Andrew Sparrow and Claire Phipps 

EU referendum: Michael Gove on BBC’s Question Time EU Special – as it happened

All the day’s news as chancellor warns of £30bn black hole if UK leaves the EU, and Nigel Farage leads pro-Brexit flotilla along the Thames
  
  

Michael Gove on Question Time
Michael Gove on Question Time Photograph: BBC

Gove on Question Time - Summary

  • Gove said that he would not vote for the hypothetic post-Brexit emergency budget proposed by George Osborne today. But, when asked if he would support it, he made it clear that he was saying no because he did not think it would be necessary. Asked if he would vote for it he said:

No, because I think that what we have heard from the Remain campaign throughout this whole referendum have been dire warnings of the terrible consequences of the British people just taking control of our own destiny.

And, the truth is, if we vote to Leave we will be in an economically stronger position. We will be able to take back some of the money that we currently give to the European Union and we can invest it in our priorities.

  • Gove said there will be “bumps in the road” if the UK leaves the EU. However, he refused to say what these would be. He said:

If we leave the European Union, yes there will be bumps in the road, inevitably, but we will be in a better position to deal with them.

  • He said the UK rebate would be cut if Britain stays in the EU.
  • He suggested that immigration would not start to fall until after 2020 if Britain voted to leave the EU because withdrawal would not take place until the end of this parliament.
  • He accused the Remain campaign of “ramping up the fear, turning it up to 11”.
  • He said Turkey would “inevitably” join the EU in his lifetime if Britain stayed in.
  • He was criticised by members of the audience, with one man saying he was “off his rocker” and a woman calling him a “wolf in sheep’s clothing”.

That’s all from me for tonight.

Thanks for the comments.

Updated

Michael Gove has subtly changed what he has been saying about his father’s business since he appeared on Sky News earlier this month.

In his Sky News interview Gove implied the business went bust while his father owned it. He said:

My father had a fishing business in Aberdeen destroyed by the European Union and the Common Fisheries Policy, the European Union …

If you heard earlier, Faisal, I know what it’s like to see someone lose their job as a result of the European Union. I saw my father lose his job, I saw his business go to the wall, I saw 24 people who he employed also lose their jobs.

But Gove’s father told the Guardian he sold the business before it had to close.

Tonight Gove was careful not to say the business closed while his father still owned it. He said:

One of reasons I was able to go to university was because of the sacrifices my family made. One of the things I know about the European Union is that the European Union can destroy jobs. My dad ran a fish business in Aberdeen. The common fisheries policy unfortunately led to the devastation of fishing in Scotland. My dad had to close his business. As a result something that he been built up by by grandfather and maintained by my dad disappeared. So my dad suffered ...

My dad has been clear, he was clear to the BBC on Sunday night, he was clear to me when I was a boy, that the business that he invested so much care and time in had to close as a result of the common fisheries policy.

Transcript of the Guardian's conversation with Michael Gove's father

This is a full transcript of the interview the Guardian had by telephone with Ernest Gove, Michael Gove’s father, on the morning Tuesday 14 June. It has been slightly edited to remove verbal tics and some slight repetition.

Ernest Gove: “Hello?”

Severin Carrell: Oh, hello, is that Earnest Gove?

EG: “Yeah, it is.”

SC: Hi. My name is Severin Carrell, I’m the Guardian newspaper’s Scotland editor. I’m just phoning to see whether you’d be able to give me some more information about what happened to your family business in the early ‘80s. Just following up on the interviews your son Michael has been giving and the speeches he has made about the CFP [Common Fisheries Policy].

EG: “There’s nothing really to go back about anyway because it just was, when Europe went into fishing, the industry more or less collapsed down and I just packed in and got a job with another firm, you know. That was all that was happening.

“That was all that was happening. It wasn’t any hardship or things like that, or what you call it: I just decided to call it a day and just sold up my business and went on to work with someone else, you know.”

SC: Right. So there wasn’t any hardship?

EG: “It wasn’t because of hardship but I couldn’t see any future in it, that type of thing, the business that I had, so I just said I wasn’t going to go into all the trouble of going hardship, and things like that. I just decided to sell up and get a job with someone else, you know. That was all.”

SC: Okay.

EG: “And that’s all it was, like.”

SC: The reason I’m interested is it’s just that I have covered the fishing industry quite a bit in my work and I was a bit puzzled about whether, how the CFP itself would’ve been the sole cause of problems in Aberdeen because I know from other people in the industry that the biggest issues in the early, mid 1980s were to do with the 200 mile nautical limit, the cod wars; then there was the competition in Aberdeen harbour with North Sea oil and gas, and there was the dockworkers strike, all of that happening making life in Aberdeen much more difficult.

EG: “You had all that going on. So, to be quite honest, I just decided to sell up really and then go ahead and try and make a good living out of it, I can get a job with someone I could be more or less employed and know I was going to be employed.

“But as I say, yes oil and everything else came along and things like that. I mean, as you understand, that is just what industry does. It goes on and on and on and you go from one to another and to another. As regards my own business, I just decided, as I said, that things weren’t going to work well with me, and I decided to pack it in and that’s all.”

SC: Right. OK. When was that?

“I couldn’t tell you the dates. It’s eh … I’m getting on for 80 now. So all these type of things is not staying in my head, you know.”

SC: OK. But would it have been around 1983, ’84, ’85, that kind of time?

EG: “I couldn’t really say because I can’t remember to be honest. But that’s all that I can tell you.”

SC: My final question Mr Gove, if you don’t mind. Were you aware that Michael had been saying that the CFP had destroyed your business? And it was solely to blame for the business folding?

“Yeah but I’m not saying anything because I’m not going against my son and I’m not going … he’s got his own policies, his own mind, and reasons, and I’m not going to give out any information at all to turn round and say one way or another. No, no, I’m not going to start fighting over [heads](?).

“As far as I’m concerned, I decided it wasn’t going to be my way of living, the way things was going, and I decided to change it. That was all.”

SC: Alright

EG: “Okay?”

SC: Thanks very much, I’m grateful.

EG: “Okay? Right.”

SC: Bye now, bye bye.

Updated

Gove on the Guardian

Here is the key quote from Michael Gove about the Guardian’s story about his father contradicting claims made by Gove himself about the family’s fish processing firm in Aberdeen being destroyed by the European Union’s fisheries policies. Gove told Question Time:

My dad was rung up by a reporter from the Guardian who tried to put words into his mouth but my dad has been clear, he was clear to the BBC on Sunday night, he was clear to me when I was a boy, that the business that he invested so much care and time in had to close as a result of the common fisheries policy.

I remember when my dad ran his business. Two of his employees were lads who were in a care home. They did not have parents. My dad took them in, gave them a job and allowed them to work in his business and to sleep there in a spare room that he made for them. That business closed. Those boys lost their home as a result of what happened. I know what my dad went through when I was a schoolboy and I don’t think that the Guardian or anyone else should belittle his suffering or try to get a 79-year-old man to serve their agenda instead of agreeing and being proud of what his son does.

Updated

Gove on Question Time - Snap verdict

Gove on Question Time - Snap verdict: Michael Gove’s appearance on Sky News’s EU referendum special two weeks ago was generally viewed as a success. Personally I felt that his failure to answer key economic questions was a fatal handicap, but generally commentators felt he came across as measured, likeable and persuasive.

Tonight did not go quite so smoothly. It did not go badly either, but Gove sounded just a little more edgy and thin-skinned, and at times some of his answers sounded glib. Question Time with David Dimbleby is in a league of its own when it comes to getting members of a studio audience to interrogate politicians in a forensic way, and not just a shouty way, and Gove had several exchanges with people where his answers clearly fell short (eg the woman with the translation business). It was also interesting to note that immigration, which is normally an easy subject for leave, was quite tricky for him tonight, with Dimbleby highlighting the government’s failure to use its powers to curb non-EU migration and a Spanish woman trying to make Gove ashamed of his stance.

The highlight, though, was Gove’s attack on the Guardian. All of us can understand the desire to protect one’s parents and no doubt many people watching will sympathise with what he said. We will be publishing more on this soon. But as far as I’m aware at no point has Gove, or anyone else, challenged the accuracy of a single word attributed to Gove’s father in Severin Carrell’s story. I’ve worked with Severin on and off for about 20 years and he is one of the most scrupulous and accurate reporters I know. Obviously you would expect me to say that. You’ll have to read his story and Gove’s remarks (which I will post shortly) and decide for yourself who you trust.

Updated

Q: Do you regret using the £350m a week figure for the amount the EU costs the UK?

Gove says some people have criticised. He says that is the amount of money the EU controls. Some of it comes back. But the rebate has been cut in the past, and it will be cut in the future again if we stay in.

  • Gove says UK rebate will be cut if we remain in the EU.

