Markets dont seem too excited by the passing of the withdrawal agreement bill in parliament this afternoon. It’s still looking pretty tame as we head into the holiday period.

MPs voted 358 to 234 to pass the bill, but with Boris Johnson having secured such a large majority last week, this was largely priced in by investors.

The pound is up just 0.2% against the US dollar.

Stocks are also subdued in the final week before Christmas, with the FTSE 100 still trading relatively flat.

You can get your Brexit withdrawal deal fill over at our politics live blog:

Can Andrew Bailey be the “people’s governor”?

That is the challenge put forward by Dame Helena Morrissey, who was in the running to replace Mark Carney.

Morrissey, the former head of personal investing at Legal & General Investment Management told the Mail on Sunday that she was still in the running back for the BoE’s top job in November, but didn’t seem to be holding her breath.

She told Financial News (£) today:

Bailey’s appointment does feel a bit out of sync with the zeitgeist - I felt we needed a ‘people’s governor’, someone who would prioritise building the public’s trust in the financial system right across the country.

I would also have welcomed someone who’s an experienced market practitioner (not necessarily me) who might be more likely to spot the next potential crisis.

Morrissey, who has nine children, is one of the City’s most high-profile Brexiters.

But now that she is done with the job interview circuit, she may have more time to focus on her burgeoning Instagram hobby:

Turning back to the man of the hour, Andrew Bailey is continuing to draw criticism from some heavy hitters across Westminster and the City.

Financial News (£) has spoken to former business secretary and LibDem leader Sir Vince Cable and prominent anti-Brexit campaign Gina Miller who have not been too glowing in their reactions.

Cable said Bailey was:

A very unimaginative appointment, someone who won’t ruffle feathers in government or the banking sector. We can all go to sleep until the next financial crisis.

Miller, who also is a founder of investment firm SCM Direct, did not pull any punches:

It is truly astonishing that an individual who has shown an arrogant contempt for the best interests of the British public, costing them billions of pounds of losses through his complete failure to supervise and enforce the UK financial services industry, should be rewarded with such an important position.

Bailey has failed to enforce Mifid II fee transparency, failed to prevent the failure of a series of peer-to-peer lending platforms, failed to properly supervise Woodford, failed to ensure open-ended property funds were fit for purpose, and failed to arrest a growing greenwashing scandal across the investment industry.

What did the British public do to deserve this?

Data flash: The US economy grew by 2.1% in the third quarter, compared to a year earlier, the US Commerce Department has confirmed.

That’s according to the final estimate GDP growth, which confirms previous estimates and is in line with economist expectations.

However, consumer spending was stronger than previously reported, which helped offset downward revisions to investment in housebuilding. Imports were also higher than previously estimates.

And for those of you trying to spend your cash during the Christmas rush, HSBC customers are reporting problems with their mobile and online banking.

The BBC is reporting that it’s the second glitch to hit the bank’s digital service in 24 hours, with the first hitting customers after 8pm Thursday but was fixed three hours later.

HSBC was apparently having a bit of Christmas fun with it (though customers probably weren’t as jolly):

The second fault hit customers overnight and is still affecting some customers today.

The central bank news just keeps coming.

The Bank of England has now released its quarterly bulletin which gives a slightly worrying view of consumer spending.

The fact that households have been so willing to part with their cash has been a bright spot for the UK economy despite continued uncertainty.

But the survey found that the net balance of households that expect to spend more over the next 12 months fell to zero, with most expecting Brexit to increase the price of goods.

In the 2019 H2 survey, households were asked why they expected to change their spending over the next 12 months due to Brexit.

Most households expecting to change spending due to the referendum result reported that higher prices were the key reason, with fewer households citing changes in income/income expectations or changes in job security.

If you really want to get stuck-in, the full 16-page speech can be found here:

For anyone worried that a near-term rate cut might overstimulate the economy, or get us closer to the point where lowering rates becomes futile, Haskel has a simple solution: just reverse the car and raise ‘em:

The insurance might be quite cheap. Even if it turns out that the policy-maker has overstated the probability of ending up at the ELB [effective lower bound interest rate*] , we can undo the stimulus by raising interest rates, given the much larger policy space we have available in terms of tighter policy.

