Graeme Wearden 

UK service sector slump levels off, as China growth surges – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
  
  

An office building in Beijing, China, last month
An office building in Beijing, China, last month Photograph: Thomas Peter/Reuters

Afternoon summary

Usually at this time, we’d be watching the early action on Wall Street.

But New York traders are on holiday to mark the Independence Day (which falls tomorrow). So European stock markets can’t take any direction from the US, so are still around their earlier lows.

So, a quick recap.

China’s service sector appears to be rebounding from its Covid-19 woes. The latest PMI survey shows activity growing at its fastest rate in a decade, as companies got back to normal in June.

The news propelled stocks higher in Asia, with China’s CSI 300 hitting its highest close in over five years.

The picture is more subdued in Europe. UK service sector firms reported that their slump has bottomed out in recent weeks, with a quarter reporting a jump in business.

But many are also cutting jobs, fuelling concerns that unemployment will head much higher this year.

In the eurozone, French services firms are growing, but Germany and Italy are more subdued and Ireland had another bad month.

Brazil, though, is really struggling - with companies reporting another sharp fall in activity.

Some UK pubs are preparing to reopen after more than three months of lockdown, but others are being more cautious.

European markets are ending the week on a low note, with the FTSE 100 down 1.2% or 77 poinst at 6163. The EU-wide Stoxx 600 has dipped by 0.6%.

That’s probably all for today. Have a lovely weekend. GW

Poundstretcher could close nearly half its stores in six weeks’ time, with 2,000 jobs at risk, after landlords and other creditors approved a rescue restructure, my colleague Sarah Butler reports.

Rents will be cut by up to 40% on 84 stores and held at current rates on 94 stores under the insolvency process known as a company voluntary arrangement (CVA) approved late on Thursday night.

Poundstretcher has agreed to pay rent on 253 stores for six weeks but warned landlords that the outlets could close after that if new deals could not be agreed. A further 23 stores owned by a company directly linked to Poundstretcher may also close as the division is expected to be put into administration next week.

The Labour Party has thrown its support behind calls for a wealth tax to cover the cost of the pandemic.

PA has the details:

Shadow chancellor Anneliese Dodds, in her first major speech in the role, told the government on Friday “to not increase taxes or cut support for low and middle-income people” during the crisis.

But she said a “new settlement” is needed to address the injustice of the worst-off paying more tax proportionally than high earners, while the richest derive a significant part of their income from wealth.

Dodds criticised the prime minister’s “muddled, confusing” and “much too slow” response to protecting the nation’s health during the Covid-19 outbreak.

An update on the pub situation - landlords in England can throw their doors open at 6am tomorrow, as part of the relaxing of Covid-19 rules.

That may not seem completely consistent with the government’s calls for responsible drinking, but at least it should prevent bars opening at 00.01am for late-night revelry.

Also, pubs would still need a licence to open that early, so it can’t be a total free-for-all. And, as flagged earlier, some are taking a cautious approach.

Brazil services companies slump again

Over in Brazil, service sector companies continue to suffer... as the country’s Covid-19 crisis intensifies.

The latest survey of Brazilian services firms shows that activity contracted again last month. Bosses reported a slump in new work, and a tumble in export orders again.

June’s IHS Markit Brazil Services Business Activity Index has come in at 35.9, up from 27.6 in May, a level showing a deep slump.

That’s much worse than the readings from the UK and the eurozone, and especially China, earlier today.

Markit says:

June’s survey of Brazilian service providers continued to indicate that the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is having a severe and adverse effect on the services economy.

Although easing further on April’s survey record, activity continued to fall sharply in June, undermined by another considerable drop in new work. Firms continued to cut employment in response, reflective in part of efforts to control costs. Latest data showed that operating expenses rose only marginally and at the slowest rate in the survey history.

Brazil’s services PMI hasn’t been above the 50 point mark, showing growth, since February:

Paul Smith, Economics Director at IHS Markit says it’s a grim picture:

“Despite easing somewhat since May, the downturn in Brazil’s services economy remains severe and of an unprecedented nature. Indeed, the latest data on activity and new business was again quite simply awful, with rapid falls recorded again as the country continues to grapple with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The slump in retail sales since the pandemic began has left many retailers unable to meet their rental payments.

Landlords are now counting their losses. Property group Landsec, which owns Bluewater in Kent and the Trinity Leeds shopping centre, has revealed it only received a third of the rent it was due last week, to cover the next three months.

Some retailers are hanging onto their cash, to ride out the downturn, while other unlucky chains have fallen into administration.

Here’s my colleague Larry Elliott on the recovery in China’s service sector, and the market reaction:

Tomorrow has been billed as Super Saturday, when thirsty Brits will be hammering on the nearest pub door for a pint after months of lockdown.

However, while pubs in England can reopen tomorrow, many are taking a cautious approach - concerned not to act riskily while Covid-19 is still around.

