Motorists stocking up on fuel helped push up retail sales in Great Britain last month as the Iran war prompted “panic at the pumps” amid rapid rises in petrol and diesel prices.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that the volume of retail sales rose by 0.7% last month, well above analysts’ forecasts of just 0.1%, as the quantity of fuel bought hit the highest level since 2021.
Fuel sales volumes surged by 6.1% last month as motorists filled up their tanks while the conflict in the Middle East triggered the biggest jump in fuel prices for more than three years.
The value of sales for fuel, the amount of money spent, was up by 11.6% amid the jump in petrol and diesel prices.
“There was panic at the pumps in March, as escalating prices saw motorists race to fill up their tanks to try to save cash and build reserves in case of shortages,” said Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club. “A surge in purchases on forecourts was the biggest driver behind the uplift in monthly retail sales.”
Excluding the impact of fuel buying, total retail sales rose at 0.2% month-on-month, bouncing back from a 0.6% fall in February. On Friday, the ONS revised down February sales from the 0.4% decline it estimated last month.
The ONS said that sunnier weather in March helped retailers, in particular clothing stores.
Textile, clothing and footwear stores reported a 1.2% month-on-month sales increase, while department stores recorded a 1.1% sales rise.
The only retail sector to record a month-on-month decline in sales was supermarkets and food stores, which reported a 0.8% fall in the volume of sales.
“This rebound suggests that while consumer confidence remains under scrutiny, spending has not stalled in tandem, and shoppers remain willing to engage where purchases feel timely and relevant,” said Deann Evans, managing director for Europe at Shopify.”
Investec economist Ellie Henderson said that the increase in volumes excluding fuel suggested that “consumers opted to scale back saving to fund the extra spending on fuel rather than scale back other purchases”.
Despite the sales boost in March the ongoing impact of the war on the economy is taking its toll on consumer confidence.
On Thursday, data provider GfK’s consumer confidence barometer fell by four points to -25 in April, the biggest drop in a year.
That is the lowest level since 2023, indicating that the disruption and high energy prices caused by the Iran war is alarming consumers.
The closely watched S&P Global purchasing managers’ index showed UK service sector firms hit with the biggest jump in costs since 1996 between March and April.
Separately, earlier this week the ONS said that more than a quarter of firms in its weekly survey of business conditions expected the price of goods or services they sell to increase next month, the highest since January 2023.
“Looking ahead to the rest of 2026, there are already signs that consumer confidence is taking a hit,” said Jacqueline Windsor, head of retail at PwC UK. “If consumers are forced to spend more on grocery, petrol and utility bills, they will inevitably be forced to rein back their discretionary spending.
“So, for most retailers, the first few months of this year are likely to be remembered as the calm before the storm.”
