Angela Monaghan 

Oil prices on course for biggest annual drop since 2008

Oil prices on course for biggest annual drop since 2008
  
  

Oil prices have fallen 49% in 2014.
Oil prices have fallen 49% in 2014 Photograph: Hasan Jamali/AP

Closing summary (and Happy New Year)

That’s about it for the 2014 business blog. A big thank you to all our readers. Before signing off for the year, here is a closing summary.

  • The FTSE 100 has closed up 0.29% on the day at 6,566.09, but it is down 2.71% over 2014. The French CAC closed up 0.64% on the day, while the Spanish Ibex was flat.
  • The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose by 17,000 last week, to 298,000. It was a bigger rise than expected, and followed four straight weeks of declines according to the US Labor Department data.

The business blog will be back in 2015, but for now thank you for all your comments and do keep them coming. Happy New Year.

Updated

FTSE closes up on the day, but down in 2014

On the final day of trading in 2014, the FTSE 100 closed up 0.29% at 6,566.09.

Over 2014 as whole however the FTSE was down 2.71%. It was the first annual loss since 2011, dragged lower by a poor start to trading in early December.

Back to UK corporate news, and Asia Resources Minerals - formerly Bumi - has won a tribunal case in Singapore against former director, Rosan Roeslani. Roeslani will have to repay the company $173m (£111m), plus interest and legal costs, driving shares in ARMS sharply higher.

The coal producer launched the arbitration a year ago to enforce a previous settlement with Roeslani, the former head of its Berau subsidiary. Without admitting wrongdoing, Roeslani had agreed to pay the sum after ARMS found $201m of spending at Berau that had “no business purpose”.

An ally of the German chancellor Angela Merkel has claimed the eurozone is no longer obliged to rescue Greece.

Michael Fuchs, a senior member of Merkel’s Christian Democratic party, said Greece was no longer of systemic importance to the single currency bloc, leaving Greek politicians unable to “blackmail” their counterparts in the rest of the eurozone.

In an interview with German newspaper the Rheinische Post, he said:

“If Alexis Tsipras of the Greek left party Syriza thinks he can cut back the reform efforts and austerity measures, then the troika will have to cut back the credits for Greece.

The times where we had to rescue Greece are over. There is no potential for political blackmail anymore. Greece is no longer of systemic importance for the euro.

In a clear warning shot to Greek voters that the eurozone will drop its support for the debt-ridden country if Athens fails to stick to the terms of its bailout after elections in January.

Syriza is leading opinion polls after the Greek parliament’s rejection of the presidential candidate nominated by Prime Minister Antonis Samaras triggered a snap election.

Tsipras, Syriza’s leader, has told voters that “austerity will be history” if the party wins.

Fuchs’ comments were along similar lines to those made earlier by Wolfgang Schaeuble, Germany’s finance minister, who said there was “no alternative” to structural changes in Greece.

Oil is heading for its biggest annual price decline since 2008.

Brent crude oil is down 49% over 2014 on the back of weaker demand and a supply glut. It is currently trading at close to $56 a barrel, after hitting a peak of $115 in the summer.

The annual decline is the biggest since 2008, when the demand plummeted in response to the global financial crisis. Prices at the time were eventually propped up by OPEC’s decision to cut production.

This time around however, OPEC has refused to cut production, opting instead to preserve market share.

The US opens the door to oil exports

President Obama has signalled an end to a 40-year ban on domestic crude oil exports.

Reuters reports:

The Obama administration on Tuesday bowed to months of growing pressure over a 40-year-old ban on exports of most domestic crude, taking two steps expected to unleash a wave of ultra-light shale oil onto global markets.

The Bureau of Industry and Security, or BIS, which regulates export controls, said it had granted permission to “some” companies to sell lightly treated condensate abroad. Condensate is a form of ultra-light crude.

Some two dozen energy companies had asked the agency for clarification on permissible exports earlier this year, but until Tuesday those requests had been put on indefinite hold.

The BIS also released guidance in the form of frequently asked questions, or FAQs, to explain what kind of oil was generally allowed under the ban, the first effort by the administration to clarify an issue that has caused confusion and consternation in energy markets for more than a year.

The two measures are clearest signs yet that the administration is ready to allow more of the booming U.S. shale oil production to be sold overseas, where drillers have said it can fetch a premium of $10 a barrel or more.

They follow a year of murky messages and widespread uncertainty over what is or is not allowed under a trade restriction that critics say is a relic of a bygone age, when oil was seen as scarce after the 1970s Arab oil embargo.

A domestic drilling boom of the past six years has transformed the United States into an energy powerhouse, boosting U.S. production by more than 50 percent and reversing decades of decline.

Output of very light oil has been especially strong, leading to a glut that threatens to overwhelm domestic demand.

Home owners pay off their mortgages in third quarter

The latest data from the Bank of England shows UK home owners took advantage of low interest rates in the third quarter, paying off mortgage debt.

The Bank reported net housing equity injection of £10.9bn between July and September, after slowing to a two-year low of £10.6bn in the second quarter. It was the 26th successive quarter of net housing injection, which peaked at £12.8bn in the first quarter of 2013.

Between the end of 2000 and the second quarter of 2008 - when the UK economy was shrinking - homeowners consistently withdrew equity from their properties. Since then, net injection of equity into houses has totalled £268.1bn.

Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight:

In past years, housing equity withdrawal has been used significantly to support consumer spending. So regardless of the causes of the switch to a net injection of housing equity since early-2008, the fact that housing equity withdrawal is no longer happening has been a limiting factor on consumers’ spending power.

