Graeme Wearden (until 2.00) and Nick Fletcher 

Greek crisis: IMF says no third bailout without debt relief – as it happened

Greece’s finance minister tells Bloomberg TV he’d rather cut his arm off than agree to a deal without debt restructuring
  
  

Watch: Greek voters, ‘We’re not afraid of fear any more.’

And finally..... Tsipras says MPs will be asked to vote on the old bailout proposal, if the referendum result is Yes.

But how, I wonder, will will his party vote?

Anyway, that’s the end of the interview (highlights start here) And (for the second time) the end of this blog. See you tomorrow.

Updated

Back in the Greek PM’s office, Tsipras denies that he’s attempting a coup with his referendum (as the opposition claimed).

He’s also calling out the media for being biased in favour of the Yes campaign; the interviewer points out that Syriza MPs get on TV too.

Constantine Michalos, head of the Hellenic Chambers of Commerce, doesn’t think the Greek banks are going to open again on Tuesday.

He’s told the Telegraph that:

“We are reliably informed that the cash reserves of the banks are down to €500m. Anybody who thinks they are going to open again on Tuesday is day-dreaming. The cash would not last an hour,”

Tsipras is now repeating what his finance minister told Bloomberg this morning - that a No vote will be followed by fresh negotiations, and a deal.

(This probably wouldn’t have happened if the referendum had been called earlier, though - it was the imminent end of the bailout programme that forced the ECB to act)

My decision to call a referendum prompted the IMF to release its debt sustainability analysis, argues Tsipras.

Tsipras suggests that the International Monetary Fund could have piped up earlier:

(aside: If the IMF has known for a while that Greece needs a €50bn bailout, and debt relief, did it make this clear during negotiations?)

And on the issue of the hour, Alexis Tsipras is adamant that a new bailout must include debt restructuring

.....echoing the IMF, of course.

...followed by a nice pop at his predecessors (such as Antonis Samaras, who blasted Tsipras on Bloomberg TV today)

A punchy soundbite:

No early surprises from Alexis Tsipras in tonight’s speech (online here).

He’s insisting that Greeks will be voting for Democracy and justice in Europe on Sunday (if they vote no). OXI does not equal Grexit, he vows.

And he’s also repeating his criticism of Greece’s lenders, for failing to compromise:

Tsipras TV interview

Oh, one last thing...Alexis Tsipras is giving an interview on Antenna TV now.

It’s being streamed live here. We’re keeping an eye for any major announcements...

Updated

The Greek government has just announced that a number of leading musicians, singers and actors will stage a concert when a huge “no” rally is held in Syntagma square in front of the parliament tomorrow night, reports Helena Smith.

“The big no rally will be a big festival of the people,” the ruling radical left Syriza party announced in a statement. “We will respond to the scene of fear that they want to impose with our songs, with our strong voice.”

“In Sunday’s referendum with a proud OXI (no) we will write history. We will say the OXI of our life in order for life to emerge victorious.”

What is sure is that the language is becoming ever more colourful.

Meanwhile Aegean Airways has also just announced that it will be putting on extra flights to enable Greeks living in London and Brussels to vote in Sunday’s plebiscite.

There will be additional flights on Sunday and Monday it says - and at cut prices:

€199 return to Brussels and £148 return to London.

And on that note we’ll close up for the evening, pending any major developments later. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back tomorrow, counting down to Sunday’s key referendum.

John Hooper has been sounding out voters in the villages of Corinthia. Read his piece here:

Updated

Voters won’t be able to miss this:

Even a yes vote in Sunday’s referendum may not be enough to keep Greece in the euro, says Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz. Commenting on the International Monetary Fund’s report, he says:

The IMF’s DSA (debt sustainability analysis) for Greece offers a stark reminder of the challenges faced by all those involved in this horrid tragedy.

It points to an enormous need for economic reforms by a country that – repeatedly – has had huge difficulties sustaining a less ambitious effort under several governments.

