Andrew Sparrow 

Hodge tells BBC chief Rona Fairhead to resign in HSBC hearing: Politics Live blog

Andrew Sparrow’s rolling coverage of all the day’s political developments as they happen, including Ed Balls’ speech on Tory spending cuts and David Cameron’s speech on education and family
  
  

An HSBC office in Geneva
An HSBC office in Geneva Photograph: Harold Cunningham/Getty Images

HSBC hearing - Summary

It is not that unusual to see a public figure subject to withering scorn by MPs on a select committee - it is one of the few unadulterated pleasures that parliament offers - but, still, this was something. We’re used to see Keith Vax duff up some hapless copper, or a second-rate council chief. But chair of the BBC Trust is one of the triple-A jobs in the British establishment. To hear someone that senior be told to her face by a select committee chair that she should be sacked is remarkable.

Here are the key points from the hearing.

  • Margaret Hodge told Rona Fairhead that her peformance as an HSBC director meant she was no longer fit to lead the BBC Trust. She told her:

I don’t think that the record that you have shown in your performance here as a guardian of HSBC gives me the confidence that you should be the guardian of the BBC licence fee payers’ money. I reallly do think that you should consider your position and you should think about resigning and if not, I think the government should sack you.

  • Hodge and other MPs on the committee said they found it hard to believe that Fairhead, who chaired the HSBC audit committee until 2010, and Chris Meares, the former head of HSBC global private banking, did not know about the extent of the bank’s involvement in tax avoidance and tax evasion. Hodge told the pair.

If you look at the data [the leaked HSBC files] here ... I just can’t believe Chris Meares or Rona Fairhead ... If you look at the data, a third of the data is stuff that is entered by the customer relations managers about the individuals. There are pages of this, absolutely pages, of total collusion by the bank, in your name, in tax evasion ...

This is your guys saying to you: “I contacted this guy by phone saying unless he changed his situation he would be subject to UK tax.”

Next one. “This client has been informed several times on ESD” - that’s the European directive - “even by being visited in London”. So the idea, Mr Gulliver, that this was contained in Switzerland is a nonsense ...

Either you were incompetent, completely and utterly incompetent in your oversight, or you knew about it. This is tax avoidance on an industrial scale. A third of the entries on the data we have seen - the data from [the whistleblower Herve Falciani], we haven’t seen the rest - is written up by your officials. And there are endless visits to Britain to sign credit card forms, to endless things. I don’t believe you didn’t know.

At another point Hodge said that one of Fairhead’s claims about the audit committee having proper procedures in place was “almost laughable”. Stephen Hammond, a Conservative MP on the committee, said Meares was an “unreliable witness”.

  • Hodge criticised the bank officials for not taking responsibility for what went wrong.

In the public sector, if things go wrong on your watch, whether or not you were individually involved, you accept responsibility and resign. Neither of you, nobody in the bank, either at this hearing or at the hearing at the Treasury select committee, has deigned to accept responsibility for what was a massive, massive, illegal, terrible tax evasion.

That’s all from me for today.

Thanks for the comments.

Updated

This is from my colleague James Ball.

Hodge tells Fairhead to resign - Full quote

Here is the key exchange between Margaret Hodge and Rona Fairhead, when Hodge told Fairhead to resign as chair of the BBC Trust.

MH: I want to come to you, Ms Fairhead, and I’m going to say something. It’s a bit unpleasant to say, and I’m just saying it as a licence fee payer. Having watched your performance this afternoon I’ve got to say this to you, that either you knew and you

RF: I categorically deny that.

MH: Or you didn’t know. And in that case you are either incredibly naive or totally incompetent. I don’t think that the record that you have shown in your performance here as a guardian of HSBC gives me the confidence that you should be the guardian of the BBC licence fee payers’ money. I reallly do think that you should consider your position and you should think about resigning and if not, I think the government should sack you.

The session with Edward Troup has been postponed.

That means that’s all from the public accounts committee for today.

I will post a summary soon.

My colleague Juliette Garside has more on the protester who was thrown out of the hearing.

Stephen Hammond, a Conservartive, says he wants to disassociate himself from what Margaret Hodge said about Fairhead.

But he does agree with her comments in relation to Meares. He says he found Meares an “unreliable witness”.

Hodge says she was expressing a personal view.

She says she thought about this all weekend. She has met Fairhead once, and liked her. But she came to the conclusion she should go.

The HSBC part of the hearing is now over. The committee is still due to take evidence from Edward Troup, tax assurance commissioner at HMRC.

I will post a summary soon.

Updated

Q: Have you sacked any compliance officers in Switzerland who are suing you for unfair dismissal?

Gulliver says he does not know about that. He will write to the committee.

A protester starts shouting. He is taken out of the room.

Gulliver says in 2012 HSBC changed the rules to stop people taking huge amounts of cash out of an account.

He says people taking out large amounts of cash are not automatically evading tax. But it does indicate a risk.

Q: Why else would you want to do that?

Gulliver says if you were a Middle Eastern client, with $5bn in the bank, you might want to take out $5m in cash. That would be quite normal.

In some of these countries there is not much tax to pay anyway.

Hodge tells Fairhead to resign as chair of BBC Trust

Margaret Hodge tells Fairhead either she knew ..

I categorically deny that, Fairhead says.

Hodge says, in that case she is either naive or incompetent.

She says she does not trust her to be the guardian of the licence fee money as chair of the BBC Trust. She should resign. If she doesn’t, the government should sack her, she says.

  • Hodge tells Fairhead to resign as chair of BBC Trust.

Fairhead says she refutes what Hodge said.

She says she was driving change, and making the management more efficient and clearer.

She says she has been leading the move for change.

Hodge replies:

I’m afraid you’ve lost my trust.

Updated

Hodge says HSBC chiefs either 'incompetent' or knew about tax evasion

Margaret Hodge says she cannot believe what Meares and Fairhead are saying. There is tons of data in the leaked information showing the bank colluding in tax evasions.