Q: You sound plausible, but I can’t help thinking you are a wolf in sheep’s clothing. (She is using a phrase Jeremy Corbyn used yesterday.)

Gove says Britain will be stronger, freer and fairer outside the EU.

And that’s it.

I will post a verdict and a summary soon.

Updated

Gove says he does not favour deporting anyone who is hard working.

But he says a Bank of England report showed wages were being held down by immigration. It is not right to set community against community, he says.

He says he objects to the way a member of the audience is talking down people in this country.

A member of the audience complains about how immigrants like her are treated in this country. “We are not the enemy, Mr Gove,” she says.

Gove says he understands the woman’s point of view. He is in favour of migration, he says. He just wants to control the numbers.

The woman says she does not believe him.

Updated

Gove suggests immigration would not be reduced until after 2020 if we left the EU

Gove says he thinks we can secure exit from the EU by 2020.

And we can get immigration down in the next parliament.

  • Gove suggests immigration would not be reduced until after 2020 if we left the EU.

Q: But the government can control immigration from outside the EU, and those numbers are still well over 100,000.

Gove says that is within our control. If we leave the EU, we cannot place any limits on migration from within the EU.

Gove says under EU law there are criminals here we cannot deport. If we leave the EU, we can have an Australian-style points system.

Q: Are you scaremongering when you say Turkey will join the EU?

Absolutely not, says Gove. He says the Financial Times has a story today saying moves to get Turkey into the EU are being accelerated.

Q: Cameron says we have a veto on Turkey joining the EU?

Gove says that is correct. But it is official government policy for Turkey to join. The government has no intention of using that veto.

He says he thinks Turkey joining the EU will “’inevitably” happen in our lifetime unless we vote to leave.

  • Gove says Turkey will “inevitably” join the EU in our lifetime unless we vote to leave.

Updated

Q: If we get a leave vote, are you confident a prime minister who campaigned for remain will deliver what the country wants?

Gove says the referendum is about giving instructions to the prime minister. David Cameron has promised he will abide by the decision of the people.

Q: And what will happen to George Osborne. Some 65 Tory MPs say they will not vote for his budget. Will he have to go?

Gove says the remain campaign have been “ramping up the fear, turning it up to 11”. Do you want the UK to govern itself? Or do you want it run by the EU and its five presidents, none of whom you can name?

Updated

Gove attacks the Guardian for its report saying EU not to blame for his father's business going bust

Q: I study English literature, and the manipulation of words. All I’ve heard from you is manipulation.

Gove says he read English too. Vote Leave has put forward a plan today for what would happen. He says he was able to go to university because of his family’s sacrifices. He says his father lost his fishing business because of EU policies. The EU is a job-destroying machine. That is a tragedy.

Q: Today your father is quoted as saying it was not the EU that made him close his business.

Gove says his father was rung up by a Guardian journalist “who tried to put words in his mouth”. He says he remembers what happened. He says two workers lost their homes. The Guardian should not be using a 79-year-old man to suit their agenda, and it should not be belittling what he did.

  • Gove accuses Guardian of presenting a twisted view of his father’s comments about how he lost his business.
  • He stands by his claim that the EU was to blame for his father losing his business.

Updated

Q: I run a small business and more than 50% of my trade is with the EU. How can you guarantee that I won’t lose out?

Gove says there will be no reason to think they will impose tariffs. It will be in their interests not to impose tariffs.

Q: But I sell to them. I have a translation business. It is much more difficult to work with non-EU countries. And if we become a non-EU country, it will be harder for me.

Gove says that will only be the case if EU countries take leave of their senses. It is in the interests of both sides to keep tariffs down.

Q: But you tell us the EU does take leave of its senses. You quoted Donald Tusk.

Gove says they are trying to scare us into staying, because we pay many of the bills.

Updated

Q: As a physicist I am terrified what will happen to British science if we succeed. What will we do when our funding dries up?

Gove says some physicists think we will be better off outside the EU. And all the EU money going to universities is our money in the first place.

He says he does not believe in the scare stories. Donald Tusk says Brexit will lead to the end of Western civilisation.

Q: But we get more money out of the EU for science than we put in.

Gove says that is not true. Overall we hand over £20bn to the EU.

Q: But for science we get more than we put in. The IOP [Institute of Physics] has said that, the Royal Society has said that.

Gove says we hand over £20bn, and get £10bn back.

Q: The risks are economic. What trading relationship will we have? You want us to lose autonomy, and lose influence over decision making. You are off your rocker if you think we are better off.

Gove says the Germans sell more cars to us than we sell to them. Germany won’t punish its car workers.

Updated

Q: Everything in life has risks. What are the risks of leaving?

Gove says the questioner is right. But he thinks we will be better off out. Yes, there will be bumps in the road ...

Q: What will they be?

Gove says there will be risks if we leave or stay.

Q: Are you saying there are now downsides from leaving.

Gove says the UK will be in a stronger position if we leave. It won’t be milk and honey. But the British people will be liberated to deal with any risks they encounter.

Updated

Q: If you value the NHS so much, where was your support for junior doctors?

Gove says the NHS will be stronger if we leave. It will have more money, and be under less strain.

Q: Why are you dismissing the views of economic experts?

Gove says they were wrong about the euro and the ERM.

Q: But the IFS did not support the euro.

Gove says he wants the UK to take back control of its affairs.

Q: How can we trust you when you co-authored a book saying we should dismantle the NHS?

Gove says he supports the NHS. He says leaving would allow us to give it an extra £100m a week.

Q: But John Major said you want to privatise it.

Gove says he cherishes it.

Q: But 10 years ago you wanted to privatise it. You have changed your mind.

Gove says the book was written by a group of people. He did not write anything in it about the NHS. His commitment to the NHS is absolute.

He wants the money to be spent by us, on our priorities. He does not know of a higher priority to the British public.

Q: If we vote to leave the EU, will you support George Osborne’s punishment budget?

No, says Michael Gove.

He says all we have heard from remain have been dire warnings.

But the economy will do well, he says. Leaving would be a “win, win” for the economy. The EU has the lowest growth of any continent apart from Antarctica.

Q: George Osborne was talking about IFS figures. You respect the IFS.

Gove says the IFS did not say there would be a £30bn hole in the budget immediately after we left. Stuart Rose, who leads the in campaign, has said nothing would change if we left, he says.

  • Gove says he would not support Osborne’s post-Brexit austerity budget. But he says he is saying that because he does not accept it would be necessary.

Gove says “it’s a shame” the remain camp are talking this country down – with some anger in his voice.

Updated

Question Time EU Special

David Dimbleby is introducing the programme.

They are recording from Nottingham.

Tonight’s Question Time is going out live. Normally it records an hour or so before transmission.

Labour's Emma Reynolds says Vote Leave has 'dodgy claims and dishonesty at its core'

The Labour MP Emma Reynolds has put out a statement, via Britain Stronger in Europe, welcoming the fact that Michael Gove’s father has said the EU was not to blame for his business going bust - even though this is what Gove himself has claimed. She said:

I’m glad that Michael Gove’s father has made clear the EU did not destroy his fishing business.

From Boris’ bananas to Gove’s fishy tales, the Leave campaign has dodgy claims and dishonesty at its core.

If they can’t be trusted on the basic facts, how can they be trusted with the future of our country?

The truth is the only way to secure jobs, lower prices and funding for our public service is to vote remain on the 23rd June.

Michael Gove on the BBC's Question Time EU Special

The BBC’s Question Time EU Special with Michael Gove starts in 10 minutes.

And this is from the SNP MSP Gillian Martin on the Michael Gove story.

Michael Gove has been caught out – he should call it a day on his attempts to spin a tale about his family history.

If Mr Gove was as concerned by the plight of the Scottish fishing industry as he says, then he’d never have joined the political party that viewed it “expendable” in the first place. It’s not the EU that’s to blame for the difficulties of the fishing industry, but the indifference of the UK government who sold the industry out.

Updated

Here is the Lib Dem MPS Tavish Scott on the Guardian’s revelations about Michael Gove’s father denying claims made by his son that the family’s fish processing firm in Aberdeen was destroyed by the European Union’s fisheries policies. Scott said:

Michael Gove’s father has just slapped him round the face with a wet fish. He spent hours this week telling anyone who would listen that the EU was to blame for the demise of his family business but now it seems there is something more than a little bit fishy about his claims.

Commons debate on the EU - Highlights

MPs have been debating a Labour motion on the economic benefits of the EU. Earlier, in response to a question BTL, I said it looked a bit dull, but reading the Press Association coverage, I see there were some good lines in it. Here are some highlights.

  • John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, said the Brexit campaign had done more damage to capitalism in four days than the SWP did in 40 years.

There is a well-founded concern that withdrawal will put jobs, investment, trade and employment at risk.

