The coming byelection in Makerfield, from where Andy Burnham aspires to make rapid progress towards Downing Street, is perhaps the most consequential in British political history. But the decision by the Scottish National party’s former Westminster leader, Stephen Flynn, to relocate to Holyrood means that another pivotal contest is taking place more than 350 miles to the north. If Makerfield is a test case for Mr Burnham and Labour’s ability to see off Reform UK, Mr Flynn’s old constituency of Aberdeen South is on the frontline of the increasingly fraught politics of North Sea oil.
Labour, despite finishing second in the 2024 general election thanks largely to anti-Tory tactical voting, will not be expecting much this time round. The ramifications of Donald Trump’s reckless war in Iran have exposed Britain’s ongoing vulnerability to fossil-fuel-related energy shocks, highlighting the practical benefits of moving to a green economy. But the knock-on effects of the closure of the strait of Hormuz have also been a gift for the Scottish Conservatives and Reform, who are framing the byelection as a local referendum on reviving oil and gas production beyond Westminster-imposed limits.
In a city that used to pride itself on being the oil capital of Europe, that message will find a ready audience. The SNP, like Labour, remains committed to net zero targets, but has equivocated on calls for more drilling in response to the Middle East crisis. Seeking to steer the debate on to nationalist terrain, the first minister, John Swinney, has called for greater Holyrood control over energy policy, updating 1970s slogans about “Scotland’s oil” for the age of renewables.
The changing mood music is disquieting, given the economic and environmental stakes. Reform UK’s “drill, baby, drill” hostility to climate action may be too extreme for Aberdeen voters aware that future prosperity rests on becoming a clean-energy hub. But soaring energy prices and job losses in the oil and gas industry have delivered the Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, the chance of a morale-boosting victory on SNP turf. The extraordinary spectacle of Nicola Sturgeon’s ex-husband Peter Murrell behind bars, after admitting to stealing SNP funds, may make an upset more likely.
Ahead of a UK general election where the right will seek to portray net zero as an unsustainable economic burden, that would be an ominous outcome. Whatever the result in Aberdeen on 18 June, the government should treat the revived debate about North Sea oil and gas as a warning. Greater resources need to be dedicated to ensuring a faster, more equitable transition. According to figures from the Energy Transition Institute at Aberdeen’s Robert Gordon University, UK employment in the oil and gas industry has fallen by 70,000 to 115,000 over the past decade. During the same period, 39,000 clean-energy jobs have been created.
Announcing two years ago that the government’s new state-owned company, GB Energy, would be located in Aberdeen, Sir Keir Starmer pledged that it would help “kickstart a UK-wide clean-energy revolution”. There is popular support and enthusiasm in Scotland for that, but also anxiety that communities will not be adequately protected from the kind of painful decline associated with deindustrialisation in the 1980s. Makerfield will grab most of the media’s attention next month. But Aberdeen South’s byelection may also be a wake-up call for Westminster.
