Closing post
Time to wrap up…
Oracle’s shares have tumbled by up to 15% today after its latest quarterly financial results disappointed Wall Street.
The business software company, co-founded by Donald Trump ally Larry Ellison, saw roughly $80bn vanish from its value, falling from $630bn to $550bn in market capitalization and fuelling fears of a bubble in artificial intelligence-related stocks. Shares of chipmaker Nvidia, seen as a bellwether for the AI boom, fell after Oracle’s.
The drop extended a 11.5% fall during after-hours trading that followed results showing a lower-than-expected 14% rise in revenues to $16bn (£12bn) in the latest quarter.
Investors were also spooked by Oracle raising forecasts for its already-enormous investment in AI. It expects capital expenditure to jump by 40% to $50bn, with the bulk of the increase aimed at building datacentres.
In a busy day for AI news, Walt Disney has announced a $1bn equity investment in OpenAI, enabling the AI start-up’s Sora video generation tool to use its characters….
…while Google DeepMind is to build its first “automated science laboratory” in the UK, in a boost to the country’s artificial intelligence ambitions.
Meanwhile in Scotland, two green biotechnology firms have announced they will build new factories at the Grangemouth site which will employ up to 460 people.
Interest rates were cut in Turkey…
..and held at zero in Switzerland.
FTSE 100 closes higher
Britain’s stock market has ended the day higher, as the City shrugs off AI bubble worries.
The FTSE 100 share index has closed 47 points higher at 9703, up 0.49%, its highest closing level in a week.
Metlen Energy (+5.3%), Ashtead Group (+4.7%) and JD Sports (+3.5%) led the risers, with Informa (-3.2%) and Smith & Nephew (-2.7%) the top fallers.
“US tech stocks pulled back after Oracle shocked the market with weaker than expected results and plans to keep doling out the cash on AI-related investments,” says Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, adding:
“Names in the broader AI universe were in the red, including Arm Holdings, Broadcom, Advanced Micro Devices and Nvidia, as tech investors wondered if there has been too much exuberance in the space.
“It’s stoked bubble fears again, leading to a wobbly market just days before Christmas. Investors want to know when all this AI money is going to generate a positive financial return, and it’s unclear if that’s happening sooner or later.
“Hot on the heels of a US interest rate cut were jobless claims figures that came in higher than expected. The Fed is watching the labour market closely for signs of weakness and any notable deterioration would strengthen the argument for more interest rate cuts down the line.
“Meanwhile on this side of the Atlantic, the FTSE 100 burst to life in afternoon trading, with materials, consumer cyclicals and healthcare leading the way.”
Disney to invest $1bn in OpenAI, allowing characters in Sora video tool
In other artificial intelligence news, Walt Disney has announced a $1bn equity investment in OpenAI, enabling the AI start-up’s Sora video generation tool to use its characters.
Users of Sora will be able to generate short, user-prompted social videos that draw on more than 200 Disney, Marvel, Pixar and Star Wars characters as part of a three-year licensing agreement between OpenAI and the entertainment giant.
The agreement – a landmark deal amid intense anxiety in Hollywood over the impact of artificial intelligence on the future of entertainment – will not cover talent likenesses or voices.
Bob Iger, Disney’s CEO, hailed a deal which paired his firm’s “iconic stories and characters” with OpenAI’s AI technology. It will place “imagination and creativity directly into the hands of Disney fans in ways we’ve never seen before”, he claimed.
Dow hits record high
Despite AI concerns, the Dow Jones industrial average has hit a new alltime high.
The DJIA, which contains 30 large US companies, is up 457 points or 0.95% at 48,515 points.
Most stocks on the Dow are up, as traders welcome yesterday’s cut to US interest rates.
Oracle is not in the Dow, but it is in the Nasdaq composite index – which has fallen by almost 1%
Joe Mazzola, head trading & derivatives strategist at Charles Schwab, says:
“Oracle’s results disappointed, hitting tech stocks after the market neared record highs Wednesday on the Fed rate cut. Broadcom reports later, providing another look at AI demand.”
Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index, says:
“Oracle has dropped a cold splash of reality on the AI-trade frenzy, reminding markets that not all AI-related spending is a guaranteed home run.”
Oracle drags other AI stocks down too
Some other artificial intelligence-related stocks are also falling in New York.
Chipmaker Nvidia is leading the fallers on the Dow Jones industrial average, down 2.7%.
Semiconductor designers Synopsys and Arm Holdings have both lost 3.2%, and chipmaker AMD is down 3.1%, and data firm Palantir has dropped by 2.8%.
Oracle shares tumble over 15%
As feared, shares in Oracle have tumbled at the start of trading as Wall Street gives its verdict to the tech giant’s results last night.
Oracle’s shares have dropped by 15.7% at the start of trading, down to $188.29. That, by my maths, knocks almost $100bn off the company’s market capitalisation.
As flagged earlier (see opening post), Oracle missed revenue forecasts last night – and also hiked its capital expenditure plans by $15bn.
That has led to mounting concerns about the company’s massive AI spending and the lack of a clear timeline on returns from the investments.
Updated
Cost of insuring Oracle debt against default jumps
Back in the AI world, the cost of insuring Oracle’s debt against default has risen to its highest in at least five years.
That reflects investor concerns about Oracle’s borrowing spree to fund its AI investments, after it missed Wall Street forecasts last night.
Reuters flags that Oracle’s five-year credit default swaps, a derivative that pays bondholders in the event an issuer defaults, rose by nearly 12 basis points on the day to 139 bps, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
This was the highest since at least September 2020, according to LSEG data.
It means it would cost $139 to insure $10,000 of Oracle debt, so still implying a low risk.
Oracle shares are currently down 13.7% in pre-market trading.
Hopes for more green industries to move to Grangemouth
Gillian Martin, the Scottish government’s net zero secretary, said she expected other green, low carbon industries such as plastics recycling and sustainable aviation fuel to set up in Grangemouth following the decision by the Scottish and UK governments to fund two bio-technology factories there (see earlier post).
She said the new MiAlgae plant at Grangemouth, which expects to employ 75 people making omega 3 oils for animal and fish farm feed from whisky waste from spring next year, was additional to the types of industries proposed by the Project Willow programme to attract major new employers to Grangemouth, published after PetroIneos announced it was closing its oil refinery there.
Speaking at the site of MiAlgae’s new plant, she said:
“The projects we are announcing today are outwith what we anticipated would be the main outcomes of Project Willow and that’s actually really exciting.
“Today we’re able to make announcements about tangible operations that are going to be here that are going to be providing highly skilled jobs. But I think the most exciting part of it is its future industries.
“It’s industries that are going to be displacing an awful lot of carbon intensive processes, like MiAlgae are doing today - meaning that we’re not importing fish oil from around the world, and we’ve actually got a more sustainable product, but highly skilled work as well.
“The only way to turn the terrible negativity - because people are losing their jobs in traditional industries like PetroIneos, who have made decisions that are outwith government control - is to step in and do what you say you’re going to do, and that’s actually facilitate replacement jobs happening in that area. And that’s what we’re doing here today. We’re only at the start of this.”
Michael Shanks, the UK government’s energy minister, said the announcement of nearly £10m in funding to build two new green biotechnology plants at Grangemouth, following the closure of PetroIneos’s oil refinery, was “a really important moment.”
Speaking as heavy machinery began cutting away tarmac for MiAlgae’s new plant, he said: “the truth is, we should have been doing a lot of this a long time ago.”
He said it took time to “get those viable projects coming forward [and] they give us not a sort of flash in the pan moment, they are sustainable, a business rooted in a community like this and interested in expanding”.
