Finally, here’s our economics editor Larry Elliott on Donald Trump’s renewed fanning of the trade war with China.
Goodnight. GW
London stocks close in the red
Ding ding! The London stock market has closed in the red, after Trump deflated hopes that a trade deal was close.
The FTSE 100 index, which contains the biggest blue-chip companies traded in the City, ended the day 47 points lower at 7369, a drop of 0.6%.
Mining stocks were among the fallers, along with luxury fashion firm Burberry (-3.5%) and packaging giant Smurfit Kappa (-2.7%).
Stocks were already under pressure after Chinese exports fell again last month (see earlier post)
David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets, explains:
Stocks have handed back some of this weeks’ gains after President Trump threw cold water on the hopes that all tariffs would be rolled back should phase one of the trade deal be agreed upon. The US president said he has not agreed to scrapping all the tariffs, and this encouraged some mild selling of stocks.
The door was left open to a partial roll back on tariffs, and that’s why the decline in stocks hasn’t been that bad.
Trump on tariffs: the key quotes
Here’s a transcript of president Trump explaining that he’s not agreed to cut China’s tariffs.
He’s speaking to a gaggle of reporters while the rotors of Marine One whirr in the background
Q: Will a tariff rollback be part of the phase one trade deal with China?
They’d like to have a roll back but I’ve not agreed to anything.
China would like to get somewhat of a roll back, not a complete roll back because they know I won’t do it.
We’ve getting along very well with China. They want to make a deal.... frankly they want to make a deal a lot more than I do.
I’m very happy right now, we’re taking in billions of dollars [reminder, that’s not exactly true]. I’m very happy.
China would like to make a deal much more than I would.
Here’s a video clip:
“I haven’t agreed to anything,” President Trump said earlier about a rollback on China tariffs. “Frankly, they want to make a deal a lot more than I do.” https://t.co/CrkiFVacCz pic.twitter.com/YRwfB6d6kj
— CNBC (@CNBC) November 8, 2019
Updated
Trump’s trade comments have pushed the markets down a little in Europe and in New York.
Britain’s FTSE 100 is down 0.5%, while German’s DAX (packed with exporters who are vulnerable to trade tensions) has lost 0.4%. On Wall Street, the Dow is around 50 points off last night’s closing high.
Connor Campbell of City firm SpreadEx says:
Friday’s mixed trade deal signals continued, unsurprisingly, once Trump got involved.
The President said he has not agreed to roll back tariffs, as China claimed on Thursday, going on to claim that Beijing wants the deal ‘much more’ than he does. He also stated that the agreement would be signed in the USA, a detail that no doubt won’t go down well with Xi Jinping and co.
Though this didn’t spark mass panic, it did ensure that the markets remained in the red as the session went on. At the end of a week that has seen it repeatedly strike fresh all-time highs, the Dow Jones trickled 0.2% lower, returning to 27600 in doing so.
Donald Trump also suggested he and Xi Jinping could sign the Phase One trade deal in a ‘farm county’ such Iowa.
via pool reporters, Trump says China wants a total roll-back of US tariffs, but “I won’t do it.” As for where he and China's Xi might sign a "phase one" trade deal, “it could be Iowa” or other “farm country." (Chile cancelled APEC summit where it would have happened.)
— Olivier Knox (@OKnox) November 8, 2019
That makes some sense - the deal will include China committing to buy more US agricultural products.
But the optics may not appeal to Beijing - it could look like they’ve caved in to the US. The original plan was for a signing ceremony at the APEC summit in Chile, before it was cancelled.
Bloomberg is playing a video clip of president’s Trump’s comments.
He insists that he hasn’t agreed to cut any levies on Chinese imports, but that China “very much” wants the US to roll back tariffs. The two sides are ‘getting on very well’, he says.
Trump also claims that the current tariffs are bringing in billions of dollars from China; in truth, they’re paid by US companies when they import goods, and are then passed onto consumers (or eat into profits).
Trump: "We're taking in billions of dollars from China. I like our situation very much. But China wants a deal much more than I do."
— Harry Horton (@harry_horton) November 8, 2019
Trump repeats his usual false claims about how all that tariff revenue (which is paid by Americans) is coming in from China.
— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) November 8, 2019
Investor and economists across the world are watching Trump’s comments closely - here’s some snap reaction:
Trade Talk Kibuki. And it seems like Peter Navarro’s comments accurately foreshadowed Trumps comment on rollback of US tariffs OT agreed upon. Stocks dump on the current news out of the US on the state of play. Note this is very fluid ! https://t.co/KNsWTDNxYV
— fred walton (@fredwalton216) November 8, 2019
Will change his words if Dow drops 1%. #chinatrade
— Gary Kaltbaum (@GaryKaltbaum) November 8, 2019
"President Trump tells reporters that he is not yet agreed to roll back existing tariffs!"
rump - Trade deal will be signed in the US i dont think Xi is coming to the US to sign it if there are no rollbacks...
