It’s been a bewildering few weeks since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran triggered a global energy shock that shows little sign of ending.
Here are seven charts that tell the story so far.
How did we get here?
At the turn of this century, Australia produced 563,000 barrels of oil a day, with eight refineries supplying 98% of our total petroleum product needs.
From that high point, oil and petroleum production has slumped to the point where the country relies on imports for 90% of its liquid fuel needs and oil production is at its lowest since the late 1960s.
Over the past 25 years, the number of local refineries has also dropped:
Mobil’s Port Stanvac refinery in South Australia was mothballed in 2003 (and permanently closed in 2009)
Shell’s Clyde refinery was closed in November 2013
Caltex closed its Kurnell refinery in Sydney in October 2014
BP did the same with its Brisbane plant in mid-2015
BP then closed its Kwinana refinery south of Fremantle in March 2021
ExxonMobil’s Altona refinery in Melbourne was shuttered in August of the same year.
That has left just Ampol’s Lytton refinery in Brisbane and Viva Energy’s facility in Geelong – both of which depend on government support to stay open.
So where does Australia buy our fuel from now?
Singapore and South Korea supplied about half the country’s total refined petroleum products in 2025, with Malaysia our next most important supplier at 13%.
India and Taiwan round out our top five suppliers with each providing 8% of our refined fuel imports.
Digging a little deeper, last year we sourced 55% of our petrol imports from Singapore, and nearly 30% of our diesel from South Korea.
And while China supplies only 7% of our refined petroleum product imports, it is a hugely important supplier of jet fuel, accounting for a third of our international purchases last year.
When it comes to crude oil to feed our refineries, we are heavily dependent on Malaysia (approaching 40% of total crude imports) and the United States (21%).
There are reports that ExxonMobil, BP and Vitol are shipping a record volume of oil products to Australia from the United States to plug the gap left by disrupted supplies from our region.
But friendship has its limits, and some of our most important suppliers have made it clear that they will look after their own interests first.
Malaysia’s government last week said they would “prioritise our own needs”, while China - a key supplier of jet fuel - banned fuel exports until at least the end of March.
Australia and Singapore issued a statement pledging to “support the flow of essential goods including petroleum oils … and consult each other on any disruptions with ramifications on the trade of energy”.
But the conflict is in the Middle East …
Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, warned at the National Press Club this week that “Asia is at the forefront” of what he described as an energy crisis of historic proportions.
Why? Because Asia is a net importer of oil and fuel, and heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil.
As we are heavily dependent on Singapore for fuel imports, so the city-state sources two-thirds of its crude from the Middle East – all of which passes through the strait of Hormuz.
(Singapore also imports 40% of its LNG from Qatar.)
This is how disruption to Middle Eastern oil supplies ripples along the world’s longest supply chain, through Asia, and finally to Australia.
So is this why petrol costs so much?
Yes – though the retailers were suspiciously quick to hike prices, given it takes 1-2 weeks for higher global oil prices to feed through to costs at the bowser.
In any case, a litre of diesel has jumped from about A$1.80 at the start of the US-Israel war on Iran, to just shy of $3 at the time of writing, according to Motormouth – an increase of 67% since the end of February.
A litre of regular unleaded has also jumped: from $1.80-$2 in the east coast capitals at the end of last month, and from a little over $1.60 in Perth, to closer to $2.50 – an increase of nearly 40%.
That’s if you can get fuel.
For example, the energy minister, Chris Bowen, said on Tuesday that there were were 289 stations in NSW without at least one type of fuel, and 164 without diesel. That’s out of more than 2,400 petrol stations in the state, but that’s not very comforting if you live in a one-station town that has run dry.
Ouch – this is the last thing I need
Aussie households were already pretty gloomy about how much everything costs.
The latest energy shock has sent consumer confidence to its lowest on record, according to ANZ-Roy Morgan’s sentiment survey, which stretches all the way back to 1973.
The Reserve Bank’s interest rate hike earlier this month has further soured the mood among mortgage holders. Financial markets are pricing in another three rate hikes by the end of this year, and Treasury officials have suggested inflation could climb to near 5% by the middle of this year.
Back to fuel, and a typical family using 35 litres of petrol a week have seen their weekly fuel bills jump to nearly $86 - up $27 on last month and marking another unpleasant milestone of the highest on record.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the average fuel bill only climbed to about $71.
So far, the statistics show Australians have kept driving in the same numbers, despite the higher costs.
So what now?
What indeed.
The prospect of an imminent end to the Iran war appears slim.
Even if the US and Israel declare “mission accomplished”, it’s not at all clear that oil shipments will spring back to where they were before the conflict, or that prices will retreat to pre-war levels.
Analysts at CBA have warned that the hostilities could last for months, not weeks.
The IEA has suggested countries pursue measures to take pressure off the demand for fuel, like promoting work from home or even lowering speed limits.
Some countries have mandated four-day working weeks for some public servants. The last resort will be rationing – which hasn’t happened in Australia since 1979.
There has been a lot of focus on how much fuel we have in reserve in case the shipments stop turning up.
The government has a mandated minimum stockholding obligation for refiners and suppliers (and no, none of these reserves are held overseas).
As at 17 March (the latest figures as at time of writing), these reserves were equivalent to:
38 days of usual consumption of petrol
30 days of diesel
30 days of jet fuel
Is this enough? Again, it all depends how long the strait of Hormuz remains closed.
And it’s worth pointing out that the IEA requires all member countries which are net importers of oil and oil products (including Australia) to maintain reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of imports.
We’ve never fulfilled that requirement, and in fact have the lowest reserves by this measure among all IEA countries.