It speaks to the need for Europe to bite the bullet and deliver a credible “debt operation” (which, most probably, would involve debt forgiveness, the very mention of which has proven an anathema to some European governments).

And all this would need to happen if the IMF (and soon, possibly, also the ECB) is to stand a chance of being paid back in a full and more timely fashion.

While all sides are likely to use the IMF’s DSA to bolster their case ahead of Sunday’s referendum, it is increasingly possible that even a “yes” vote would prove insufficient to maintain the country’s membership of the European single currency.

Every single day, an already challenging situation on the ground is slipping further away from the ability of politicians, whether in Greece or elsewhere in Europe, to deliver outcomes.

European markets have ended lower ahead of the key Greek referendum decision at the weekend, with an exception being the FTSE 100 which has been lifted by BP agreeing to pay US authorities around $18.7bn relating to the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

ECB board member Josef Bonnici said the terms of any future emergency funding it offered to Greek banks - including the amount of collateral - would depend on the outcome of the referendum.

Asked by reporters in Milan if a win for the no supporters meant the emergency liquidity assistance would end, he said:

“Let’s wait and see what the result is.”

He added that the ELA was not an infinite fund.

(Quotes via Reuters)

Over in Athens the Greek government spokeman, Gavriel Sakellarides, has reacted to the onslaught of support former prime ministers have made for the yes campaign today. Our correspondent Helena Smith reports:

Growing numbers in the governing Syriza party are now saying openly that the no campaign is being deliberately targeted by what the left-leaning paper Syntaktwn described as “a machine of terror” in its front page splash today.

Echoing those sentiments, the government spokeman issued the following statement.

“We are watching a crush of former prime minister and political figures rushing to defend a yes vote to the proposal of lenders. That’s their right.”

“However it is also the right of the people not to forget them. And to decide over their dignity and interests undistracted from the blackmail and unprecedented propaganda.”

Syriza took the step this afternoon of expanding its no campaign beyond the borders of Greece by publishing a “letter of solidarity to the Greek people” signed by 400 Italian academics.

Earlier, it published a proclamation signed by 300 members of the academy in Greece also supporting the government’s no campaign.

“In the referendum on Sunday 5th July we will vote OXI (No),” the academics said. “Because we can no longer bear to see Greek society collapsing under the weight of the merciless continuation of the policies of austerity that manifestly is leading the economy ever more deeply into the vicious cycle of recession from which it is never going to emerge.”

Updated

Greece’s banks have come under more pressure from ratings agencies, not altogether surprisingly.

Fitch has downgraded the long-term senior debt rating of National Bank of Greece and Eurobank Ergasias from CCC to CC.

Meanwhile Moody’s says it has put the ratings of National Bank of Greece, Piraeus Bank, Eurobank Ergasias, Alpha Bank and Attica Bank on review for a possible downgrade.

Nick Kounis at ABN Amro thinks the IMF could be underplaying Greece’s problems:

And here’s our report on the IMF’s pronouncements:

Our correspondent Phillip Inman has read the IMF document and highlights some of the juicest segments.

He says: “The IMF admits the deterioration in Greece’s financial position means is not in a position to cope with debt repayments for at least three years, even with a debt write-off.

It said: “Even with concessional financing through 2018, debt would remain very high for decades and highly vulnerable to shocks.”

This would entail a much longer period before debt repayments are due and a longer period to pay them off.

The IMF said: “Given the fragile debt dynamics, further concessions are necessary to restore debt sustainability. As an illustration, one option for recovering sustainability would be to extend the grace period to 20 years and the amortization period to 40 years on existing EU loans and to provide new official sector loans to cover financing needs falling due on similar terms at least through 2018.”

Updated

IMF - Greece needs an extra €50bn and large scale debt relief

Just days ahead of the Greek referendum, the International Monetary Fund has said the struggling country needs €50bn of extra funds over the next three years. It also requires large scale debt relief to create “a breathing space” and stabilise the economy. Larry Elliott and Phillip Inman write:

With three days to go before a knife-edge referendum, the IMF revealed a deep split with Europe as it warned that Greece’s debts were “unsustainable”.

