Medium-term borrowing costs for the UK government hit a fresh 19-year high today, as investors continued to offload global bonds amid fears of rising inflation – stoked by the oil price soaring more than 5% at one stage.

Recent dramatic moves in government bond markets have been driven by international factors, but will increase the pressure on John Healey ahead of his first budget as chancellor on 28 October.

The yield, or interest rate, on 10-year UK government bonds jumped as much as 0.07 percentage points (7 basis points) by lunchtime in London, to 5.515%. That was the highest level since July 2007, when the global financial crisis was starting to unfold.

Yields on 20- and 30-year UK government bonds, which are known as gilts, climbed to their highest levels since 1998. Yields go up when bond prices go down. The 20-year gilt yield reached 6% for the first time since March 1998 and the 30-year gilt yield also topped 6%.

The bond selloff has eased somewhat, though, and the 10-year gilt yield is now up 2bps at 5.459%.

Eurozone and US government bond yields also rose sharply earlier today, especially those in France, where the government is under huge pressure to tackle its debt position and pass its 2027 budget.

The French benchmark 10-year bond has dipped slightly to 4.86% while the US 10-year Treasury bond yield is also down a tad, at 5.29%.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, leapt more than $5 to over $105 a barrel, and is now trading 4.4% higher at $104.6 a barrel, up $4.43.

Analysts pointed to growing attacks on tankers around the strait of Hormuz, including an attack on a vessel near Qatar yesterday, coupled with cuts to US oil output as a tropical storm approaches and is expected to turn into a hurricane.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said:

Renewed tensions in the Middle East, with vessel strikes occurring well beyond the strait of Hormuz, have revived concerns about the sustainability of higher transit volumes through the chockepoint.

UK and European natural gas prices also jumped, but the increases later eased.

Thank you for reading. We’ll be back tomorrow. Take care! – JK

Andrew ⁠Bailey, the Bank of England governor, has said governments need to double down on fixing their public finances ⁠as bond markets ⁠around ​the world have come under strain from high debt burdens and rising inflation pressures.

He said in a speech at a ​conference in Istanbul organised by ‌Turkey’s central bank today:

Whatever the stance of ⁠fiscal policy is, it must be credible and directed at stability, and to be seen to ⁠be such by market.

Commitments to rein in debt would help curb demands ‌for higher returns from bond investors when there are negative shocks like the Iran war, he said.

In other words, such commitments are needed more than ever when these negative shocks occur.

He also stressed ‌the importance of central banks’ focus on their main mandate to bring down inflation to the target, of 2% for the Bank of England.

While the recent ​moves in financial markets were “some way from normal“, they were not at the point of showing stress or illiquidity, he said.

British government bond yields hit their highest levels in decades today as ⁠part of a global selloff triggered by a sharp rise ​in oil ​prices.

Bailey ​also expressed concerns that bond markets had become more ​fragile.

Greater absorption ‌has come ​with greater ​fragility. Leveraged positions can be unwound rapidly. Losses can trigger margin calls, model-driven repricing and stop-outs, producing further forced selling that can amplify market moves.

Eurozone finance ministers and the European Central Bank will urge France today to pass its 2027 budget to calm bond ⁠markets, as French borrowing costs ⁠hover at 25-year ​highs, senior euro zone officials told Reuters.

France is at the centre of a bond market storm, fuelled by worries over the country’s large budget deficit and looming presidential election next year.

Its ⁠10-year bond yield has jumped nearly 80 basis points (bps) since the start of September and hit its highest level since July 2002, just short of 5%. That is driving up the government’s borrowing costs ⁠and making things even harder.

Eurozone finance ministers and the ECB meet in Luxembourg this afternoon for monthly ​talks and the surge in French borrowing costs will ‌be discussed.

But asked if the European Commission or ECB would take any action, ‌a senior eurozone official told Reuters:

I think the clear answer is “no“. I would expect the Eurogroup to recognise that France has all the means to respond. The proper response is to agree on a budget. That’s kind of a no-brainer. So I would expect this to be the main message.

