Greece’s banks will face accelerated stress tests which will be completed after the summer, Reuters is reporting.
The scrutiny by European and Greek regulators are designed to uncover the banks’ capital shortfalls and reveal how much the recapitalisation of the sector will cost.
Meanwhile:
#Syriza party conference likely to be held September 4~6: source | #Greece
— Yannis Koutsomitis (@YanniKouts) August 7, 2015
The party’s central committee voted last week for a congress to discuss its strategy. Some hardliners had wanted the current talks with creditors to be suspended and the party conference to be held in August, but prime minister Alexis Tsipras won the day.
On that note, it’s time to close up for the day. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back on Monday.
#Greece "nearly ready" for agreement with lenders, says Dep PM Dragasakis after cabinet meeting. Talks continue in Athens tomorrow
— Nick Malkoutzis (@NickMalkoutzis) August 7, 2015
Ratings agency DBRS has just confirmed Germany’s AAA rating, with a stable outlook.
European markets end lower after US jobs data
With the latest US job report suggesting there is nothing substantial to stop the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September - the first hike for nine years - the dollar strengthened but equities edged lower. Elsewhere investors were still cautious as talks between Greece and its creditors continued, with the hope of agreeing a third bailout before 20 August, when the country has to repay around €3.2bn to the European Central Bank. The closing scores showed:
- The FTSE 100 finished down 0.41% or 28.6 points at 6718.49
- Germany’s Dax dipped 0.81% to 11,490.83
- France’s Cac closed 0.72% lower at 5154.75
- Italy’s FTSE MIB fell 0.45% to 23,705
- Spain’s Ibex ended 0.87% lower at 11,178.2
- As reported earlier, the Athens market added 1.45% to 676.33
On Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently down 114 points or 0.65%.
Second day of gains for the Athens Exchange. General Index +1.45%, FTSE banks -1.7%, NBG +1.2%, Alpha -2.4%, Eurobank -8,2%, Piraeus +0.7%
— Yannis Koutsomitis (@YanniKouts) August 7, 2015
Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras has kindly tweeted a link to a summary of his meetings during his trip to Egypt:
A recap of my meetings during my recent trip to Egypt for the inauguration of the Suez Canal #Greece http://t.co/N2viOPHjAn
— Alexis Tsipras (@tsipras_eu) August 7, 2015
On the talks with the French president, the summary goes:
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and French President François Hollande held a very cordial meeting on the sidelines of the inaugural ceremony for the Suez Canal.
The two leaders agreed that the terms of the July 12th agreement must be observed and that the negotiations can, and must, be concluded immediately after August 15th.
They also discussed the Fund, as provided for in the July 12th agreement, for the most optimal and beneficial utilization of public property. In addition, they agreed to take all necessary actions to enable the Greek economy to recover from the effects of the banking crisis.
The Greek parliament is expected to vote on a third bailout package on 18 August, Reuters is reporting, quoting a goverment spokeswoman.
Only if there is something to vote on of course...
Updated
One of the problems facing Greece is tax evasion, and the clampdown appears to be continuing:
Greek tax inspectors uncover extensive case of tax evasion by state employees of Knossos archeological site in Crete http://t.co/DGL7BEtLRn
— Stathis Kalyvas (@SKalyvas) August 7, 2015
Greek banks lose 58% of their value since Monday
The Athens stock market has closed for the day 1.45% higher, but banking shares have lost earlier gains to end lower. The banking index is down 1.67% after rebounding 17.8% on Thursday from its 63% decline in the first three days since the market reopened on Monday.
It has been quite a week, with the overall index losing 15.2% since Monday and the banking index slumping 58% amid concerns the sector needs recapitalising to the tune of €15bn.
Greece’s small co-operative banks which lend to small firms should also be recapitalised along with the country’s major banks, said finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos. In a statement he said:
The government’s intention is to strengthen the co-operative banks. With this aim, the government’s proposals include the co-operative banks in the recapitalisation of the banking system.
Greece’s creditors estimate the banking system may need between €10bn and €15bn in new funds.