Pub chain Fuller, Smith & Turner told the City it will only open 27 pubs tomorrow.

Many (including one of my own fine Oxford locals, the Butchers Arms) will remain closed for a little longer, while the initial excitement dissipates, so publicans can operate safely.

Fullers says:

The Company is undertaking a phased, gradual reopening across the estate. On 4 July 2020, 27 pubs will open, with further pubs opening in groups over the following weeks. By the end of July, over 80% of our Managed Pubs and Hotels will be open.

We expect the majority of our Tenanted Inns to also reopen during July.

Rival chain Mitchells & Butlers is moving faster, planning to reopen three-quarters of its pubs tomorrow. It needs the business, having posted a loss of £121m for the last six months.

But, M&B also admitted yesterday that it has concerns:

We will be transparent with guests as to these measures such that they can trust in us.

Equally some consumers may not heed the measures put in place to restrict the spread of the virus, potentially putting our team members and other guests at risk.”

Updated

Stocks sink lower

Over in the City, stocks are heading lower.

The FTSE 100 is now down 70 points, or 1.1%, handing back all of yesterday’s gains after the strong US jobs report.

Covid-19 anxiety appears to be weighing on the market again, with jet engine maker Rolls-Royce now down 5.5%, and luxury fashion group Burberry losing 3.2%.

Bank shares are also under pressure, with Lloyds and Standard Chartered both off 3.3%.

The chairman of Royal Bank of Scotland, incidentally, has urged the Bank of England to lift curbs on dividends by the autumn.

Howard Davies warned that the banks were not currently ‘investible’, after being forced to freeze shareholder payments to cover likely Covid-19 losses.

Davies told a City & Financial webinar on Friday that:

“It’s probably fair to say the banking sector is not investible because when people try to do the models about what banks are worth they can’t plug in any numbers for cash out.

The CBI sums up the situation....

British consumers struggling to repay their car loans, or other credit bills, have been thrown a small lifeline:

The UK’s financial regulator has given customers of car finance and other forms of high-cost credit the option of freezing payments and repossessions for three more months, amid concerns about a mounting economic toll from the coronavirus pandemic. More here:

Duncan Brock, group director at the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply, says UK services companies (who make up around 70% of the economy) are struggling, based on today’s PMI report.

“Pipelines of new work were still severely weakened for the fourth consecutive month, and export orders were still in dire straits. With imposed travel and logistics restrictions disrupting supply chains overseas clients shied away from placing orders as the pandemic’s presence is still felt.

He’s also concerned that many more will be forced to cut jobs:

Businesses securing their premises to ensure Covid safety for staff and customers means operating costs are rising. Some firms are resorting to heavy discounting, others accelerating innovative solutions to change their operating model to stay in business. For others, the decision to shed jobs may be the only solution as the fight for survival continues and the UK economy grits its teeth for the months ahead.”

The UK PMI index may look like a V - but it’s not showing a V-shaped recovery. Instead, it suggest activity has stabilised.

Although, as economist Rupert Seggins points out, surveys will struggle to capture exactly what’s happening in the economy right now.

PMI: UK service sector still shrinking, but levelling off

The slump across Britain’s service sector is levelling off too as shops reopen - but the economy still remains very subdued.

The UK Service sector PMI, just released, has risen to 47.1 in June, better than May’s grim 29.0. However, that’s still in contraction territory (as it’s below 50), with many firms saying that conditions are very tough.

Roughly a third of companies said activity shrank in June, an improvement on the 54% in May and 79% in April. However, barely a quarter said business activity had actually picked up.

Services companies reported that new orders kept falling, although at a slower rate, leading to another cut in jobs -- suggesting unemployment is going to keep rising.

Markit says:

Around 33% of the survey panel reported a drop in business activity during June, while 28% signalled an expansion. The proportion of service providers experiencing a fall in business activity has eased sharply from 54% in May and 79% in April.

Survey respondents again cited highly subdued demand and disruptions related to the COVID-19 pandemic as factors constricting business activity in June.

However, there were also reports that an easing of lockdown measures and reopening of the UK economy had a favourable impact on business activity

Some companies also reported struggling to secure overseas business, due to “logistical difficulties and heightened global economic uncertainty.”

Updated

Just in: The eurozone’s economy shrank again last month - but at the slowest rate since the pandemic started.

Data firm Markit’s eurozone composite PMI, which measures activity across the economy, has risen to 48.5 from 31.9. That’s shows a small contraction (50 = stagnation).

It is better than the ‘flash’ reading of 47.5 recorded last month, suggesting growth picked up towards the end of June. But its much weaker than China (which, of course, emerged from lockdown earlier).

Companies reported that new business continued to decline in June, but at a much slower rate, with weak demand at home and abroad. Levels of new export business continued to fall at a severe pace in June.