Shanks told the Guardian:
“Yes, it’s jobs early next year, which is really important for us to say - that there are jobs coming to Grangemouth very soon. But secondly, it’s a statement of faith that Grangemouth is a positive place, that actually, this isn’t just a place of decline as we’ve seen too much of, but is a huge opportunity as well.”
Pressed on whether enough was being done to demonstrate the transition to net zero created high value jobs and wealth, he said:
“We need to see a lot more examples of these kind of businesses coming forward to demonstrate the jobs. There are actually many and the thousands of jobs being created in Scotland right now in offshore wind, in hydrogen in ports. But we’re not telling the story often enough.
“MiAlgae is actually is a brilliant story to tell of good, well-paid sustainable jobs, of cutting edge innovation. But also it’s the climate argument in a nutshell. It’s good jobs here at Grangemouth, but they’re helping to save the planet.”
Green biotech firms to open factories in Grangemouth
Two green biotechnology firms have announced they will build new factories at Scotland’s Grangemouth site which will employ up to 460 people, in the first phase of projects to replace hundreds of jobs lost when the PetroIneos refinery closed down.
The projects by MiAlgae, a start-up based in Edinburgh which uses whisky waste to make fish-free Omega 3 oils, and Celtic Renewables, which uses whisky and agricultural byproducts to make chemicals, have won £10m in funding from the Scottish and UK governments to build new plants at Grangemouth.
MiAlgae’s founder and chief executive Douglas Martin said their Omega 3 plant would start production in the second quarter of 2026, employing 75 people. It uses whisky wash, a byproduct, of whisky production to produce plant-based Omega 3 for pet food and fish farm feed.
Martin said their modular plant, which has been given £3m by the UK and Scottish governments, can be rapidly expanded to eventually create up to 310 jobs. Celtic Renewables, which uses agricultural byproducts to make acetone, butanol and ethanol used in cosmetics, chemicals and has been given £6.23m to build a plant expected to employ 149 by 2030.
The projects are being funded by the Grangemouth just transition fund and are linked to the Project Willow programme run by Scottish Enterprise to replace the 400 jobs lost when Grangemouth’s refinery closed down earlier this year, fueling a political storm over mounting job losses from North Sea industries.
Its closure is believed to affect up to 4,200 other jobs in the wider supply chain, intensifying pressure on both governments and Scottish Enterprise to quickly bring in high value jobs.
Jan Robertson, Scottish Enterprise’s director of Grangemouth transition, said both firms were expected to be part of a closely integrated supply and production chain which connected waste and byproducts from farms, food producers and whisky distilleries with bio-energy and bio-technology companies.
The investment agency has been in talks with 140 firms interested in investing at Grangemouth: the long-term goal is to see a sustainable aviation fuel refinery and plastics recycling plants built there.
Updated
London's Heathrow Airport names former BT boss Jansen as chairman
City veteran Philip Jansen has a new challenge – steering Heathrow though its plans for a new runway and terminal expansion.
Jansen has today been named as the chairman of Heathrow, replacing Lord Paul Deighton when he steps down on 31 December.
Heathrow says:
Jansen’s significant experience working with private investors as well as successfully leading a business within a highly regulated environment means that he is ideally placed to help prepare the airport for its next phase of modernisation and oversee the airport’s future strategy.
That strategy includes Heathrow’s proposal for a £33bn scheme for a 2.2-mile (3.5km) north-western runway crossing the M25 motorway, which the government backed last month.
It is also proposing a £15bn project to expand Terminal 2 and ultimately closing Terminal 3.
Jansen has plenty of experience for the role; he’s currently Chair of WPP (the advertising group which is being relegated from the FTSE 100), and was previously the CEO of BT Group, Worldpay Group and Sodexo.
Jansen says:
“Heathrow is the UK’s gateway to growth, therefore I am delighted to be taking on the role as Chairman at this pivotal time for both the business and the country.