The ECB can buy bonds of a eurozone country on the secondary market if their prices move in an unjustified way ‌to protect the proper transmission of monetary policy. But officials said this does not apply to what is currently happening in France. A second senior eurozone official said:

Everybody has their own mandate. The European Central Bank has a mandate to ​maintain price stability, and governments have a mandate to maintain the fiscal stability of their countries. Everybody should do their own job.

France said last month that its budget deficit will exceed the government’s target of 5% of GDP this year. It plans to sell a ​record €340bn of bonds in 2027 to ​fund the government and refinance Covid-era debt.

Eurozone officials said there was concern about ​French borrowing because it created ‌conditions for a broader ​crisis, but added there was no ​sign of contagion yet to other countries in the currency bloc.

Since the creation of the euro in 1999, France – the European Union’s second biggest economy and a key political player – has only had a budget deficit below the EU’s ceiling of 3% six time.

Our retail expert Sarah Butler has also looked at the UK’s big supermarkets.

They may be two of the most recognisable brands in Britain, with a combined 188 years serving shoppers, but industry watchers agree that either Asda or Morrisons – or both – could disappear within a decade.

This week, it emerged that Sainsbury’s and Morrisons – the UK’s second- and sixth-largest supermarket chains – had held merger talks between last November and February, before the larger player decided to walk away.

News of the potential deal has relaunched speculation that the UK grocery market is now ripe for consolidation and revealed that the Sainsbury’s boss, Simon Roberts – who has been in post for six years – is at least willing to consider the possibility of buying one of his troubled rivals.

Sainsbury’s, which has 600 supermarkets and almost 900 convenience stores, has until recently been seen as wary of trying to revive merger talks with its rivals after its bid to buy Asda for £7bn in 2019 was blocked.

However, industry experts say Asda and Morrisons’ owners have held informal talks with each other – and both with Sainsbury’s team – and predict that talks could restart.

“The three of them, one way or another, are talking to each other,” one said. He suggested that a combination of Asda and Morrisons could happen but was likely to be a weaker deal than a Sainsbury’s takeover of either, as both businesses struggle with costs and interest on debt piles.

Meanwhile, the bond sell-off continues, as the Brent crude oil price jumped more than $5, taking it above $105 a barrel and stoking inflation fears.

Brent is now trading at $105.26 a barrel, an increase of 5.15% on the day.

This has pushed bond yields sharply higher, increasing borrowing costs for the UK government. The benchmark 10-year yield has gone above 5.5%, rising 6 basis points to 5.515%, the highest since July 2007

The 20-year gilt yield has reached 6% for the first time since March 1998 and is up 7bps on the day.

The 30-year-gilt yield has also risen to a new peak, up 6bps at 6.047%, the highest since January 1998.

This will only ramp up the pressure on Andy Burnham and John Healey in the run-up to the budget on 28 October, analysts said.

As AJ Bell’s head of financial analysis Danni Hewson points out:

Rising bond yields are bad news for stocks for several reasons. One is they increase the cost of companies’ own borrowing, which eats into their profitability. Another is that when yields on low-risk government bonds are higher, they compare more favourably with the stock market, which is widely perceived as being a higher-risk option. This makes the latter a less attractive place for people to put their cash.

For consumer-facing businesses there is a further challenge. Higher government bond yields feed into increased mortgage and credit costs, putting the squeeze on their customers and affecting their ability to spend.

Hackers gained access to Asos customer names and contact details by impersonating a “trusted contact” to gain access to one of its employee’s accounts, the retailer has said.

Thousands of users of the online fashion seller’s app received a notification on Tuesday titled “Asos hacked” with a link to the Telegram messaging service, sending the company’s shares diving by about 10%.

In a message to customers, the retailer said “sorry for the unauthorised notification” some customers received two days ago. It said its teams, supported by external experts, had undertaken a detailed investigation over the last 48 hours.

The BBC claimed that Asos issued the update after BBC News told the retailer it had been contacted by cyber criminals who said this week’s breach went beyond the “basic contact details” Asos had said might have been accessed.

