter for them.

But it would be unwise to think that that is the end of the matter, and this morning a powerful voice has come to the aid of those in Number 10 who think it is time for a QE rethink. William Hague, the former Conservative leader and former foreign secretary, has used his column in the Telegraph to suggest that the Bank of England should raise interest rates or lose its independence. He also lists 10 problems with the Bank’s continued reliance on QE. Here is an extract.

I am not an economist but I have come to the conclusion that central banks collectively have now indeed lost the plot. The whole point of their independence was that they could be brave enough to make people confront reality. Yet in reality they are blowing up a bubble of make-believe money to avoid immediate pain, except for penalising the poor and the prudent ...

Some central bankers would mount a strong defence of their approach. They would explain that there is a global glut of savings, so interest rates are in any case kept low by market forces. This is true, but it does not mean those rates have to be driven to zero, or even below zero now in some places, by the authorities ...

I have bad news for them. The accumulating effects of loose monetary policy globally are intensely political. When pension funds renege on promises, or inequality widens further, or savers become desperate, huge public and political anger is gong to burst over the heads of the world’s central banks.

The only way out is for the US Fed to summon the courage to lead the way to higher interest rates, and others to follow slowly but surely. If they fail to do so, the era of their much-vaunted independence will come, possibly quite dramatically, to its end.

Where this will lead, I don’t know, but it is strong stuff, and an interesting indication of how the debate is shifting fundamentally on monetary policy. It is also worth imagining what the reaction would be if Jeremy Corbyn or John McDonnell had written this. When they made much milder suggestions last year about interfering with the Bank’s independence, there were howls of protest in the City.

It is a relatively quiet morning at Westminster, but Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, is taking questions in the Commons later. And this afternoon I will be covering the home affairs committee hearing into the child sexual abuse inquiry in detail.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.30am: Inflation figures are published.

10.45am: The Polish ambassador Arkady Rzegocki and and his Romanian counterpart Dan Mihalache give evidence on Brexit to a Lords committee.

11.10am: Tim Farron, the Lib Dem leader, campaigns in the Witney byelection.

11.30am: Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, takes questions in the Commons.

11.30am: Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, takes part in an LBC phone-in.

2.15pm: Professor Alexis Jay, chair of the child abuse inquiry, gives evidence to the Commons home affairs committee. At 3.45pm Mark Sedwill, the Home Office permanent secretary, gives evidence to the committee.

2.30pm: Jeremy Hunt, the health secretary, and Simon Stevens, the NHS England chief executive, gives evidence to the Commons health committee

3.30pm: Margot James, the business minister, gives a speech to the Resolution Foundation on low pay.

As usual, I will be covering the breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I will post a summary at lunchtime and another in the afternoon.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time. Alternatively you could post a question to me on Twitter.

 

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