While the world watched the pomp of Donald Trump’s trip to Beijing, the US was turning up the pressure thousands of miles away. Its oil blockade has plunged Cuba into a humanitarian crisis, sparking nationwide blackouts that have prompted rare protests, closing schools and universities and leaving hospitals battling to treat patients. Surveillance flights are circling. US media reported this weekend that federal prosecutors are preparing an indictment for Raúl Castro, the 94-year-old former president and brother of Fidel. Mr Trump has casually observed, while bragging about the kidnapping of Venezuela’s then leader Nicolás Maduro in January, that “Cuba is next”.
A military assault on Havana would be vastly more fraught for the US – even without the war on Iran – and disastrous for Cubans. Washington hopes that threats and privation will be sufficient. UN experts warn that the blockade is unlawful, puts human rights at risk and may amount to collective punishment. The government admitted on Wednesday that fuel oil had run out. Tourism has collapsed. The Canadian mining company Sherritt pulled out of a joint venture and countries have axed their contracts for Cuban doctors – a vital source of income for the island, and trained medical staff for others. Havana may hope that it can stagger on. But Mr Trump is not patient.
On Thursday, the CIA director, John Ratcliffe, travelled to Cuba to demand “fundamental changes”. The US wants economic reform, the closure of Chinese and Russian intelligence posts, and reportedly the removal of President Miguel Díaz‑Canel. That would reinforce the administration’s message that it controls the Americas. Marco Rubio, secretary of state and the child of Cuban migrants, has long taken a harsh line towards Havana, and Cuban‑Americans are an important part of Mr Trump’s base. A cut in migration – Cuban rates have rocketed in recent years – would please supporters.
The decades-long US embargo has been punitive. But Cubans’ hostility to the US does not preclude anger at their own leaders, who failed to push through promised economic reforms during Barack Obama’s thaw, and launched a 2021 currency restructuring that proved disastrous amid deep domestic weaknesses and intensified US sanctions. That – and the violent crackdown on resulting protests – destroyed the faith of many who believed in the promises and achievements of the revolution.
Cuba’s deputy prime minister, Óscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, has said it is open to relationships with US companies in “key sectors”. The US has said that’s not enough. Alongside ideological diehards at the top are those with vested interests in the status quo, especially via Gaesa, the military-run conglomerate controlling a huge swathe of the economy. Yet some judge that they would do better from a deal with the US.
Many years ago, Trump organisation officials explored future options for golf and hotels in Cuba. Massive expansion of the private sector, ore extraction and foreign investment on Washington’s terms would benefit US businesses and a few well‑connected figures in Havana, rather than Cubans as a whole. A highly educated population is ripe for change that would allow older generations dignity, and give younger ones opportunity. Instead they appear to face ongoing collapse, a sordid deal or – worst of all – a military attack. Mr Trump talks of “taking” Cuba. But it belongs to the Cuban people.