According to the BBC, this includes searches customers have made on the website, such as “reclaimed vintage”, “glamorous wide fit” and “Asos petite”. With this information, scammers may be able to craft phishing attack emails or phone calls.

Asos insisted that no payment card information or account passwords were accesssed.

Its statement read:

We’re sorry for the unauthorised notification some of you received on 6 October and any uncertainty this caused….

What’s happened

We discovered that an unauthorised party gained access to an ASOS employee account by impersonating a trusted contact to obtain log in credentials. Those credentials were then used to access information on certain third-party platforms used by ASOS. The affected platforms were immediately locked down, ensuring that no further information could be accessed and a full investigation was launched with the support of both internal and external cyber experts.

We are also working with the relevant law enforcement and regulatory authorities.

What this means for you

Our investigation found that the unauthorised party had access to some personal information, including names and contact details, and certain non-personal account related information.

Since we began our internal investigation on 6 October, we have found that:

- No payment card information was accessed

- No account passwords were accessed

- The ASOS website and app were safe to use throughout, and remain safe to use today

There is no action you need to take on your account. However, please remain cautious of unexpected messages or calls claiming to be from ASOS. We will never ask you to share passwords, security codes or payment details through an unsolicited message or call.

Exciting news for UK motorists: drivers will be able to see live petrol prices on Google Maps for the first time from today, in a move that will help motorists shop around for the cheapest fuel.

Millions of motorists will be able to find the cheapest petrol and diesel prices by searching for a local forecourt in the Google app, in what could prove to be “a major development” in making fuel prices more fair, according to campaigners.

The tech company will use data from the government’s Fuel Finder platform, which displays real-time prices at 99% of forecourts, to show Google Map users the cheapest in their local area.

It is expected to make forecourt pricing more transparent and encourage competition between fuel retailers, as millions face record-high road fuel costs due to the global squeeze on supplies prompted by the US-Israel war on Iran. The average price of diesel in the UK recently hit a record £2 a litre, having risen by more than 40% since late February.

Bees, barn owls, puffins and hedgehogs have been picked to feature on the next generation of banknotes, the Bank of England has announced.

The quartet of creatures were selected after a large-scale consultation settled on wild animals as the theme, with members of the public then asked to pick their favourites out of 18 options divided into three categories.

The buff-tailed bumblebee got the most votes in the insects, fish and amphibian group; the barn owl won the bird division; and the European hedgehog was named top mammal. The Atlantic puffin was added to celebrate Britain’s coastline, the Bank said.

It is as yet undecided which species will adorn which banknote. An image of King Charles will continue to be represented on the other side of the £5, £10, £20 and £50 notes, which are expected to take several years to design.

Victoria Cleland, the Bank’s chief cashier, said:

I am delighted that nearly half a million people responded to our wildlife imagery consultation, showing that cash still matters.

She said the public had chosen “four distinct and inspiring animals” that not only showcased the great variety of wildlife in the UK but would “also enhance the security of our banknotes”.

Also from our transport correspondent Gwyn Topham:

Plans to run direct train services to Wrexham and Rochdale from London have been rejected by the rail regulator because of “significant pressure” on the line.

The Office of Rail and Road said that there was insufficient space on the crowded west coast main line to introduce the two new separate train services.

It also vetoed plans for additional London-Blackpool train services wanted by Avanti.

The ORR had last year knocked back plans for a new independent open access service linking Wrexham and the capital put forward by the Wrexham, Shropshire & Midlands Railway Company (WSMR). WSMR had submitted plans for a slightly less frequent service but the ORR said the new routes would still put the reliability of the wider railway at risk.

London’s ⁠High Court today refused ⁠claimants permission ⁠to appeal against its verdict ⁠in the UK dieselgate trial, which broadly found in favour ⁠of some of the ‌world’s biggest ‌carmakers.

Lady Justice Cockerill, who in July ruled against most allegations that certain cars were fitted with illegal “defeat devices” that concealed their true emissions, said that claimants would have to apply directly ‌to the Court of Appeal.

The trial, which began in October 2025, was a group action for 1.6 million drivers against 16 car manufacturers, based on test cases against Mercedes, Ford, Renault, Nissan, and Peugeot/Citroën, and potentially extending to claims against many others.