— FxMacro (@fxmacro) November 8, 2019
Alexandra von Nahmen of Deutsche Welle has more details of Trump’s comments:
On impeachment, Trump says he’s not concerned about anything. On trade talks with #China: China wants to make a deal “much more than I do.”
— Alexandra von Nahmen (@AlexandravonNah) November 8, 2019
On Ukraine he says again that it was about corruption. “We’re giving them hundreds of millions of dollars.” per WH pool
Well, this is unexpected....
WTAF?
— Neil Wilson (@marketsneil) November 8, 2019
TRUMP SAYS THINKING ABOUT ATTENDING RUSSIA'S MAY DAY PARADE
Trump hasn’t given up on getting a trade deal with China, though. He says the agreement will be signed, in the US.
Trump: No agreement with China on tariffs
Newsflash: US president Donald Trump is dampening hopes of an imminent US-China trade deal.
Speaking to reporters, Trump says he has not reached an agreement with China to roll back tariffs, although Beijing would like him to.
That’s a blow to market optimism, as Beijing officials had claimed yesterday that the two sides had agreed to cancel some tariffs as part of a Phase One deal.
Travel announcement: “I will be going at some point” to India. pic.twitter.com/suArbFJH8J
— HansNichols (@HansNichols) November 8, 2019
This has hit knocked the markets at little -- the Dow Jones industrial average is down 69 points, or 0.25%, at 27,605.
BREAKING: Stocks tumble as President Trump says he has not agreed to roll back tariffs on China, even though China would like him to https://t.co/Wgou7fXvcg pic.twitter.com/L0Iq6yJOiL
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) November 8, 2019
Trump now backtracking (again) - says US- China trade deal *will* be signed in the US.
— IGSquawk (@IGSquawk) November 8, 2019
Futures choppy:#DOW 27616 -0.21%#SPX 3079 -0.20%#NASDAQ 8199 -0.27%#RUSSELL 1590 -0.28%#FANG 2807 -0.03% pic.twitter.com/oPKgER9LHX
US consumer sentiment has risen a little, an encouraging sign.
The University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index has inched up to 95.7 for November, up from 95.5 in October.
The survey found that Americans are more confident about future economic prospects, but also think that their current conditions have deteriorated.
US Univ. Of Michigan Sentiment Nov P: 95.7 (est 95.5; prev 95.5)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 8, 2019
- Conditions Nov P: 110.9 (est 113.5; prev 113.2)
- Expectations Nov P: 85.9 (est 85.0; prev 84.2)
- 1-Year Inflation Nov P: 2.5% (prev 2.5%)
- 5-10 Year Inflation Nov P: 2.4% (prev 2.3%)
Games Workshop shares hit record high as profits keep rising
Making miniature models and tabletop board games continues to be impressively profitable for Games Workshop.
The wargaming company reported that revenue are up again this year, meaning profits should be a third higher than a year ago.
In a brief statement (as short as one of its <checks notes> Ork Gretchin models), it said:
Following on from the Group’s update in September, trading to 3 November 2019 has continued well. Compared to the same period in the prior year, sales and profits are ahead. Royalties receivable are also significantly ahead of the prior year driven by the timing of guarantee income on signing new licences.
Our preliminary estimates of the results for the six months to 1 December 2019 are sales of not less than £140 million and profit before tax of not less than £55 million.
Its shares have spiked by 20% today, hitting £54 for the first time ever. Three years ago they were worth less than £6.
My colleague Alex Hern explained in January how Games Workshop has hooked its fans, who will spend chunky sums of money on metal models and happily devote hours to intricately painting them.
Its shops are also defying the wider slowdown in the retail industry - and apparently more welcoming than in the past.
Ruth Griffin, retail director at legal firm Gowling WLG, says Games Workshop is an interesting example of retail success - a company that has identified its niche market and consistently serviced it.
While for others, diversification and sweeping retail format changes are part of the success story, the opposite applies here.
This means that others should be selective about which lessons to learn…the need to identify and consistently exploit the most successful product lines is an obvious one, but building unique experiences around these seems to be one of the biggest draws for customers.”
Updated
Just in. French energy firm Total has denied that it’s considering a bid for Belgian materials and technology group Umicore, as flagged earlier.