(Quote from Reuters)
Back with Greece and senior EU officials will hold a conference call late on Friday to discuss progress in the talks about a third bailout for the beleaguered country.
Recent comments from Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras and various EU luminaries suggested progress was being made, with hopes of an agreement before Greece is due to pay €3.2bn to the European Central Bank on 20 August.
Germany, however, appears to want another bridging loan for the country to give more time for the talks.
As for tonight’s telephone conversation, EC spokeswoman Mina Andreeva said she did not expect any particular decisions from the meeting, according to Reuters. But negotiations had begun on drafting a memorandum of understanding on a loan agreement.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has now lost more than 5% since its recent peak in May, as this graph shows:
On Wall Street, the market has opened slightly lower in the wake of the US jobs figures.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down around 50 points in early trading, heading for its seventh loss in a row.
European markets are also weaker, with Germany’s Dax down 0.47%, France’s Cac down 0.38% and the FTSE 100 0.22% lower.
More on the fact that the growth in jobs has mainly been in full time employment:
Meanwhile, your monthly reminder that virtually all the growth in this recovery has been in full-time employment. pic.twitter.com/rgDyo93OEL
— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) August 7, 2015
Markets now almost fully pricing in one #Fed rate hike this year - but #FOMC midpoint projection is two #USD #NFP
— Nick Kounis (@nickkounis) August 7, 2015
Given the Fed’s recent comments, the day’s job report clearly points to a rate rise next month, according to Harm Bandholz, chief US economist at UniCredit Research:
The latest FOMC statement highlighted that the Fed in late July only wanted to see “some further” improvement in the labor market before being ready to finally start the normalization of short-term interest rates. And Atlanta Fed President Lockhart told the Wall Street Journal earlier this week that the bar for not moving in September is pretty high. As outlined above, there can be no doubt in our view that today’s employment report does indeed represent “some further” improvement in the labor market – if not more more. It, therefore, further strengthens our view for the first rate hike in September.
Marc Ostwald, strategist at ADM Investor Services International Limited says:
In days of yore, this largely “surprise free” labour report would have been a genuine “nothing to see here” report that allowed the trading fraternity to square their books for the weekend, and head for the hills.
Unfortunately it says labour demand remains solid, if unspectacular, but does not provide that “high bar” to rate ‘lift-off’ in September which Lockhart referenced, in fact it reinforces expectations for a move.”
Sterling has hit a three-week low of $1.5453 against the dollar.
So we're all in agreement; as long as it doesn't snow in August in the US we're on for a rate hike?
— World First (@World_First) August 7, 2015
US jobs recovery: full-time (not part-time) jobs being created, somewhat in contrast to UK https://t.co/Xv3s0IkT4M
— Linda Yueh (@lindayueh) August 7, 2015
“US payroll gains solid rather than spectacular” - says Paul Ashworth, US economist at Capital Economics.
Still no signs of a meaningful acceleration in wage growth - but Yellen has said that is no a pre-condition for raising interest rates
— Capital Economics (@CapEconUS) August 7, 2015
Wall Street futures extended their losses after the non-farm payrolls data, suggesting US stock markets will open nearly slightly lower in about half an hour.
GBP holding up well in aftermath of payrolls. Only 2 central banks in this club...
— World First (@World_First) August 7, 2015
On path to rate rise, #ParityWatch
— Francine Lacqua (@flacqua) August 7, 2015
Updated
“Solid” is how many describe the US jobs market report, even though the headline number missed forecasts. Chris Williamson, chief economist at economic survey firm Markit, says:
Non-farm payrolls came in just shy of forecasts, but it’s still yet another solid employment report. With the Fed’s decision on the timing of the first rate rise ‘data dependent’, today’s report does nothing to discourage the belief that a September hike is very much on the table, albeit by no means a done deal.
The data highlight how the labour market continues to tighten alongside a steady improvement in the economy, auguring for rates to rise later this year, and possibly as early as September.
Survey data indicate that the pace of economic growth at the start of the third quarter was similar to the robust annualised 2.3% rate of increase seen in the second quarter.
