Regional service stations are struggling to replenish fuel supplies left empty by panic buying that has seen demand double and even triple in areas like the Barossa and Mildura amid an escalating Middle East conflict.

As a leading motoring group warned of a “vicious cycle” of motorists stockpiling petrol, Chris Bowen, the energy minister, stood up in parliament to urge Australians to remain calm, insisting the nation did not have a shortage of fuel supplies.

Amid reports of country service stations running dry, some regional fuel distributors have claimed the shortage is due to wholesale petrol being reserved for sale in the big cities.

“The biggest risk to availability in Australia right now is panic buying,” Bowen said, pointing to a “massive spike” in demand that had seen fuel sales up by 238% in the Adelaide Hills and Barossa, and 100% in Victoria’s Mildura.

“Of course providers also find difficulty in meeting the demand.”

Addressing reports that farmers were struggling to get their hands on diesel, he said: “I can say this very clearly, the difficulties you are experiencing are not currently as a result of a lack of fuel coming to our country, not as a result of a lack of fuel coming to our country.

“We have received supplies in recent days. We keep a close eye with the industry on what ships are on their way to Australia, and those ships are continuing to arrive.”

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Bowen’s comments came after regional Queensland fuel distributor Bartranz Petroleum on Tuesday said it had been receiving only about 10% of its usual volume of allocated fuel from Brisbane.

“It is frustrating hearing government ministers say ‘there is no shortage’,” Bartranz wrote on social media. “Whether it is a supply problem or a distribution problem, the result for rural Australia is exactly the same – we cannot access fuel.”

With petrol prices up by as much as 25 cents a litre in the major cities since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran, there have been widespread reports of people stockpiling fuel out of fear of it becoming even more expensive or running out.

Peter Khoury, a spokesperson for motoring group NRMA, who last week accused petrol retailers of price gouging, said panic buying was now putting pressure on supply, creating a vicious cycle that was only making the situation worse.

“As Australians, we can help by not panic buying,” he said. “But we’re also saying to the oil companies, let’s ensure that the supply chains are working … starting from the terminal.”

The government on Tuesday afternoon held an emergency meeting of a rapidly assembled taskforce that brought together peak farming, transport and fuel bodies alongside four federal ministers.

The group committed to working together to share information and identify emerging issues, and at its first meeting recognised that while there had been some supply chain pressures in regional areas, the country’s fuel supply remained stable.

Peter Jones, the interim executive director of the Motor Trades Association of Australia, said some regional and rural service stations simply could not replenish their stocks quickly enough to meet the surge in demand.

“There’s plenty of petrol in the country, but [it’s] designed to be distributed in normal circumstances,” said Jones, who is also the president of the Victorian Automotive Chamber of Commerce.

Jones said panic buying had “actually changed a market dynamic”, which was amplified in the country because of the time it took to get fuel there, creating a serious situation for farmers who relied on diesel.

“It’s a tyranny of distance,” he said. “The other thing is … that some of the independent [service stations] are running out because if they don’t have a contract with one of the big oil companies, they may be going to the back of the list when it comes to being resupplied.”

Jones said independent petrol stations that had “arrangements” with big oil companies to supply them with fuel, rather than formal contracts mandating a certain volume, may not be able to request a top-up like they usually would.

He urged people to buy their fuel as they normally would, and to be respectful of service station staff amid reports of some customers being abusive or aggressive “when there is no fuel or the prices are much higher than they expected”.

Jones said a sharp drop overnight in the price of crude oil was promising but attempting to predict how long the conflict would last – and whether prices would rise again – was like “trying to put darts in a moving dartboard”.

Growing community friction around the availability and price of fuel comes as an analyst at CBA said the US-Israel war on Iran would last for months, not weeks.

The global benchmark oil price, Brent crude, traded at a little over US$70 at the end of February, but spiked as high as US$118 at the start of this week before Donald Trump signalled a possible end to the war by saying America’s military objectives were “pretty much complete”.

The Brent crude price fell significantly after the US president’s comments.

Oil fetched just shy of US$93 a barrel on Tuesday afternoon, according to Bloomberg, up about 30% in March.

Madison Cartwright, CBA’s senior geoeconomics analyst, predicted the conflict “will continue to escalate from here, despite recent comments” by Trump.

That means Australians may need to get used to fuel prices well in excess of $2 a litre, pushing the weekly fuel bill for the average household towards a record high of $75, according to AMP’s chief economist, Shane Oliver.