That dashes hopes that the FT’s Markets Live would sign off with another scoop, on its last outing before retirement.
It could be a rather dull day on Wall Street, as traders catch their breath after a series of record highs.
The futures market is predicting that the tech-focused Nasdaq might dip, with the Dow seen unchanged.
US Opening Calls:#DOW 27689 +0.05%#SPX 3082 -0.11%#NASDAQ 8205 -0.19%#RUSSELL 1592 -0.15%#FANG 2811 +0.10%#IGOpeningCall
— IGSquawk (@IGSquawk) November 8, 2019
Another UK retailer has hit tough times.
Huddersfield-based Mamas & Papas,which supplies prams, pushchairs, baby products, furniture and maternity wear, is going into a pre-pack administration.
The move means some stores will close, with around 70 jobs lost and another 500 saved, according to Sky News.
Mamas & Papas gets new parent with ‘pre-pack’ deal https://t.co/fKOzAuToju
— Sky News (@SkyNews) November 8, 2019
Just in: Donald Trump’s economic advisor has said that the White House is prepared to ‘postpone’ tariff hikes on Chinese imports scheduled for next month.
But Peter Navarro also said other tariffs will be saved (ie, maintained), to give leverage in future trade talks.
That could disappoint Beijing, which has been pushing for some existing tariffs to be rolled back as part of the much-discussed Phase One deal.
Edward Lawrence of Fox News has the details:
This morning White House Economic Advisor Peter Navarro says the US is willing to postpone Dec 15th tariffs and that is it for Phase One deal... saving other tariffs to make sure we can negotiate Phase 2 and 3 with China. #China #Trade
— Edward Lawrence (@EdwardLawrence) November 8, 2019
*NAVARRO SAYS U.S. WILLING TO POSTPONE DEC.15 CHINA TARIFFS: FOX
— Sean George (@seanhgeorge) November 8, 2019
Here’s our news story about the latest Crossrail delays, which will put the full cost of the project over £18bn....
Gold hits three-month low
Goldbugs are getting crushed this week, as hopes of a trade deal dent demand for safe haven assets.
Gold has fallen almost 1% today, or $10 per ounce, to $1,458/ounce.
That’s its lowest level since early August, as investors bail out of the precious metal.
Gold on the move to levels haven’t seen since early Aug! #GC_F pic.twitter.com/4A6pKDz0gX
— Stephanie Lewicky (@SLewicky_TDA) November 8, 2019
You might remember the panic earlier this year when the US government yield curve inverted.
If not, this was the moment when investors accepted a lower interest rate for making long-term loans to the US, rather than short-term ones.
That has typically been a recession indicator, as it implied investors were gloomier about long-term prospects.
But you may fret no more! Yields (interest rates) have returned to normality, suggesting recession fears are abating.
Treasury curve now positively sloped across all maturities (kink is gone) @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/nVgE3C5JGs
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) November 8, 2019
Over in Brussels, shares in Belgian multinational materials technology company Umicore have spiked 7% to a six-month high -- thanks to a takeover rumour.
The FT’s soon-to-be-sorely missed Markets Live has reported that Total are pondering a move on Umicore.
Umicore develops clean technologies such as automotive catalysts, and is Europe’s largest producer of battery materials for the electric car industry.
Nothing official yet, but it could be a decent final hit for ML, which is being pensioned off after more than a decade of market-moving scoops and top banter.
The last Markets Live is in session, and while the rabble are busy reminiscing, Murphy and Hume have turned up with some RAW bid info, of course https://t.co/WfxjHEk3LJ
— Dan McCrum (@FD) November 8, 2019
Come along today at 11am to the last ever Markets Live session on @FTalpha to give it a good send off/viking funeral. ML really was a breakthrough in digital journalism for mainstream media when in lauched in 2006. 1/6
— Tony Tassell (@TonyTassell) November 8, 2019
Back in China, car sales have slumped again as consumers rein in spending.
The China Passenger Car Association has reported that vehicle sales fell 6% year-on-year in October. This is the 16th monthly fall in the last 17 months -- June bucked the trend, as desperate car dealers slashed prices to shift stock.
China car sales keep plunging as peak season fails to deliver https://t.co/iU6eW6vrWq
— Bloomberg Next China (@next_china) November 8, 2019
Shareholders 1: Bankers 0....
Economists predict that Japan’s economy has slowed in the last quarter, further justifying another stimulus push.
GDP is estimated to have risen by just 0.2% in July-September (the official data are released next week), down from over 0.3% in April-June.