She quotes from some of the leaked records. And there are records of meetings taking place in London. There is a reference to “out of scope” products.

She quotes from another passage. A bank official asked a customer to sign a certain form. “That is tax avoidance,” she says.

Another customer was involved in tax dodging, even though his relative was a compliance officer at another bank.

This goes on and on, she says.

Either you were incompetent, completely and utterly incompetent, in your oversight duties, or you knew about it ... I don’t believe you did not know.

Meares says he did not see any of that data.

Q: I’m saying I don’t believe you didn’t know.

Meares says the first he heard about this was when the Guardian sent it to him in January.

Updated

Fairhead says it was not until 2009 that HSBC learnt how serious the leak of customer information was.

It still has not seen all the data, she says.

It then initiated a project to ascertain that the bank was not engaged in tax evasion.

Alan Rusbridger, the Guardian’s editor, has been tweeting about the HSBC evidence.

Q: You only closed your private account in Panama in 2009.

Gulliver confirms that. He repeats the point about being domiciled in Hong Kong.

Gulliver says he is not blaming his predecessor.

Q: Are you blaming him for this?

No, says Gulliver.

There was an out of date structure in place at the time. That was the problem.

Q: What is the audit committee for?

It is there to oversee the management and hold the executive to account, says Fairhead.

The initial analysis of Switzerland said there was no evidence of wrong-doing there.

The audit committee had to rely on the experts it used, she says.

Q: You paid £53m to external auditors. Have you asked for the money back?

No, says Gulliver.

He says the internal audits have been made much tougher.

Hodge says Fairhead's stance 'almost laughable"

Labour’s Austin Mitchell is asking questions now.

He says the audit committee sounds like “money for jam”.

He quotes from an official report into the money laundering at the HSBC’s operation in Mexico.

Fairhead says, as soon as the problem was identified, the audit committee did all it could to fix the problem.

Margaret Hodge says Fairhead’s answer is “almost laughable”.

We were on top of it, says Fairhead.

You weren’t on top of it, says Hodge.

Updated

Gulliver says he has lost £1.7m in bonus payments because of what went wrong.

But it would not be right for him to lose money because of what happened before he even took charge.

Dame Anne McGuire goes next.

Q: Are you saying you, as an audit committee, never got a breakdown of the types of accounts the Swiss branch was offering?

Fairhead says she cannot recall the hold mail account issue being brought to the committee.

Q: Gulliver said earlier that hold mail accounts were used to evade or avoid tax. Why did the audit committee not look at this?

Fairhead says this issue was not brought to the committee.

McGuire says this is a creative interpretation of the words “risk” and “audit”.

Margaret Hodge says in the public sector people accept responsibility when something goes wrong. She tells the three witnesses they have failed to do this themselves.

Q: Did you ever raise the issue of hold mail accounts?

Fairhead says it came up when they were looking at reforming the private bank.

Q: [To Fairhead] You said there were system failings. Given that you were in charge of the systems, don’t you have to go.

No, says Fairhead.

Q: Someone has to take responsibility?

Fairhead says she could only deal with the information she had.

She has been unyielding, she says.

Margaret Hodge says MPs on the committee do a similar job. They get evidence put to them. They have to decide whether or not to question it. She says she has never seen a non-exec paid £500,000 for the number of days Fairhead does. She suggests Fairhead should resign.

Fairhead says, when she was head of the risk committee, she was paid hte normal non-exec fee.

For her US role she is paid £334,000. That is in line with the other directors on the US board.

Q: For how many days a week.

Fairhead says she works a week and a half on HSBC. She works 75 to 100 days a week. She corrects herself. 75 to 100 days a year. That is what the board of HSBC thinks is appropriate.

Q: So you are doing 100 days a year for HSBC.

Yes, if you include weekends.

Q: And what about the BBC.

Fairhead says it is 150 to 180 days.

Hodge says Meares is 'ruddy evasive'

Stephen Hammond, a Conservative, goes next.

Q: [To Meares] Who reported to you from Switzerland?

Meares says there were two people. He met them at quarterly board meetings, and probably every month.

Q: Did they lie to you?

Meares says he is not saying that. He does not know what they knew.

Q: You are saying they did not know what their client managers were doing.

Meares says he does not know.

Margaret Hodge interrupts. She tells him to stop being “so ruddy evasive”.

Q: Do you think they didn’t know?

Meares says they would not have known what individuals were doing.

Q: But they must have known the overall policies.

Yes, says Meares.

Q: You knew Swiss law.

Meares says he did not know Swiss law.

Hodge says he must have known why people had accounts in the country.

One MP (Stewart Jackson) jokes that they were not there for the chocolate and the cheese.

Updated

Q: Did you ask about the hold mail accounts?

Fairhead says the Swiss branch only accounted for 2% of business.

Q: You were responsible for risk and audit. But these accounts were problematic.

Margaret Hodge says Gulliver said just now that the systems were not in place. But you are saying you could rely on the systems to ensure that proper checks were carried out.

Fairhead says at the time they thought proper supervisory procedures were in place. With hindsight, it is clear that there were problems.

Fairhead says they relied on two things: management oversight, and the culture of HSBC, which was considered to be very sound.

But, as HSBC acquired new businesses, it became clear the structures were wrong.

Hodge says that, if the structures were fit for purpose, there would not have been tax evasion worth £135m. She says it is “nonsense” for Fairhead to suggest the procedures were sound.

Q: Did you ask if tax evasion and avoidance contributed to the profitability of the Swiss branch?

Fairhead says she would expect everything to be done to comply with company policy.

Q: Did you ask the question?

Yes, in different ways.

She says they were “unyeilding”. We were on top of it.

Q: You were so on top of it you did not discover it until the information was leaked.