Lawyers for the claimants argued that the cars systems to cut NOx emissions were being effectively “turned down” on the road.

While the judge dismissed most of their claims, her ruling said that “if an alternative approach to the meaning of ‘defeat device’ were taken a larger number of defeat devices would be established, including devices in each of the lead manufacturers cars”.

Law firm Leigh Day, with Pogust Goodhead the joint lead solicitors in the mass claim, has been approached for comment on their next steps.

Away from the markets, Subway is going into battle with Greggs and McDonald’s on breakfast and dinner in the UK as it equips all its franchise partners with coffee machines and aims to launch hot evening food by the end of the year.

The chain, which has about 2,000 outlets in the UK and is best known for its made-to order baguette-style rolls, is launching bacon sandwiches in a newly developed crunchy roll especially for the UK to be sold alongside its new own-label coffee, pastries such as a cinnamon swirl and a relaxing morning playlist laid down for all franchisees.

Subway, which has about 20,000 stores operated by franchisees in its home market of the US, began testing a new evening menu, including foot-long pizza, loaded fries and baked potato, in the Netherlands and is aiming to bring the concept to the UK before the end of 2026.

The new menu and coffee range – which replaces a hotch potch of different coffee options previously dependent on the franchisee, will go into all UK outlets between now and the end of November.

Tracy Gehlan, the president of Subway’s European business, said the breakfast range was “a first for Subway” globally but locally relevant versions were set to go into other markets. She said the chain was “testing different breakfast offerings across different markets” as “the great British bacon roll doesn’t resonate everywhere.”

Subway had decided to offer its own 100% Arabica bean roast as coffee is “one of the fastest-growing drinks” and an improved breakfast range was “what our customers have been asking for”.

She said breakfast currently made up just 2% of Subway sales and it wanted to get that up to between 8% and 10% while about a fifth of sales were via delivery apps, mostly in the evening, which is lower than some rivals where they contribute up to 40% of sales. She added:

We want to offer our customers the opportunity to come to us in all day parts.

In UK government bond markets, long-dated gilt yields have topped 6% again, increasing pressure on chancellor John Healey before his first budget in about three weeks’ time.

The yield, or interest rate, on the 30-year government bond has risen 3 basis points to 6.0117%, after touching 6.036% on Wednesday, the highest since January 1998.

The 10-year gilt yield meanwhile has risen 5bps to 5.48%, approaching the 5.5% mark, returning to levels not seen since July 2007.

Andrew Wishart, senior UK economist at Berenberg Bank, reckons that gilt yields will drop back next year.

Most of the increase in gilt yields since the pandemic is justified by the return of interest rates to normal levels as policymakers no longer need to set them close to zero to generate sufficient demand. However, the extra increase in yields this year is predicated on four Bank of England interest rate hikes, which we do not think are necessary to prevent another bout of persistent high inflation.

If these lofty expectations are not met, the 10-year gilt yield will probably reverse much of its 2026 surge in 2027. We expect the 10-year yield to drop to 4.7% by end-2027.

The sell-off in bond markets has put the euro under pressure, pushing to close to a 17-month low.

The European single currency dipped slightly to $1.1191 against the dollar.

Gilt yields have also risen. The 30-year yield edged nearly 2bps higher to 5.99% this morning, after jumping 13 basis points on Wednesday ​to peak at 6.036%, their highest level since January 1998.

This adds to pressure on the chancellor, John Healey, who is preparing to present his first budget on 28 October.

The equivalent 10-year US Treasury bond yield rose by a similar amount, to 5.33%.

European gas prices have risen to their highest levels in more than two weeks, as attacks on tankers around the strait of Hormuz crushed hopes of more liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments.

The benchmark Dutch contract rose nearly 3% to €80.39 per megawatt hour, the first time it has been above €80 since 21 September.

The British front-month contract climbed 3.1% to 199.69p per therm, and briefly went above 200p per therm for the first time since 21 September.

Attacks on tankers attempting the passage through the strait hit their highest weekly total last week since the US and Israel started their war on Iran on 28 February. On Wednesday, a tanker was hit multiple times near Qatar, with reports of casualties.