There are also fears that a hike in Japan’s sales tax last month will hurt consumer spending in the current quarter.
#Japan consumer #spending rose by a whopping 9.5% YoY in September, the most on record, as the October sales #tax drove last-minute buying. pic.twitter.com/jZ22aUaDYQ
— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) November 8, 2019
Japan is also concerned that growth could shrivel once the 2020 Tokyo Olympics are complete.
This is another reason to launch a new stimulus package now, reports Robin Harding of the Financial Times:
Mr Suga [cabinet secretary] said there would also be spending to raise productivity in small businesses, agriculture and regional Japan, as well as investment to improve economic competitiveness beyond the Olympics.
There are widespread fears of a slump late next year, once real estate investment timed for the games is complete.
“Putting the current low interest rates to good use, we want to deploy fiscal borrowing and investment proactively to invigorate investment for future growth,” Mr Suga said.
Japan to launch new stimulus programme
Japan is drawing up a new stimulus programme to boost the economy, and protect the country from natural disasters.
Shinzo Abe instructed his ministers to come up with investment plans to support growth, in the face of a slowing economy and trade tensions.
Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura told a news conference after a regular cabinet meeting that:
“I’ve received an instruction from the prime minister to compile a new economic package to guard against the chance overseas risks may hurt Japan’s economy.
The plan could take advantage of current ultra-low interest rates (Japan can borrow at below 0% for ten years, despite its huge national debt).
Japan is also looking to recover from recent national disasters such as typhoon Hagibis - one of the most devastating storms to hit the country in decades.
Yoshihide Suga, Japan’s chief cabinet secretary, explained:
To speed up our recovery [from natural disasters], deal with risks from abroad and accelerate productivity growth, we are formulating an economic plan along the lines of a 15-month budget.”
Japan latest country to enact or plan stimulus to try to boost struggling #economy - in its case #fiscal rather than #monetary & focused on boosting public investment & taking advantage of negative or very low interest rates https://t.co/el0bZwAuRy via @financialtimes
— Howard Archer (@HowardArcherUK) November 8, 2019
Updated
Crossrail delayed /again/
Just in: London’s Crossrail has been delayed yet again, and is going to cost even more money.
Transport for London has warned that the project, to build a new line between Heathrow Airport and Canary Wharf, has hit more problems.
The central stage of the line, under the capital, will now not open in 2020 as planned.
This means the full Elizabeth line (more than 70 miles from Reading in Berkshire to Shenfield in Essex) will now only open “as soon as practically possible in 2021”.
This means the cost of completing Europe’s biggest railway infrastructure project has gone up again, by possible £650m.
TFL says:
The latest projections now show a central cost forecast (including risk contingency) of approximately £15,363m, which is £400m more than the funding committed under the Financing Package.
Further modelling scenarios consider even higher levels of risk of £650m more than the funding committed under the Financing Package.
Crossrail has already been delayed from December 2018 into 2019, due to problems installing signalling and testing the service - which uses an automatic train control system.
All of the permanent track has been installed, following around a decade’s work in the capital. Some 26 miles of new tunnels have been dug, and the trains have been bought.
But the 10 new stations built for the service are still being fitted out with power, ventilation and communication systems.
More delays and more money need for London's long-awaited @Crossrail project. TFL says it won't open in 2020 as hoped. Was meant to open last year.
— Jonathan Savage (@JSavageTweets) November 8, 2019
Breaking: @TfL statement to @LSEplc rules out Crossrail opening next year and says costs will increase by a further £400m-£650m. Central section will now open "as soon as practically possible in 2021".
— Ross Lydall (@RossLydall) November 8, 2019
Crossrail will officially be at leas two years late https://t.co/jypoyltI4m
— hern (@alexhern) November 8, 2019
In the UK, Royal Mail is heading to the High Court in an attempt to block a pre-Christmas strike.
The postal operator claims there were irregularities when staff were balloted on industrial action -- including staff opening the ballot papers at work and being encouraged to vote to strike.
The CWU union will fight the move, calling it a “desperate and sinister move”.
More here:
European stock markets have also opened in the red, handing back some of their recent gains.
In London, the FTSE 100 has dipped by 0.2% or 15 points. Mining companies are among the fallers, following the drop in Chinese iron ore imports last month.
Investors may be a little flummoxed about the trade war situation -- are China and the US really poised to cut tariffs, or is disappointment around the corner?
As Neil Wilson of Markets puts it:
Yesterday, US equities pushed the record highs again and bonds tumbled, while European stocks firmed around 4-year peaks on hopes and perhaps signs of real progress on trade following remarks, just before the London open, that the US and China were in agreement on rolling back tariffs as part of a managed ceasefire.
