Julia Kollewe 

European shares power ahead as market rally gathers strength – as it happened

Wall Street opens higher as world stocks hit one-week highs; crude oil and gold prices riseHMV collapses into administration
  
  

Share price information is displayed on screens at the London Stock Exchange offices after reopening following the Christmas holiday.
Share price information is displayed on screens at the London Stock Exchange offices after reopening following the Christmas holiday. Photograph: Jack Taylor/Getty Images

Closing summary

Global stock markets are rallying, following heavy losses in Europe yesterday.

  • UK’s FTSE 100 up 156 points, or 2.37%, at 6740.82
  • Dow Jones up 0.54% at 23,265.77
  • S&P 500 up 0.35% at 2497.59
  • Nasdaq up 0.2% at 6592.812
  • Germany’s Dax up 1.71% at 10,558.96
  • France’s CAC up 1.86% at 4684.23

Oil prices rose more than $1 a barrel first thing this morning, but have given up most of their gains. Brent crude is 0.19% ahead at $52.26 a barrel after rising over 3% earlier. US light crude is only 0.4% ahead at $45.01 a barrel, after gaining 3.6% earlier. Oil prices hit their lowest level in almost 18 months this week and are down more than 20% for the year so far.

The dollar remains weak after a drop in US consumer confidence. Both the euro and the pound are up about 0.3% against the greenback.

Gold, a popular safe-haven asset in volatile times, has hit a six-month high of $1.282 an ounce.

The main UK business story is that HMV is about to appoint administrators for the second time in six years, putting more than 2,200 jobs at risk.

With this, we are closing the business live blog for the day. Good-bye – we’ll be back next week.

Updated

The Dow Jones and Nasdaq have given up some of their gains and are just 0.2% ahead now.

Royal Mail has apologised for putting the wrong picture on a stamp designed to commemorate the allied D-day landings in France. Instead of showing the June 1944 landings, it showed US troops wading ashore in Dutch New Guinea, now Indonesia, in May 1944.

When Royal Mail put a preview of the “Best of British” stamp on its Twitter feed, historians noticed the error.

You can read our full story here.

Wall Street has opened higher, as expected.

  • Dow Jones up 0.61% to 23,280.16
  • S&P 500 up 0.57% to 2503.07
  • Nasdaq up 0.55% to 6615.90

Inflation in Germany slowed sharply in December, according to data from the country’s Federal Statistics Office released today. The annual inflation rate fell to 1.7% from 2.2% in November, due to a slowdown in energy price rises. The European Central Bank targets inflation of close to but below 2% for the eurozone as a whole.

However, this year has been a bad year for many assets. World stocks have lost almost 12% so far this year and oil prices have shed 30%.

Chris Bailey, a strategist at brokerage Raymond James, said the weaker dollar boded well for non-US assets.

He told Reuters:

My feeling is.... if we get the transmission mechanism of a lower dollar, stocks outside the US are set up for a good 2019. Once people get their heads around the fact the US is not gong to have yet another double-digit return year in 2019, you can look elsewhere.

World stocks hit one-week highs

Today’s stock market rally is gathering pace, with world stocks hitting a one-week-high after three weeks of losses. The MSCI all-country equity index climbed 0.6%, for a weekly gain of almost 2%.

The FTSE 100 in London is now up nearly 150 points on the day, a gain of 2.24%, to 6731.90. The pan-European benchmark index rose nearly 2%, reversing yesterday’s losses.

Wall Street is also expected to open higher again, with futures for the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq pointing to a 0.5% rise.

The dollar remains weak after a drop in US consumer confidence, falling 0.55% against the yen. And gold, seen as a safe-haven asset, has hit a six-month high of $1.282 an ounce.

Updated

2018 has been a turbulent year for stock markets, stoked by the US-Chinese trade war, the Turkish crisis and fears over the world economy and rising US interest rates.

Here’s a round-up of the most-read Guardian Business stories of 2018, starting with a marathon business blog by Graeme Wearden on 6 February, which charted the panic selling that swept through global markets.

Following HMV’s collapse into administration, putting more than 2,200 jobs at risk, there are fears of more job losses at npower, after taff were told the ownership of the big six energy supplier will be transferred to the German energy giant E.ON.

