Phillip Inman, economics correspondent 

Greece Q&A: what now for Syriza and EU austerity?

Alexis Tsipras has quickly scaled the first hurdle and formed a coalition but great uncertainty remains with talks on debt levels and repayment terms
  
  

Markets have reacted calmly, so far, to news of anti-austerity Syriza's victory in Greece.
Markets have reacted calmly, so far, to news of anti-austerity Syriza’s victory in Greece. Photograph: Kai Pfaffenbach/Reuters

Was a coalition with the rightwing Independent Greeks party the only option for Syriza and Alexis Tsipras?

No. The centrist Potami party agrees on the need for some debt relief, less austerity and a higher minimum wage. But it is in favour of sticking to Greece’s European commitments and would weaken Tsipras’s negotiating position in Brussels, where he wants to be recognised as leading a tough government prepared to leave the eurozone if debt relief is not on offer.

What does Syriza want?

Tsipras has campaigned consistently for a reduction in the level of debt Greek and not just easier credit terms. In the past four years, Athens’ debts have spiralled to 175% of GDP, partly because GDP has shrunk by 25%, so its ability to pay down debt has diminished. Tsipras says Athens will never escape this debt spiral without some debt relief.

Can Syriza really tear up its debt deal with Brussels?

There are many forces standing in the way. First, Brussels officials are only too well aware that a deal to forgive a proportion of Greek debt will trigger similar claims from Dublin and Lisbon, which were both forced to accept responsibility for all their banking crisis debts and were then shackled to long-term repayment plans. This would effectively treble any bill arising from a Greek debt deal.

Who owns Greek debt?

Private sector lenders, mostly hedge funds, own some Greek debt, but their slice is much diminished after a deal a couple of years ago. Most Greek debt is now owned by various European Union institutions and the International Monetary Fund, which joined the EU bailout of Greece in 2010.

What can Syriza gain in negotiations?

Brussels is ready to extend debt repayments deadlines. An EU source told the AFP news agency: “We will not escape a renegotiation.” There is room for manoeuvre. It may also be possible to drive down the interest rate on debts even more. Interestingly, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi, said last week that should Greece stick with its bailout terms, it will be in a position to buy its debt at knockdown rates to keep the government’s finances rolling – and by implication restore the country’s international reputation.

What about debt owned by the IMF?

The IMF has monitored Greek austerity since 2010. Its officials were back in Athens before Christmas but will be unable to complete a report before the deadline next month to release another tranche of funds. The €7.2bn February payment is needed for Greece to avoid default, though it can be rolled over under certain conditions if talks look fruitful. Ominously, the world’s lender of last resort has warned Greece that failure to repay its debts will carry “consequences”.

Is “Grexit” a possible outcome?

It is possible Tsipras will quickly become frustrated and move to sever links with Brussels, although a first step would be to leave the euro. The problem is that opinion polls say more than three-quarters of Greeks want to remain in the EU. If it came to a referendum, Tsipras could not assure victory.

How would Grexit affect Greece?

Without any debts to repay and an annual budget surplus, a Greek government could regenerate the economy and refashion the political landscape. Should it succeed in its anti-corruption agenda and enact targeted tax reforms, Syriza leaders say the country could be reborn. However, it will want to avoid the fate of Argentina, which defaulted on its debts but failed in the subsequent decade to deal with corruption and remains a pariah among private lenders. Some analysts have said that an influx of tourists would boost the finances of an independent Greece, but it would make up only a fraction of the trade lost from leaving the EU.

How would it affect the EU?

Officials in Brussels and the ECB in Frankfurt have built a financial firewall around Greece. Should Syriza opt to leave and renege on all its debts, the EU has enough money set aside to cover the losses. That’s why the financial markets remained calm on Monday morning.

When will Angela Merkel have her say?

The Greek question could ignite an EU summit scheduled for 12 February, chaired by new EU president Donald Tusk. The former Polish prime minister has already presided over one meeting, which he proudly boasted only lasted a few hours. If speed is his ambition, the next meeting could prove a little frustrating. Merkel will attend with other prime ministers and presidents. In the grand tradition of the EU, expectations of a bunfight based on principled positions are likely to be disappointed. A fudge is always the default option.

Will the IMF have its say?

A report by the IMF on the progress made by Athens towards more stable public finances, due last December, should be ready by the end of the month. It could pave the way for a massive rescheduling of Greek debt if the new government gets a clean bill of health. A more nuanced and critical report is expected.

Debt interest delays can help. If debts that total €240bn are repaid over 50 years instead of 30 years, Greece would save around €3bn a year in interest costs.

What about the next debt repayment date?

Greece is required to pay €22.6bn in principal and interest on loans this year to the troika made up of eurozone countries, the ECB and IMF. This year’s schedule of payments includes €1.6bn due in February, almost twice as much in March, €1.5bn in June, then €8bn covering July and August. With Greece running a €10bn deficit in 2014, mostly the result of debt repayments, paying the monthly bills is going to be impossible without EU/IMF funds.

Greece awoke to a new era of defiant anti-austerity on Monday after voters handed a decisive victory to the radical leftist party Syriza, putting Athens on a collision course with the European commission and international creditors. Under its 40-year-old leader, Alexis Tsipras, Syriza is the first anti-austerity party to take power in Europe and has quickly formed a majority coalition with the Independent Greeks party.

Who is in the new Greek cabinet?

Prime minister in waiting Alexis Tsipras has moved quickly to appoint Giannis Dragasakis as deputy PM. A longstanding MP, he was member of the central committee of the Communist party of Greece until 1991. His experience of government dates back almost 25 years to when he was a member of Xenophon Zolotas’ brief unity government as a deputy economy minister.

Yanis Varoufakis has been given the brief of finance minister. Varoufakis insisted on Monday that Grexit was not “on the cards”. A former student of Essex university, the economist has dual Greek Australian citizenship. He has vowed to end “the humiliation and pain” of the last five years. The rest of the cabinet has yet to be anounced.

 

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