I’m keenly aware of the instrumental role Heathrow plays in the success of the UK economy and I’m motivated to play my part in its future, helping to navigate the UK’s hub as it looks to modernise and expand.”
Bain: Global M&A stages great rebound in 2025
A surge of $5bn-plus megadeals has helped to make 2025 the second-largest year for merger and acquisition activity on record, a new report from Bain & Company shows.
Technology M&A, powered by AI-related deals, was behind the year’s surge in merger activity, Bain reports, with $4.8tn of M&A activity this year.
Those $5bn-plus deals “contributed 75% of strategic deal value growth”, Bain says – big bets on large-scale, transformational mergers that are potentially both high-risk and high reward for acquiring companies.
Suzanne Kumar, executive vice president of Bain & Company’s M&A and Divestitures practice, explains:
“Companies across industries are seeing an urgent need to reboot strategy. Amid improved deal market conditions, with both buyers and sellers more confident about valuations, strategic buyers are again putting M&A front and center to drive business growth. The number one reason for increased dealmaking was M&A’s central role in strategy, according to our survey of more than 300 M&A executives,” said
“We see important implications from the dealmaking rebound. This was a year of big bets by companies that traditionally make few deals, and often large-ticket deals become make-or-break moves. Big deals grounded in sound strategy can transform a business and set a new growth trajectory. But deals for less-strategic reasons can be a recipe for value destruction. It’s impossible to overstate the importance to value-creation of clear and early answers to fundamental questions on factors such as shared vision, operating models, decision-making and execution and culture.”
French insurer Axa has revealed it is exercising greater caution on the artificial intelligence build-out when backing financing for the sector.
“We are convinced of the medium-term trend, but we want to avoid financing technological gambles,” AXA Group chief investment officer Jean-Baptiste Tricot told Bloomberg, adding that AI infrastructure has seen “astronomical volumes allocated in recent months.”
Tricot said:
“We are trying to avoid overly specialized data centers and data centers that are dedicated or customized for a single player or a single technology, because we don’t know yet which actor or technology will ultimately win the AI race.”
Axa is “more interested in financing data centers that have inference and general-purpose capabilities,” he added. More here.
Interest rates cut in Turkey
Turkey’s central bank has cut interest rates, in response to a slowdown in inflation, but borrowing costs remain very high.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye has cut its policy rate from 39.5% to 38%, and also lowered its overnight lending and borrowing rates.
It says:
In November, consumer inflation was lower than expected due to a downward surprise in food prices.
Following an increase in September, the underlying trend of inflation declined slightly in October and November. Quarterly GDP growth turned out higher than projected in the third quarter.
Leading indicators for the last quarter point out that demand conditions continue to support the disinflation process. While showing signs of improvement, inflation expectations and pricing behavior continue to pose risks to the disinflation process.
Mexico approves up to 50% tariffs on countries including China and India
Global trade tensions have escalated further today after Mexico’s Senate approved tariff hikes of up to 50% next year on imports from China and several other Asian countries.
The new levies are meant to bolster local industry, and will raise or impose new duties of up to 50% from 2026 on certain goods such as autos, auto parts, textiles, clothing, plastics and steel.
They will apply to goods from countries without trade deals with Mexico, including China, India, South Korea, Thailand and Indonesia. The majority of products will see tariffs of up to 35%.
China’s Commerce Ministry has criticised the move, and urged Mexico to rectify “unilateral, protectionist practices” as soon as possible.
The ministry added that although the duties in the tariff bill Mexico passed on Wednesday have been scaled back from the initial announcement, they are still damaging to China’s national interests.
Reuters is reporting that Mexico’s decision to raise tariffs as high as 50% will affect $1bn worth of shipments from major Indian car exporters, including Volkswagen and Hyundai.
Over in Switzerland, the central bank has left interest rates on hold at 0%, a day after America’s central bank cut rates.
