Russian central bank delivers surprise rate cut
The Russian central bank has cut its key interest rate by a half a percentage point to 15.5% on Friday, in a surprise move as the country tries to shore up its slowing economy.
The move was predicted by just eight of the 24 analysts polled by Reuters ahead of the decision.
The bank said in a statement:
The Bank of Russia will assess the need for a further key rate cut at its upcoming meetings depending on the sustainability of the inflation slowdown and the dynamics of inflation expectations.
The baseline scenario assumes the average key rate to be in the range from 13.5% to 14.5% per annum in 2026. This means that monetary conditions will remain tight.”
Russia’s economy has come under strain from high borrowing costs, after the central bank increased the interest rate last year to fight inflation. Growth has slowed amid falling oil prices – a key source of government revenue – as well as Western sanctions.
The Russian government has forecast growth of 1.3% this year, after 1.0% in 2025. The central bank estimates growth of around 0.5-1.5% this year.
The bank said:
The upward deviation of the Russian economy from a balanced growth path is decreasing…Growth in domestic demand will moderate in the coming months. Business sentiment demonstrates the same expectations.”
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Gold is recovering today too, up 1.1% at $4,973.1 per ounce, gaining back some ground after dropping by about 3% yesterday.
The yellow metal came under pressure after data released on Wednesday showed the US job market began 2026 on firmer footing than expected, reinforcing the view that policymakers may keep interest rates elevated for longer.
Higher interest rates can make gold less attractive to some investors, as the metal does not pay a yield. Gold will be one to watch later this afternoon when the US releases inflation data for January.
US and Taiwan finalise deal to cut trade tariffs
Donald Trump has signed a trade deal with Taiwan that will reduce almost all of its tariffs and unlock billions of dollars worth of investment in the US chip industry.
It formalises an agreement between Washington and Taipei announced in January, lowering tariffs on Taiwanese goods from 20% to 15%.
US trade representative Jamieson Greer said in a statement:
President Trump’s leadership in the Asia-Pacific region continues to generate prosperous trade ties for the United States with important partners across Asia, while further advancing the economic and national security interests of the American people.”
The Taiwanese government said the new tariff rate set allows its companies to compete on a level field with Japan, South Korea and the European Union. It also said the agreement “eliminated” the disadvantage from a lack of a free trade.
Taiwan also pledged to invest about $250 billion in US industries, such as computer chips, AI applications and energy, as the US bolsters its semiconductor supply chains and ramps up investment in American manufacturing.
The FTSE 100 is still holding up this morning, up 0.13% as it recovers from some of the AI fear trade that has dominated the stock market this week.
Neil Wilson, investor strategist at Saxo Markets, says that a broad AI fear trade is taking place, touching most parts of the market – apart from those that are more sheltered from the disruption: materials, energy and staples.
The 3-month chart below shows a “broadening bull market”, Wilson says, with trackers for materials (XLB), energy (XLE), consumer staples (XLP) and industrials (XLI) all rising.
While Anthropic’s legal AI tool triggered a sell-off in software and analytics businesses this month, fear is starting to spread to other sectors too – shares in trucking and logistics companies have plunged after the launch of a new AI tool in the sector.
The announcement about the performance capability of Algorhythm’s SemiCab platform, which it claimed was helping customers scale freight volumes by 300% to 400% without having to increase headcount, sparked an almost 30% surge in the company’s share price on Thursday.
But its impact sent the Russell 3000 Trucking Index – which tracks shares in the US trucking sector – down 6.6% on Thursday, with CH Robinson Worldwide plunging 15% by the close of trading, having been down as much as 24%.
You can find my colleague Mark Sweney’s full story here:
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Paul Thwaite is now best-paid NatWest boss in decades
Paul Thwaite is now the highest earning CEO at NatWest Group since his disgraced predecessor Fred Goodwin was handed £7.7m in the lead-up to the financial crisis (and, let’s not forget, its £45bn bailout) in 2006.
I asked during the earnings media call this morning whether Thwaite was comfortable with his new £6.6m pay package for 2025, and whether it was an appropriate moment to be returning to pre-financial crisis pay levels.