Although revisions to GDP data suggest the recovery had been weaker than previously thought in previous years, policymakers will be more focused on the fact that slack has being substantially eroded, with the economy approaching full employment. Furthermore, the downturn in the economy at the start of the year has been revised away, removing nagging doubts about the robustness of growth that will have deterred policymakers from hiking rates.
But not so fast, Williamson, warns, a September rate hike is by no means a done deal, and any tightening cycle is likely to be “very modest” – with low inflation and cooling growth creating powerful arguments against.
Core inflationary pressures remain weak amid disappointingly modest wage growth and falling commodity prices. Although wage growth picked up in July, it is hardly surging. Average pay is just 2.1% higher than a year ago.
Oil and other commodities have meanwhile seen renewed falls in recent months, and slumping emerging market growth suggests they could remain low by historical standards, reducing the Fed’s inflation projections.
The stronger dollar is also in effect doing some of the Fed’s job in terms of tightening, curbing the pace of economic growth via lower exports and reducing inflationary pressures by cutting import costs.”
Updated
Yet again, more unemployed workers left labor fore than found jobs in July. #jobsday pic.twitter.com/WmVMYI2qsg
— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) August 7, 2015
The jobless rate stayed at 5.3% in July - matching the lowest of the post-recession recovery http://t.co/oeH2mqhM5k pic.twitter.com/wRuR61p2Jm
— MarketWatch Economy (@MKTWeconomics) August 7, 2015
Arguably the best feature of the July jobs report is the longer workweek, which boosts average weekly earnings (adds to wage inflation).
— Jeoff Hall (@JeoffHall) August 7, 2015
Jobs added over the year ended: July 2015: 2.92M July 2014: 2.57M July 2013: 2.32M http://t.co/LvLk5jZuQR pic.twitter.com/6N9poTmdKy
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) August 7, 2015
The dollar is climbing against sterling, the euro and the yen, and hit a five-month high against the Swiss franc, as traders are betting on a September rate rise from the Fed.
James Knightley at ING says:
The July jobs report is ok. It is strong enough to keep the September rate hike our central case, but we will need to see something similar or better next month to give the market reasonable confidence that it will indeed happen.
The headlines are that payrolls rose 215k with 14k upward revisions to the last two months so on balance is pretty close to the 225k consensus. The unemployment rate remains at 5.3% as expected while average hourly earnings rose 0.2%MoM, which was also in line with consensus although the YoY rate was 2.1% rather than the 2.3% figure expected. Additionally, the average work week rose to 34.6 hours from 34.5.
This all seems consistent with the “further improvement” in the labour market that the Federal Reserve is seeking – jobs are being created, unemployment is falling, people are working more hours and pay is ticking higher. With average earnings likely to rise further given the shrinking slack in the labour market this should help to give the Fed confidence that inflation will rise back towards the 2% in the medium term even with the weakness in energy and commodity prices.”
#EURUSD 1.0867 pic.twitter.com/YTXNV2ew1m
— Francine Lacqua (@flacqua) August 7, 2015
"Good" Jobs Data Is Bad News - Bonds, Stocks, Gold Dumped; USD Pumped http://t.co/75zr6Z6FRM
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 7, 2015
Updated
Hiring picked up in US construction and manufacturing, offsetting a decline in the mining sector. You can read our full story on the US jobs market here.
Updated
Wages have also rebounded: average hourly earnings increased five cents, or 0.2%, in July after being flat in June, putting them 2.1% higher than a year earlier – still well below the 3.5% growth rate that economists associate with full employment.
The unemployment rate stayed at 5.3%, as expected. The euro extended losses against the dollar, as markets read the labour market report as being supportive of a rate hike in September.
US non-farm payrolls up 215,000
The US economy added 215,000 new jobs last month, versus expectations of a 223,000 increase. June’s rise was revised higher to 231,000 from 223,000 while May was also revised up to 260,000 from 254,000.
The slide in commodity markets continues: Copper has hit a fresh six-year low, falling to $5,121, while zinc fell to $1,846 a tonne, its weakest level in two years.