In this sense, I believe the costs of reversing policy would be quite low as expectations are unlikely to be de-anchored from looser monetary policy after so many years of ‘lower for longer’.

*Because we all need a reminder sometimes, the effective lower bound rate is the level at which interest rate cuts end up having no tangible effect on the economy.

The borrowing figures will reduce the government’s room for manoeuvre, said the Resolution Foundation.

If the Office for Budget Responsibility, the independent body tasked with monitoring the government’s finances, cuts its forecats that would leave even less headroom for borrowing for Sajid Javid, the chancellor.

Economists’ reactions to the voluminous data from earlier have come in.

GDP figures were revised upwards (to the slight surprise of economists). In the third quarter growth rose by 0.4%, but it may be more timing distortion than signal for the future, said Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to the EY Item Club.

The third quarter may well have overstated the economy’s underlying strength, just as the second quarter overstated its weakness and the first quarter its strength. Economic activity has been distorted by a number of factors during 2019, most notably stockbuilding developments influenced by Brexit deadlines.

Certainly, the economy was faltering at the end of the third quarter. GDP dipped 0.1% month-on-month in September after falling 0.2% in August. Third quarter GDP growth of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter was therefore highly dependent on strong activity in July when growth was 0.3% month-on-month.

Has Christmas come early, asks Andrew Wishart, a UK economist at Capital Economics?

The festive cheer will probably be short-lived seeing as [the upgrade] was driven by a larger boost to net trade than in the previous figures which we know has already started to unwind. The underlying picture is still that there is very little momentum in the economy.

A controversy has erupted in the world of central banking animals, amid conflicting reports about new Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey’s experiences (or not) with bears.

The Telegraph reports that Bailey has an ursine affinity. Bailey is “so cool under pressure he once reportedly faced down a marauding grizzly bear with his American wife at their US holiday home”, the paper said.

However, the Daily Mirror says it was Bailey’s wife, Cheryl, who faced down the visitor to their holiday home in Idaho, citing an FT report from 2016.

Mr Bailey gave “moral telephonic support” to Cheryl, because he was trapped in London trying to halt the collapse of Northern Rock.

On another occasion, the FT reported in 2016, a bear had sunk its teeth into their sofa and was trying to drag it out of the window.

Central bank watchers are familiar with zoo visits. “Hawks” want interest rates to soar to keep inflation down and stop debt building up; “doves” think rates should flutter lower, keeping the supply of money going so that growth doesn’t stall.

The European Central Bank’s new boss Christine Lagarde introduced the “wise owl” to the economics world earlier this month.

Annual accounts have dropped for the Daily Mail’s publisher, DMGT. It has had a good year on the stock market, and the rewards for executives appear to be in the same vein, reports the Guardian’s Mark Sweney.

Here are the shares over the past year:

But some people clearly think it won’t last. The hedge fund owned by billionaire investor George Soros has a short position betting shares will fall.

Former Scottish National Party MP George Kerevan gives a flavour of some of the criticisms that Bailey will face.

Kerevan briefly considered trying to lead the Treasury select committee, before losing his seat, and has worked with various groups of people critical of the Financial Conduct Authority’s approach to regulating big banks such as Royal Bank of Scotland.

And a reminder that the top regulatory jobs can be... complicated:

Right, back to some reaction to the Bailey appointment. The City appears to have welcomed a familiar face moving from the Financial Conduct Authority’s Stratford offices to the Bank’s Threadneedle Street.

Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, a consultancy, said:

He has never served on the [interest rate-setting] monetary policy committee so we don’t know whether he’s a dove, a hawk or somewhere in between (perhaps an “owl” as new ECB President Christine Lagarde describes herself!).

Perhaps the biggest challenge will be dealing with the next severe downturn, which will probably take pace during his eight-year term. That may require some innovative thinking given that the Bank is unlikely to enter it with much interest rate ammunition and as the current arsenal of unconventional policies are not considered very effective.

Catherine McGuinness, the policy chair at the City of London Corporation, which lobbies for the financial services sector (as well as running things like housing and police) said:

Mark Carney has done a fantastic job since becoming governor in 2013, helping to raise the global profile of the Bank’s work, and often leading the way on challenges and opportunities of the future such as climate change and fintech.

