Sarah Butler 

From Marmite to bananas: how sterling swings will affect prices

Prices of everyday items including clothing, wine, bread and fruit are expected to come under increasing pressure as Brexit nears
  
  

Bananas
How will the plunging pound affect the price of exotic fruit? Photograph: Alan Porritt/AAP

The row over Marmite has highlighted the sensitivity of the price of everyday items to fluctuations in the value of the pound. A range of goods are expected to rise in price over the next year, as cost rises for retailers gradually filter through to the shop floor.

Clothing

The majority of clothing sold in the UK is made overseas and is paid for by retailers in dollars and so the 17.5% fall in the value of the pound against the US currency will have a major impact on fashion retailer’s costs. Analysts believe retailers are likely to see an increase in cost prices on clothing of between 8% and 10% by next year.

Wine

With 99% of all wine consumed in the UK imported, prices of one of the UK’s favourite tipples are expected to rise considerably. Some contracts have been agreed in euros and so price rises will already have automatically filtered through. Others will have cut long term contracts with suppliers and so may not see a rise for some months. In the three months to 11 September wine prices in shops fell 2.4%, according to analysts at Kantar Worldpanel, although this was partly down to shoppers choosing to swap to cheaper options – for example buying prosecco instead of champagne.

Petrol

Oil is priced in dollars, and so the price of petrol at the pump in the UK has already risen. According to the Petrol Retailers Association wholesale costs to retailers have increased by more than 6p per litre for petrol and 7ppl for diesel in the past few weeks. Heavy competition in the market – with cheap petrol used as a draw by supermarkets who operate a large number of forecourts – has meant average pump prices in the UK have moved up by less than 2ppl for both grades over the same time period. But the PRA has warned motorists can expect further increases.

Bread

As the traditional chains have fought back against the rise of discounters Aldi and Lidl, bread prices have fallen significantly over the past two years. That may be changing. About 85% of wheat used in UK bread is homegrown, but that can depend heavily on the quality of harvests. Other ingredients and elements such as plastic packaging may have risen in cost. Kantar recorded a 0.8% rise in bread prices in the three months to 11 September.

Milk

Milk prices have been under pressure for the past two and a half years as the supermarket price war has raged, prompting farmers to protest last summer. The price they are paid per fell as low as 16p but has now risen slightly to about 20p. The fall in the value of the pound is likely to push up the price of dairy products from abroad.

Bananas

Fruit and other exotic products that cannot be grown in Britain have to be imported from abroad and there’s none more popular than bananas. Priced in dollars, cost prices are likely to rise significantly for retailers and suppliers. Last month, Dublin-based importer Fyffes said it had absorbed a 20% increase in fruit purchasing costs because of the appreciation of the dollar. But price competition between the chains will ensure they will try to keep a lid on increases for shoppers.

 

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