Less than five minutes to go before the US non-farm payrolls figures come out.
Dollar steady ahead of non-farm payrolls
Markets are lifeless, as Connor Campbell at Spreadex put it.
The dollar is steady ahead of the US labour market data, trading at $1.0927 against the euro, $1.5513 against sterling and at 124.80 yen. It has risen against the euro and the yen this week.
A senior dealer at an international bank in London told Reuters:
It’s pretty straightforward today - the Fed has said it wants to see improvement in the labour market, which everyone has taken as couple of hundred thousand jobs each month. If they get that, the dollar stays bid. If not, it will sell off.”
While we are waiting for non-farm payrolls, Chris Johnston has taken a look at results from UK housebuilder Bellway.
Plenty of good numbers from Bellway today in a trading update. The housebuilder sold a record 7,752 homes for the year to 31 July - up 13.2%, with the average selling price rising 5% increase to £224,000. It expects operating margins to increase by about 3 percentage points to more than 20%, while the forward order book stands at 4,568 homes worth almost £1.1bn.
Chief executive Ted Ayres said:
We have made a substantial investment in attractive land opportunities and the group has the balance sheet and operational capability to invest further, thereby enablingBellwayto continue delivering additional and much needed new homes.”
Shares are up 0.8% to £24.48 after Liberum Capital raised its price target on the stock to £26.75.
Updated
Oil has had another bad week. Worries over oversupply continue to weigh on Brent crude, the world’s benchmark, which is on track for a sixth week of losses, the longest run since the turn of the year.
Brent has dipped 0.5% to $49.26 a barrel, while US crude is flat at $44.62.
Looking ahead to the US labour market data, out at 1.30pm London time, analysts at ING said:
We expect the US labour report to set the tone for the coming week, given the FOMC statement suggesting that the Federal Reserve only needs to see ‘some’ further improvement in the labour market before mustering the confidence to raise rates. We interpret this as meaning that two decent payrolls figures will be enough to secure a majority vote for a September rate hike, a view emboldened by Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart’s comments that “there is a high bar right now to not acting”.
The labour surveys have been rather mixed, but we look for another 200k+ jobs growth figure and a slight rise in wage growth. If this is repeated next month, then it should support our September call. Other numbers include retail sales, which should rebound, boosted by strong auto sales, while manufacturing output should recover, given the improved ISM output series.”
A bad jobs report still might not shake Fed’s view http://t.co/OiI7hAN2ta via @WSJ
— Paul Hannon (@PaulHannon29) August 7, 2015
Updated
Emerging market stocks are heading for a third week of losses after hitting a two-year low on Friday, even though Chinese shares ended the week higher.
Many emerging market currencies are also under pressure, such as the Turkish lira, The Russian rouble and the Israeli shekel, as concerns over China’s economic slowdown persist. Most Asian currencies have also weakened.
MSCI’s emerging markets index is down 0.8% in subdued trading, ahead of US non-farm payrolls.
Maarten-Jan Bakkum, senior emerging markets strategist at NN Investment Partners, says:
Investors are still underestimating the large pressure on emerging markets from the Chinese slowdown and the gradual unwinding of the dollar carry trade. Emerging market currency risk remains high, as real effective exchange rates are still not reflecting the weak emerging markets fundamentals and deteriorating global liquidity environment.”
It's not a good time for commodities hedge funds. http://t.co/OnylHJwMtz via @JavierBlas2 pic.twitter.com/ZjfwJDT37Z
— Joseph Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) August 7, 2015
Pound steadies after Thursday's sell-off
Sterling has steadied after Thursday’s sell-off, when expectations of higher UK interest rates receded. News that the Bank of England’s rate-setting committee voted 8-1 to leave rates unchanged this month came as a surprise to markets, who had expected at least two (if not three) votes for a rate rise this month.
The pound is trading 0.06% higher against the dollar at $1.5523. It was unmoved by data that showed Britain’s trade deficit widened in June, but narrowed in the second quarter.