Andrew is well placed to continue this important work to ensure that the Bank plays a leading role on the international stage.

The investment industry highlights his familiarity with the City. Chris Cummings, chief executive of the Investment Association, said:

Andrew’s extensive experience and able leadership, demonstrated at the FCA, will enable him to successfully guide the Bank during this critical period for the UK as we prepare to leave the EU.

In a bumper data release, we also have the UK’s public sector borrowing figures, the government’s spending deficit.

The government borrowed £5.6bn in November, according to the Office for National Statistics – below the £6.3bn expected by economists but the highest November borrowing figure in two years.

Borrowing in the current financial year-to-date, from April 2019 to November, was £50.9bn, £5.1bn more than in the same period last year; this is the highest April-to-November borrowing for two years.

Some more reaction (from before and after the announcement became official).

Nick Macpherson, the former permanent secretary to the Treasury, was effusive in his praise.

John McDonnell, still Labour’s shadow chancellor for the time being, gives something of a hint that he might have made a different choice had the general election result been different.

Angus Armstrong, the economist who leads research body Rebuild Macroeconomics, said:

One of the first priorities for Bailey – and indeed for outgoing governor Mark Carney – will be to shore up the Bank of England’s security, after a hugely embarrassing breach that potentially allowed hedge funds to hear market-moving information before anyone else.

This report from the Guardian’s Graeme Wearden highlights the sensitivity of the governor’s role, with traders around the world hanging off every word, and even what they don’t say.

See how that can move markets here:

Some more facts from the Treasury’s announcement:

• Andrew Bailey will be the 121st governor in the Bank’s 325-year history and the ninth to be appointed since the Bank’s nationalisation in 1946.
• Mr Bailey has been appointed for an eight-year term and will receive a salary of £495,000. (Being the most important economist in Britain has its perks.)
• To ensure continuity, an interim chief executive of the FCA will be appointed well ahead of Mr Bailey’s departure to manage the organisation until a permanent successor is chosen by HM Treasury.

Outgoing Bank of England governor Mark Carney said:

I am delighted to welcome Andrew Bailey back to the Bank as its next Governor.

An extraordinary public servant, Andrew brings unparalleled experience, built over three decades of dedicated service across all policy areas of the Bank, and most recently as CEO of the FCA.

Andrew is widely and deeply respected for his leadership managing the financial crisis, developing the new regulatory frameworks, and supporting financial innovation to better serve UK households and businesses.

Over the years, I benefited greatly from his support and wise counsel. I wish Andrew and the Bank continued success in their work to serve the people of the United Kingdom by maintaining monetary and financial stability.

Gluttons for punishment can read the Bank of England’s full press release here.

And the chancellor has tweeted it:

Why has the process taken so long?

It was a carefully considered process, Javid says. I would have made an appointment earlier but felt it was a decision to be made by a new government, Javid says.

He wants an orderly transition, and that is why he has asked Mark Carney to stay on as governor until 15 March.

And that is the end of a very brief press conference. No questions about the operational difficulties facing the Bank.

Now a brief Q&A.

Was Brexit a factor?

What mattered most was the experience that they bring to the table, Javid says.

Do you want Bailey to challenge you, publish challenging forecasts, and look at the Bank’s remit?

I want him to uphold vigorously the independence of the institution, Javid says. He wants the BoE to make any decisions necessary without government intervetion.

Javid praises Bailey’s work during the financial crisis.

Bailey took over the organisation at a difficult time, and he transformed it, Javid says.

He praises his commitment to diversity.

The breadth and depth of his experience is unmatched.

With the Bank of England announcement due shortly, a few thoughts from around the City on what Andrew Bailey would mean.

Although he has a firm monetary policy grounding, Bailey has been intimately involved with regulating the financial sector during the financial crisis and throughout the last decade.

Although that closeness could have big implications. Will the Financial Conduct Authority’s investigations of the Bank of England’s breach, revealed yesterday, be affected? FCA employees will be investigating an organisation run by their former boss.

An interesting note from long-serving Conservative backbencher John Redwood: a call for the promotion of growth from the Bank. Whether the rest of his colleagues agree remains to be seen, but coupled with a new mood of government spending it could herald a new economic era for the UK.