The unpredictability of the outcome of this leap in the dark has united virtually every economist and economic institution of any standing from the IMF to the OECD, the Bank of England to the Institute of Fiscal Studies, to express their concerns at the risk to the economy.

We have witnessed in the last 72 hours the reaction of the world markets to shifts in the polls pointing to a possible Brexit. £100bn has been knocked off the value of shares and the value of the pound has dropped. The Brexit campaign in four days has done more damage to capitalism than the Socialist Workers Party (SWP) in 40 years.

  • Nick Clegg, the former Lib Dem leader, said he used to be an EU trade negotiator and knew it was “laughable” to think the UK would get a better trade deal outside the EU.

I’ve spent a lot of time with a lot of international trade negotiators - these are very unsentimental folk.

And the idea, it’s almost laughable simply to say it, that you can pull out of the world’s largest economic bloc and then say to these unsentimental folk - who have driven such a hard bargain with that bloc of 500m - ‘We want not just the same, we want better deals, a better set of conditions on behalf of an economy of only 60m’.

Who do the Brexit camp think these negotiators are? They’re not stupid, they’re not naive.

They will just snigger and I look in vain, I’ve scoured the internet this morning, for apparently all these freedom-loving nations who will cut these favourable deals with us as we depart, apparently, to this world of milk and honey where effortlessly people will give us concessions which they didn’t give to a bloc of 500m.

Can you find anyone? Have the Indians said ‘Yep, oh sure, we’ll give you what you want’? Have the Americans said it? Have the Canadians said it? Have the Australians said it? Has anyone said it?

Not a single country anywhere in the world has said they will give better terms of trade to the United Kingdom on its own than the European Union.

  • Philip Hammond, the foreign secretary, said the Brexiteers were hostile to globalisation.

The world’s supply chain has globalised itself and I have to say to you if I’m honest, when I listen to the arguments of some of our opponents in this debate, while they frame them in terms of a hostility to the European Union, I do sometimes wonder whether what I’m hearing is a hostility to the globalisation of our economy.

  • The Conservative MP Oliver Colvile said he was voting Remain because he did not trust France and Germany to run the EU.

The reason I will be voting to remain in is because frankly I don’t trust the Germans and the French to run Europe without us being there at that table keeping them at close heel. To my mind our job in Europe is to maintain the balance of power and that is utterly crucial. Because when we have walked away from Europe we have found ourselves having to pay for that with an enormous amount of blood and an enormous amount of treasure.

  • The Conservative MP Sir Bill Cash described the EU as a “kind of dictatorship”.

I do believe in peace and I do believe in good relations. What really troubles me however is when the majority voting system and the decisions are taken behind closed doors are so manifestly undemocratic, it is impossible to justify, and it becomes a kind of dictatorship behind closed doors.

We in this House make our decisions based upon speeches which are made in public, which are reported, the votes are there, we’re held to be accountable. This is not the case in the European Union.

  • The Conservative MP Sheryll Murray recalled how her fisherman husband died in an accident on his trawler.

Whilst I cannot say that Neil died as a result of the CFP [Common Fisheries Policy], I can say it contributed to the economic pressure he felt when deciding to fish alone.

These figures, from YouGov’s Joe Twyman, are quite telling.

My colleague Severin Carrell has sent me more about Michael Gove’s father denying claims made by his son that the family’s fish processing firm in Aberdeen was destroyed by the European Union’s fisheries policies. Here is some extra material left out from Severin’s story for space reasons because it was written for publication in the paper.

Other senior figures in the Scottish fishing industry said Aberdeen’s fishing businesses suffered too from competition from Peterhead, which was offering far better facilities for the fishing fleet, in the 1980s – the time when Gove gave up his company EE Gove and Sons.

That competition came at the same time as Aberdeen’s port facilities were under heavy pressure from vessels needed in the rapidly expanding North Sea oil and gas industry; industrial unrest from dock workers, and the impact of the cod wars.

John Buchan, one of the organisers of the Fishing for Leave flotilla on the Thames and a vocal supporter of Gove’s Brexit campaign, told the Guardian many larger trawler firms in Aberdeen went bankrupt because the new 200 nautical miles territorial limits closed down the Icelandic and north Norwegian fishing grounds after the cod wars. But the smaller trawlers moved to Peterhead, which is now the UK’s largest fishing port. “It all linked up,” Buchan said.

Gove Snr confirmed these were factors when he spoke to the Guardian on Tuesday morning.

“You had all that going on,” he said. “To be quite honest, I just decided to sell up and go ahead and try and make a good living, I can get a job with someone, I could be more or less employed and know I was going to be employed.

“Yes, oil and everything else came along and things like that. I mean, as you understand, that is just what industry does. It goes on and on and on and you move from one to another. As regards my own business, I just decided that things weren’t going to work well with me, I just decided to pack it in, that’s all.”

Tory revolt against Osborne grows as 65 MPs oppose post-Brexit emergency budget plan

Sky’s Beth Rigby has a list of the 65 Tory MP who are now saying they would vote against George Osborne’s hypothetical post-Brexit budget. This morning there were 57 Tory MPs on the list.

According to the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg, 65 Tory MPs have now signed the letter saying they would not back George Osborne’s hypothetical post-Brexit budget.

Michael Gove’s father has contradicted claims made by his son that the family’s fish processing firm in Aberdeen was destroyed by the European Union’s fisheries policies, Severin Carrell reports.

Here’s his story.

And here’s how it starts.

Michael Gove’s father has contradicted claims made by his son that the family’s fish processing firm in Aberdeen was destroyed by the European Union’s fisheries policies.

Ernest Gove told the Guardian he had sold the business voluntarily because the fishing industry in Aberdeen was being hit by a range of different factors. Those included competition for space in the port from North Sea oil vessels, the Icelandic cod wars, dockworkers’ strikes and new 200-mile limits to control over-fishing.

Michael Gove, who is representing the Vote Leave campaign in a BBC Question Time tonight, has said in speeches and television interviews that his father’s firm “went to the wall” because of the EU’s fisheries policies, and that the common fisheries policy “destroyed” it.

Updated

John Swinney, Scotland’s deputy first minister, has said pledges that a Brexit vote would lead to more powers for the Scottish parliament are a “Tory con trick,” after Scottish leave campaigners said Holyrood would be liberated by leaving the UK.

Speaking after former SNP deputy leader Jim Sillars and ex-Tory MSP Brian Monteith said a Brexit vote would unshackle Holyrood from the EU (see 1.24pm), Swinney said:

Those powers would go straight back from Brussels to Westminster, who would have absolutely no obligation to devolve anything.

The leave campaign is led by the very same people who have, at every opportunity, resisted the transfer of powers to Scotland – so their hollow offers of more powers are nothing more than a Tory con-trick.

The way to get more powers for the Scottish parliament is for Scotland to become an independent nation – not to cross our fingers for a Damascene conversation from Boris Johnson and Michael Gove.

The European commission has today put out a statement about relations with Turkey. It is mostly about the deal designed to stop migrants crossing from Turkey to Greece, but it includes a paragraph on accession (Turkey joining the EU) which says: “Preparatory work continues at an accelerated pace to make progress on five Chapters, without prejudice to Member States’ positions in accordance with the existing rules.”

The significance of this seems minimal, but Vote Leave has issued a press notice about it. Matthew Elliott, Vote Leave’s chief executive, said:

David Cameron wants to “pave the road from Ankara”. It’s disingenuous for him to claim it’s not going to happen when he is campaigning for it, when the commission in their own words are accelerating the bid and when UK taxpayers are paying money to make it happen. Voters want to take back control, not see a border free zone from the English Channel to Syria.

This, from the Political Patridge twitter account, has received almost 2,000 retweets.

And, equally predictably, the New Statesman has come out for Remain in this week’s edition. Here’s an extract from its editorial.

There have been moments in Britain’s history when the country could have withdrawn in relatively benign circumstances. This is not one of them. Should Scotland vote to remain while the rest of the UK votes to leave, a second independence referendum and the break-up of the Union could result. Brexit would threaten the hard-won peace in Northern Ireland by encouraging the return of border controls. The UK’s departure would embolden fascists and populists across the continent, most notably Marine Le Pen in France, and enhance Russia’s revanchist ambitions. It is far from inconceivable that Brexit could set in train the break-up of the EU.

To no one’s surprise, the Spectator has come out in favour of Brexit in this week’s edition. Here’s an extract from its editorial.

The value of sovereignty cannot be measured by any economist’s formula. Adam Smith, the father of economics, first observed that the prosperity of a country is decided by whether it keeps its ‘laws and institutions’ healthy. This basic insight explains why nations thrive or fail, and has been the great secret of British success: intellectual, artistic, scientific and industrial. The principles of the Magna Carta and achievements of the Glorious Revolution led to our emergence as a world power. To pass up the chance to stop our laws being overridden by Luxembourg and our democracy eroded by Brussels would be a derogation of duty to this generation and the next.