Ruth Miller, UK economist at Capital Economics, has looked at the trade figures in detail:
The widening of the UK trade deficit in June is likely to be the start of a further deterioration in the coming months. The overall trade deficit widened once more to £1.6bn in June, broadly in line with consensus expectations, after its sharp contraction in May. The drop in June was largely due to a sharp rise in import goods values after the 2.3% monthly decline in May. Meanwhile goods exports values fell by 1.0% on the month.
Admittedly, over Q2 as a whole, goods exports (in volume terms) posted a strong 6.6% increase, owing to a monthly surge of 4.8% in April. So having subtracted 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth in Q1, net trade should have made a sizeable positive contribution to growth in the second quarter, perhaps as large as 1.0pp.
Nonetheless, monthly trade data are prone to revision and recently had their official status as ‘national statistics’ removed due to quality concerns. And it seems unlikely that net trade will be a sustained source of support for GDP growth this year. Fundamentally, the stronger pound and weakness of demand in the euro-zone could lead to a further widening in the trade deficit. Accordingly, the recovery is likely to remain domestic-led for the foreseeable future.”
German finance ministry favours bridge loan for Athens - report
Germany’s finance ministry favours a bridge loan for Greece to give Athens and its international creditors more time to negotiate a comprehensive third bailout, the Sueddeutsche Zeitung daily reported on Friday.
If true, this would be at odds with the view held by Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras and French president François Hollande, who said on Thursday a new bailout should be agreed by late August. The day before, Tsipras said Athens is on the “final stretch” of concluding a bailout deal.
The German paper quoted a ministry source as saying:
“A programme that should last three years and be worth over €80bn needs a really solid basis. A further bridge loan is better than just a half-finished programme.”
Greece needs to make a €3.5bn debt payment to the European Central Bank on 20 August and without a bailout deal, Athens would need bridge financing.
Greek deflation persists
Numbers just out show deflation persisted in Greece in July, with consumer prices falling 2.2% on the year. The pace of deflation was the same as in the previous month.
Prices in the crisis-torn country have been falling for 29 months, as wages and pensions have been cut. Greece’s EU-harmonised deflation rate showed prices fell by 1.3% in July, compared with 1.1% in June.
What news from Athens? Greece in charts http://t.co/cbLRQ6LsJp pic.twitter.com/PCH5yzgMjF
— The Economist (@TheEconomist) August 6, 2015
Greek stocks up, led by banks
Greek stocks are in positive territory, with bank stocks outperforming after steep losses earlier this week. The moves signal a further calming of nerves for bank stocks, which are trading 2.85% higher this morning. The Athens market as a whole is up 1.55%.
It’s been a more positive end to the week for the banks after the bank index fell 63% in the first three days. But, with heavy recapitalisation still needed, nervousness still remains. The EU estimates Greek banks will need between €10bn and €25bn in extra capital.
Athens remains locked in negotiations with its international lenders about a third bailout, worth about €86bn.
It’s a relatively quiet morning, after the excitement of Super Thursday.
Connor Campbell, financials analyst at Spreadex, says:
This morning things are looking slightly better in the commodity sector, leaving the chance for a recovery in the oil and mining stocks. So far, however, investors aren’t quite willing to buy into it yet, given how quickly the commodity sector has turned of late, leaving the FTSE pretty limp after the bell. With the UK’s trade balance expected to worsen, the UK index might struggle to improve much on its current 2 and a half week high.
The DAX had a dismal start to Friday; a fall in the German trade balance was exacerbated by a huge miss in the country’s industrial production, from 0.3% expected to -1.4%. This left the DAX as one of the worst performing European indices as the day’s trading got underway, with the CAC not too far behind after France’s own disappointing, if not quite as extreme, drop in its industrial figures.
And that’s sort of it for the eurozone; what was once a hotbed of frankly insane volatility has become eerily quiet over the past fortnight, and data-wise at least there is nothing this Friday to change that. Assumedly no news is good news in regards to the third bailout negotiations in Greece, but beyond the odd comment from the IMF (or a chipper Juncker) it is hard for the markets to truly ascertain the state of play. This calm has, however, allowed for a gradual collection of gains for the eurozone indices, with the DAX and CAC, like the FTSE, sitting at 2 week highs.”