Fairhead says it is reasonable to ask non-executive directors to rely on the procedures in place.

Margaret Hodge goes next. She asks Rona Fairhead what she knew.

Rona Fairhead says the people who are most culpable are those who evade tax.

She also holds the frontline staff responsible. She also holds the management in Switzerland accountable.

Margaret Hodge says Fairhead is paid £10,000 a day. She does not know what she does for that.

Fairhead says that figure is not true.

There was management in place to ensure policies were complied with, she says.

Stephen Phillips, a Conservative, goes next.

He says HSBC is asking them to believe that no one in London knew what was happening in Switzerland. He says he finds that hard to believe. It was blind eye knowledge, he says. HSBC was turning a blind eye.

Updated

Gulliver says the bank was “a loose federation” at the time.

Q: Doesn’t it beggar belief that nobody outside Switzerland knew what was going on there? These high net worth individuals had been brought in because their firms banked with other parts of HSBC.

Gulliver says the private bank is now completely integrated into HSBC.

Margaret Hodge says she cannot believe that there was no synergy before 2010 between banking for high net worth individuals and corporate banking.

Meares says, if an individual did not say they had an account with HSBC in Switzerland, the bankers in London would not know.

Q: But isn’t it standard banking practice, if you have corporate clients, to try to get them to bank with you privately too.

Gulliver says he does not know the extent to which that happened.

Meares says betwen 2006 and 2011, if a corporate UK customer said they wanted a Swiss account, he would know.

Gulliver says the HSBC bank was regulated by top-notch regulators.

That meant there was a limit to what further checks HCBC could make when it bought the Swiss operation.

HSBC bought this bank, and others, because it did not want to be over-exposed to Asia, he says.

Dame Anne McGuire is asking question now.

Q: Why do you think customers might want a “hold mail” account (an account where the bank does not write to the customer)?

Meares says people wanted these accounts for reasons of accountability. And some of them had different accounts.

Q: When did HSBC stop these accounts?

Gulliver said HSBC carried out a review of these accounts. The number of hold mail accounts was cut from 14,000 to 12.

Q: Why did it take you so long to get rid of these accounts?

Gulliver says he started to change HSBC when he became chief executive.

The trigger was the money laundering problems in Mexico.

That made him conclude the loose federal structure of the bank was not appropriate.

Q: Do you think hold mail accounts were use to avoid or evade tax?

Yes, says Gulliver. That is why the bank stopped them.

Today’s session is already turning pretty brutal.

David Burrowes, a Conservative, is asking questions now.

Q: Did you have any hint that tax evasion was going on?

Meares says he was not.

Margaret Hodge is asking questions. She addresses Meares.

Meares says Switzerland was about 30% of the private banking business.

He was responsible for supervising the Swiss operation. But he was not in day to day charge.

He says there were “control failings” at the Swiss operation.

Q: Are you the fall guy? Do you accept full responsibility?

Meares says he accepts responsibility for the control failings that may have happened when he was in charge.

Q: Personal responsibility?

Meares says he takes responsibility.

Q: Do you take direct responsibility? Yes or no?

Meares says he is taking more than fairly direct responsibility. He takes responsibility.

Q: Do you take direct responsibility? Answer yes or no.

Meares says he takes fairly direct responsibility for what happened with global private banking during his responsibility.

It has to be placed in context.

He does not take responsibility for the individual actions in Switzerland of which he was not aware.

Q: Did these arrangements cause reputational damage to the bank?

Gulliver says his failure to persuade people there was an innocent reason for this has damaged the reputation of the bank.

Q: Are you appropriate to remain as chief executive?

Gulliver says he thinks he is, because his tax affairs are in order.

He has tightened HSBC and made it a simpler business.

Hodge says Gulliver had his salary paid through a shell company based in Panama.

She says he is expecting the committee to believe this was just for reasons of privacy. But it is hard to believe that, she says.

Stuart Gulliver, the HSBC chief executive, Chris Meares, the former chief executive of HSBC global private banking and Rona Fairhead, an HSBC director (and the BBC Trust chair), are giving evidence now.

Margaret Hodge, the public accounts committee chair, is speaking now.

She gets Gulliver to confirm that he has a British passport, pays tax in the UK and votes in the UK.

Updated

HSBC, HMRC and Rona Fairhead questioned about tax avoidance at HSBC

The public accounts committee has just started taking evidence from HSBC about tax dodging at HSBC.

Here’s the Guardian’s preview story.

Cameron and the grammar school 'albatross' - What he said then and now

During the Q&A Cameron was asked by the Daily Mail’s Jason Groves about grammar schools. Groves said he once said grammar schools were an “albatross” for his party. Did he still think that?

Cameron replied:

I have never said that grammar schools are an albatross. Grammar schools are good schools. And I like good schools.

But that is very hard to square with what he said in 2007.

I suppose, if you were being charitable, you could argue that Cameron was saying then that it was a pledge to build more grammar schools that would be an albatross, not that the schools themselves were albatrosses.

Or perhaps his memory failed him (although the Daily Mail printed the quote this morning, so he should have seen it, or had it drawn to his attention.)

A more simple explanation would be that, when responding to the question, Cameron was not being truthful.

UPDATE: A better way of explaining it would be to say that Cameron was asked a reasonable and direct question, and chose to dodge by giving a misleading answer. He may never have directly called grammar schools albatrosses, but he certainly said the issue was an albatross for his party (as Jason Groves said in his question). Cameron’s answer may not have been dishonest, but it was certainly not straight.

Updated

David Cameron denied calling grammar schools an “albatross” a few minutes ago. (See 2.43pm.)

But he did use that phrase in relation to grammar schools in 2007. This is what he said.

Far from being some winning slogan, a pledge to build more grammar schools would be an electoral albatross.

Q: Why are you going to spend money creating new schools, where some places won’t be filled, when overall schools face a real-terms cut?