Idris Elba is backing Remain.

The Trade Union and Socialist Coalition (TUSC), the leftwing group backing Brexit, has put out a statement saying if necessary Labour MPs should vote against the post-Brexit budget measures George Osborne is proposing. In a statement Dave Nellist, the former Labour MP who chairs TUSC, said there would be no point leaving the EU only to carry on with austerity.

Ultimately, Brexit on a capitalist basis will produce broadly the same results as Remain on a capitalist basis – continued austerity, attacks on wages and living standards, cuts and privatisation of public services.

That’s why TUSC stands for an economy based on democratic public ownership of the major companies and banks (see http://www.tusc.org.uk/policy), a vision of a democratic socialist society rooted in Labour’s old ‘Clause Four’.

We stand in solidarity with those Labour politicians who fight for a similar position, in or out of the EU.

But TUSC supports a leave vote, firstly because the EU creates an extra layer of legal obstacles to the labour and trade union movement – against workers’ rights and socialist measures generally – and secondly because the referendum gives us a chance to strike a blow at the Tories and the whole capitalist establishment.

6 former disability ministers say staying in EU best for disability rights

Six former disability ministers - three Tory, three Labour - have united to sign a joint letter to the Guardian saying that the rights of disabled people are “best protected and advanced by the UK’s continued membership of the European Union”. The list is headed by William Hague, who took the landmark Disability Discrimination Act 1995, through parliament, and it includes Alistair Burt, who is currently a health minister. The others are Dame Margaret Hodge, Maria Miller, Maria Eagle and Dame Anne McGuire.

Here is an extract.

All of our governments have striven to close the disability employment gap. The Disability Discrimination Act 1995 inspired the European Union to adopt EU-wide measures to tackle workplace discrimination against disabled people. In turn, the EU has helped improve our law, ensuring that it covers all employers irrespective of size and offers protection to those associated with a disabled person, particularly helping Britain’s six million carers. Between 2010-14 EU money also supported over 430,000 disabled people –235 disabled people every day - to take steps to move towards paid work.

The single market continues to play a vital role in opening up the world to disabled people, building on the Disability Discrimination Act 2005 by pushing the frontiers of accessible travel, products, services and the Internet. It doesn’t make financial or practical sense for the UK to progress these areas in isolation. For example, there would have been little advantage in the UK legislating to demand assistance for disabled people when travelling by air, if this meant people being able to board a plane in Manchester, yet unable to disembark in Malaga. EU-wide measures enable disabled people to travel on business or holiday with much greater confidence.

Updated

Labour’s deputy leader Tom Watson has said that Brexit would be “even worse than Tory government” and pleaded with voters not to vote Leave because they wanted to “give David Cameron a bloody nose”.

In a speech to Labour activists in Kings Cross, London, Watson said: “Please don’t vote Leave to spite David Cameron and end up blighting the country instead.”

He acknowledged that Labour’s position on the referendum remains unclear to many supporters, even though the campaign has brought together figures from all over the party, creating some unlikely pairings - he named Jeremy Corbyn and Tony Blair, and Len McCluskey and Peter Mandelson.

He argued that the resentment of immigration that has surfaced among many traditional Labour voters is misplaced, laying the blame instead at the door of the Tory deregulation of labour markets in the 1980s.

Previous generations of immigrants had not affected wages, but the reforms to labour laws had led to a “race to the bottom”. “This has been going on long before Polish plumbers and Spanish care workers came along,” he said.

Farage denies claim he's been offered a job in a Boris Johnson government

Channel 4 News’s Michael Crick has picked up an intriguing rumour.

Lunchtime summary

This budget takes the mid-point of the IFS’s estimates, £30 billion, as the likely deterioration in the public finances and shows the types of trade-offs involved in dealing with such a deficit in 2019-20.

One plausible scenario shows that:

Health spending would be cut by £2.5 billion, defence spending by £1.2 billion and education spending by a similar amount

The basic rate of income tax would rise by 2 pence to 22p and the higher rate by 3 pence to 43p

Capital spending would be reduced by £2.4 billion Fuel and alcohol duties would increase by 5%

The balance between tax and spend would be up to the government at the time.

Ironically, Osborne’s forecasts are bleaker than the ones the Labour party produced on Friday last week when it published its own version of what a dire, post-Brexit Tory budget might look like. Unveiling the document at an event with Alistair Darling, Labour chancellor at the time of the financial crash, Osborne said:

We have both been chancellor as the economy has faced very difficult times. We know what happens when we lose control of the economy.

We both had to deal with the consequences of the public finances collapsing and the difficult decisions we then had to make.

But 57 pro-Brexit Tory MPs have signed an open letter saying they would refuse to pass the measures Osborne is proposing. (See 8.29am.) This suggests he would not be able to pass a budget like this in the event of Britain voting to leave the EU. More importantly, it also suggests that Osborne may find it impossible to carry on as chancellor even in the event of Remain winning because his standing with some Tory MPs has been so badly damaged. One theory is that, if Leave win, the demotion of Osborne could be the price Tory Brexiteers demand for allowing David Cameron to continue as prime minister.

  • Jeremy Corbyn has mocked the 57 Tory MPs opposing Osborne. At PMQs he said Labour would oppose an austerity budget of this kind. He went on:

Will you take this opportunity to condemn the opportunism of 57 of your colleagues who are pro-Leave - these are members who backed the bedroom tax, backed cutting disability benefits and slashing care for the elderly - who suddenly have now had a Damascene conversion to the anti-austerity movement? Do you have any message for them? Do you have any message for them at all?

Cameron replied:

Nobody wants to have an emergency budget, nobody wants to have cuts in public services, nobody wants to have tax increases. But I would say this - there’s only one thing worse than not addressing a crisis in your public finances, addressing it through a budget, and that is ignoring it. Because if you ignore a crisis in your public finances, you see your economy go into a tailspin, you see confidence in your country reduced. We can avoid all of this by voting Remain next week.

Updated

Irish rugby international Rory Best has come out for the Remain side in the EU referendum.The Ulster player has sent a tweet from Ireland’s tour of South Africa supporting an In vote.

After the Irish victory over the Springboks, Best tweeted from Cape Town: “Thursday 23rd June is an important date for farmers&the agrifood sector. Support them by voting to stay in EU.”

Best’s backing of the In campaigns come on the back of Northern Ireland’s biggest employer, the chicken producer, has also called for an In vote.

Moy Park’s chief executive Janet McCollum said: “We are a European business and Europe is our market. Any move way from the free market could increase tariffs, add administrative burdens and limit export opportunities.”

Here is a Guardian video of PMQs highlights.

David Cameron and Jeremy Corbyn debate possible post-Brexit budget

The flotilla arrived at Tower Bridge as Greenpeace attacked one of the largest trawlers in the protest, the Christina S from Peterhead, over its role in a £63m fisheries fraud scandal four years ago, the worst yet involving the UK fisheries industry.

The joint skippers of the vessel, Ernest Simpson and his son Allan Simpson, were each fined £65,000 and had a total of £725,000 confiscated by Scottish courts in September 2012 after they admitted illegally landing mackerel and herring in Peterhead and Shetland.

Earnest Simpson pled guilty to landing more than £2m worth of undeclared fish while his son Allan admitted to more than £2.7m in undeclared fish, in a scandal involving dozens of Scottish skippers and several major processing factories.

John Sauven, the executive director of Greenpeace UK, said that it was “an unfortunate choice” to have the Christina S as one of the “showstopper” boats on the protest.

It was co-owned by one of the fisheries giants referred to by Jeremy Corbyn at prime ministers questions, Andrew Marr International, which controls 12% of the English fishing quota, with the Marr family worth £122m.

Here’s some video footage from the battle of the Thames.

Rival pro and anti-EU boats on the Thames.

Pro-Brexit campaigners in Scotland, led by the former SNP deputy leader Jim Sillars and ex-Tory MSP Brian Monteith, have claimed the country would have far more “democratic sovereignty” and money outside the EU.

They released a pamphlet through the Leave.eu campaign headed by Nigel Farage just as an Ipsos Mori poll for STV found the gap between the in and out vote in Scotland had narrowed sharply, by 13 points over the last six weeks.

The STV poll still gave the remain vote in Scotland a clear lead of 58% against 33% for leave, with 8% undecided. It confirmed the trend in favour of Brexit at UK level: in April, Ipsos put remain at 66% and leave at 29%. That implies the prospect of a massive pro-EU vote from Scotland helping remain win at UK level is receding.

The Monteith and Sillars paper, “Democratic, Prosperous and Free”, openly targets Scottish nationalists – about a third of whom back a leave vote - and Scottish devolutionists by claiming Brexit would allow Holyrood far greater autonomy within the UK because it already significant powers over domestic policy.

