Festive lights twinkle on the outside terrace of Upminster’s Osteria Due Amici Italian restaurant with outdoor tables placed beneath heaters, and indoor tables separated by Perspex screens.

Owner Edward Xhetani, 38, has done everything to entice customers and be Covid-compliant. It was due to be fully booked on Friday night. “But if we go into tier 3, I’m done. That’s the truth. I don’t have a chance,” he said.

At the furthest eastern reach of the District line, Upminster lies in the London borough of Havering, where coronavirus infection rates are among the highest in the capital.

Xhetani was banking on pre-Christmas trade. Instead, he faces the prospect of closing down and letting his 20 staff go. Takeaway deliveries, permitted under tier 3, are not financially viable. “I don’t think we will survive.”

He is immensely grateful to his regulars. “It’s a nice town. It really is a small village. I can’t thank everyone enough for their support,” he said.

However, he’s behind with his bills. His wife is pregnant with their second child. “What will I do?” he muses, considering the prospect of being forced to close. “I will roll my sleeves up. I don’t have a choice. I will look for another job.”

It is not just the pubs and restaurants that are badly affected along Corbets Tey Road, the main parade of shops in Upminster, about 20 miles from the centre of London. At noon on Friday, Ajay Patel, 63, and his wife, Jayshri, 61, are closing the shutters early on the newsagents they have run for 15 years. On Sunday they closed at 8.30am. “There are no customers,” said Jayshri. Their customer base is elderly and frightened to venture out. Some have died from Covid-19.

Although they deliver newspapers, the lack of footfall has brought a slump in sales of confectionery, drinks, stationery and other items they rely on at their shop, Bateman News Plus.

“Since March, I have had to throw away between £1,200 to £1,300 worth of chocolate and confectionery that was out of date,” said Ajay.

They will assess the shop’s future in the next three to four months. His wife is angry. “It’s definitely due to people not abiding by the rules,” she said. The country, she believes, is divided between those who respect the restrictions and those who do not. “And there are many who have been too selfish,” she said.

What has most angered Lynn Murphy, 56, are the anti-mask, anti-lockdown protests. “They shouldn’t have been allowed to happen,” she said. “That, and people stretching the rules. It’s the knock-on effect of all these things. That’s why things are the way they are now.”

She opened her florist and gift shop, Red Earth Floral Design, one year ago next to Upminster underground station, which then had a projected annual footfall of 6 million. During the first lockdown, that disappeared. As a non-essential shop, she had to close. Her business survived only because of funeral work and online orders.

Pre-Christmas business “could go either way”, she said, surrounded with Christmas table decorations and garlands.

“The rules have been contradictory,” she added, with many flouting them. “They are not thinking about the effect on businesses. And you’ve got people that are very complacent about it and think it’s all a conspiracy theory.

“I think it has divided us all. I think a lot of people now can’t be bothered to stick to them, and there’s a link to that and if we go into tier 3. The whole thing is very hard to control.”

For Jamie Wilson, 39, who works in insurance from home and lives alone, tier 3 would mean greater isolation with no dining outdoors with friends. “But I understand the reasons behind it,” he said. On a recent visit to Covent Garden, he was surprised at the crowds. “It was very busy, and that doesn’t help.”

He has noticed “people taking a little bit of creative licence” in defining their households. “It’s a shame if it ultimately leads to tier 3,” he said. But he understands the frustration. “So, someone might have a coffee with someone they shouldn’t,” he said. But it was important to look at it “holistically” and weigh up the effect on mental health.

Enjoying a coffee alone outside Costa, Teresa Hemo, 54, a bank teller, travels into central London daily, “and the trains are as busy as ever”. She regularly sees passengers ignoring the face mask rules. “I’m calm, not angry. What can I do about it? Anger won’t change it, there’s no point in getting into a row on the train, which I’ve seen loads of times.”

Crowded trains, people failing to observe social distancing in supermarkets “bumping into you”, all have contributed to rising rates. “It only takes one bad apple to change everything,” she said.

“We are all divided. But I will still remain doing what is right. There are still people adhering to it, and doing their best. My father-in-law is 92. A meal out, or having him with us for Christmas? I’d rather have him for Christmas.”