Cameron says the capital budget for schools is going up.

Generally, there have been three applicants for every free school place, he says.

Cameron confirms he won't attend the TV debates planned for April

Q: Labour claim you are planning spending cuts of £70bn. What will be cut?

Cameron says he has set out what he plans on welfare and departmental spending. Labour are just proposing more borrowing and more debt. It is because the government has made tough decision that money is available for schools.

Q: Why do you claim to be trying to unblock the logjam with TV debates when it seems to be you creating the jam?

Cameron says he has put forward a clear proposal for a debate. He want to changing his mind on the other proposals, he says.

  • Cameron confirms that he won’t attend the three leaders’ debates planned for April.

Updated

Q: How many of the new free schools will be technical schools?

Cameron says it is up to the schools to decide.

He says people mistakenly think academic and vocational education are totally different. But, even in vocational education, pupils need to learn basic English and maths skills.

Cameron's Q&A

Cameron is taking questions now.

Q: You said a few years ago grammar schools are an albatross for your party. Is that why you are delaying a decision on the new one in Kent?

Cameron says he never said that. Grammar schools are good schools. He likes good schools. He has always said, if they want to expand, they should.

Q: Will you keep defence spending at 2% of GDP?

Cameron says the defence equipment budget will continue to grow. And he says he does not want to see the size of the army reduce.

Q: Can you confirm that your daughter Nancy has got a place at Grey Coat school?

Yes, says Cameron.

Updated

Cameron is summing up now.

My motto in life is “family first”.

I apply it to my own life and to my politics.

At their best, families are resilient – tight-knit units which can weather anything.

And if you doubt it, just think of what your family has gone through over the years and how you’ve come through it together.

But at the same time families are vulnerable – vulnerable to shocks, vulnerable to financial pressure.

Job losses or money worries can tear them apart.

I believe financial security for families is one of Government’s foremost duties.

It’s what I’m in politics to deliver – a better life for you and your children.

Every time I champion an economic success, it’s because it’s been a success for families.

When I celebrate the reopening of a brick factory, it’s not because I love bricks…

…it’s because I love to see all those staff doing their jobs with pride, knowing they’re going home to their families with a wage.

Every time I celebrate the opening of a Free School it’s not because I love cutting ribbons or taking selfies with the students…

…it’s because I’m so glad, so relieved that more parents can, like me, share the peace of mind you feel when your child is getting a great education.

Cameron turns to savings, and says that four weeks from today over-55s will have access to their pension pots.

On schools, Cameron says that he and his wife are glad their daughter has just got a place at a good state secondary school in London.

He turns to the free schools announcement released overnight by Number 10 (and trailed in the Guardian on Saturday.)

Cameron turns to housing.

One problem was the mortgages were too high. But interest rates have been kept down.

Another problem was that people could not afford a deposit. Help to Buy has addressed that.

And a third problem was lack of supply. The government has released more land for building, changed planning rules, and drawn up plans for two new garden cities.

Cameron turns to childcare. Most families spend a quarter of their income on this, he says.

This is not just an issue for women or parents. It’s a national issue.

So we’ve acted…

… increasing the number of free childcare hours for 3 and 4 year olds …

… introducing 15 free hours for the 40 per cent most disadvantaged 2 year olds …

… and in the next parliament perhaps the most transformative change to childcare in decades – making it tax free.

Cameron praises the government’s record on jobs. And he says the government has put more money in the pockets of families, by measures like increasing the personal allowance and freezing fuel duty.

Cameron says there are five factors that contribute to family security: jobs, money, homes, schools and savings.

David Cameron's education and families speech

David Cameron is delivering his education and families speech now.

He says he wants to ensure that his economic plan actually delivers real help to people.

It all comes back to security, he says. That is what next week’s budget will be about, ensuring families feel secure.

Robert Peston, the BBC’s economics editor, has pronounced on Ed Balls’ speech on his blog.

First, he points out that George Osborne may actually revise his fiscal targets in next week’s budget. The Independent’s John Rentoul sums up this point in a tweet.

Second, Peston argues that achieving savings might not be as impossible as Balls suggests.

Finding a bit less than £30bn of additional spending cuts, as a Tory government would have to do, would be challenging - in that departments have endured years of squeeze already, and welfare savings are notoriously hard to deliver.

But Ed Balls’s central argument today that it would be completely impossible for a Tory government to protect health spending is probably not quite as watertight as he implies.

IFS says Balls right about big gap between parties, but won't back £70bn cuts claim

Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, was on the World at One just now. Asked about Ed Balls’ claim that Tory spending plans would involve cuts worth £70bn, not £30bn, he refused to endorse it, suggesting it was based on assumptions different from those used by the IFS. Johnson stuck with the £30bn figure.

I don’t know about the £70bn. You can talk about all sorts of different numbers. The £70bn takes a particular set of assumptions, and in particular says that the Conservatives will do what the autumn statement numbers say they will do, which is a bit different actually to the fiscal rules the Conservatives have set themselves. But there is a difference of around about £25bn or £30bn between the two parties in terms of the level of fiscal consolidation and therefore the sorts of level of spending cuts they are talking about. So Labour would introduce less in the way of spending cuts than the Conservatives. Of course, there’s a flipside of that, in terms of the debt and the deficit.

But he said Balls was right to say there was a big difference between the two parties’ plans.

Ed Balls is right about one thing. There is quite a big difference between what the Labour party is saying it would do and what the Conservative party is saying it would do.

Updated

Lunchtime summary

Grant Shapps accuses Ed Balls of talking 'nonsense'

Here’s Grant Shapps, the Conservative chairman, responding to Ed Balls’ speech on BBC News. He accused Balls of talking “nonsense”.

I think Balls has lost his marbles on this. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has said the figure is £30bn and we have already explained exactly how we will do that - £13bn from departments, £12bn from welfare reductions and £5bn from closing tax loopholes.