“We can make decision-making more democratic and accountable by taking control back from Brussels and giving it to the Scottish electorate. For instance, it will mean the powers to manage farming and fisheries coming to the Scottish parliament – why would Scottish politicians wish to be against that?” Monteith said.

Here are some more pictures from the flotilla.

Updated

On the waves outside parliament, fishermen claim they have boarded Geldof’s boat “to tell him the truth”. A police boat is alongside but the pro-Brexit fishing vessel Wayward Lad has pulled up to Geldof’s pleasure cruiser.

Parliamentarians are looking on from the terrace, three helicopters, including police hovering above.

Nigel Farage has attacked Bob Geldof’s aquatic intervention as “ignorant” and “insulting”.

“He doesn’t know anything about the common fisheries policy,” he told the Guardian. “You can’t reform it from within. You can’t change it. There is nothing you can do apart from leave.”

Asked about the barrage of noise, he said: “It’s just insulting to these people. Some of these lads have come from the north of Scotland, communities that have never been listened to where we have seen tens of thousands of jobs lost and a way of life destroyed and they come here to make their protest and be heard and they get a multi-millionaire laughing at them. Horrible disgusting.”

Geldof wasn’t in fact laughing at the fishermen. He addressed Farage’s boat before it reached the fishing flotilla.

Geldof said: “Here are the facts about fishing. Britain makes more money than any other country in Europe from fishing. Two. Britain has the second largest quota for fishing in Europe after Denmark. Three. Britain has the third largest landings. Fourth, you are no fisherman’s friend.”

Angus Robertson's questions

Angus Robertson, the SNP leader, gets two questions at PMQs, but they were left out in my minute by minute coverage because I was doing the snap summary. So here they are.

Robertson started by asking about the referendum.

Does the prime minister agree with me if we want to protect jobs, if we want to protect public services, we must remain in the European Union?

Cameron did agree.

I do believe the most important argument is about the future of our economy and it seems obvious to me today we have full access to a market of 500m people, for an economy like Scotland which is such a big exporting economy, there’s no way we would get a better deal outside that market than on the inside.

Robertson then asked about the impact of Brexit on public services. Cameron replied:

Decisions to cut public spending in the UK budget do have an impact, through Barnett, on Scotland. To anyone who says these warnings could be wrong or inaccurate - there were warnings about the oil price before the Scottish referendum, it turned out actually to be worse than the experts warned.

Christopher Chope, a Conservative, says he is looking forward to the UK voting for Brexit, so that he can vote against Osborne’s vindictive budget.

Cameron says he hopes people will vote to remain in the EU.

And that’s it.

(Good to see John Bercow’s campaign to extend PMQs by 10 minutes so it last for 40 minutes is going well.)

Asked about the North Middlesex A&E unit, Cameron says the health secretary is monitoring this closely. But if we stay in the EU, there will be more money for the NHS.

Nigel Adams, a Conserative, says there has been “hysterical scaremongering” during the EU referendum. Will Cameron assure people he will follow the results on the referendum.

Yes, says Cameron. He says out means out of the single market too. He says he would say to anyone still in doubt, to anyone uncertain, don’t risk it.

Tim Farron, the Lib Dem leader, says the wealthy elite fuelling Leave will not be harmed by the interest rate rise that will follow Brexit. Would Cameron advise his Tory colleagues that there is a long-term economic plan on offer on Thursday - voting remain.

Cameron says it says volumes about the Remain campaign that the Lib Dems, Labour, the Greens and others are joining him in backing staying in the EU.

Jack Lopresti, a Conservative, says he hopes Britain will vote to leave the EU. Cameron himself said Britain could survive outside, he says.

Cameron says of course Britain can survive outside the EU. But the question is, how are we best off? On all the arguments, we are best off in, he says.

Siobhain McDonagh, the Labour MP, says M&S workers are due to face an effective pay cut because of the “national living wage”.

Cameron says he does not know about the situation at M&S. But he wants to see pay go up, not down. M&S won’t attract good staff if they cut pay.

Cameron says we will enhance the power of Britain by staying in the EU.

Alasdair McDonnell, the SDLP MP, says the SDLP is backing a Remain vote. The return of a hard border with Ireland would be bad for Northern Ireland.

Cameron says is the UK votes to stay in, we know what the situation is. If we were to leave, and make a big issue about borders, then there would be a land border with the EU in Ireland. You would need new border controls between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Or you would have to have controls on people leaving Northern Ireland and coming to the mainland. We can avoid these risks by voting to stay, he says.

Robert Jenrick, a Conservative, says his parents set up a manufacturing business. Manufacturers are worried. They will have to sell to the EU, but they won’t have a say in deciding EU standards.

Cameron says Jenrick is making a v good point. If you leave the EU, and don’t have say over making those rules, you lose control; you don’t gain control.

Labour’s Ruth Smeeth says EU funds have helped her constituency. Does Cameron agree that a Brexit vote would leave us picking up the pieces of a broken economy for years to come.

Cameron agree. The UK would have to spend two years leaving the EU. Then it would have to negotiate a trade deal, with could take seven years. So overall it could take a decade to get a new trade deal.

He says the potteries industry would be affected by tariffs that would be imposed.

Labour’s Carolyn Harris says leaving the EU would be too big a risk.

Cameron says he agrees. If the pound were to fall, prices would rise and the cost of holidays would rise.

David Nuttall, a Conservative, asks when the government will get net migration below 100,000.

Cameron says EU migration was in balance last in 2008. He says the government has introduced sensible ways of reducing immigration. Leaving the EU would not be a sensible way, he says.

Cameron says we need to ensure migrants are working. But we should celebrate the contribution they make.

PMQs - Snap verdict:

PMQs - Snap verdict: A peculiar PMQs, in some respects more interesting than usual, and perhaps most remarkable because Cameron seemed uncharacteristically hesitant and unfocused. Is the pressure getting to him? It would be very odd if it isn’t, although Cameron was only unfocused relative to his usual suave professionalism. It is not really a day for normal party politics and Corbyn responded to that with a series of sharp, reasonable questions that did him credit, but did not go in for the kill. His best line was the one branding the 57 Tory MPs who are opposing George Osborne as converts to anti-austerity. Cameron enjoyed that - perhaps because he has little else to smile about at the moment.

Corbyn asks about the flotilla coming up the Thames. He says EU reforms gave new powers to member states over fishing quotes. The UK government has given two thirds of them to just three companies.

Cameron says the value of the UK fishing industry has increased in recent years. No country in the world has a trade agreement with the EU that does not involve a tariff on fish.

Corbyn says the government still handed quotas over to just three companies. With just eight days to go until the referendum, Labour will be voting remain. He says Labour would oppose any post-Brexit austerity budget. Will Cameron condemn the opportunism of 57 of his MPs who voted for austerity measures but who have now have a Damescene conversion to anti-austerity.

Cameron seems to laugh before he gets up. He says on this he and Corbyn agree. When he and Corbyn agree, that really says something. Votes have consequences. If we vote out, there will be less tax receipts. We would need to address the hole in the public finances. There is only one thing worse than addressing a hole in your public finances, and that is by not addressing it. We can avoid that by voting Remain, he saus.

Corbyn says he is concerned about the expoitation of migrant workers. Will Cameron commit to outlawing agencies advertising jobs only abroad?

Cameron says he and Corbyn agree on the evils of modern slavery. The government will continue to take action to ensure that people are paid what they should be paid. He wants people to get a fair day’s pay for a fair day’s work.

Corbyn says Cameron did not answer the question. What communities need is practical solutions, like the migrant impact fund. Will Cameron agree it is a mistake to abolish that. And will he reinstate it?

Cameron says the government is looking to see if it can ban firms only advertising jobs abroad. The answer to many of these problems is to create new jobs. He says the government has a pledge in its manifesto to create a controlled migration fund. It agrees that it needs to take action to address the pressures created by immigration.

Jeremy Corbyn also offers sympathy to the relatives of those killed in Orlando. He attended a vigil to express his horror on Monday, he says.

He says three years ago there was agreement for implementation of Section 40 of the Crime and Courts Act. Cameron said three years ago MPs did too much cosying up to Murdoch. Will Cameron keep his promise and implement Leveson in full.

Cameron says the government will decide about the second stage of Leveson when all prosecutions are underway. He has met victims. People can accuse him of many things, but not cosying up to Murdoch, he says.

Corbyn says he asked about Cameron meeting phone-hacking victims. He says the Leave leaders pretend to be saviours of the NHS. Wasn’t Sarah Wollaston right to criticise them?

Cameron says he is glad Wollaston changed her mind. He says he thinks the NHS will be stronger if the UK stays in the EU.

Updated

Peter Aldous, a Conservative, says a firm has put on hold plans to build a factory in Lowestoft.