My colleague Adam Vaughan writes:

Questions were raised about the fate of npower and its 6,400 employees in the UK after the recent collapse of the company’s plan to merge with SSE.

It was unclear whether the company would stay with its German parent, Innogy, or switch to another German energy firm, E.ON, which is midway through a complex asset swap with Innogy’s owner RWE.

However, it has emerged that npower will end up at E.ON, which poses a headache for E.ON because it already has a UK business supplying energy to households and businesses under the E.ON brand.

You can read the full story here.

Updated

Lunchtime summary

Time for a lunchtime summary.

  • European stock markets are rallying, boosted by yesterday’s Wall Street bounce, bringing some relief after yesterday’s heavy losses. The FTSE 100 has advanced 117 points to 6701.99, a 1.78% gain; Germany’s Dax is up 1.76% and France’s CAC 1.63%.
  • Oil prices have bounced back but remain close to one-year lows due to oversupply. Brent crude is up 0.29% at $52.31 a barrel while US crude is 1.08% higher at $45.05 a barrel.
  • Sterling has risen against the dollar, by 0.37% to $1.2697, which remains generally weak today. The pound is flat against the euro, at 90.31 pence.
  • Gold is holding near a six-month high, trading at $1.278 an ounce, on continued worries over the slowing global economy and stock market volatility.

Updated

There’s a booming trade in second-hand books, the BBC reports – in particular Ladybird books, periodicals, textbooks and signed copies – thanks to the rise of online used-book sellers.

“In my time the retail of second-hand and vintage books has changed beyond recognition,” says Ms Lee, who has been working for Oxfam for two decades.

“Things like Ladybird books, lovely old-fashioned or collectible children’s books - in the past people weren’t really interested. If they remembered books from their childhood the chances of finding it in a bookshop near them would have been nil.”

But thanks to the arrival of online second-hand book retail, there is now a whole new market for what Ms Lee calls “cheap collectibles”, mid-market books worth more than a couple of pounds but not worth sending to auction. And Oxfam is making the most of it.

Updated

The main M&A deals this year are:

  • Japanese drugmaker Takeda is set to take over Shire in a £46bn deal.
  • GKN was acquired by turnaround firm Melrose for £8.1bn in March. As feared, Melrose didn’t waste any time and announced plans to break up GKN in October.
  • Coca-Cola bought Costa Coffee from Whitbread for £3.9bn in late August.
  • Comcast and Disney battled it out for UK media company Sky, and Comcast was victorious in the end with a £30bn bid.

Madden concludes:

2018 saw some major deals, but now as global stock markets are off their highs, and there are some concerns about global growth, 2019 is likely to start off on a softer note.

The landscape has changed greatly in the past 12 months as political uncertainty in Italy, strained trade relations between the US and China, Brexit, and the odd whisper about a possible rescission in the US, have dampened the previously bullish sentiment. Many deals are paid for with debt, and companies might be cautious about loading up on debt for fear we are heading into economically cooler times.

David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets UK, has cast his eye back over 2018.

2018 saw a lot of volatility in terms of stock market price action. In the first quarter, several of the major indices racked up fresh all-time highs, while many reached multi-year highs. With the exception of the major US indices, stock markets around the world began to retreat in the second half. The outlook for the global economy was looking better in the first half than it is now, and some investors saw the declines in stocks in recent months as an opportunity to buy into the market.

It is not just investors and dealers who are caught up in the bullish sentiment, companies are too, and we are seeing firms snapping up other organisations, or merging with them to form a more powerful company. Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are a way for companies to grow. It can be a way to expand the business, diversify into different areas, obtain new talent, take advantage of synergies, or dispose of assets. The deals can be costly, timely and sometimes subject to approval from local regulators. Some decisions to go down the M&A route can be fruitful, while others can be turn out to be costly mistakes.