In a speech worked out on the back of an envelope, he has suddenly claimed wild figures and accusations, saying we will take government finances back to the days of Cromwell. Nonsense - the IFS says we will be taking spending back to the years of 2003-04 when as far as I know it wasn’t Cromwell in the treasury, it was one Ed Balls.

I’ve taken the quote from PoliticsHome.

Ed Balls' speech - Summary and analysis

It is fashionable to knock negative campaigning. Politicians will never own up to being engaged in it, and pundits dismiss it as unpleasant and corrosive, and likely to alienate people from politics.

Yet, in principle, there should be nothing wrong with it. First, if you think your opponents plans really would be disastrous, you should be entitled to say so. And second, there is plenty of evidence it works.

And that explains what Ed Balls was up to today. Remember the fuss about the BBC’s Norman Smith telling Radio 4 on the morning after the autumn statement (slightly jokingly) that George Osborne’s longterm spending plans would take us back to The Road to Wigan Pier? Balls was making the same argument today, with rocket boosters. It had all the hallmarks of a Gordon Brown attack operation when Brown was at the height of his powers: huge numbers, denominated in billions; argumentative, economic one-upmanship; and a total absence of understatement.

After the autumn statement there was some evidence that the public recoiled from what was being proposed by George Osborne. Can Balls produce the same effect again today? He certainly gave it a good try; it might have been scaremongering, but it was evidence-based scaremongering. But it might not be quite enough to win the argument, because the Tories best defence lies with the chart 1.1 on page 7 of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s December economic and fiscal outlook (pdf).

This shows that, although the OBR was right when it said public spending was due to fall to 35,2% of GDP in 2019-20, its lowest level since the 1930s, that was only marginally lower than the level in 1999-00, when Labour was in power.

Here are the key points from the speech.

  • Balls said that the Conservatives would need to cut spending by £70bn to meet their fiscal targets. (See 11.37am.)
  • He said that, in unprotected budgets, this was equivalent to cuts that would take the army to its smallest size since Cromwell. Non-protected departmental budgets would have to be cut by 35% between 2015-16 and 2019-20, he said.

Our analysis shows this would mean:

At a time when the terror threat is increasing and child protection under great pressure, huge cuts in the Home Office Budget, the equivalent of 29,900 police officers and 6,700 PCSOs lost.

Under these deeply risky plans the Tories would have cut police numbers by a third since 2010 and would take the overall numbers of police below 100,000 – well below the smallest force since comparable records began.

At a time when there is such instability on Russia’s borders, the Middle East is in turmoil and the Jihadist threat from Africa is growing, huge cuts in the defence budget - the equivalent of 34,500 fewer soldiers in the Army, and 60,800 fewer personnel in the Armed Forces. This would be our smallest Army since Cromwell and the smallest Armed Forces since 1750.

At a time when huge pressures on social care are already having a knock-on impact on our NHS, these 1930s Tory spending plans would mean further deep cuts in the social care budget too.

Our analysis shows these extreme cuts would be the equivalent to over a third of the older people receiving social care losing their entitlement to it.

  • He said that, if Osborne wanted to avoid some of these consequences, he would have to increase VAT or cut health spending. This could involve more charges being introduced for healthcare, he said.
  • He said that Labour did not want a coalition with the SNP and that the Tories were only raising this to distract attention from other issues. He also implied they were being hypocritical because the Tories supported the minority SNP administration in Edinburgh from 2007 to 2011.

The SNP have said they don’t want a coalition. It’s not part of our plans. We don’t want one, we don’t need one, we’re not after one.

No large party in the last 100 years - Labour or Conservative - has ever fought a general election on the basis they wanted a coalition or deal with a small party. It’s the last thing we want. What we want is a majority Labour government.

And the only reason we are being asked these questions is because the Tories - who, by the way, did a deal with the SNP in Scotland just a few years ago - don’t want to debate why David Cameron is ducking the leaders’ debates and they don’t want to tell us where they are going to fill the £70bn gap.

  • He said that defence cuts would be greater under the Tories than under Labour.

First of all, our cuts, in any part of public spending, are going to go nowhere near the huge scale of defence cuts you are going to see under the Conservatives on the basis of these plans.

He also hinted at his support for keeping defence spending at 2% of GDP. Asked what he thought of this, he replied:

I think it is really important that we live up to our international responsibilities.

He also pointed out that Labour halted defence cuts when they came to power in 1997.

Updated

Here’s Danny Alexander, the Lib Dem chief secretary to the Treasury, on Ed Balls’ speech.

Both Labour and the Conservatives are saying they will lurch away from the centre ground. Labour will borrow too much and the Conservatives will cut too much. The Liberal Democrats have been the rock of financial stability during this recovery.

How Ed Balls justifies his claim that Tories would cut spending by £70bn

Here’s the key passage from Ed Balls’ speech. It’s the one where he explains his claim that Tory spending cuts would amount to £70bn, not £30bn as the party claims.

First, the £30bn cut the Tories claim they are going to make after the election is not for the whole Parliament, but for the first two full years – 2016/17 and 2017/18 – only.

If we look at their own spending forecasts over the full period - up to 2019-20 - the actual minimum planned reduction in public spending is £37bn.

But that does not take into account other areas where spending is due to rise over the next parliament, or where commitments have been made to cut tax.

To achieve those planned spending increases and promised tax cuts, the scale of spending cuts in other areas must increase even beyond £37bn to meet the Treasury’s targets on the deficit.

So second, we look at planned increase in spending on pensions and social security which is forecast to rise from £218bn in 2015-16 to £241bn in 2019-20.

That takes the scale of the cuts required in other areas to £55bn.

Third, capital spending is also forecast to rise. That will require even bigger cuts to day-to-day spending to meet the Chancellor’s deficit target, taking the total up to £59bn.

A figure confirmed by the IFS in their 2015 Green Budget.

