Nick Fletcher 

FTSE falters ahead of Greek meetings, as Standard Chartered slips back

Investors cautious on conflicting reports about deal to resolve Greek financial problems
  
  

Standard Chartered hit by sell note.
Standard Chartered hit by sell note. Photograph: EDGAR SU/REUTERS

Leading shares slipped back on a combination of concerns, from Greece to Ukraine to China.

Among the fallers was Standard Chartered, down 24p to 915.4p in belated reaction to a hefty sell note from Deutsche Bank. Analyst Jason Napier said:

Standard Chartered’s disappointing share performance in 2014 - down 33% in dollars - took consensus forward PE multiples to decade-lows and bank market cap to just $35bn....A tremendous shift in capital allocation is required to get the return on total equity back to 15%, a level below which we don’t believe the Standard Chartered business model is sustainable. We think a $5.25bn capital increase is needed to accelerate change, re-provision the loan book, and provide the raw material for faster balance sheet growth. We have cut earnings per share and dividend per share estimates and with 10% downside to our 860p target price reduce to sell from hold.

Key upside risks are much stronger-than-forecast capital formation, a bid for Standard Chartered or significant improvement in emerging market growth and commodity price prospects.

Overall the FTSE 100 finished 8.03 points lower at 6829.12 - having fallen as low as 6788 - amid conflicting reports about whether or not Greece and the rest of the eurozone were edging closer to a deal to solve its financial problems, with key meetings taking place over the next few days.

Worries about the continuing conflict in Ukraine also added to the uncertainty, while a weaker than expected Chinese inflation figure pushed mining shares lower, with Anglo American down 35p at £11.49 and Rio Tinto 102.5p to 2992.5p.

Ahead of the outcome of the latest Premier League football rights, Sky added 2p to 954p and BT rose 7.2p to 443.8p.

ITV climbed 1.4p to 227.5p as Barclays raised its recommendation from equal weight to overweight and its price target from 225p to 250p:

In our view, ITV has been mostly an earnings per share momentum stock for the past three years, performing strongly in 2012 and 2013 and performing more poorly in 2014. Consequently, we feel the stock needs decent earnings per share upgrades to outperform. With 2015 advertising starting better than expected and with media buyers now calling for ITV Family NAR to be up 5%-6% in 2015, we think that decent earnings upgrades are likely. We move advertising growth up to 5.0% versus company-compiled consensus at 2.7% and are 6% above Bloomberg consensus for 2015. This is the main reason behind our upgrade to overweight with an increased 250p target (higher forecasts, higher market multiples). The other reasons we overweight ITV are: reasonable valuation, balance sheet opportunity, our preference for cyclicals, optionality on M&A, and optionality on retransmission fees. Risks to our overweight are: (1) impact of UK election on sentiment and advertising in the second half of 2015, and (2) question marks on the free-to-air business model. Based on these two threats, we expect outperformance to be front-end loaded.

Supermarkets were lifted by positive market share figures from Kantar Worldpanel, with Morrisons up 6.1p to 184.1p and Tesco adding 8.45p to 241.85p.

Marks & Spencer rose 23.2p to 498.7p after RBC analysts moved from sector perform to outperform, while Next was 170p better at £72.50 after the same bank raised its rating for underpeform to sector perform. But Sports Direct slipped 11p to 690p as RBC cut to underperform from sector perform. The bank said:

[For Marks] we expect e-commerce trends to improve, we see potential for multi-year gross margin gains and as it remains the default play on an improving UK consumer, at an undemanding valuation.

We also upgrade Next as although we remain concerned about the sustainability of its Directory margin, we expect online sales trends to remain robust driven by brand and range extensions, competitive pricing and further improvements to service options.

We also downgrade Sports Direct from sector perform to underperform. Sports Direct is well managed but the pace of international and online growth has moderated and the shares have reached 19 times calendar 2015 PE for low double-digit profit growth.

  • Babcock International ended 26p better at £10.54 after a well received trading update. It repeated its expectations for the full year although it warned the drop in crude prices could effect its oil and gas businesses next year. Jefferies said:
  • The interim management statement reassures on many fronts but we downgrade 2016 earnings per share by 6% to accommodate recent foreign exchange movements and more conservative profit assumptions regarding [recent acquisition] Avincis’ Energy activities [given the weak oil price]. Debate over the latter will rage until the March investor day and perhaps beyond, but the other 95% of Babcock is performing well.

    Peel Hunt said:

    The order book provides excellent visibility while the pipeline should drive strong organic growth over the medium term. In our opinion this is not reflected in the current valuation multiples. However, ongoing concerns over the potential impact from the fall in the oil price on Avincis’s Energy Support Services business and the political risk to Her Majesty’s Naval Base Clyde if the SNP forms part of a new UK government after the general election may constrain the shares in the short term.

    Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling added 23p to £11.02 in the wake of better than expected results from the US drinks group itself.

    But Royal Mail ended down 22.3p at 432.2p after a downgrade from overweight to neutral by JP Morgan Cazenove.

    Elsewhere Drax jumped 22.7p to 412.6p on takeover speculation while 888 rose 26.5p or 18% to 171.5p after it confirmed reports of a bid approach from William Hill, down 12.2p at 377.4p.

     

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