RPC says other areas where retailers have recently requested policy changes include:

  • Card processing fees which are an expensive transaction cost absorbed by retailers each year. Limited competition in the card processing industry has contributed to card scheme fees increasing by an estimated £1bn over the last two years. Retailers want to see more assistance in keeping those fees down
  • Ensuring that the costs of the government’s environmental initiatives do not fall unfairly on retailers. Many retailers want to make sure they have the support needed to be able to meet the Government’s targets for ‘plastics-free aisles’ by 2042
  • Reforms to the apprenticeship levy so it gives retailers a better deal. The British Retail Consortium says the retail industry contributes around £160m per annum to the apprenticeship levy, yet many businesses struggle to draw down funds from it due to lengthy approval processes

The law firm notes that the national minimum wage rose in April to £7.83 an hour, and is set to rise almost 5% again in April next year to £8.21 an hour – good news for workers but piling further pressure on retailers.

The number of UK retail businesses entering insolvency has risen by 13% to 1,224 in the year to 30 September, from 1,079 in the previous year, according to law firm RPC’s retail group.

The firm says this demonstrates that “more substantial and urgent public policy measures are needed to assist the sector which is one of the largest employers in the UK”.

Whilst the recent budget provided small retailers with a discount on their business rates which continue to be regarded as a major factor, only around 10% of retailers will benefit. The discounted rate will only reduce the sector’s ratings bill by an average of £180m over each of the next five years – just 0.6% of the £30.2bn raised through business rates in 2017/18.

Updated

Time for another look at the markets. The FTSE 100 index is trading 108 points higher at 6692.85, a gain of 1.65%, as the relief rally continues. Germany’s Dax is 1.68% ahead and France’s CAC has climbed 1.77%.

Oil prices are still up on the day, but have given up some of their earlier gains. Brent crude has risen 73 cents, or 1.4%, to $52.89.

Updated

Consumer group Which? advises HMV customers to spend their gift vouchers ASAP.

Alex Neill, Which? managing director of home products and services, said:

It’s a worrying time for everyone when a company goes into administration but for customers, it’s important to remember that your consumer rights may be affected.

If you have recently bought anything from HMV, you may not be able to claim a refund or exchange the item if the company ceases trading. If you have gift vouchers you should try to spend these in-store as soon as possible.

If you are planning to shop in HMV and intend to buy something worth more than £100, make sure you use a credit card as you’ll be able to make a claim against your credit card company under Section 75 Consumer Credit Act if anything goes wrong.

Back to HMV. Is its collapse into administration a sign of the troubles to come in the retail sector? Richard Lim, chief executive of consultancy Retail Economics, said:

Poor Christmas trading has claimed its first victim as the industry continues to adapt to seismic structural shifts in consumer behaviour, fiercer competitor dynamics and spiralling operating costs.

Set against the backdrop of turbulent political and economic undercurrents, this perfect storm of pressures has intensified into a year of distress for the industry. While it is too early to assess the relative success of Christmas trading, it’s clear that consumer confidence is fragile and shoppers’ propensity to spend is weak.

The fast-paced evolution of consumer preferences has left retailers struggling to adapt business models swiftly enough to meet customer’s heightened expectations. A laser-like focus on strategic transformation will emerge as the overriding priority for many retailers heading into 2019.

UK Finance highlighted a 10.6% year-on-year fall in the overall number of mortgages approved by the main highstreet banks in November (non-seasonally adjusted). Approvals for remortgages slumped 20.3% while approvals for house purchase fell 1.2%. Gross mortgage lending across the residential market fell 2% from a year earlier to £23.1bn.

Updated

Mike Scott, chief property analyst at estate agent Yopa, said:

The housing market remains quite stable as we move into 2019, and unless there is a sudden change in the economic fundamentals we expect next year’s market to continue much as it has done for the past five years, rather than moving into ‘boom or bust’ territory.’

Here is a table with the main data on mortgage lending and the number of mortgages approved in recent years, from UK Finance.

Overall lending to businesses remained subdued last month, according to UK Finance.

Stephen Pegge, managing director of commercial finance at UK Finance, said:

As we approach year end, overall lending to businesses has remained subdued in this period of economic uncertainty, with a slight contraction from last November. However, lending to manufacturing, transport and service industries have all seen strong annual increases.

Business deposits have continued to grow, with transport and personal services in particular showing a large increase, further indicating a cautious approach by businesses to trading conditions.

Most UK economists expect house prices to be flat or rise only slightly next year.

The UK Finance data showed credit card lending picked up in November, although the organisation said this reflected a shift in payment habits rather than higher borrowing.