Cameron says he shares Aldous’s concern about this. Many firms come to the UK to get access to the single market. He hopes people will vote to put our place in that beyond doubt.

David Cameron starts with sending his sympathies to the families and friends of those killed in the Orlando attack. It highlights the need to fight the poisonous ideology of Daesh, he says.

And this.

This is from the Labour MP Tom Blenkinsop.

Cameron at PMQs

PMQs starts in five minutes.

There is no PMQs next week, so it is quite possible - given the rise in support for Leave in the polls - that David Cameron may have announced his resignation by the time he next faces Jeremy Corbyn across the despatch box in the Commons.

Nigel Farage has tweeted this about Bob Geldof.

Bob Geldof has pulled alongside Farage’s boat and blasted “I’m In With The In Crowd” over a rig of four ear bleedingly loud speakers before taking the mic and declaring: “Nigel, you are a fraud.”

The Leave campaigners tried to shout back: “shame on you” but were drowned out.

Geldof attacked him as “no fishermans’ friend” as Farage stood at the prow of his boat facing the other way talking to Kate Hoey, the Labour leave campaigner.

Geldof’s sonic assault successfully drowned out Farage’s broadcast interviews.

Q: 57 Tory MPs have effectively expressed no confidence in you. Would you be around to pass these measures?

Osborne says measures like this would have to be passed. He says the only thing worse than not taking action would be not taking action. People need to know this, he says.

Q: Would Labour MPs back plans like this?

Darling says one of the reasons Labour MPs are fighting for Remain so far is that they precisely want to avoid having to take choices like this.

And that’s it. The Osborne/Darling press event is over.

Osborne announces his proposed Brexit budget

The Osborne/Darling event is now on BBC News.

Q: Are you sacrificing your job to win the referendum?

Osborne says this is not about one politician and his career. This is about the future of our country. What is the point of getting involved in public life if you do not fight for what you believe in?

Darling says the impact of a Brexit vote would last for years. The government would have to face up to the consequences of this and take some “pretty unpleasant action”.

Q: How quickly would you have to introduce these measures?

Within the next couple of months, says Osborne.

He says the government would have to show the world it had a serious plan for addressing these problems.

Q: Would Labour support these measures?

Darling says MPs would have to take difficult choices.

The exact choices would be a matter for the chancellor of the day.

But there is no one who could avoid the consequences of this.

If you create a mess, you have to clear it up. Far better not to create a mess in the first place.

The Brexit debate has taken to the waves. As we wait for Nigel Farage to join a flotilla of fishing vessels campaigning for Brexit by sailing upstream to the Palace of Westminster, a smaller fleet of Remain campaigners have embarked on vessels to come alongside, I think that’s the nautical term, and shout them down. Farage’s flotilla of about six vessels tethered near the north bank of the Thames near London Bridge l were just buzzed by the Sarpedon pleasure cruiser stuffed with black flag waving and jeering In campaigners and followed by more on a couple of inflatable ribs.

This is what Alistair Darling, the Labour former chancellor, has been saying at the Brexit budget event with George Osborne.

(Darling clearly has not seen what John McDonnell has said this morning - see 10.36am.)

Rolls-Royce has written to its staff saying it wants Britain to stay in the EU.

Here’s the Guardian’s story.

And here is Angela Eagle, the shadow business secretary, commenting on it.

This is yet further evidence of the benefits membership of the largest single market brings to British workers and businesses. Nine out of ten economists agree that Britain is better off in and that a vote to leave the EU is a threat to jobs and the economy.

Rolls-Royce is a world-leading engineering company and employs 23,000 staff in the UK. This letter to staff makes clear that the uncertainty of a vote to leave the EU would be unsettling for the company.

And back to the Osborne/Darling announcement.

More from the flotilla wars. This is the scene from Bob Geldof’s boat.

And here is Steven Woolfe, Ukip’s financial affairs spokesman, on George Osborne’s proposed pro-Brexit budget.

If George Osborne thinks he will still be chancellor in the event of a Brexit, he is living in cloud cuckoo land.

His conduct during this campaign – culminating in Project Fear’s nuclear bomb today – has been nothing short of disgraceful. Given this fact, his threat to hold a punishment emergency budget which promises tax rises and extra austerity should be treated with the contempt it deserves.

As George Osborne announces his hyphothetical Brexit budget, Tory MPs continue to criticise him.

This is from Owen Paterson, the former environment secretary, who is one of the 57 Tory MPs who has said they would vote against Osborne’s plans.

The Remain campaign have reached panic stations. They have lost all the major arguments and have now resorted to scaring the British people. They are taking us for fools.

If the Chancellor thinks he could pass such a punishment budget through the House of Commons he is utterly delusional. I wouldn’t hesitate about voting against it.

Here’s another extract from the Brexit budget.

Here is the key chart from the document.

Journalists have been handed the Brexit budget.

George Osborne is about to make his announcement about his proposed post-Brexit emergency budget shortly.

David Cameron is trying to arrange a joint pro-EU appearance with his predecessors Gordon Brown, Tony Blair and Sir John Major, Christian Today reports. The story by James Macintyre (who used to be the New Statesman’s political correspondent) says: “Plans are well developed for the prime minister to appear on a platform next week alongside Gordon Brown, Tony Blair and Sir John Major.”

But the Mirror’s Mikey Smith is with Bob Geldof on a rival Remain flottila.

Here are some pictures from the Brexit flotilla coming up the Thames.

And here is a statement from Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, about the flotilla.

The governing principle of the common fisheries policy is that of “equal access to a common resource”. Fish stock is that should be within the UK’s internationally recognised territorial waters are now shared our European Partners. This has led to a 60% drop in oversized landings and the loss of tens of thousands of jobs in our industry.

There are now many harbours without a single commercial vessel, not satisfied with that the EU is now regulating our recreational sea anglers. Under and EU regulation issued in December no anglers may take a single bass for tea.This is now leading to a loss of jobs in our charter angling fleet.

Compare and contrast all of this with Norway who control all fishing stocks up to two hundred miles within the North Sea and has a booming commercial and angling tourism industry. EU membership has destroyed our industry.

Today’s flotilla is not a celebration or a party but a full throttled protest. We want our waters back!

It is an opposition day in the Commons, which means the afternoon has been set aside for a debate on a motion tabled by Labour. Their motion, tabled by Jeremy Corbyn and others, is about the economic benefits of membership of the EU. This is what it says:

That this House believes that the UK needs to stay in the EU because it offers the best framework for trade, manufacturing, employment rights and cooperation to meet the challenges the UK faces in the world in the twenty-first century; and notes that tens of billions of pounds worth of investment and millions of jobs are linked to the UK’s membership of the EU, the biggest market in the world.

McDonnell says Labour would never support Osborne's proposed post-Brexit emergency budget

John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, said the party would never support such an emergency budget and disowned Alistair Darling’s backing for the approach.

This maybe a natural Tory approach but no Labour chancellor would respond to an economic shock in this manner. And neither did Alistair Darling in 2008. Any credible economist would tell you that raising taxes or cutting spending or both in response to an economic shock is the wrong thing to do.

It’s deeply worryingly that this suggests the current Tory chancellor thinks this is a sensible response. But it highlights what is on offer under a Tory Brexit as George Osborne is only saying what those Tories campaigning for a Tory Brexit truly believe deep down.

Sturgeon warns Brexit will lead to 'rightwing Tory takeover' of UK

Nicola Sturgeon has warned that a Brexit vote next week will lead to “a rightwing Tory takeover” of the UK, allowing a “power grab” by Conservatives who believe David Cameron and George Osborne are moderates.

Urging remain supporters to “vote in big numbers” next week, the first minister has said a Brexit vote would leave Scotland “vulnerable to the most rightwing Tory government in modern history.”

Her message also appeared aimed at the third of Scottish National party voters thought to back the leave campaign, which is now seeing a clear lead in the latest UK opinion polls.

“If we leave Europe, they will take it as a green light to scrap workers’ rights and employment protection, slash public spending as part of their ideologically driven austerity obsession – and would target Scotland for extra cuts,” she added.

“Scotland needs to send as strong a message as possible that we reject this right-wing Tory agenda entirely – and the only way to do that is for people to vote in big numbers to stay in Europe. In doing so, we can also help the progressive case across the UK.”

Here is a Guardian video explaining some of the EU referendum lies, myths and half-truths.

EU referendum: lies, myths and half-truths

Unemployment falls to 8-year low

It is not all bad news from George Osborne today.

And here is the top of the Press Association story about the unemployment figures - although PA are saying unemployment is at its lowest level for eight years, not for 11 years.

Unemployment has fallen to an eight-year low as the numbers in work continues to reach record levels, new figures have shown.

The jobless total was cut by 20,000 in the quarter to April to 1.67m, the lowest since the spring of 2008.

But the number of women out of work was 12,000 higher at 779,000, the Office for National Statistics reported.