Explaining the decision, the SNB says:
Inflation in recent months has been slightly lower than expected. In the medium term, however, inflationary pressure is virtually unchanged compared to the last monetary policy assessment.
Our monetary policy helps to keep inflation within the range consistent with price stability and supports economic development. We will continue to monitor the situation and adjust our monetary policy if necessary, in order to ensure price stability.
Russia's oil and fuel export revenues lowest level since Ukraine invasion
In the energy sector, Russia’s revenues from exports of crude oil and refined products has fallen to its lowest level since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The International Energy Agency has reported this morning that Moscow’s sales of fossil fuels fell again in November due to lower export volumes and weaker prices.
The Paris-based IEA reported that Russian oil exports declined by 420,000 barrels per day in November. That, combined with weaker prices, slashed revenues to $11bn, $3.6bn less than a year ago.
Looking ahead, the IEA predicted that global oil demand will rise by 830,000 barrels per day in 2025 “amid an improving macroeconomic and trade outlook”, adding:
These brighter prospects extend to our 2026 forecast, which we have upgraded by 90 kb/d, to 860 kb/d y-o-y.
Google’s plans may intensify concerns that the UK is too close to Big Tech firms, as it tries to hold a seat on the AI bandwagon.
Imogen Parker, associate director at the research body Ada Lovelace Institute, says (via the FT):
“We need to ask who is setting the agenda for the UK’s future with AI.”
“In the absence of independent regulation or scrutiny, we’re at the mercy of technology companies’ commercial interests aligning with what the public want.”
“Google partnering with the government to explore how to refine its own Gemini model may or may not benefit teachers and pupils, but it will undoubtedly benefit Google.”
DeepMind also say they are deepening their collaboration with the UK government – and the new robotic science lab is just part of it.
They’re also giving priority access to its “AI for Science” models to UK scientists, including:
AlphaEvolve - a Gemini-powered coding agent for designing advanced algorithms
AlphaGenome - an AI model to help scientists better understand our DNA
AI co-scientist - a multi-agent AI system that acts as a virtual scientific collaborator
WeatherNext - a family of state-of-the-art weather forecasting models
In return, the UK will look into how teachers can use Google’s Gemini AI model for teaching England’s national curriculum.
The public sector will also test Google’s AI tools, including Extract - a tool for council planners that uses Gemini to transform old planning documents into digital data.
Google DeepMind to build its first 'automated science laboratory' in the UK
Google DeepMind is to build its first “automated science laboratory” in the UK, in a boost to the country’s artificial intelligence ambitions.
The lab will be focused on materials science research, and will involve “world-class robotics” synthesizing and characterizing hundreds of materials per day, with the goal of significantly shortening the timeline for identifying transformative new materials.
Google DeepMind say the lab, to be built in 2026, will “help turbocharge scientific discovery”, explaining:
Discovering new materials is one of the most important pursuits in science, offering the potential to reduce costs and enable entirely new technologies.
For example, superconductors that operate at ambient temperature and pressure could allow for low cost medical imaging and reduce power loss in electrical grids. Other novel materials could help us tackle critical energy challenges by unlocking advanced batteries, next-generation solar cells and more efficient computer chips.
DeepMind is run by Sir Demis Hassabis, who won the Nobel prize for Chemistry last year for his work using AI to predict and design the structure of proteins (older readers may fondly remember his earlier work on computer games such as Theme Park and Syndicate).
Shares in European semiconductor and tech firms have fallen in early trading after Oracle’s results last night.
The STOXX Europe Technology index is down 0.8%, after Oracle missed market expectations.
Drax considers data centre at Yorkshire power plant
In other AI-related news, power company Drax is drawing up plans to add one gigawatt of data-centre capacity to its Yorkshire power plant.
In its results this morning, the company reveals it is preparing a planning application for a data centre of around MW on land at its Drax Power Station.