Fourth, the commitment to maintain spending on Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) at 0.7 per cent of Gross National Income adds a further £1bn to the cuts required elsewhere, because – to maintain that commitment – ODA spending must rise slightly faster than inflation.

Fifth and finally, the Tories have also committed to make a number of tax cuts at some stage over the next Parliament.

Unlike Labour’s plans, these Tory tax promises are totally unfunded and they have not specified when these will come in.

The only stipulation the Tories have made is that, in order not to disrupt the Treasury’s stated plans on the deficit, they should be paid for from additional cuts in spending.

Our calculations take the cautious assumption that they will be introduced in the final full year of the next Parliament.

That would cost £10bn a year according to the House of Commons Library.

Putting these five hidden factors together, we can see that - in order to keep all their commitments on spending, tax and the deficit - the Tories would in the next five years need to make spending cuts which add up to a staggering total of £70bn.

The scale of these £70bn of cuts is unprecedented.

Lord Molyneaux, former Ulster Unionist leader, has died

The former Ulster Unionist party leader, Lord Molyneaux, has died. This is from the Press Association.

Former Ulster Unionist Party leader Lord Molyneaux has died at the age of 94, his party has announced.

James Molyneaux led the UUP from 1979 to 1995.

A soldier during the Second World War, he was among the first British troops to enter the Bergen Belsen concentration camp in 1945.

He was knighted in 1996 and became a life peer in 1997, taking the title Lord Molyneaux of Killead.

UUP leader Mike Nesbitt paid tribute.

“He brought a stability to the unionist party at a time when it was much needed,” he said.

Nesbitt said the UUP had lost “one of its greatest”.

“Lord Molyneaux led the party during some of Northern Ireland’s most bloody and turbulent years, providing leadership not only to the Ulster Unionist Party during that time, but also to the country,” he said.

“He led for 16 years, a remarkable feat given the party had no fewer than four different leaders in the 16 years prior to him taking over. The stability he offered was critical, as was his unbending passion for securing Northern Ireland’s place within the Union. This was particularly key during the aftermath of the Anglo-Irish Agreement, a challenge of seismic proportions within Unionism.”

The Tories are already hitting back at Ed Balls using the Tory Treasury Twitter account, an official one.

Here’s the full text of Ed Balls’ speech.

Q: What is the single biggest threat to the future of our public services?

A Conservative government trying to implement these spending cuts, he says.

And that’s it. The Q&A is over.

I’ll post a summary soon.

Balls says that Labour would not let their plans to devolve spending powers to local councils stop councils fulfilling their obligations to build more homes.

Q: Will you ringfence the Foreign Office budget? It is going to have to deal with many crises in the coming years.

No, says Balls. The Foreign Office will have to play its part in finding cuts. But he accepts it has a vital role has to play. The Foreign Office will have to do a zero-based review, like the Treasury.

The Labour party is tweeting this, summarising Ed Balls’ argument.

Balls says Osborne does not appreciate how a growing economy, and growing tax revenues, can contribute to deficit reduction. He is more of a historian than an economist.

Balls says Osborne wants to cut the deficit purely through cuts.

Labour would get rid of the deficit through a mixture of cuts, tax rises and measures to stimulate the economy.

Q: What would you do about free bus passes for pensioners?

Balls says Labour would keep them. They introduced them. As people get older, they can sometimes drive less.

But the richest 5% of pensioners would lose their winter fuel payments.

Q: What is the size of the consolidation you would require in the first year.

Balls says, unlike the Tories, he is not planning tax cuts worth £10bn, or a £23bn surplus. So that frees up £33bn straight away.

From 2016-17, Labour would start from the government’s plans. Any changes to those would have to be paid for, he says.

Q: Should defence spending remain at 2% of GDP?

Balls says it is very important that Britain lives up to its international responsibilities.

But the fiscal challenge is big. Labour has said it will continue to cut spending in unprotected areas.

But Labour’s defence cuts would not be as severe as the Conservatives, he says.

And Labour would have a full defence review.

Q: Can you categorically rule out a deal with the SNP?

Balls says the SNP have said they don’t want a coalition with Labour.

He says no party in the last 100 years has fought an election proposing a coalition.

And it was the Tories who did a deal with the SNP in the Scottish parliament in 2007, he says.

Q: You voted with the Tories to cut the deficit by 2017-18. But on the Today programme Chris Leslie said that you might not cut the deficit until 2020. Which is it?

Balls says the vote was for a plan to cut the deficit over the three-year rolling timetable, which is consistent with Labour’s position.

Q: What would Labour do about the problem of financial exclusion and debt?

Balls says the key thing is to keep people in stable employment that pays.

Q: Aren’t you just scaremongering?

Balls says, before the last election, the Tories said Labour was scaremongering when it said VAT would go up, SureStart centres would be closed and tax credits cut. But that it what happened.

He says his analysis is based on OBR numbers.

These cuts are unprecedented. They would take us back to the 1930s. That is not scaremongering. Those are the facts.

Balls says he does not think the Tories would abolish the Foreign Office or the Department for Transport.

But they would have to find the money somewhere else.

Labour is just asking what they would do.

You can’t have a prime minister who refuses to debate, because people do not believe him.

Q: Will you do a deal with the SNP?

Balls says this is a scare from the Tories. David Cameron does not want to talk about debates, and he does not want to talk about his £70bn spending cuts. Labour wants a majority, and that is what it is focusing on.

Updated

Q: [From a Labour supporter] Thank you for treating us like grown ups, and giving us a proper analsis. That’s it.

Balls jokes that is the kind of question he likes.

Updated

Q: You are criticising the Tories, but not saying what cuts you would make.

Balls says the Tories want a surplus of £23bn by 2020. He is saying that is extreme. There is a clear choice.

The Labour plan is more balanced.

And the party has set out “a huge amount of detail” about his plans.