The £11.3bn of credit card spending was 7.5% higher than November 2017. The outstanding level of credit card borrowing climbed by 5.3% over the past 12 months, while personal borrowing through loans and overdrafts grew by 2.5%.

Leenders said:

Total credit card spending increased in November, while borrowing growth remains constant compared with November last year. The increase in spending, which is largely offset by cardholder repayments, reflects the growing use of credit cards as a preferred form of payment, particularly in travel, as consumers take advantage of stronger customer protection and value-added benefits.

The Bank of England will publish full lending data on 4 January.

Updated

UK mortgage approvals rise year-on-year for first time in 14 months

UK mortgage approvals in November rose year-on-year for the first time since September 2017, although they still fell compared with the previous month, according to industry figures.

UK Finance, which represents nearly 300 lenders, has just released data showing that Britain’s highstreet banks approved 39,403 mortgages for house purchase in November, up 0.2% from a year earlier – the first year-on-year rise in 14 months.

However, the number was still down compared with October when 39,640 mortgages were approved. The housing market has slowed considerably since the Brexit vote in June 2016, and property prices are falling in London and parts of southern England, but are still rising in other parts of the country.

Eric Leenders, UK Finance’s managing director for personal finance, said:

Overall mortgage borrowing across the residential property market remains stable.

Updated

European stock markets are still powering ahead.

  • UK’s FTSE 100 index up 1.45%, or 95 points, at 6680.20
  • Germany’s Dax up 1.5% at 10,536.47
  • France’s CAC up 1.32% at 4659.38
  • Swiss Market Index up 2.09% at 8370.02

ITV reports that HMV, owned by Hilco Capital has confirmed that it has appointed administrators from KPMG following a weak Christmas period.

The company’s 125 stores across the UK will continue to trade while negotiations with suppliers and potential buyers continue – so people will have time to spend their Christmas vouchers.

Paul McGown, executive chairman of HMV and Hilco, said:

During the key Christmas trading period the market for DVD fell by over 30% compared to the previous year and, whilst HMV performed considerably better than that, such a deterioration in a key sector of the market is unsustainable.

HMV has clearly not been insulated from the general malaise of the UK High Street and has suffered the same challenges with Business Rates and other government-centric policies which have led to increased fixed costs in the business.

Business Rates alone represent an annual cost to HMV in excess of £15m. Even an exceptionally well-run and much-loved business such as HMV cannot withstand the tsunami of challenges facing UK retailers over the last 12 months on top of such a dramatic change in consumer behaviour in the entertainment market.

The Daily Telegraph also had the HMV story earlier this morning and says 2,500 jobs at risk.

Updated

Here is our story on HMV – it is on the brink of collapse for the second time in six years, putting 2,200 jobs at risk. The music retailer last week filed a notice of intention to appoint administrators, after holding crunch talks with suppliers in a bid to survive, according to a report by Sky News.

Its latest troubles are a sign of the challenges facing music retailers during a rapidly changing time for the industry. HMV is also suffering from the wider malaise on UK high streets, as shoppers uncertain about the impact of Brexit rein in spending.

Updated

On Twitter, people are talking about spending any HMV vouchers before the company collapses into administration.

There is also a profit warning from Xaar, a Cambridge industrial inkjet technology company, which has driven its shares down more than 15% to 136.94p.

Xaar said that “trading in the three months to December 2018 has continued at levels below our expectation”. It flagged up “declining sales into ceramics and slower than expected uptake of the Xaar 1201 product”.

As a result, the firm expects revenues in the six months to December, its second half, to be only slightly better than the first half and sees revenues for 2018 as a whole at £64m. A worse sales mix will dent profit margins.

Xaar has been cutting jobs and slashed its dividend from 3.4p to 1p after it slumped to a pretax loss of £1.1m, from a profit of £5.5m the year before, in early September.

Updated

HMV on brink of collapse – report

Breaking: HMV, Britain’s biggest highstreet music retailer, is on the brink of collapse (again).

Mark Kleinman at Sky News reports that it is about to fall into administration for the second time in six years. He writes:

Sky News has learnt that HMV Retail filed a notice of intention to appoint administrators last week amid desperate last-ditch talks with suppliers.

