Oil pries are rising again this morning – Brent crude, the international benchmark, is up by about 2% to $98.8 a barrel after further clashes between the US and Iran last night.

Kathleen Brooks, of the broker XTB, says:

It is unclear if talks to end the war and reopen the strait [of Hormuz] are ongoing, but the latest developments suggest that investors may have been too quick to price in the impact from last week’s promised memorandum of understanding between Iran and the US.

As we enter the start of the fourth month of the conflict, there are clear signs that the energy price spike is becoming embedded in the global economy.

Jim Reid, of Deutsche Bank, notes that there is “increasing pessimism that a US-Iran deal to reopen the strait of Hormuz is imminent”.

New clashes took place overnight as US forces conducted strikes against Qeshm Island while Iran fired missiles and drones towards Kuwait and Bahrain, with the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] saying it targeted the US 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. Meanwhile, further Israel-Lebanon talks are expected today, according to the US.

Prior to that, we saw little sign yesterday of concrete steps towards an imminent deal. For instance, Iran’s Mehr reported that ‘The final text from Iran is still under discussion in Tehran and no response has been sent yet’. Then later on, US secretary of state Marco Rubio said that when it comes to a deal ‘it could happen today, it could happen tomorrow, it could happen next week’.

Elsewhere this morning, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has warned that if the Middle East conflict drags on into next year it will hit global growth hard, driving some economies into recession and causing energy shortages.

In its latest Economic Outlook, the Paris-based club of industrialised countries lays out a “prolonged disruption” scenario, in which there is no agreement between the US and Iran until 2027.

It forecasts such a scenario would reduce global GDP growth to 2.1% this year, from 3.4% in 2025, “pushing some economies into or close to recession” – with emerging economies hit hardest.

Read the full story here by Heather Stewart:

European stock markets have opened mostly in the red this morning – the UK’s blue chip FTSE 100 index is down 0.5%. The German Dax is down 0.8% and the French Cac 40 is down 0.43%.

The Stoxx Europe 600, which tracks the biggest listed companies on the continent, is down 0.4%.

Ovo Energy has agreed to pay mre than £10m after the energy reulator found that vulnerable customers were left at a “risk of harm” due to the supplier’s inadequate monitoring of households on prepayment meters.

Ovo has agreed to a settlement including a £7m payment to Ofgem’s voluntary redress fund and a £3.4m package of credit and debt relief for some of its most vulnerable customers, which the regulator said was in lieu of compensation.

Cathryn Scott, director of market oversight and enforcement for Ofgem, said:

It is clear that OVO fell short in its support of vulnerable PPM customers, and it’s right that they’ve taken action to improve their processes. As a result of our investigation, vulnerable customers will receive debt write-off or credit payments alongside a payment into our voluntary redress fund.

Prepayment meters are a positive choice for many customers, helping them stay in control of their energy use and reporting high levels of satisfaction – but it’s not suitable for everyone and strong monitoring must be in place to protect vulnerable consumers.

This investigation forms part of Ofgem’s wider work to raise standards across the energy market and strengthen consumer protections, challenging suppliers to do more to identify and support customers in difficulty.

Anyone worried about paying their bill should contact their supplier as early as possible to access the support available and discuss the options that suit their circumstances.”

In January, the regulator also ordered Ovo to pay a £2.7m penalty after it found it had failed to pass on government support payments for winter energy bills to thousands of vulnerable customers during the energy cost crisis.

Elsewhere this morning, the pensions industry has warned that about 75% of workers are not saving enough for a “moderate” income in retirement, with many people facing a “cliff edge drop” when they stop work.

Industry body Pensions UK has said only 23% of the working population are on tack for a moderate lifestyle, which would require an income of £32,700 for a one-person household and £45,500 for two people.

A “minimum” retirement lifestyle costs £13,900 a year for a one-person household and £22,500 for two people, while a “comfortable” lifestyle costs £45,400 and £62,700 respectively.

The figures reflect everyday costs such as food, essential household bills and transport, as well as social activities and hobbies. 82% of people are expected to meet the minimum level.

However, all three levels assume receipt of the full state pension and no rent or mortgage costs.

Zoe Alexander, executive director of policy and advocacy at Pensions UK, said:

The latest update to the retirement living standards underlines a clear reality for many people – today’s saving levels will not be enough for the retirement they expect.

Without action, too many risk facing a cliff edge drop in income when they stop work.”

Ms Alexander added: “We also encourage people to speak to their employer and see whether the organisation is prepared to support them to save above the minimum, such as higher rates of matching pension contributions.”

Google has said it will immediately start testing new changes that will allow a “subset of website owners” in the UK to manage how their links and content appear in generative AI search features.

Mrinalini Loew, general manager at Google Search Ecosystem, wrote in a blog post today:

We’re also actively listening to feedback from publishers and creators, and engaging with regulators like the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority to ensure website owners have the right tools as user preferences evolve. Today, we’re beginning to test a new control that lets website owners manage how their links and content appear in generative AI Search features.

A new tool will allow website owners to decide if they want their site to appear in and help “ground responses” in Google’s AI search features such as AI overviews and AI mode.

The control will not be used as a ranking signal for search results outside the generative AI Search features, Loew said.

We’re also starting to roll out new insights for website owners in Search Console about the appearance of their pages in generative AI Search features. These insights include impressions metrics and information about which pages appear in AI responses and in what countries. We’re continuing to work with website owners to understand what insights will be most helpful to inform their strategies, and we’ll introduce additional metrics over time.

We are beginning to roll these features out to a subset of website owners in the UK, allowing for thorough testing before rolling them out to website owners globally. As AI opens up new opportunities for discovery, we’ll keep improving our experiences to help people explore the web, and keep building tools for websites to better engage their audiences

Google has nine months to implement all the required changes to its search services, the competition regulator has said.

However, the CMA has said it expects “important parts of the controls to become available to publishers well before that deadline”.

The regulator has also asked Google to submit and publish compliance reports, explaining changes it has made and how it has complied. These are due every six months for the first year, after which the CMA will then review the frequency of reporting.

Google is not the only big tech company under the CMA’s sights – the regulator has launched strategic market status investigations into Apple and Microsoft, too.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

The UK’s competition watchdog has announced that web publishers and news organisations will now be able to opt out of AI overviews of Google search results.

The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has said its new rules will put “publishers, like news organisations, in a stronger position to negotiate content deals with Google”.

The intervention comes after complaints by media organisations that they have experienced a drop in click-through traffic to their websites – and therefore their revenue – since Google started posting AI summaries at the top of search results.

CMA chief executive Sarah Cardell said in a statement:

With features like AI Overviews rapidly reshaping online search, it is crucial that content publishers, including news organisations, have appropriate bargaining power over how their content is used. At the same time, these measures will help tens of millions of UK search users better understand and trust the information presented to them.

It’s also important that any action we take in this space can move with the times. Google has recently announced changes to its search business and the requirements we’ve introduced today are designed to respond to what Google is doing now and in the future. We’ll also continue to use the unique flexibility of the UK regime to monitor and address future concerns as they arise and we will be announcing further action in relation to Google’s search business in the coming weeks.

Under the new rules, Google will also now have to make sure that publisher content is “properly attributed”, using clear links in AI search results.

It will also have to allow publishers to opt out of allowing their content to be used for the “fine-tuning of AI models” which will provide “publishers with confidence that they will have control over the full range of AI use-cases of their content”, the CMA said.

The agenda

• 9am BST: Eurozone services PMI

• 9.30am BST: UK services PMI

• 3pm BST: US services PMI

• Today: St Petersburg International Economic Forum

• Today: FTSE reshuffle to be announced after market close