He would get rid of the deficit in three ways.

First, it would make sensible cuts. It has set out some.

Second, it would take difficult to raise taxes, such as putting the top-rate back up to 50%.

Third, it would promote economic growth, by backing increases in the minimum wage.

Balls' Q&A

Ed Balls is now taking questions.

Q: Young people are worried about youth unemployment. What would you do about it?

Balls says we learnt from the 1980s that if you allow youth unemployment to persist, it does long-term damage. That is why Labour would introduce a jobs guarantee, to ensure young people do not get stuck in longterm unemployment.

Balls summarises Labour economic policies.

And he says the choice for voters is now clear.

And the Tories have a choice. They can accept that these are the implications of their plans. Or they can admit their plans do not add up.

And that’s it. The speech is over.

Balls says Labour is now the centre ground party in British politics.

Unlike the Tories, they are not making unfunded commitments.

They want the OBR to be able to audit their plans.

Balls says his plans are different from the Tories.

First, there would have to be sensible cuts in some areas. For example, richer pensioners would lose the winter fuel payments.

The zero-based review has already published eight interim reports.

The recommendations include: saving £250m from the police budget, by getting rid of police and crime commissioners and improving police procurement; saving £500m from the communities budget by sharing services and backoffice collaboration; saving £70m from the courts budget by co-locating county and magistrates courts; saving £230m from wasteful expenditure on free schools; and saving £60m from savings in the defence budget.

Balls says Tories would have to raise VAT or cut health spending

Balls says the Tories have form when it comes to breaking their promises on the NHS.

The Tories would have to raise VAT, or cut health spending, Balls says, to meet their plans. They would have no other options.

  • Balls says Osborne would have to raise VAT, or cut NHS spending, to achieve his spending goals.

Updated

Balls suggests that another option for Osborne might be to introduce charges into the health service.

Countries with public spending at 35% of GDP or lower have health systems were charging for health services is three times higher than it is in the UK.

It would be inevitable that the NHS would end up footing the bill, he says.

Balls says the implications are so colossal that George Osborne may have to put up taxes.

Is he planning to raise VAT? Balls says, when asked about this in parliament, Osborne just said he had “no plans” to raise VAT. The public won’t be fooled, he says.

Balls is now running through the impact of the Tory plans on departments with unprotected budgets.

The army would be reduced to its smallest size since Oliver Cromwell, he says.

The police would be smaller than at any time since records began.

And the cuts to social care would be equivalent to a third of people receiving care not getting it.

Balls says Tory spending cuts would be worth £70bn, not £30bn as they claim

Balls says today he is publishing his analysis of what Labour thinks will happen to public spending if the Conservatives are re-elected.

Discretionary cuts to spending are not worth £30bn, as the Tories claim, but more than twice as much, he says.

Balls says he will identify five reasons why the picture is worse than the Tories claim.

First, the Tory claim that they will cut spending by £30bn only covers the first two years of the parliament, 2016-17 and 2017-16.

Second, welfare spending will rise. That will require further cuts in other areas.

Third, capital spending will continue to rise. That will require bigger cuts to day-to-day spending. So far, these figures take the value of the cuts to £59bn.

Fourth, the Tories are committed to maintaining aid spending. This would require it to rise faster than inflation, putting pressure on other parts of the budget.

Fifth, the Tories are committed to tax cuts. Even assuming these just come in at the end of the parliament, these will cost £10bn.

Balls says, taken together, these factors mean that the proposed Conservative cuts would be worth £70bn.

  • Tories would have to cut public spending by £70bn, much more than they are admitting, Ed Balls says.

Balls says the government has not been able to get rid of the deficit because tax receipts have been lower than expected.

And the Office for Budget Responsibility expects the problem to continue into the next parliament, he says.

George Osborne knew this before the autumn statement, he says.

He could have chosen to relax the pace of spending cuts accordingly.

But instead, dogmatically, he chose to stick to his planned spending cuts. Robert Chote, the chair of the OBR, said that the spending plans would take public spending to its lowest level as a share of GDP since the 1930s.

The Tories have tried to claim their plans are not as extreme as people think. Osborne even lashed out at the BBC for reporting what the OBR said about public spending falling to 1930s levels, Balls says.

Balls says the Conservatives promises to increase living standards and balance the books.

But wages are down since 2010, he says.

For the first time since the 1920s, the average person will be worse off at the end of this parliament than at the beginning. To Ronald Reagan’s famous question, are you better off than you were at the last election, the answer is a resounding no, he says.

Ed Balls speech on Conservative spending plans

Ed Balls is delivering his speech now.

He says this will be the most important election of his lifetime.

It will decide whether Britain remains in Europe, whether it makes the changes necessary to reform its economy, and whether it tackles the deficit without putting services at risk.

Populus poll gives Labour 1-point lead

Populus has published its latest poll.

And Number Cruncher Politics makes this point.

Nicky Morgan rules out Tories letting firms run schools for profit

Nicky Morgan, the education secretary, was also on the Today programme this morning, giving an interview ahead of David Cameron’s speech on free schools. Here are the key points she made.

Morgan said the Conservatives would not allow firms to run schools for profit. Asked if she would rule out a future Conservative government allowing this, she replied:

Yes I can rule it out. I think having for-profit education is something that would make me feel very uncomfortable and it is not something that is needed. We have excellent sponsors like charities and others or parent groups wanting to run schools and they are doing an excellent job up and down the country.

  • She accused Labour of not caring about the quality of school places available to parents.

The Labour party – what they would like to do is to say it doesn’t matter about the quality of places, if there is a place in the local area then parents that’s what you have to accept and get on with. That’s absolutely not where we are.

  • She claimed free schools had been a “huge success story”.

We know from our own evidence that 72% of free school heads say that they are having a positive impact on local schools in their area, they are driving up standards and they are giving parents more choice about having a great local school in their area.