It believes infrastructure and transformers previously used to support coal generation could support the operation of a data centre at Drax Power Station as soon as 2027.
Drax says it is focused on options to maximise value from the Drax Power Station site, which covers more than 1,000 acres.
The biomass plant is subsidised to burn wood pellets to generate electricity.
Updated
Oracle price targets cut
Financial analysts have been quick to cut their target price for Oracle’s shares following last night’s results (and the drop in after-hours trading).
According to Reuters, Barclays have cut their target price for Oracle Corp to $310 from $330
Bank of America cut their price objective to $300 from $368, and JP Morgan cut their target price to $230 from $270.
Before releasing its results, Oracle closed at $223.01 last night, before falling to $197.26 in after-hours trading…
The disappointment over Oracle’s earnings report is rippling through the AI sector.
In Japan, shares in Softbank – a major AI investor – have fallen by 7.7%, pulling down the Nikkei 225 stock index.
Tokai Tokyo Intelligence Laboratory market analyst Shuutarou Yasuda explains:
“The Nikkei opened higher to track overnight Wall Street’s rises, but the gains were erased by declines of SoftBank Group.”
“The earnings of Oracle raised concerns if the data centre project, in which SoftBank Group is involved, would proceed as expected.”
Overnight risk sentiment is “subdued after weaker revenue and higher capex requirement from Oracle”, reports Mohit Kumar of investment bank Jefferies.
Introduction: Oracle shares slide as earnings cast doubt over AI profitability
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Fears about the profitability of the AI industry are on the rise again, after results from Oracle failed to impress Wall Street.
Oracle, part of the race to provide huge computing power for AI companies, missed revenue and profit expectations last night. It also reported a jump in spending on AI data centers – an area where it has already been spending (and borrowing) heavily.
Capital expenditure for the 2026 fiscal year is now expected to be $15bn higher than the $35bn Oracle estimated in September, showing that the cost of constructing the infrastructure for the AI revolution is rising fast… before many profits show up.
Oracle also booked a one-off $2.7bn pre-tax gain through the sale of its stake in chip designer Ampere Computing.
Oracle chairman Larry Ellison took time out of reshaping the media industry to explain:
“Oracle sold Ampere because we no longer think it is strategic for us to continue designing, manufacturing and using our own chips in our cloud datacenters.
We are now committed to a policy of chip neutrality where we work closely with all our CPU and GPU suppliers. Of course, we will continue to buy the latest GPUs from NVIDIA, but we need to be prepared and able to deploy whatever chips our customers want to buy. There are going to be a lot of changes in AI technology over the next few years and we must remain agile in response to those changes.”
For the last quarter, Oracle reported total revenue of $16.06bn, below with analysts’ average estimate of $16.21bn.
And looking ahead, Oracle said that adjusted profit for the current fiscal third quarter would be $1.64 to $1.68 per share, below analyst estimates of $1.72 per share, according to LSEG data. Oracle’s third-quarter revenue growth forecast of between 16% and 18% also missed analyst estimates of 19.4% growth to $16.87 billion,
The initial response was brutal, with Oracle’s shares sliding by 11.5% in after hours trading on Wall Street.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, explains why:
The company continued to burn cash last quarter: its free cash flow reached a negative $10 billion. To make matters worse, the company said that it expects capex to reach about $50 billion in the fiscal year ending May 2026 – $15 billion more than its September forecast – and investments at Oracle are financed by debt: overall, the company has about $106 billion in debt.
Frankly, the report was not dramatically bad, but it came to confirm concerns around heavy AI spending, financed by debt, with an unknown timeline for revenue generation, sending Oracle shares down by more than 11% in after-hours trading.
The agenda
9am GMT: IEA’s monthly oil market report
9.50am GMT: Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey speaks at Financial Times Global Boardroom event
11am GMT: Turkey’s interest rate decision
1.30pm GMT: US trade data for September
1.30pm GMT: US initial jobless claims