There is certainly a compelling case for many people to be looking to take advantage of very low mortgage interest rates to reduce their outstanding mortgage levels to improve their balance sheets – if they can afford to do so.

However, increased house prices and much improved consumer confidence overall may now be causing a growing number of people to engage in housing equity withdrawal. This would have the impact of reducing net injection of housing equity.

It is worth saying that in the past the Bank has played down the idea that net housing injection is all about home owners choosing to pay off their mortgages, arguing:

The fall in housing equity withdrawal since the financial crisis is likely to reflect a fall in the number of housing transactions, with little sign that households in aggregate are making an active effort to pay down debt more quickly than in the past.



The European Central Bank’s chief economist has warned that measures taken so far might not be enough to stimulate the eurozone’s flagging economy.

Peter Praet has stressed in an interview that the battle against deflation and weak growth in the single currency bloc is still very much on.

The ECB took drastic action to pump some life into the ailing economy this year - including charging banks to park cash with the ECB in a bid to encourage lending. However, it stopped short of embarking on full-blown quantitative easing, leaving it some ammunition for 2015 if conditions do not sufficiently improve.

Here is some of what Praet had to say:

We have always emphasised that there are two contingencies for further action: first, our measures taken so far have not been enough to have the intended effect – that is, are not sufficiently sizeable in terms of expanding our balance sheet to provide the stimulus that is necessary in current conditions; and second, the inflation outlook itself has deteriorated since we decided on the measures we took in the past. Now we have a little bit of both.

There is the risk that we won’t have achieved the degree of monetary accommodation that we had intended. And the Eurosystem staff have also substantially revised downwards their inflation projections. This is why we have to be very vigilant and ask ourselves: have we done enough? The sense of urgency was expressed when we said that we would reassess the situation “early next year”.

There is a risk of a real economic vicious cycle: there is less investment which in turn reduces potential growth, the future becomes even grimmer and consequently investment is reduced even further.

This is why we are underlining that urgent action is necessary. There is a need for a comprehensive response now: all the authorities have to live up to their responsibilities – on the fiscal, structural and monetary policy side.

Updated

The dollar is on course for its strongest year in almost a decade.

The US currency is likely to end 2014 up more than 12% against a basket of major currencies. It would be the biggest gain since 2005, when the dollar rose almost 13%. Most currency experts at major banks expect the greenback to climb further in 2015.

An improving economy in the US and the prospect that interest rates will rise sooner rather than later has supported the dollar, as has general global economic uncertainty.

Kit Juckes, strategist at French bank Societe Generale:

Recent solid data has reinforced the view that the US economy is improving enough for the Federal Reserve to consider raising interest rates in mid-2015.

If the Fed hikes rates (even once), two-year yields will be a lot higher than this in a year’s time and the dollar will be stronger.

Asda sparks new price war with further fuel cuts

Supermarket chain Asda is handing its customers a New Year’s gift by knocking another 2p a litre off its petrol and diesel prices. The cuts take effect from Thursday and mean Asda customers will pay no more than 107.7p a litre for petrol, with diesel at 114.7p a litre.

Prices at Britain’s petrol pumps have been falling amid plunging oil prices. The latest cut in prices from Asda is the supermarket’s 13th since the end of September, taking in total 19p a litre off petrol and 15p a litre off diesel.

Andy Peake, Asda’s petrol trading director, said: “We’re pleased to be giving drivers some early new-year savings.”

Updated

City Link, the collapsed courier firm, is expected to deliver redundancy notices to workers today. More than 3,000 jobs are at risk as administrators - appointed on Christmas Eve - struggle to find a buyer for the business.

Members of the RMT trade union are expected to protest outside the company’s HQ in Baginton, Coventry, as staff await their fate.

Read our full story here.

Goldman pays top London bankers £3m each

US investment bank Goldman Sachs paid its top 121 London bankers about £3m ($4.7m) each in 2013, making it the highest paying of 13 leading banks.

Those staff in senior or risk-taking roles were paid a combined $193.6m in 2013 and handed 2.1m restricted stock units worth $377m based on the bank’s share price at the end of last year.

According to Reuters, data from 13 banks shows British bankers were paid an average of £1.3m each in 2013 - almost 50 times the average annual pay in Britain.

FTSE 100 opens higher

In the final day of trading in 2014, European shares are up slightly. Some of the regions markets are closed today, including Germany’s DAX, while others are open for half a day.

  • FTSE 100: +0.24% at 6562.76
  • France’s CAC 40: +0.35% at 4260.21
  • Spain’s IBEX: +0.18% at 10,297.2

More on the those weak manufacturing figures from China.

Domestic demand led the slowdown, with new orders shrinking for the first time since April. The report prompted speculation that Beijing will further ease monetary policy in 2015.

Hongbin Qu, chief economist for China at HSBC:

Today’s data confirmed the further slowdown in the manufacturing sector towards year end. We believe that weaker economic activity and stronger disinflationary pressures warrant further monetary easing in the coming months.

Employment in the sector fell for a 14th consecutive month, as factories cut jobs in response to weaker demand.

Chinese manufacturing sector shrinks

Good morning, and welcome to our final blog for 2014 on the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and the business world.

China’s manufacturing sector shrank for the first time in seven months in December according to the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI report. In the latest sign of a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy, the headline index fell to 49.6 from 50 in November, where anything below 50 signals contraction.

The news drove Brent crude for February delivery down 79 cents at $57.11, after earlier dropping as low as low as $56.87.

Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets, said: “Clearly, demand concerns are one of the issues for the oil market”.

Updated

 

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