Hilary Osborne, Patrick Collinson, Rupert Jones and Jill Treanor 

EU referendum: issues savers and homeowners need to consider

With economists warning Brexit could cause the pound tumble and interest rates to rise, here are some of things worth considering before you vote
  
  

Remain campaign brochures on a table
What would Brexit mean for your finances? Photograph: Ian Forsyth/Getty Images

A vote to leave the European Union in the referendum on 23 June could cause the pound to plunge and interest rates to rise, according to some economists. Here are some of the issues that savers, homeowners and investors should consider before voting.

What would a leave vote mean for interest rates and my mortgage?

George Osborne has argued that a vote for a Brexit will mean a rise in interest rates from a record low of 0.5%. However, some market watchers believe interest rates will fall because the Bank of England will be forced to stimulate the economy in the event of a leave vote. Economists at JP Morgan forecast borrowing costs could fall to zero by August if there is a vote to leave.

In the run-up to the vote, five- and 10-year fixed-rate mortgages have been at their lowest ever level. This is because government bonds are seeing a drop in yields – or the interest rate they pay out to investors – as the City searches for havens for its cash in the event of a leave vote. If bonds become a hot ticket among investors and rise in price, then yields fall.

Ray Boulger, of mortgage brokers John Charcol, said the decline in yields has yet to be passed on fully so a remain vote should not necessarily lead to a sharp increase in mortgage rates.

Should I buy my travel money now?

A vote to leave could cause the pound to plummet. In February, investment bank Goldman Sachs claimed the value of sterling could fall by up to 20%.

If such predictions are correct, holidaymakers heading to Spain and other eurozone countries might find the pound has less spending power than it did last summer. Last August £1 bought about €1.42; on Monday it was about €1.29, though that’s better than €1.26 last week.

Anyone worried about the pound plunging, can buy currency now or load money on to a prepaid currency card.

Will cash machines operate if there is a vote for Brexit?

The authorities are keen to avoid a rerun of the queues that formed around Northern Rock in September 2007 if there is a sudden panic among customers. ATMs will be full of cash. The banks will hope they do not suffer any IT outages that could create the impression there is not enough money in the system. Electronic payments are also more popular than they were during the previous crisis so any sudden need for cash should be reduced.

Will my savings be safe?

Money in bank accounts, savings accounts and cash Isas is protected up to the value of £75,000 by an EU directive. There is no need to withdrawcash from any bank or building society covered by this deposit guarantee, whereas cash stored under the mattress is rarely insured.

The Bank of England is likely to enter the market to provide liquidity – making sure banks have enough cash – if an exit vote prompts market mayhem and investors attempt to pull cash out of the UK. Indeed, the bank has been offering money to institutions via three pre-announced money market operations, where funds are offered to UK banks.

Will my plans to buy or sell a house be in trouble?

A range of organisations have predicted a Brexit vote would lead to a fall in property prices, and there is anecdotal evidence that many buyers and sellers have put their plans on hold until Friday at least. Zoopla, the property website, has warned that Brexit would reverse the gains in house prices made over the past five years, citing Treasury research.

For investors looking to make money out of property, this will be bad news. But homebuyers should look to the longer term. UK housebuilding is not keeping up with demand, and unless mortgage rates rocket, that could mean upwards pressure on prices resumes once the dust has settled.

I own a property abroad. Should I prepare to sell it?

Currency movements will be the biggest concern for overseas homeowners whose holiday property is in an EU country. A sharp fall in the pound against the euro will leave overseas home owners better off in sterling terms, should they sell after a Brexit vote. But some experts have suggested British borrowers may find it harder to get a mortgage abroad if the UK leaves the EU and some will worry that, as non-EU nationals, they will be treated differently in tax terms. However, there are bilateral tax agreements in place between the UK and other European countries that are not directly linked to Britain’s EU membership.

What should small business owners do?

The payments system – from cash machines to direct debit - will still be operating so shopkeepers will be able to function as usual. Businesses relying on exports or imports should not be impacted immediately until the UK invokes article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which puts a two-year deadline on Britain leaving the EU and arranging a new trade relationship.

Should I sell any shares I own?

No one, apart from hyper-speculative day traders, recommends this. The FTSE surged on Monday as polls suggested Britain would remain in the union, but could just as easily lurch backwards again. Shares in housebuilders and banks appear to be the most volatile; if you own shares in, say, Lloyds Banking Group, and you are convinced Brexit is on the cards, you may want to sell. But over the longer term that may look silly: big investment groups think equity markets are relatively cheap, with lots of money sitting on the sidelines waiting to be spent once the result has been digested. If it is a Remain vote, there could be a “relief rally” as money is pumped into shares.

Should I consider cashing in my pension?

Given that pension planning operates on a 20 or 30 year timeline, immediately cashing in a pension pot would be a rash and unnecessary move . Anyone with a public-sector pension scheme, where the payouts are guaranteed, is not affected. For those whose pension pots are invested in the stock market, the chancellor has warned that Brexit could wipe £32,000 off the average pensioner’s wealth. Leave campaigners say such warnings are wrong.

Pension expert Tom McPhail at Hargreaves Lansdown said there are likely to be gains and losses. Miserably low rates for annuities – the regular income paid out of a pension pot – could move up if interest rates were raised to defend sterling. But if the currency is plunging, the underlying value of pension pots will decline.


 

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