Fund officials said they would not be prepared to put a proposal for a third Greek bail out package to the Washington-based organisation’s board unless it included both a commitment to economic reform and debt relief.

According to the IMF, Greece should have a 20-year grace period before making any debt repayments and that final payments should not take place until 2055.

The IMF’s analysis will be seized upon by Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, who has been insisting that he will only agree to tough new austerity measure if Greece is granted debt relief.

Full story to follow.

Greek banks would have failed without capital controls - Fitch

Greece’s four largest banks would have failed and defaulted without this week’s capital controls due to deposit withdrawals and the European Central Bank’s decision not to raise the emergency funding cap, according to Fitch Ratings. The agency said:

The Greek banking system’s liquidity and solvency positions are very weak and some banks may be nearing a point where resolution [intervention to manage the failure of a firm in an orderly fashion] becomes a real possibility. The ECB is responsible for supervising and authorising the four major Greek banks, and the Bank of Greece is resolution authority for the others.

Resolution of Greek banks, if required, is unlikely to be straightforward. We believe it would be politically unacceptable to impose losses on Greek creditors and that efforts would be made to find a solution which avoids this but still complies with EU legislation. Existing bank resolution laws in Greece are relatively mature, sharing many similarities with the EU’s Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive, although they exclude explicit bail-in of senior unsecured creditors.

And it concludes on a grim note:

A swift lifting of capital controls is highly unlikely even if there is successful resumption of negotiations with the ECB, IMF and European Commission. Controls on Cypriot banks, lifted in May, lasted two years.

The full statement is here:

Fitch: Many Challenges If Resolution Needed On Greek Banks

Some responses to our Guardian Witness call out for people to share their experiences in Greece at the moment.

In some ways life is continuing as normal:

The market comes to my local area in Thessaloniki every Thursday morning, and is principally a vegetable market although there are a couple of chicken stalls, four or five for fish stalls and a few for cheese, dairy, some for eggs, some for kitchen supplies and so on.

Nothing has changed from last week, or the week before or the week before that. Plenty of produce out and no swing in prices outside of the usual seasonal variations that pertain alongside the changes in harvest times for different things. Just as many shoppers as usual.

I think this demonstrates that the market is the heart of Greece; as long as we grow and pick and eat we'll get by whatever the neo-liberals in Berlin, Brussels and New York want to throw at us.

Elsewhere ( in this case Trikala) there are clear signs of the opposing views in the country ahead of Sunday’s referendum:

Updated

The European Central Bank plans to meet on Monday to discuss provision of emergency funding to Greek banks, according to Reuters.

The current cap is €85bn, and a decision on whether to continue it or freeze it looks likely to be made quickly once the referendum result is known.

Greek voters: "We're not afraid of fear any more"

In this mini-documentary Phoebe Greenwood meets the no and yes voters in Athens, as well as businesses affected by the continuing crisis and an academic who says referenda are a dangerous way of making decisions.

And the Greek referendum website is live:

Here’s our story by Jennifer Rankin on the pledge by Yanis Varoufakis to resign if the country votes yes in Sunday’s referendum:

Greece’s finance minister has pledged to resign if his country votes yes to the bailout plan proposed by international lenders.

Yanis Varoufakis, the academic-turned-minister who has riled his eurozone counterparts, said he would not remain finance minister on Monday if Greece voted yes.

In an interview with Bloomberg, the self-declared “erratic Marxist” said he would rather cut off his arm than accept another austerity bailout without any debt relief for Greece.

However, he was “quite confident” that the Greek people would back the government’s call for a no vote.

The full story is here:

Only three days to go now until the referendum, and in this Guardian video columnist Jonathan Freedland and economics editor Larry Elliott consider the last few turbulent days and look ahead to Sunday’s vote:

Question marks over poll showing Yes vote ahead

The opinion poll which showed the Yes campaign at 47% and the No campaign at 43%, is not as straightforward as first thought.