The final set of official labour market figures before the EU referendum next week also showed that 31.5 million people are in work - the highest since records began in 1971.

Farage says Osborne's claims 'not credible'

And here is some Ukip reaction to George Osborne.

From Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader

From Suzanne Evans

Here is ITV’s Robert Peston on George Osborne’s stance.

This is probably true, although the idea that Osborne had any chance of merrily carrying on a chancellor if Britain voted to leave the EU was implausible anyway. Although many senior Leave figures say publicly that they would want David Cameron to stay on as prime minister if Leave wins, in reality almost everyone thinks he would resign before the end of the year. And, with Leave winning and Cameron gone, Osborne would be out too.

Here is Jonathan Portes, a former senior government economist and now a fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, on George Osborne’s proposals.

Osborne on Today - Verdict from the Twitter commentariat

This is what journalists are saying about George Osborne’s Today interview, and about his post-Brexit emergency budget proposal generally.

From PoliticsHome’s Kevin Schofield

From the Telegraph’s Allison Pearson

From the Financial Times’ Chris Giles

From the Financial Times’ Stefan Stern

From Paul Mason, a Guardian columnist

From Sky’s Faisal Islam

From the Daily Mail’s Jason Groves

From the BBC’s Andrew Neil

From the Times’ Michael Savage

From ConservativeHome’s Paul Goodman

From the Daily Mail’s Isabel Oakeshott

Here is Robert Oxley, head of media for Vote Leave, on George Osborne’s proposed post-Brexit emergency budget.

Oxley is referring to the way that, when faced with an economic crisis in 2008, the then chancellor Alistair Darling increased borrowing and cut VAT by 2.5% to stimulate the economy.

Gisela Stuart says Labour would never back Osborne's proposed post-Brexit emergency budget

Here is the Labour MP Gisela Stuart, chair of Vote Leave, on George Osborne’s claims about the need for a tax-raising emergency budget after a vote to leave the EU. She said:

I simply can’t believe that Alistair Darling and the Labour party would support an Osborne punishment budget that is designed to hit the poorest hardest. George Osborne’s reckless and shameful proposals would, if not blocked, cut the NHS, cut pensions and cut funding for schools and I will never vote for this and nor do I think will any of my Labour colleagues.

I hope the Labour party will now make clear that these desperate proposals would never have our support, and are nothing more than another sorry attempt to scare the British people into supporting George Osborne, David Cameron, and their rich friends who want us to remain in the EU.

Duncan Smith says Osborne's post-Brexit budget warning most irresponsible thing he's seen from a chancellor

Iain Duncan Smith, the Conservative former work and pensions secretary and one of the 57 Tory MPs who has signed the letter saying they would vote down George Osborne’s proposed post-Brexit emergency budget (see 8.29am) has told LBC that Osborne’s warning is the most irresponsible thing he has seen from a chancellor.

George Osborne's Today interview - Summary

Here are the main points from George Osborne’s Today interview.

  • Osborne dismisses suggestions that the statement from 57 Tory MPs this morning (see 8.29am) meant that the emergency tax-raising budget, which he is saying today would be necessary in the event of Brexit, would never be passed. He said in practice his party would pass this sort of legislation.

No Conservatives want to raise taxes, least of all me. But equally Conservatives understand, and indeed I suspect many Labour politicians understand, you cannot have chaos in your public finances. You have to deal with the hole that would emerge if we quit the EU.

He also pointed out that Tory MPs voted to raise VAT in 2010.

  • He rejected claims that he was scaremongering, and that the emergency tax-raising measures would not prove necessary.

The point is the county does not have a plan if we quit the EU. We would wake up, in just over a week’s time, with no plan for our country, with financial instability, with year’s of uncertainty. And you have to cut your cloth accordingly. The country would not be able to afford the size of the public services we have at the moment and we would have to increase taxes. That is the reality of a country that is not just immediately poorer, because of the uncertainty and the financial markets, but for decades ahead would be doing less trade with its key partners, its key allies, and the rest of the world.

  • He said the fall in sterling and share prices showed that his warnings about what might happen to the economy in the event of Brexit were justified. It was not just that bodies like the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the National Institute for Economic and Social Research were saying Brexit would harm the economy, he said.

Just look at the people voting with their own money. They are not British people. They are investors in Britain. All around the world, sterling is falling, money is coming out of our stock market. You have got big companies like Rolls-Royce warning their workforce. You’ve got big property developers saying people aren’t buying homes. You’ve got small businesses worried about their future. This isn’t warnings just from a Conservative chancellor. This is real money out there in the real world.

  • He said that Brexit might be fine for “the very richest”, but that it would be bad for people on low or average incomes.

Brexit might be for the very richest in our country. But it is the people on lower and middle incomes who will be affected, it is the people with job insecurity who will lose their jobs. They are the people who will pay the price for this enormous leap in the dark.

  • He said the UK would not be able to rejoin the EU if it left.

And by the way, when we walk through that door next Thursday, there is no coming back. We are not going to be rejoining the European Union in years to come when we think we have made a mistake. It will be a one-way exit, and that is going to live with us for decades to come.

The short answer is no, because we have a plan and the plan is to restrict the welfare that people have when they come to this country.

Vote Leave accuses Osborne of threatening to 'vandalise the economy'

And here is Matthew Elliott, the Vote Leave chief executive, on the statement from the 57 Tory MPs.

George Osborne’s reckless teenage temper tantrum has proved a step too far. Threatening to vandalise the economy has led to his MPs effectively declaring no confidence in him. The prime minister must reflect on the failure of his appalling scare tactics and stop undermining the British economy for his own political interests.

57 Tory MPs say they would vote against Osborne's 'absurd' emergency budget plans

Here is the statement signed today by 57 Tory MPs saying they would vote against George Osborne’s proposed post-Brexit emergency budget. It has been issued by Vote Leave.

It says:

We find it incredible that the chancellor could seriously be threatening to renege on so many manifesto pledges. It is absurd to say that if people vote to take back control from the EU that he would want to punish them in this way. We do not believe that he would find it possible to get support in parliament for these proposals to cut the NHS, our police forces and our schools.

If the chancellor is serious then we cannot possibly allow this to go ahead. It would be unnecessary, wrong and a rejection of the platform on which we all stood. If he were to proceed with these proposals, the chancellor’s position would become untenable.

This is a blatant attempt to talk down the market and the country. The chancellor risks doing damage to the British economy in his bid to win this political campaign.

And here is the list of the 57 MPs. It does not include government ministers backing Vote Leave, or Boris Johnson.

  1. Iain Duncan Smith
  2. Liam Fox
  3. Cheryl Gillan
  4. David Jones
  5. Owen Paterson
  6. John Redwood
  7. Sir Gerald Howarth
  8. Tim Loughton
  9. Crispin Blunt
  10. Sir William Cash
  11. Bernard Jenkin
  12. Julian Lewis
  13. Adam Afriyie
  14. Nigel Adams
  15. Lucy Allan
  16. Steve Baker
  17. Bob Blackman
  18. Peter Bone
  19. Andrew Bridgen
  20. David Burrowes
  21. Maria Caulfield
  22. Christopher Chope
  23. Chris Davies
  24. Philip Davies
  25. David TC Davies
  26. Nadine Dorries
  27. Steve Double
  28. Richard Drax
  29. Nigel Evans
  30. Michael Fabricant
  31. Marcus Fysh
  32. Chris Green
  33. Rebecca Harris
  34. Gordon Henderson
  35. Philip Hollobone
  36. Adam Holloway
  37. Kwasi Kwarteng
  38. Jonathan Lord
  39. Craig Mackinlay
  40. Anne Main
  41. Karl McCartney
  42. Nigel Mills
  43. Anne Marie Morris
  44. Sheryl Murray
  45. David Nuttall
  46. Matthew Offord
  47. Andrew Percy
  48. Tom Pursglove
  49. Jacob Rees-Mogg
  50. Andrew Rosindell
  51. Henry Smith
  52. Derek Thomas
  53. Anne Marie Trevelyan
  54. Martin Vickers
  55. David Warburton
  56. Bill Wiggin
  57. William Wragg

Q: You are trying to scare people. This is a classic case of Project Fear.

Osborne says look at what investors are doing. Sterling is falling. Money is being taken out of the stock market. This is real money, in the real world.

And that’s it. The interview is over.

I will post a summary shortly.

Q: How will you get EU migration down?

Osborne says the government is addressing abuse of the welfare system. It will be harder for EU migrants to claim benefits. And the government is doing what it can to promote economic growth in eurozone economies.

Q: But 57 of your own MPs are saying they would vote against your emergency budget?

Osborne says the Today programme was first broadcast in 1957. He doubts there has been a time since then when a Tory and a Labour chancellor have agreed on what might have to happen.