Sources said that the chain, which trades from 130 shops and employs about 2200 people, had been in talks in recent days with leading names in the recorded music industry to seek financial support from them.

The disappearance of the last major specialist music retailer on the high street is something the ‎record labels have been keen to avert for years.

HMV, which was then a publicly traded company, fell into administration in January 2013.

Hilco, which this year bought Homebase, purchased the group’s debt and acquired the business in a‎ £50m deal.

Music industry sources said the rise of streaming services had “decimated” HMV’s business and made its future operation unsustainable.

It has been a volatile week for financial markets. Lukman Otunuga, research analyst at forex broker FXTM, says:

Global sentiment repeatedly swung from extremely bearish to bullish this week as investors tussled with concerns over slowing global growth, US-China trade developments, Brexit-related uncertainty and a partial US government shutdown.

Although US stock markets bounced back to life yesterday to end positive and Asian shares traded mostly higher this morning, it is certainly too early for any celebrations. With investor appetite for riskier assets seen diminishing amid the unfavourable market conditions, global equity markets remain vulnerable to downside shocks. The geopolitical risk factors weighing painfully on global sentiment are likely to encourage investors to seek safety in the Japanese yen and gold.


Crude oil prices rise over $1 a barrel

Crude oil prices are also recovering: Brent crude, the global benchmark, has advanced $1.14 to $53.31 a barrel, a gain of 2.19%. US crude is $1.17 higher at $45.78 a barrel, up 2.62%.

Oil prices have see-sawed, hitting their lowest level in more than a year yesterday after their biggest one-day rally in two years.

Ahn Yea-Ha, a commodity analyst at Kiwoom Securities in Seoul, told Reuters:

For the time being, the stock market and the oil market will echo each other. Global economic slowdown worries have been weighing on stock market movements, and oil prices are not free from those concerns.”

The US is the biggest oil producer at the moment, pumping 11.6m barrels a day – more than Saudi Arabia (usually the biggest oil producer) and Russia.

Updated

And we are off. The FTSE 100 has advanced 1.05% to 6653.54, a gain of nearly 70 points. France’s CAC is also up 1% while Germany’s Dax has gained 0.7%. Italy’s FTSE MiB is up 0.9%, Spain’s Ibex has opened 0.5% higher and Portugal’s PSI 20 is 0.7% ahead.

Updated

Shanghai is the world’s worst-performing major stock market this year, according to Bloomberg. The trade war between the US and China that began in June after talks broke down has wiped $2.4 trillion off the Shanghai Composite Index, a fall of nearly 25% and the biggest loss since at least 2002.

Bloomberg says:

Stock declines have shaved $2.4 trillion off China’s market value this year as of Thursday, the biggest on record since Bloomberg started compiling the data in 2002. The closest loss was during the global financial crisis 10 years ago, when the Shanghai gauge plunged 65%. China also ceded its place as the world’s second-biggest stock market to Japan earlier this year.

Updated

US stocks bounceback brings relief

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

A late rally in US stocks has helped some Asian stock markets to make gains and is expected to drive European markets higher this morning.

European shares had a bad day yesterday when traders returned from their Christmas break, with the UK’s FTSE 100 index closing down 1.52% while Germany’s Dax shed 2.37% and France’s CAC fell 0.6%.

On the other side of the Atlantic, after a day of wild swings US stock markets finished in the black: the Dow Jones was up 1.13%, the S&P added 0.85% and the Nasdaq gained 0.38%. However, US shares remain down more than 9% for December.

In these volatile times, gold hit its highest level in more than six months this morning, as concerns over slowing global economic growth and and a partial US government shutdown continue. Spot gold is up 0.5% at $1.281.08.

Most Asian stock markets took their cue from Wall Street: The Shanghai Composite index rose 0.44%, south Korea’s Kospi climbed 0.6% and Australian stocks gained 1.02%. However, Japan’s Nikkei slipped 0.3% after jumping nearly 4% earlier in the day.

The FTSE 100 in London and France’s CAC are both expected to open 1% higher while the Dax in Frankfurt is set to open up 0.7% and Spain’s Ibex 0.8%.

The Agenda

9:30am UK Finance mortgage approvals for November

1:00pm German consumer prices for December

1:30pm US trade for November

Updated

 

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