There was confusion over exactly what the Chinese official said, but seemed to be clarified by the US saying the phase one deal would include tariff rollback. White House ‘sources’ reports later talked of ‘fierce internal opposition’ with no final decision made.
There a strong sense of the ‘if’ about this. If a first phase trade deal is done, there is agreement to roll back some existing tariffs, but only if the deal is agreed.
Shipments of iron ore into China have fallen, in another sign that its economy is weakening.
Iron ore imports fell by 7.5% in October, customs data shows, to 92.86m tonnes from 99.36m tonnes in September.
That implies that production of steel, a barometer of growth and investment, slowed last month.
Trade war jitters pushed markets lower across Asia today.
China’s CSI 300 ended the day down 0.5% at its lowest closing level in a week. South Korea’s KOSPI index, which is also vulnerable to trade tensions, lost 0.4%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was the worst performer, shedding 0.8%. The death of student Chow Tsz-lok today, following a fall during anti-government demonstrations last week, could escalate the protests that have gripped the city for months and pushed it into recession.
White House: Very, very optimistic of a deal
White House spokeswoman Stephanie Grisham has bolstered hopes of a trade deal soon.
She told Fox News last night that the US was “very, very optimistic” of success:
“I cannot get ahead of the talks with China, but we are very, very optimistic that we will reach a deal soon.”
Updated
Although poor, today’s trade data from China is better than hoped.
Economist Shane Oliver of AMP Capital says investors had expected a sharper fall in both imports and exports.
#China Sept trade data better than exp.
— Shane Oliver (@ShaneOliverAMP) November 8, 2019
Exports -0.9%yoy, up from -3.2%yoy (mkt exp was -3.9%)
Imports -6.4%yoy, up from -8.3%yoy (mkt exp was -7.8%)
Exports to US -16%yoy on trade war impact
Better momentum..but just bouncing in same range for last six months or so pic.twitter.com/uHktrNL1Zq
CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche suggest recent ‘exemptions’ on tariffs between the US and China may have helped:
#China trade data improving: Exports "only" -0.9% yoy from -3.2% in Sep , imports -6.4% from -8.5% yoy
— Joumanna Bercetche (@CNBCJou) November 8, 2019
Here's the kicker: Exports to the US +4.6% Month On Month in Oct (still neg yoy);"exemptions of some China exports to the US from tariffs in late Sep could be a factor" (GS)
Here’s economist Trinh Nguyen:
China exports fell -0.9%YoY v expectations of -3.9% and imports fell -6.4% vs expectations of 7.8% so both better than expected but still in CONTRACTION. Trade balance is even higher at 42.8bn due to the declining imports so sheltering the domestic economy via the current account
— Trinh Nguyen (@Trinhnomics) November 8, 2019
Introduction: Trade deal hopes at risk?
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Are the US and China closing in on a trade deal? Hopes are building that the two sides will shake on an agreement that would prevent further tariffs being imposed, and boost global growth.
But there’s a snag. Beijing wants the US to lower some of the tariffs imposed in the last 18 months -- and some in the White House aren’t convinced.
It emerged overnight that a row is brewing in Washington between those keen to cut a Phase One deal, and those unwilling to remove tariffs until China has given ground on key issues.
As Reuters reported:
The Chinese Communist Party is trying to “re-trade” the agreement, said Stephen Bannon, former White House adviser. He added that rolling back earlier tariffs “goes against the grain” of the original October agreement.
“There’s nothing that Trump hates more” than someone backtracking on a deal, he said.
Wall Street hit another record high last night, but the markets could be more muted today while investors digest the situation.
But every day without a trade deal means more grit in the wheels of the world economy.... and new economic data from China today shows that the trade war is hurting.
Chinese exports shrank by 0.9% year-on-year in October, the third monthly decline in a row. That’s actually better than feared, but still indicates that manufacturers are struggling.
Imports also took another hit, sliding by 6.4% compared to October 2018. That also implies weakening growth.
China's exports declined by 0.9 per cent in October, while imports continued their historically bad slump with a 6.4 per cent decline, reports @fbermingham #China #china #Trade #TradeDeal #TradeWars #tradewar #exports #imports https://t.co/5z59grlmQ9 pic.twitter.com/ilbSSXYTQp
— SCMP Economy (@scmpeconomy) November 8, 2019
That left China with a trade surplus of $42.81 billion in October, up from September’s $39.65 billion surplus.
Reaction to follow....
The agenda
- 3pm GMT: University of Michigan survey of US consumer confidence
Updated