Retailers are preparing for a quieter Boxing Day this year despite freedom from pandemic restrictions as the cost of living crisis weighs on shoppers’ budgets.

Spending is expected to hit almost £3.8bn on 26 December, according to research by GlobalData for Vouchercodes.

That is down almost 4% on last year, which was already a tough one for retailers because of fears of the Omicron variant of Covid-19, which deterred some people from hitting the high street and led to restrictions on store openings in some areas.

That revenue figure indicates a big dive in the volume of items bought, given that inflation is running at more than 10%, so shoppers will be spending more per purchase. More than a third of this year’s Boxing Day bargain hunting is expected to be done online, where £1.25bn will be spent.

Adding to the dampener on the traditional post-Christmas shopping spree is the fact that multiple major chains – including Aldi, Iceland, John Lewis, Pets at Home, Poundland and Beaverbrooks – will be closed on Boxing Day. Many are carrying on a tradition started in the pandemic, and in some cases even earlier, of rewarding hard-working staff with a day of rest after the busy festive shopping season.

Richard Walker, the managing director of Iceland Foods, said: “This year has taken its toll on everyone, so officially closing our doors on Boxing Day is just a small token of appreciation to our employees.

“As we move into the winter months the cost of living burden will unfortunately only intensify, and as we work relentlessly to pass on savings and support to our customers, we must also look after our teams who are at the forefront of this crisis every day across the UK.”

The expected fall in Boxing Day trade compared with last year continues a long decline in popularity of the annual shopping tradition, as the rise of the US-inspired November discount day Black Friday and the move towards starting end of year sales before Christmas Day have combined to steal its thunder.

This year, a total of £1.08bn is expected to be spent online on Christmas Day, for example, when not so long ago almost nothing used to be bought as stores were closed, although this is also a 4% drop on 2021.

Since Christmas Day falls on a Sunday this year, there will be an extra bank holiday when the shops are open – on Tuesday 27 December – meaning the bargain hunting can be spread over more days, further diluting the significance of 26 December takings.

“The combination of Black Friday and the vast amount of discounts we have had throughout the industry has brought a lot of those potential Boxing Day sales forward,” Richard Lim, an analyst at Retail Economics, said.

However, Lim added that for those in search of bargains, retailers were likely to be discounting heavily in an effort to clear stocks which were ordered at the beginning of the year when “conditions looked much rosier”.

“The Boxing Day and January [price cuts] will be deeper and much more widespread than normal because retailers are going to be desperate to covert stock into cash and shore up balance sheets as we go into a difficult situation with a recession in 2023.”

He suggested that there was a chance that shops could be busier than expected because of a combination of deep discounts and pent-up demand caused by the mix of strikes and snow before Christmas.

However, the expected tricky start to the post-Christmas sales will pile more pressure on retailers already suffering from a lacklustre winter hit by transport and postal strikes, snow and soaring bills for energy and food which have limited spare cash for spending on presents and treats.