GPO, the polling company which carried it out, has released a statement which says the survey was released without its permission, and is only a fragment of its research.

GPO says that it takes “no responsibility” for the release of the poll, and will use all legal means at its disposal to protect its interests.

GPO adds that it is important that polling results should always be conducted in a “responsible and comprehensive manner”, including during this “critical decision of Greek people”.

Here’s the statement.

So, it’s not clear whether the 47%-43% result is wrong. Or just part of a wider set of results which hasn’t been released.

I’ve put a call into GPO, so we may get more info later....

Updated

My colleague Jon Henley is tweeting from Greece, showing a gift shop with a stiff upper lip:

Updated

Syriza has called on Greeks to attend a “No’ rally on Friday night, at 7:30pm local time (5.30pm BST).

Athens will be crowded tomorrow night, with a ‘Yes’ rally also taking place.

Samaras: Don't let Tsipras take us back to the Drachma

Another former Greek PM, Antonis Samaras, has just spoken on Bloomberg TV, and called for a Yes vote.

Samaras says that Sunday’s referendum is a straight choice between the euro and the drachma.

We won’t let Alexis Tsipras take us back to the drachma, says Samaras. That would be disastrous -- it would kill the economy, and also kill the hopes of the Greek people.

Tsipras told voters that the country would be unrecognisable in six months - well he’s achieved that, adds Samaras (who may still be smarting about being ousted by Syriza in January).

Updated

A former Greek prime minister, Kostas Karamanlis, has just called for people to vote Yes to preserve the country’s place in Europe.

In a TV interview, Karamanlis - PM from 2004-2009 - warned that a No result would be the first step towards leaving the eurozone.

In a sign of mounting tension in the Greek government, three members of the junior coalition party, Independent Greeks, have distanced themselves from the referendum.

The Greek Kathimerini newspaper says:

Last Saturday when I voted in favor of the referendum I had assurances that there would be no capital controls,” noted Larissa MP Vassilis Kokkalis, on Thursday, adding that he did not have a mandate for closed banks.

A second MP, Costas Damavolitis, has now urged voters to tick the ‘yes’ box to stay in the eurozone.

And a third, Piraeus MP Dimitris Kammenos, has released a statement called for the withdrawal of the referendum.

Over in Athens our correspondent Helena Smith says a Yes vote would almost certainly trigger political movement, with Tsipras’ own role in government highly questionable.

Whether resounding or not, a yes vote would make it high nigh impossible for the government to continue in its present make-up. Some form of change - be it elections, the creation of a national unity cross-party government or the formation of a Mario Monti-style administration led by technocrats - would become inevitable.

Yanis Varoufakis’ candid announcement that he would rather resign than put his name to an agreement with creditors that did not deal with the issue of the country’s unsustainable debt burden, gives a taste of what will follow if the no camp is defeated.

What was not conveyed, however, was the extraordinary influence Varoufakis exerts on Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, who has to the last followed his finance minister’s agenda of game theory and brinkmanship in dealing with the EU and IMF.

The young premier has stuck by Varoufakis despite his closest aides, and reportedly even the deputy prime minister Yannis Dragasakis, disagreeing vehemently with the way negotiations have been conducted since the fiasco euro group in Riga on April 24.

Many blame the academic-turned politician personally for the isolation Greece now finds itself in internationally. “There are many who would rather he had done things differently,” a senior government official told me this week.

Should Varourfakis go, it might only be a matter of time before Tsipras also stepped down. On Monday the leftwing leader hinted that he might do as much in an interview with state run TV, highlighting the extent to which Sunday’s referendum is also about Syriza and its battle for survival in power.

According to Reuters, Greek state minister Nikos Pappas has told journalists that the banks will reopen “as soon as we get an agreement.”

You can use GuardianWitness to share your experiences of what’s going on in Greece today. Tell us what’s happening in your local area?