Markets have opened. You might be able to guess that it’s the last Friday before Christmas.

The FTSE 100 is down by 0.05%. NMC Health is the biggest faller, down by 2.9% (a bit more on that to come).

Across Europe Italy is the biggest mover – up by only 0.6%.

Stop the press: Relx, the FTSE-100 listed group formerly known as Reed Elsevier, has offloaded 85-year old Farmers Weekly, ending a decade-long process of magazine sales.

Relx, which has sold all but one of its portfolio of 300 business-to-business magazines in 65 deals over the last decade, said the sale symbolically represents the last step in a transformation from a print to a digital business.

Farmers Weekly is in good health with a circulation of nearly 42,000, with more than 26,000 of those subscribers, and it employs 54 staff. It started in 1934.

Estates Gazette is Relx’s last remaining title, and there are no plans to sell it.

British consumer confidence increased in December, according to GfK’s measure, with the pollsters saying it points to a “clear sense of change”.

A seven-point increase in the reading for the coming year is the strongest increase since the summer of 2016, the time of the EU referendum, GfK reported. The polling of British consumers took place before the general election on 12 December, so may be further impacted next month by the clear result.

That helped their overall index to a three-point rise, although still at a low, negative level of 11 points – only three points higher than last month and the same time last year.

Joe Staton, client strategy director at GfK, said:

There’s a clear sense of a change in consumer sentiment this month. The picture for the year to come is much stronger with a two-point improvement in how consumers view their personal financial prospects and a very healthy seven-point jump on how they see the wider economy next year.

We haven’t seen such a robust increase in confidence about our economic future since the summer of 2016. Despite official warning signs about the flatlining of Britain’s economy, we know that record high employment and below target levels of inflation are helping to boost consumers’ expectations for the year ahead.

You might be familiar with the name Andrew Bailey if you pay close attention to your cash: his signature used to adorn bank notes that were printed when he was chief cashier at the Bank of England. Now his name is expected to adorn the door to the governor’s office.

The Financial Times (£) on Thursday night reported that a decision to appoint Bailey had been made, and is expected to be made this morning.

Bailey would be seen as a safe choice for chancellor Sajid Javid. The potential governor is a creature of the Bank, having served as a private secretary to a previous governor and taking a key role in the bank bailouts of 2008. He is perhaps better known now across the City for helming the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) since July 2016.

However, he is not without his critics. During his time the FCA has been hit by intense criticism of its handling of multiple financial scandals, including the liquidity issues surrounding former star fund manager Neil Woodford and the mini-bond misselling scandal at London Capital & Finance.

The new govenror will have a bulging in-tray – likely taking over on the day that the UK leaves the EU, 1 February.

The FT reported that Bailey’s Brexit views were a “key factor”, citing people close to the process. Minouche Shafik, the former Bank deputy governor who now heads the London School of Economics, was reportedly ruled out because of her criticism of Brexit.

If anyone needed any reminder of the possible challenges facing a new governor, the last 24 hours have given a timely nudge.

First off, the Bank’s chief operating officer is facing calls to resign after a damaging lapse in security that allowed hedge funds to pay for early access to current governor Mark Carney’s words at Bank of England press conferences. The eight seconds those investors may have gained from a high-speed audio-only connection could have given a vital edge to investors.

And secondly, new economic data published overnight suggests that uncertainty over the economy was still a factor at least up until the election. Data from GfK, which do not cover the post-election period, suggest that consumer confidence increased slightly, but still at the low levels seen over the last three years. More detail on this to come – although the real story will be what impact Boris Johnson’s majority will have.

The agenda

• 9:30am GMT: UK GDP growth rate final reading (third quarter)
• 9:30am GMT: UK current account (third quarter)
• 9:30am GMT: UK business investment (third quarter)
• 9:30am GMT: UK public sector net borrowing (November)
• 11am GMT: Speech by Bank of England MPC member Jonathan Haskel
• 12pm GMT: Bank of England quarterly bulletin
• 1:30pm GMT: US GDP growth rate final reading (third quarter)
• 1:30pm GMT: US personal consumption expenditure index (November)