Australians planning to fly to Europe in the northern summer face uncertainty over routes, insurance and even safety, as well as rising prices, as a result of the Middle East war.

Major airlines operating through the region – including Emirates and Qatar, both popular choices for Australians heading to Europe – are still reeling amid the war between Israel, the US and Iran. Both carriers are only operating limited flights as they work to alleviate a backlog of passengers stuck in Dubai or Doha.

But with European summer on the horizon, Australians are questioning how they may get overseas, and what it might cost.

How has the Iran war impacted flights?

Zara Zarezadeh, a lecturer in tourism at Griffith University, says any international event, whether it be a conflict, political instability or a pandemic, would influence tourist behaviour in both the short and long term.

“Sometimes travellers adjust their destination rather than cancel their trips. They may choose an alternate destination, or transit hubs that they feel are more safe,” she says. Australians were likely to look towards airports in Asia, mainly Singapore, and airlines that operate through them.

Those routes can result in longer flying times, more connections or an increased cost for a direct, and in turn “perceived safer”, route, she says. Other travellers could also opt for refundable or flexible tickets that carry their own expense.

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Singapore Airlines said it would not comment on demand for specific routes through the hub in the city-state. Its latest monthly operating results, however, showed flights between the country and Australia and New Zealand at more than 91% capacity, on average.

Zarezadeh added that people will likely be monitoring the news closely in the coming weeks as many Australians begin planning for their European summer holidays.

“The main issue is how do people get from Australia to Europe, because [to them] Europe is a safe destination” and away from the war, she says.

“For many people, now is the time that they book their travel if they want to go to Europe for the summer. Some of those Australians may choose to not go, or they may choose a safer destination – southern Asia, Japan, New Zealand.

“These are the alternatives. Not an alternative for Europe, but it’s safer, closer and cheaper for them.”

The same thinking will be taking place overseas as travellers in Europe consider their own plans to head to Australia and bring their tourist dollars with them.

Tourism Australia, the main government agency tasked with selling the country to international visitors, has been monitoring the situation to see what impacts there may be after the immediate disruptions to travel.

The agency maintains that Australia is open to visitors, although it is monitoring travel restrictions as they develop.

“Whilst there has been some disruption to air travel, Australia continues to welcome visitors from around the world,” Tourism Australia’s managing director, Robin Mack, says.

“We are closely monitoring the situation as it is unfolding and engaging with our network of people and partners internationally, along with the industry here, to understand any impacts in tourism to Australia.”

Additional costs are already being passed on to consumers.

Qantas said on Tuesday it would increase fares across its international routes “in response to rising costs, including the significant increases in jet fuel prices”.

Perth to London route stopping in Singapore

Australia’s flag carrier said it was already seeing high demand for long-haul flights, particularly those to Europe. Bookings to and from Europe between April and June have already increased.

“Lower fare options are selling more quickly than usual, and we encourage customers to book early to secure the best available deals,” Qantas said in a statement.

“Flights on Qantas’ European routes, including Perth-London, Perth-Paris and services via Singapore, are more than 90 per cent full in March, which is approximately 15 percentage points higher than normal for this time of year.”

Qantas does not operate any flights to the Middle East and its planes have been operating as scheduled. The usual non-stop route from Perth to London has been temporarily operating via Singapore for a refuelling stop, which allows an extra 60 passengers on each flight.

Zarezadeh says she is not surprised airlines are passing on increased costs to travellers so quickly, but also thinks those extra expenses could pan out in other ways.

Travel insurance excludes war

Difficulty getting travel insurance – which broadly carves out any coverage for areas at war – comes with its own inherent risk if people get stuck in a conflict area.

Southern Cross Travel Insurance released a report earlier this month that found nearly two-thirds of Australians say politics is the main reason they would avoid a destination. The document found Australians were less likely to visit both the US and the Middle East compared with last year’s report, even before the war in Iran broke out.

Like almost all insurers, Southern Cross does not cover any losses due to war.

“Like everyone else, we’re watching what unfolds, and we’re hoping for a swift resolution of hostilities,” Jess Strange, the group’s chief customer officer, says.

“As has been discussed widely and advised by the Insurance Council of Australia, travel insurers have a general exclusion when it comes to war. This means they are unable to cover costs incurred as a direct result of such events.

“However, your travel insurer may still be able to cover you for costs unrelated to such events, depending on your policy. Above all, put your safety first.”

Australia’s Smartraveller website continued to warn citizens about travel to or through the Middle East. Many countries in the region are now listed as “do not travel”, including Israel, Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Lebanon, Qatar and the UAE, among others.

In the short term, Tony Unsworth, a British citizen who has been visiting Australia from France, is watching Emirates’ flight schedule with bated breath. He and his wife flew to the country through Dubai and were slated to reverse that trip at the end of March.

“We’re a bit nervous about understanding whether the flight will be able to still touch down in Dubai,” he says. “We’d probably prefer it if Emirates said we’ll take you through Singapore instead.”

Unsworth has not yet looked at alternative flights or called Emirates to see what the airline’s plans are for their flight.

“We’ve made a kind of deliberate policy of not doing anything as yet, given that obviously the people who are panicking are the ones who are actually there now,” Unsworth says.

“I’m sure the Emirates phone lines are going to be absolutely jammed without people like me calling.”