Περιγράψτε μας την κατάσταση στην Ελλάδα σήμερα; Στείλτε μας τι συμβαίνει στην περιοχή σας;

Watch Yanis Varoufakis's interview here

Don’t worry if you missed Yanis Varoufakis’s interview, in which he promises that he won’t be finance minister on Monday night Greece votes ‘Yes’ on Sunday:

Bloomberg has now uploaded it, here:

Varoufakis Says he Will Quit if Greeks Vote ‘Yes’

Well worth watching (the pledge to resign is around 5 minutes in).

Varoufakis says he will quit if Greeks vote “yes”.

Updated

Over in Brussels, the EC’s chief spokesman Margaritis Schinas has confirmed that talks with Athens are now on ice until Greece has voted on its future on Sunday.

Sky News Europe correspondent, Rob Nisbet, reports that the yes campaign is dominating TV adverts in the run-up to Sunday’s poll.

Over in Athens, polls this morning polls are suggesting that Sunday’s referendum will be a close run thing.

The difference in support between the “yes” and “no” camps so narrow that the result is essentially too close to call.

A GPO poll released by euro2day.gr suggested this morning a “yes” vote - ballots cast by Greeks who believe that country must remain in the euro zone at any cost - would prevail with 47 % saying they would cast such ballots.

However, 43% (with the vast majority being supporters of the governing Syriza party) said they would back the government’s call for a “no” vote that would reject the harsh austerity imposed by foreign lenders on Greece.

But that number is far from assured as the margin of error in the poll was 3.1 percentage points, and three days left for people to change their minds.

Last night, Greece’s fiery parliament president Zoe Konstantopoulou denounced what she described as the “extreme intervention” of those now wanting to cancel the popular vote.

“Yes means yes to ultimatums,” she said, calling on Greeks to vote No and “repulse this latest intimidation”.

Laying out the arguments, Konstantopoulou, a prominent figure on Syriza’s far left who has become ever more vocal despite her position as head of the 300-seat parliament said:

“Yes means yes to … submission, unemployment, insecurity, endless taxes, the undermining of the Greek economy. People will say NO to artificial dilemmas, no to the strangulation of people by closed banks, no to the slavery of member-states, no to economic and political subordination.”

He’s not resigned yet, Stan!

Vassilis Korkidis, who heads the National Confederation of Hellenic Commerce, has also heard talk that the banks may indeed run out of cash by Monday (as The Times reports today).

Korkidis told our correspondent Helena Smith yesterday that the Greek economy is grinding to a halt.

“No one trusts anyone anymore, so no transactions are taking place between wholesale and retail.”

With just €1.5bn euro in reserves on Friday - and the cash being fast depleted - it is far from assured that banks will be able to open after the referendum on Tuesday.

“The Greek prime minister [Tsipras] is telling lies when he says the banks will open soon,” Stavros Theodorakis who heads the pro-European Potami party told SKAI TV.

“How will the banks open? Who will give money and this problem is going to affect poor people. Besides the rich have taken their money overseas.”

Snap summary: Vote Yanis! (or not)

It’s too late to reprint Sunday’s ballot papers. But if they could, the question could be changed to “Do you want a new finance minister?”

In three little words, Yanis Varoufakis has now made the referendum about himself – and in a way he was right to.

Greeks must now decide whether the “sustainable deal” that Varoufakis has been banging on about for months is really achievable. Or is the offer on the table last week the best that Greece can get?

And there really is no way back now -- with Varoufakis insisting he’d rather ‘cut his arm off’ than sign a deal that doesn’t include debt relief.

Varoufakis also remains amazingly confident that a deal could be agreed quickly, if Greece votes no.

Will creditors really wake up on Monday morning, see Greece has backed its government, and quickly agree a new deal including debt relief?

If they don’t, the ECB has no reason to turn on liquidity to the banks again, right? The €89bn question....