France had a relatively good month, returning to growth during the month. However, Ireland suffered another chunky contraction.

Markit says:

Despite the sharp improvement since May, the index was nonetheless indicative of challenging economic conditions across the region.

Both manufacturing output and service sector activity continued to fall according to the latest data as the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic again weighed on wider economic activity. Country level data for June showed that all countries enjoyed their best Composite PMI readings since February.

Of note, growth was seen in France, which was the best-performing country overall. Spain moved close to stabilisation, but activity continued to fall at solid rates in Italy and Germany. Ireland was the worst-performing nation.

Here’s more detail:

With Wall Street closed for the Independence Day holiday, European stock markets are rather subdued.

  • FTSE 100: down 10 points or 0.17% at 6229
  • German DAX: up 23 points or 0.2% at 12,631
  • French CAC: flat at 5,048

China's stock market hits five-year high

The Chinese stock market has closed at its highest level in five years, as the jump in services sector growth cheers investors.

The CSI 300 index of China’s top companies jumped 2% today to close at 4419 points, its highest closing level since June 2015.

With Australia up 0.4% today, and South Korea gaining 0.7%, stocks across the Asia-Pacific hit a four-month high.

Australia’s service sector returned to growth last month after its Covid-19 slump.

Companies reported that new business volumes returned to growth, as firms reopened and individuals resumed consumption. This lifted business confidence, although (as in China) firms kept cutting jobs.

This lifted the Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s Business Activity Index from 26.9 in May to 53.1 in June -- showing a steady return growth after a shocking plunge.

China’s overall recovery is becoming more balanced and broader based as life slowly returns to normal, says Reuters, adding:

The Caixin survey showed a sub-index for new business received by Chinese services firms rose to 57.3 from 55.8 in May, with the rate of growth accelerating to the fastest since August 2010.

New export business also expanded for the first time since January on firmer foreign demand, in contrast to overseas orders for manufactured goods, which continued to contract as many of China’s trading partners remained in lockdowns.

China Services PMI: What the experts say

Economist and investors are cautiously welcoming the jump in China’s services PMI in June:

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote Bank

On the data deck, the Caixin services PMI pointed at the fastest expansion in a decade as the emerging market giant accelerated the pace of economic activity to tackle the Covid-led slowdown.The second wave worries didn’t have a material impact on PMI figures, which was very good news for investors.

Nomura’s analyst team:

“This suggests the services sector’s recovery is gaining traction.

However, we caution that the recovery momentum could lose some steam in coming months.”

Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank:

The problem with PMIs is that they simply measure changes in activity versus the previous month, so can prove rather volatile when you have the sort of economic dislocation we’ve seen since the shutdowns.

Updated

Growth across the wider Chinese economy has also hit a 10-year high, as new business accelerates.

With service sector firms and manufacturers both reporting growth, the China Composite PMI has hit its highest level since November 2010.

Importantly, though, that doesn’t mean companies have recovered to their pre-crisis levels. Just that, after a severe economic shock, things are improving.

Introduction: China's service sector bounces back

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Hopes that the global economy is recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic have been bolstered this morning, with Chinese services companies reporting their strongest growth in a decade.

The latest Chinese services PMI, released overnight, found a surge in activity in June.

Firms across China reported that business activity, and new orders, both rose at a faster pace than May. Backlogs of work increased for the first time since February, driving business confidence to a three-year high.

This lifted the Chinese Services PMI to 58.4, from 55 in May, a level consistent with very strong growth. That’s the strongest month since August 2010.

Dr. Wang Zhe, senior economist at data firm Caixin, said domestic demand, and orders from overseas, have both recovered as China emerged from Covid-19 restrictions.

Despite flare-ups in some places, the epidemic remained largely under control in China. Work resumption in the services sector accelerated. The business activity index hit a 10-year high, and the gauge for total new business also reached its highest level since August 2010, indicating a good recovery of services activities.

Despite uncertainties over the pandemic overseas, the measure for new export business returned to expansionary territory, meaning that external demand has not been a drag for the first time in five months....

The gauge for business expectations rose further into expansionary territory for the fourth consecutive month, suggesting that service providers remained highly optimistic about their business outlook over the next 12 months, as the epidemic was under control, restrictions were lifted, and the economy recovered at a faster pace.

Disappointingly, though, services firms did continue to cut staff. But even so, the data has lifted shares in Asia, and European markets are expected to open a little higher.

With America reporting that 4.8m jobs were restored in June, hopes are building that the world economy has strengthened. However, the recent alarming surge in Covid-19 cases in many US states is threatening to undermine this recovery.

The agenda

  • 9am BST: Eurozone services PMI for June: expected to rise to 47.3 from 30.5
  • 9.30am BST: UK services PMI for June: expected to rise from 29 to 47
  • 2pm BST: Brazil services PMI for June
 

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