This was Thwaite’s response:
The first thing I’d say is that I recognise that senior roles in financial services, in banking and actually in wider professional services, are very well paid. I appreciate that. I know that, I believe I’m very fortunate, and it would be churlish for me to suggest otherwise.
The exec pay policy is set by the board, It’s voted on by shareholders. There’s obviously a very close link between reward and performance. And it goes up and down depending upon performance. So that’s all I’ll say on that, really.
I’ve been here a long time and very proud of what we’ve achieved over the last couple of years as the bank. We have a fantastic team and we’re trying to make sure we support the UK economy, and that’s where all my time and energy goes.”
Aluminium prices slip after report Trump 'plans to roll back' some tariffs
The price of aluminium has slipped this morning as investors digest reports that Donald Trump could roll back some tariffs on aluminium and metal goods.
The contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 1.76% to close daytime trading at 23,195 yuan ($3,355.27) a tonne. The benchmark three-month aluminium on the London Metal Exchange also dipped, down by as much as 1.18% to $3,063.50 a tonne.
The UK’s blue-chip FTSE 100 is up 0.34% early doors this morning, led by software and analytics giant Relx. Its shares are up by about 3.6%, recovering slightly from a brutal sell-off this month triggered by fears around the launch of plug-in legal products from the AI business Anthropic to its Claude Cowork office assistant.
Relx shares are looking a bit better this morning, at about £21.37 apiece, but the new Claude tool has still shaken investor confidence: analysts at both Bernstein and Deutsche Bank have cut their target prices for the stock. DB has reduced from £37 to £30.50, while Bernstein has cut from £43.45 to £34.50, according to Reuters.
NatWest profits up 24% after securing biggest deal since 2008
NatWest has beat expectations this morning with a 24% rise in pre-tax profit to £7.7bn last year.
The results come days after the bank announced a £2.7bn deal to buy Evelyn Partners, one of the biggest wealth managers in the country and NatWest’s biggest deal since its government bailout in 2008.
Matt Britzman, a senior equity analyst at the investment broker Hargreaves Lansdown, says the results will be reassuring for investors after a rocky week for its share price.
Result beat expectations across the board, with profits coming in 10% ahead. The standout was lending income, while tighter cost control and lower bad-loan charges gave profits an extra lift.
The balance sheet also looks healthier, with capital ticking up (though there was a benefit from the smaller-than-hoped buyback announced earlier in the week). Looking ahead, management’s 2026 outlook looks cautious rather than ambitious, but that’s typical for NatWest and leaves room for upgrades as we move through the year.”
He does however note that there is still a question mark around the price tag for Evelyn Partners.
Buybacks are still on the cards, but at a reduced level for the time being. The push for lucrative non-interest income shouldn’t come as a surprise, and while the price may feel lofty, the strategic rationale looks solid.”
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Introduction: Trump plans to dial back tariffs on metal and aluminium goods - reports
Good morning and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Donald Trump is reportedly planning to scale back some of his trade tariffs on steel and aluminium goods.
The US president announced tariffs of up to 50% on steel and aluminium imports last year, including goods made from those metals such as washing machines and ovens.
The Financial Times has reported this morning that the Trump administration is reviewing the list of products affected by the tariffs, and plans to exempt some of those items.
The US would instead launch more targeted national security probes into specific goods, the FT reports, citing three unnamed people familiar with the matter.
These people told the FT that US trade officials believe the tariffs are hurting consumers by raising prices for goods within the US.
It comes as Americans increasingly say they are struggling with the cost of living, with more than 70% reporting in October that their monthly costs had risen by between $100 and $749. The FT cites a Pew Research Center poll from January that suggests roughly 7 in 10 US adults rate economic conditions in the country as fair or poor.
Elsewhere this morning, NatWest has just posted its full-year earnings, which show its boss Paul Thwaite has secured an annual pay package of £6.6m, a 33% increase compared with the year prior.
It comes a year after the bank privatised and lifted its banker bonus cap. Thwaite is not the only banker enjoying a purple patch at NatWest – its committee agreed to a 2025 bonus pool of £495m for its staff, 10.8% higher than the 2024 bonus pool of £446.6m.
The agenda
7am GMT: Earnings from NatWest, Capgemini
10am GMT: Eurozone trade data
1pm GMT: Moderna earnings
1:30pm GMT: US inflation for January
Munich security conference