And Varoufakis came as close as possible to confirm that he believes Berlin is out to get Tsipras. “You may very well think that, I couldn’t possibly comment” indeed....

Updated

Have you spoken to Alexis Tsipras about whether he’d resign?

This is no time to talk about defeat, says Varoufakis (just minutes after saying his own job is on the line!!).

We’re going to win on Sunday, we’re going to be here... he insists

Remarkable interview, well done Guy Johnson and Bloomberg.

Reaction to follow.....

Updated

Why haven’t we seen you at the cash machines, Mr Varoufakis?

I’ve been rather busy, for one thing. But yes, my wife and I must be the only people who haven’t queued up. It feels ‘inappropriate’, Varoufakis adds, but suggests we shouldn’t personalise the issue.

Bloomberg’s Guy Johnson suggests that people may doubt that Varoufakis is here for the long haul.....

I left a job at the University of Texas to come here, Varoufakis replies. And even if he does resign as finance minister, he’ll still be an MP.

Updated

Varoufakis says he’s confident that the Greek people will vote No.

And he denies that a No vote will lead to Grexit.

Greeks want to stay in the euro, so they need to decide the best way to achieve that -- with a sustainable deal or an unsustainable one.

He’s insisting that Greece’s creditors will be prepared to negotiate with him on a third bailout programme, if Greece votes No. And we could have an agreement quickly.

Varoufakis channels Francis Urquhart

Do you think Angela Merkel is seeking regime chance?

I’ll quote from a BBC programme, Varoufakis smiles:

You may very well think that, I couldn’t possibly comment.

[that’s the Original (and quite brilliant) House of Cards, of course]

But do you think other European governments don’t want to work with you?

You don’t need to ask that, it’s self-evident, Varoufakis says. All the centrist parties campaigned against us before January’s election.

Have they lost trust in you?

No, Varoufakis argues, it’s because they trust that we WILL deliver on our promises.

Varoufakis: I'll resign if Greece votes Yes

Yanis Varoufakis says that the proposal which creditors posed last week will “certainly be on the table” next week if the Greek people vote Yes on Sunday.

But maybe there will be changes within the Greek government, Varoufakis suggests.

Personally I will not sign a new “extend and pretend” agreement that doesn’t learn from the mistakes of the past, and tackle vital issues such as debt sustainability.

Bloomberg’s Guy Johnson tries to nail Varoufakis down on the consequences of Sunday’s vote.

Are you saying that if there is a Yes vote on Sunday, you will not be finance minister on Monday night?

I will not.

But I will help whoever is, to push the agreement through there, Varoufakis adds, pointing at the Athens parliament.

And he reiterates that he doesn’t have the “moral right” to sign a deal that doesn’t include debt restructuring.

Updated

What are the consequences of a yes vote, or a no verdict?

We have said if there’s a Yes, we will sign the deal that was on offer on the dotted line, says Varoufakis. We are unreconstructed democrats, after all

And if there is a No, we will start talks on a new agreement, and “believe you me, there will be an agreement.”

Updated

But how can the ECB let your banks reopen, by raising the ELA limits, on Monday, as Greece won’t be in a bailout programme?

The ECB has been making the rules up since this crisis began, says Varoufakis. What else was Mario Draghi’s “Whatever it takes” speech in 2012?

We politicians need to give Mario Draghi and the ECB the chance to make the right decision.

Varoufakis: Greek bank closures are a political decision

Yanis Varoufakis is on Bloomberg now.

Will the Greek banks open on Tuesday?

Absolutely, says Varoufakis. This is not like Cyprus in 2013 - this is not a banking crisis.

Europe has taken a “Political decision to shut the banks down” as a way to force Greece to accept a non-viable decision.

Once we have given our verdict on Sunday, the banks will reopen.

Greece’s finance minister Yanis Varoufakis about to be interviewed on Bloomberg TV. It will be streamed live here

I’ll cover the key points.

Greece could be in a real pickle by the time Sunday’s referendum is held. One banking insider has told The Times that banks might start to run dry before the end of the weekend.