Q: But with 57 MPs voting against, you could not pass this budget.

Osborne says he does not want to raise taxes. Alistair Darling agrees taxes would have to go up. Conservatives don’t like raising taxes. But they would have to fix the public finances.

Q: You would not be able to get this through the Commons.

Osborne says the Conservative government would do what was necessary.

Q: Voters may not believe you. Or they may think this is worth it. Is there anything more the government can offer on freedom of movement?

Osborne says it is all very well for people who are wealthy to say it does not matter if the country is worse off. Osborne says he cares about that. Brexit might be for the very richest in this country. But it is not for others.

He says voting to leave would be a “one-way exit”. Britain would not be able to reapply.

Q: The Guardian is reporting today that Number 10 is thinking of doing more on free movement. Is there anything new you will offer?

The short answer is no, says Osborne.

He says the government has plans to bring down immigration.

Q: But the economy was weak before the EU referendum campaign started.

Osborne says the country does face economic challenges. But cutting off your links with your closest trading allies is not the answer to any of those problems.

He says lots of businesses are delaying decisions before the referendum.

And today Leave are saying it would take four years to negotiate withdrawal. That is being optimistic. But during those four years there would be uncertainty.

Q: If you implemented this emergency budget, you would be breaking your law blocking tax increases.

Osborne says the government would have to to increase taxes. That is the reality. The country would not just be immediately poorer. It would be poorer for decades ahead.

If you are trading less, there is less money coming into the exchequer.

George Osborne's Today interview

Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Claire.

George Osborne is being interviewed on the Today programme.

Q: How can you know what would happen if we leave the EU?

Osborne says we have the weight of expert opinion. There are reports from the IFS and the NIESR.

Q: But this has never happened before.

Osborne says, listen to the market. And listen to what Rolls-Royce is saying today.

Updated

Sky News is reporting that 57 Conservative MPs say they would vote down a post-Brexit emergency budget of the kind dangled by George Osborne today:

Some 57 Tory MPs have written a letter saying they will vote down the Brexit budget, which would contain £30bn of tax hikes and spending cuts, signalling a significant escalation in the Conservative civil war over the EU.

The source of the 57 figure isn’t clear, but a number of Tory MPs, including Liam Fox and Steve Baker, have already spoken out against the chancellor’s announcement.

Chris Grayling, the leader of the House of Commons, also told Sky News this morning that he did not accept the £30bn figure cited by Osborne.

Updated

The British Medical Journal has published an editorial – penned by editor in chief Fiona Godlee and colleagues – on why it thinks doctors should vote remain. The authors acknowledge that this is “an unusual move” for the journal:

Some readers may wonder why the BMJ is intervening in a political debate. We think this issue transcends politics and has such huge ramifications for health and society that it is important to state our case …

It has become increasingly obvious that the arguments for remaining in the EU are overwhelming, and that now is not the time for balance.

The editorial says the leave campaign claims about the NHS “are simply wrong”:

Its constant claim that the UK sends £350m to the EU every week has been blown out of the water … But perhaps the most laughable untruth is that the NHS would be safer in their hands …

Those who want the UK to leave are not unlike the antivaccine lobbyists who, having forgotten the evils of measles, mumps and rubella, turn to the alleged harms of the vaccines themselves. Likewise Brexit campaigners have forgotten the evils of virulent nationalism because Europe has succeeded in containing them.

Morning briefing

Good morning and welcome to our daily EU referendum coverage.

I’m kicking things off with the morning briefing to set you up for the day ahead and steering the live blog until Andrew Sparrow takes his seat. Do come and chat in the comments below or find me on Twitter @Claire_Phipps.

The big picture

So much for letting the sunshine in as we edge towards the final week of campaigning. Wednesday’s dial is set firmly to doom as chancellor George Osborne says Brexit could rip open a £30bn hole in the UK’s public finances. At an event this morning Osborne will appear alongside remain pal Alistair Darling to ramp up warnings that the Treasury would be forced to fill the gap though higher income tax, alcohol and petrol duties; and by slashing funding to the NHS, schools and defence:

Far from freeing up money to spend on public services as the leave campaign would like you to believe, quitting the EU would mean less money. Billions less. It’s a lose-lose situation for British families and we shouldn’t risk it.

Osborne will say this could mean a 2p rise in the basic rate of income tax to 22%, a 3p rise in the higher rate to 43%, and a 5% rise in inheritance tax to 45p.

Some leave supporters reacted angrily, with Conservative backbencher Liam Fox denouncing what he described as a “punishment budget”:

It would damage the chancellor’s credibility and would be putting his own position in jeopardy.

I think the British public would react adversely to such a threat based on the chancellor being afraid they will vote the wrong way in his opinion.

Some commentators weren’t too concerned:

The official Vote Leave campaign pointed out that Osborne’s doomsday plan would necessitate him breaking seven pledges from last year’s election manifesto.

But Darling will say that others outside the UK are already recognising the potential risks:

For the first time ever, we saw German government bonds offering a negative yield – in other words, investors are paying Germany to look after their money as they seek safe havens.

As this Guardian report spells out:

The impact on shares in London and across the continent was dramatic as stock markets tumbled and one analyst declared that “the stench of Brexit was stalking the streets of the City”. The pound also tumbled 1.2% to below $1.41, its lowest for two months.

Against that, Vote Leave (still insisting it isn’t an alternative government?) offers its blueprint for a post-23 June future:

  • limit the powers of the European courts.
  • switch money saved from EU contributions to the NHS.
  • end automatic right for EU citizens to come to the UK.
  • begin efforts to secure a trade deal with Europe by 2020.

On the campaign’s other main theme, immigration, there are signs of a change of heart/panic (delete as appropriate) among remainers, with reports that Downing Street is considering a last-ditch pledge to reconsider the free movement of workers within the EU.

Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, yesterday joined Ed Balls in saying more limits on migration would be on the table even if remain wins through next week.

And in the midst of all this, Nigel Farage will come sailing up the Thames at the head of his pro-Brexit flotilla. I’ll leave you to check the weather forecast and your personal preferences to determine whether this one is filed under sunshine or gloom.

You should also know:

Poll position

The FT poll of polls today pegs leave on 47% and remain on 44%.

A TNS poll yesterday followed recent trends by finding leave ahead, this time by 47% to 40%.

Diary

  • At 11am George Osborne and his No 11 predecessor Alistair Darling appear together to deliver that budget warning.
  • From 11am to 2.30pm, Nigel Farage and co take their flotilla of protest along the Thames.
  • At noon it’s the last PMQs before the referendum.
  • This evening at 6.45pm Michael Gove is on the BBC in Nottingham for a Question Time EU referendum special with David Dimbleby.

Read these

In the Economist, Bagehot says remainers should not give up hope just yet:

In such moments – when faced by a choice between an imperfect status quo and a leap into the dark – Britons have, in the past, rarely chosen the latter. To defy that tradition, Leave has to disguise a vote to quit the EU as the safer, more small-c conservative option. Yet here too, the polling (judging by YouGov’s tracker) suggests that the campaign has failed.

For all its bogus claims that Turkey will soon join the EU, I have yet to see proof that it has persuaded voters that the dangers of continuing in the club are greater. That most voters rightly consider the choice before them on June 23rd more significant than that at a general election suggests that they will be particularly risk-averse next week.

Dutch daily newspaper Algemeen Dagblad has issued a plea to British voters: please stay.

Nobody in Europe appreciates your culture more than we do. The Beatles, Bridget Jones, One Direction, EastEnders, Brideshead Revisited, we love it all. Many of us know Monty Python’s Dead Parrot sketch by heart.

We admire your stiff upper lip. And every year we remember, with the greatest respect, all those who have fallen to liberate our country.

Now you are thinking of leaving us. Sailing out your floating country towards distant shores, so says your largest newspaper, the Sun. Talking as a Dutch uncle, we have to tell you this is not a good idea.

We not only love you, we need you. Who else supports us in keeping some common sense on this turbulent continent of ours? An EU without the UK would be like tea without milk. Bitter. So please, stay. Stay with us.

Baffling claim of the day

The Sun front page, refusing to let up after its endorsement of leave yesterday, now warns of “nasty Euro moths” – a “massive swarm of super-moths from Europe”. The paper urges readers:

Vote Leave to protect our country … and our cabbages from nasty crop-ravaging Euro moths set to hit the UK.

Brexit would definitely stop the diamondback moths – as they’re technically known – coming over here and taking our cabbages, because the British Isles would be towed further away from the mainland continent. Also the moths would not have passports.

Celebrity endorsement of the day

The day in a tweet

If today were a novel ...

It would be Three Men in a Boat, a comic tale of a Thames-based escapade, with plenty of pubs along the way. Plus, as the Observer’s list of 100 best novels put it, “an unconscious elegy for imperial Britain”.

And another thing

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Updated

 

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