These are schools where the money comes directly from the department to the schools, where it is run by those who know the children best, who know education best. I think that is very important.

I’ve taken the quotes from PoliticsHome.

Updated

Danny Alexander, the Lib Dem chief secretary to the Treasury, has an interview in the Daily Telegraph today.

The paper has written it up as Alexander saying the Lib Dems will ban “potty” plans from George Osborne for pre-election tax cuts for high earners (although there is no evidence that this is what Osborne is planning in the first place). Alexander told the Telegraph:

The idea that we’d go for a fiscal loosening at the end of the Parliament, having been so firm on getting the deficit down for year – that would be completely potty.

Alexander also strongly hints that the budget will include a further increase in the income tax allowance. Asked about this, he replied:

I’m not going to get into what Budget decisions might be, but of course Nick Clegg and I take every opportunity we can to advance the case for delivering on that policy.

I committed several years ago to taking the personal allowance to £12,500 in the next Parliament. So I’m taking every opportunity to push with further progress with that.

Today's Guardian seat projection

Here’s today’s Guardian seat projection.

Conservatives: 274

Labour: 271

SNP: 52

Lib Dems: 27

Ukip: 4

Greens: 1

Here are some of the main points from Chris Leslie’s Today interview earlier. (See 7.41am.)

  • Leslie said the planned Conservative cuts would have a “cataclysmic” impact on social care.

The choice is between the cataclysmic scenario in which up to 240,000 people, elderly people, are going to have their social care taken away.

  • He said the Conservatives would find it impossible to keep defence spending at 2% of GDP under their plans. He would not say how much Labour would spend on defence.

I do understand why people want to have that 2% target. I can’t give you commitments. I know it will be difficult to keep it that level at the 2% of GDP. I can tell you it is absolutely impossible on the Conservative trajectory.

  • He said Labour wanted to get rid of the deficit “as soon as possible in the next parliament”. That meant by 2020 at the latest, he said, but the party would hope to achieve that sooner.

There are 59 days to go until the general election.

Here is today’s “election fact” from the Press Association.

MPs who wish to resign from the Commons between General Elections have to go through an ancient process, applying to the Chancellor for the stewardship of the Chiltern Hundreds of Stoke, Desborough and Burnham in Buckinghamshire or the Manor of Northstead, now under a lake near Scarborough. These posts carry a nominal salary making them offices of profit under the Crown which bars holders from continuing as MPs. Incumbents then later quit the post, leaving it for future resignations. The last two applicants were UKIP MPs Douglas Carswell (Clacton), who took the Manor of Northstead, and Rochester and Strood’s Mark Reckless, who put in for the Chiltern Hundreds. Both quit to force by-elections after they defected from the Tories last year.

Chris Leslie, the shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, was on the Today programme at 7.10 talking about the Ed Balls’ speech, but John Humphrys insisted on asking him about the possibility of a Labour pact with the SNP.

This line of questioning infuriates Labour because they believe it plays to a Conservative agenda. The Times has splashed on the subject today.

Here’s how the Times story (paywall) starts.

The Conservatives will seek to heighten fears today among English voters over a potential electoral pact between Labour and the Scottish Nationalists.

David Cameron will present the party’s latest campaign poster by M&C Saatchi, depicting Ed Miliband in Alex Salmond’s breast pocket, in an attempt to scare those south of the border into voting Tory.

Lynton Crosby, the Tory election chief, brought forward the campaign to capitalise on growing divisions within Labour over a possible deal with the SNP. The poster will go on display across England today and Scotland later this week.

With the polls suggesting that the Tories and Labour will be almost neck and neck on May 8, Labour’s only hope for entering Downing Street would be to rely on the support of the 40 or more newly elected SNP MPs.

Ed Miliband tried to shut down the issue over the weekend. In an interview with the Daily Record he said that a pact with the SNP was “not on the agenda”.

And here’s the poster.

Updated

We’ve got two big speeches today, and a press launch. But Guardian readers will know that Patrick Wintour got hold of a draft of David Cameron’s speech, and wrote it up on Saturday, so perhaps I’ll be able to take the afternoon off.

Before Cameron stands up, Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor, will give a speech attacking proposed Conservative spending cuts. He will also be releasing a dossier with a fresh analysis of the impact of the Tory plans. Labour released some extracts from the speech overnight, and this is what Balls will say.

The chancellor announced plans in last year’s Budget – re-confirmed in the autumn statement – which go way beyond balancing the books and aim for an overall budget surplus of £23bn by 2019/20.

And to deliver this goal, the chancellor set out tax and spending plans in that autumn statement – the defining fiscal moment of this parliament - which aim to take public spending back to 35 per cent of GDP.

This is a share of national income last seen in the 1930s according to the Office for Budget Responsibility – a time before there was an NHS.

The scale of these cuts is unprecedented. The analysis we are publishing today shows Tory plans mean spending cuts larger in the next four years than in the last five years. We are not even half way through the cuts the Tories are planning.

Spending cuts which are larger than any time in post-war history - a bigger fall in spending as a share of GDP in any four year period since demobilisation at the end of the Second World War.

Spending cuts which are larger than any other advanced economy in the world.

More extreme than in this parliament, the most extreme in post-war history and the most extreme internationally.

Here’s the full agenda for the day.

9.45am: Ed Balls gives a speech on proposed Conservative spending cuts.

11.45am: Nick Clegg and Vince Cable set out Lib Dem plans to promote economic growth.

Afternoon: David Cameron gives a speech on education and family.

3.15pm: HMRC, HSBC and the BBC Trust chair Rona Fairhead, an HSBC director, give evidence to the Commons public accounts committee about HSBC and tax avoidance.

As usual, I will be also covering all the breaking political news from Westminster, as well as bringing you the most interesting political comment and analysis from the web and from Twitter. I will post a summary at lunchtime and another in the afternoon.

If you want to follow me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

 

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