Mario Draghi’s massive stimulus programme just ratcheted up another notch.

The European Central Bank has just announced that it is expanding its QE bond-buying programme, to include corporate bonds issuers.

That will help the ECB keep pumping liquidity into the markets, which could be very valuable if the Greek crisis really hits the markets.

The ECB is committed to buying €60bn of debt each month, with newly created euros, until September 2016.

Greek journalist Omaira Gill has tweeted pictures from an Athens supermarket yesterday, showing heavy demand for basic goods.

She also shows that the situation remained calm in the historic area of old Athens earlier this week:

Christine Lagarde has punctured hopes of early debt relief for Greece.

In an interview with Reuters, the IMF chief said that it would be “preferable to see a deliberate move towards reforms”, before tackling the issue of Athens’s debt pile

Here’s the story, by Jennifer Rankin in Brussels:

Don’t forget, though, that the IMF’s own research shows that Greece has no chance of hitting the target of cutting debt “well below 110% of GDP by 2022”

Updated

The Greek limbo extends to the financial markets, where the main indices are broadly flat in early trading.

  • FTSE 100: down 2 points at 6606
  • German DAX: up 27 points at 11207
  • French CAC: up 14 points at 4879.

Investors are waiting for the Greek crisis to develop, says Tony Cross of Trustnet direct:

The political grandstanding continues over the Greek debt talks and although the next key indicator here is likely to be the result of Sunday’s referendum, there’s still the prospect of either side throwing in a firework.

The euro is also becalmed - hovering around $1.105. Perhaps London traders are simply overcome with sunstroke and unable to put many bids it.

Over in the FT’s letters section, one young Greek citizen has written about her fears for the future:

Having made optimistic noises in recent weeks, France’s finance minister sounds increasingly like a glass-half-empty man.

Speaking on iTELE, Michel Sapin warned that a No vote could lead to Grexit, as:

“You cannot reach a deal with someone who tells you ‘No’.”

(quote via Reuters)

A Yes vote, though, would lead to negotiations resuming immediately. All eurozone finance ministers were united on this point at yesterday’s meeting, Sapin added.

Introduction: Waiting for the referendum

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the Greek debt crisis.

We’re entering a period of limbo this morning, with both sides now firmly entrenched ahead of Sunday’s referendum.

In Athens, Alexis Tsipras is pressing on with the vote, insisting it will give him a stronger mandate to agree a third bailout and put Greece on a brighter path.

But after yesterday’s TV address, slamming the “extremist conservative forces” in Europe who have tried to undermine him, the rest of Europe hunkering down until Sunday.

Last night, euro finance ministers refused to even discuss a third bailout until Sunday’s polls are closed, the ballot boxes emptied, and a result declared.

And maybe not even then, if the No side win.

Wolfgang Schauble speaking yesterday

As Ian Traynor explained last night:

The trenchant criticism of Tsipras from Berlin reinforced the view that the German government might refuse to negotiate with the leftwing Syriza administration on any new rescue package after Sunday’s referendum in Greece – which Berlin insists is a vote on whether to stay in the euro.

Writing in our comment section today, Seamus Milne argues that Berlin and Brussels are determined to achieve “regime change” in Athens:

There’s no suggestion of genuine compromise. The aim is apparently to humiliate Tsipras and his government in preparation for its early replacement with a more pliable administration.

We know from the IMF documents prepared for last week’s “final proposals” and reported in the Guardian that the creditors were fully aware they meant unsustainable levels of debt and self-defeating austerity for Greece until at least 2030, even on the most fancifully optimistic scenario....

Wolfgang Munchau of Euro Intelligence sums it up:

So now we wait....Three days of uncertainty lie ahead, with Greece’s economy continuing to bleed from the imposition of capital controls. Last night, the European Central Bank maintained the cap on Greek emergency funding, meaning the banks won’t open before the referendum either.

We’ll be tracking all the main events through the day...

Updated

 

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