'Industrial output trends diverging within eurozone'
We’ve also had industrial production figures from France this morning. Output slipped 0.1% in June, wrongfooting economists who had expected a 0.3% rise.
Chris Williamson, chief economist at economic survey firm Markit, says:
Industrial production trends are diverging within the eurozone area, with signs of renewed weakness in the ‘core’ contrasting with resurgent growth in the periphery. Production growth slowed to a crawl in Germany in the second quarter and fell marginally in France, but Spain is enjoying strong growth and a sustained upturn is evident in Italy.
However, the industrial sectors of Spain and Italy remain one-quarter smaller than their price crisis peaks, highlighting the mountains still needed to be climbed by these countries in terms of rebuilding their industrial sectors.”
Eurozone Q2 industrial production trends show core weakness: Germany +0.2, France -0.7%, Italy +0.4%, Spain +1.8% pic.twitter.com/Qn8gf6iANj
— Chris Williamson (@WilliamsonChris) August 7, 2015
You can read the ONS release here.
UK trade gap shrinks in second quarter
The UK trade figures are out, showing the trade in goods deficit widened to £9.2bn in June from £8.4bn. It was slightly smaller than expected.
The stronger pound, coupled with weaker demand from the eurozone, one of Britain’s main trading partners, have hit British exports.
However, for the second quarter as a whole, the trade deficit shrank to £27.4bn from £30.4bn in the first quarter, making it the smallest gap in two years.
The Office for National Statistics said the quarterly trade balance would make a positive contribution to economic growth in the second quarter, but was unable to quantify this.
Updated
Commodities near six-year lows
Commodities are still under pressure, hit by slowing demand from China, the world’s top consumer of metals. Copper and aluminium are trading near six-year lows.
Copper eased 0.1% to $5,176.50 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange, down 1% so far this week. Aluminium dipped 0.3% to $1,587.50 a tonne.
China shares rise on report of funding measures
Chinese shares rose, boosted by a Bloomberg report that the Chinese government agency tasked with buying stocks to prop up markets is seeking an extra 2 trillion yuan (£208bn) in funds.
The additional funding would increase the war chest available to the China Securities Finance Corporation to 5 trillion yuan, according to Bloomberg. The CSF has been thrust into the spotlight since shares started plummeting in June as a conduit for China’s central bank to inject funding directly into stock markets.
The Shanghai Composite Index gained 2.3%, ending the week 2.2% higher – its best week since 24 July. The CSI300 index rose nearly 2%, ending the week up 2.4% – its biggest weekly gain since 10 July.
Beijing has rolled out a series of unprecedented measures to stem the slide in the stock markets, which poses a threat to the overall economy, already slowing.
Updated
BOE's Broadbent: no urgency to raise rates
Bank of England deputy governor Ben Broadbent has said he sees no urgent need to raise interest rates. And he added that the Bank was not concerned about the resurgent housing market.
In the wake of the Bank’s monetary policy committee deciding to keep rates unchanged by 8 votes to 1 - fewer dissenters than expected - he told BBC radio:
As I saw it, I didn’t think there was any urgency to raise interest rates right now. We expect to be some way off [from an increase].
On housing he said:
Clearly there are going to be pockets where at any one time house price inflation is quite high but I think overall in the UK we don’t view that with great alarm.”
Broadbent, who sits on the Bank’s financial policy committee which monitors risks to the economy from the banking sector, said measures introduced by the FPC to rein in high-risk mortgages had been successful.
Updated
Viva España!
Spain’s economy, the fourth-largest in the eurozone, is powering ahead: factories ramped up production in June, driving industrial output up 4.5% year-on-year. That’s the biggest annual increase since March 2010.
Spain emerged as the best performer of the eurozone’s big four economies last month, according to business surveys.
UK Mail Group saw its shares fall up to 15% in early trading after making a profits warning. The group said profits would be materially below market expectations due to the higher than expected costs of setting up a new automated hub near Coventry.