Arne Lohman Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management, told Reuters:

It was the first attack inside the Gulf for some time and marks a new escalation. For the LNG market, the attack’s proximity to Qatar is particularly concerning.

Cooler weather in northern Europe will also lead to more demand for gas.

Brent crude has now topped $104 a barrel, rising $4 on the day, reigniting inflation fears and sending government bond yields higher and stock markets lower.

The Atlantic reported that the White House has asked the Pentagon to draw up options on strikes against Iran before the US midterm elections. A “limited operation” could be followed up by more substantial action after the midterms, according to two unnamed administration officials.

Another wave of strikes against Iran would be a further threat to oil supplies from the Middle East, with the US-Israeli war against Tehran now in its eighth month.

US oil producers have started halting output and evacuating workers in the Gulf of Mexico, as tropical Storm Isaias approached and is expected to strengthen into the first hurricane of the belated Atlantic season. Shell and Chevron both said they were shutting down production.

Maersk, the Danish shipping giant, added to worries as it announced that it is increasing its emergency fuel surcharge on all of its export collections and import deliveries in response to the Middle East war. ​It will raise the surcharge ​to 20% as of ​next Monday, and said it will continue to review the surcharge regularly.

Eurozone bond yields have jumped again as higher oil prices sparked inflation fears.

This increases the cost of borrowing for governments, with France hardest hit in recent days, as it grapples with its budget deficit while the country faces widespread street protests from teachers and students over teacher shortages, big class sizes and mould- and rat-infested school buildings, and wider educational inequalities.

The yield, or interest rate, on France’s benchmark-10-year bond increased 6 basis points to 4.931% this morning, not far from the 24-year high of 4.994% hit last Friday. Yields move in opposite direction to bond prices.

The spread between French and German 10-year yields – which measures the risk premium attached to France – rose 4bps to 142bps, after hitting almost 160bps last week, the highest since 2012.

Germany’s 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for the eurozone, is up 2bps to 3.504%. German bonds are considered safer than other eurozone debt, and yields fell last week when those on French and Italian debt soared.

Yields are heading higher because investors worry about government debt positions, but also because of fears of higher inflation.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond, considered the highest-quality debt globally because it is backed by the US government, is also up again, by 5bps to 5.331%.

The Brent crude oil price, the global benchmark, is close to $104 barrel this morning, up 3.6%, its highest level in a week.

European shares are sliding, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index falling almost 1% to its lowest level in almost four months.

Minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting showed officials were divided over the need for further interest rate hikes. Attention now turns to Europe, where several Bank of England policymakers including governor Andrew Bailey are due to speak, as well as the European Central Bank’s chief economist Philip Lane.

Deloitte has been fined £6.05m in the UK over its audit of the bus and rail operator Go-Ahead Group between 2016 and 2020.

The Financial Reporting Council (FRC), the UK’s accounting watchdog, said it reduced the penalty from £11m because of Deloitte’s “exceptional cooperation” and admissions. Deloitte has also paid the costs of the executive counsel’s investigation.

Go-Ahead runs bus and rail services in the UK and other countries.

The breaches related to three of its subsidiaries which operated passenger rail services: London & South Eastern Railway (LSER), London & Birmingham Railway (LM) and Go-Ahead Bayern in Germany (GABY). (The latter was sold to the Austrian national rail operator ÖBB two years ago.)

The first subsidiary, LSER, had received erroneous over-payments from the Department for Transport (DfT) under a rail franchise agreement before Deloitte became Go-Ahead’s auditor. Although obliged to repay the overpayments to the DfT, LSER retained the money.

The transport department decided not to renew LSER’s franchise when it expired, took action to recover the overpayments and imposed a financial penalty of £23.5m on LSER.

The FRC said:

Deloitte, as auditor, failed to enquire sufficiently into the actions of LSER and LM, failed to apply sufficient professional scepticism, and failed to evaluate the evidence indicating the existence of fraud risk factors. Deloitte failed to appreciate that the company was under a contractual obligation to act in good faith and therefore in relation to LSER to bring the overpayments to the DfT’s attention.