William Hill, the bookie, was the biggest faller in the FTSE 250 after its profits tumbled by more than a third. The group is also spending $25m in cash for a 24.9% stake in NeoGames, a US-fcoused online lottery software provider.
Chris Johnston has more detail – read the full story here.
Updated
Better data is expected from the US later in the day.
A Reuters survey of economists forecast that nonfarm payrolls increased by 223,000 last month, matching June’s job gains, a number which would be slightly above the monthly average for the first half of the year.
Markets will also be looking for signs that wages rebounded. A strong labour market report would bolster expectations that the Fed, chaired by Janet Yellen, could act at the mid-September meeting and lift borrowing costs for the first time in nearly a decade.
Millan Mulraine, deputy chief economist at TD Securities in New York, said:
We expect this report to deliver a further jolt to the Fed’s confidence in their relatively optimistic economic outlook and further solidify the bias for a September [rate] hike.”
Updated
European stock markets slip after fall in German industrial output
European stock markets have opened lower, after a surprising fall in German industrial output and exports.
Germany’s Dax dropped 0.5%, while France’s CAC and Italy’s FTSE MiB both slipped 0.3%. Spain’s Ibex was down 0.4% in early trading.
The FTSE 100 index in London has slipped 0.1% to 6738.69.
It might be August but new Barclays chairman John McFarlane, who recently put the axe to former CEO Antony Jenkins, is not having any summer-time frivolity at the bank’s head office in Canary Wharf.
Just like the equally stern Peter Cruddas at CMC Markets, McFarlane has banned flip flops and jeans at head office to encourage a more serious tone, even from Barclaycard colleagues when they are visiting.
Barclays chairman John McFarlane bans flip-flops and jeans at head office http://t.co/6akxzAQwQJ #news #telegraph
— BlackCentaur (@JacekWierzbicki) August 6, 2015
Updated
German exports, industrial output fall
The German economy has suffered a setback, with exports falling more than expected in June and industrial output also declining.
Figures from the Federal Statistics Office showed exports dropped 1% on the month while imports fell 0.5%. The trade surplus still hit a record €22bn.
Meanwhile, industrial output dropped 1.4% in June. The Economy Ministry blamed weakness in construction, which posted a decline following a strong first quarter. The ministry added: “The conditions for the sector remain good.”
Figures released on Thursday showed German industrial orders posted their biggest gain between April and June since early 2011, despite China’s slowdown and the Greek debt crisis.
German factories in June: Took loads of orders (+2%), didn't bother making any of it (-1.4%)
— Mike Bird (@Birdyword) August 7, 2015
@Accendo_Mike Backlog up? German IP can be volatile MoM
— Roel (@RoelD_) August 7, 2015
Updated
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Following the Bank of England’s Super Thursday, attention shifts to the US on Friday.
For the first time the Bank issued its latest inflation report and the minutes of its monetary policy committee meeting at the same time as its latest decision on interest rates and quantitative easing.
The decision to leave rates at 0.5% came as no surprise, but unexpectedly the minutes showed only one member of the nine-strong committee backed a rate rise this month. The City had expected that at least two members would vote for a hike.
The committee pointed to the stronger pound and the fall in oil prices, which have kept inflation lower than expected (it hit zero in June). As the likelihood of a rate hike this year appeared to recede, the pound tumbled 0.75% against the dollar immediately after the news.
But Bank governor Mark Carney struck a more hawkish tone at his subsequent press conference, saying the timing of the next rate rise was getting closer, and sterling recouped some of its losses.
On Friday, markets are eagerly awaiting the publication of US non-farm payrolls data, which should shed some light on the strength of the labour market, which Federal Reserve members have highlighted as being key. Wall Street is expecting an increase of 225,000 new jobs in July, with the unemployment rate at 5.3%
The Fed is widely expected to raise borrowing costs before the Bank of England acts, possibly as soon as September.
European markets are expected open higher.
With the indie film of #SuperThursday out of the way the real summer blockbuster of payrolls can be released. Silo of popcorn at the ready.
— World First (@World_First) August 7, 2015
Updated