Tesco has raised its annual profit forecast and said consumer confidence has remained relatively resilient this year despite ongoing geopolitical tensions “creating uncertainty”.

The UK’s biggest grocer said sales rose just 2% to £33.8bn in the first six months of its financial year but underlying profit was up 6.5% to £1.8bn.

Ken Murphy, the chief executive of Tesco, said growth had been helped by strong online sales, which were up 8%, and a 9% jump in revenues from its premium own-label Finest range.

The company added:

While consumer confidence has remained relatively resilient in the first half of the year, ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to create uncertainty and we remain focused on helping customers get the best possible value from their weekly shop.

The company said it now expects to make underlying annual profits of between £3.15bn and £3.3bn. That represents an upgrade from its previous expectation of at least £3bn in profits but the bottom end of the range would still mark a fall from a year earlier.

Sales at established UK Tesco stores were up 1.5% as food sales motored, but the group’s Booker wholesale arm continued to have difficulties, with sales falling 2.6%.

The supermarket flagged that it was increasingly using artificial intelligence to help out across the business, including a meal planning assistant which was tested from April with 280,000 staff before being launched for customers in September.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

Oil prices have risen towards $103 a barrel on worries about crude supplies from the Middle East amid growing attacks on shipping in the Gulf and the strait of Hormuz, while the US has reduced its output as a hurricane threatened offshore production.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, advanced $2.62 a barrel to $102.8 a barrel, up 2.6%.

Attacks on tankers sailing through the strait were at a weekly high last week since the US and Israel unleashed the Iran war on 28 February, Reuters reported, citing maritime security sources.

There were at least 12 attacks on oil, liquefied natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas tankers around the strait in the week to 5 October. At the same time, Gulf producers have stepped up oil exports.

Asian shares fell again amid the strain in government bond markets and reports that some big tech companies are seeking to raise billions of dollars in debt.

Japan’s Nikkei lost 1.4% while the South Korean Kospi tumbled 2.6%, even though Samsung Electronics, the world’s ‌largest memory chipmaker, projected ‌a nearly ninefold jump in third-quarter operating profit, to 107.4tn won (£61bn), compared with the same period ‌last year.

The prospect of higher interest rates is weighing on Britain’s housing market, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said ⁠this morning.

Rics said ⁠its house ​price balance fell to -32 last month, from a five-month high of -28 in August, a bigger decline than expected, while the number of new properties coming onto the market rose for the first time since ⁠the middle of last year. The balance deducts those who say prices fell from surveyors and estate agents who reported rising prices.

Rics head ‌of market research Tarrant Parsons said:

A renewed rise in interest rate expectations has ​created a fresh headwind for the ‌housing market, with buyers ‌becoming a little more cautious and sales activity losing some momentum.

Surveyors and estate agents expect property prices to fall further over the next three months but to be stable over the coming year. London had the most negative price balance while Scotland and Northern Ireland reported rising prices.

Financial markets expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates from 3.75% to 4% in November, followed by three more quarter-point rises next year. Unlike the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, the UK’s central bank has kept borrowing costs unchanged so far, despite a pick-up in inflation since the Iran war started.

New buyer enquiries weakened for the first time since March, though the level remains well above the low hit just after the outbreak of the US-Iran war.

The Rics survey also points to rising rents. Growing demand from tenants and fewer ⁠properties from landlords has pushed the net balance for rents above ​its average in the ​first half of the year, ​though it is lower than in August.

The report comes after the mortgage lender Lloyds reported unchanged ‌house prices in September ​while Nationwide ​building society reported a small drop.

Andrew Bailey, the Bank of England governor, chief economist Huw Pill, the deputy governor for monetary policy, Clare Lombardelli, and Megan Greene, who also sits on the rate-setting committee, are giving speeches today.

The Agenda

• 9.30am BST: Bank of England credit conditions survey

• 10.15am BST: Megan Greene speech in Cape Town

• 1.15pm BST: Andrew Bailey speaks at the Istanbul Economic Forum