Closing summary
European stock markets are still trading higher, while Asian shares saw losses overnight, dragged down by trade tensions – in particular Chinese stock markets. Beijing reiterated at a regular news briefing that it would retaliate if the US imposed new tariffs.
A barrage of better-than-expected data showed the UK was in better shape than thought over the summer. GDP growth accelerated to 0.6% in the three months to July from 0.4% in the three months to June, with retail sales and construction strong while industrial production declined. Economists cautiously welcomed the pick-up but voiced some concerns over the outlook once the World Cup and heatwave effects fade and we get closer to Brexit.
With this, we are closing the blog for the day. Thank you for all your comments. We will be back tomorrow.
Sterling has edged higher today following the better-than-expected GDP numbers, although the data were overshadowed by fresh worries over Brexit.
The pound has gained 0.2% to $1.2946 after hitting a session high of $1.2954. Last week it tumbled 0.3% against the dollar, its biggest weekly drop in a month.
Against the euro, sterling is now flat at 89.43 pence.
Debenhams: Will make £33m profit
The struggling department chain Debenhams has issued a statement insisting it won’t go bust - after its share price plummeted 17% this morning, hit by rumours that it was considering mass store closures.
It emerged at the weekend that the firm has called in restructuring specialists KPMG to assess its options, including a company voluntary arrangement that would enable it to shut stores and renegotiate rents. The shares are now down 11% at 11.4p.
The company said it expects to report pretax profits of £33m this year, within the market range of £31m to £36.5m, excluding one-off costs. It said it had strengthened its financial position to ensure “maximum flexibility amidst volatile market trading conditions”. “The early weeks of the new season have shown more positive trends and any sustained upturn would result in a rebound in our profit performance.”
Sergio Bucher, the chief executive, said:
The market environment remains challenging and underlying trends deteriorated through the summer months. Nevertheless the product and format improvements we have tested are gaining traction and we are ready to scale up some of our strategic activity ahead of peak. Having put in place a leaner operational structure and strong leadership team, and taken action to strengthen our financial position, we are well equipped to navigate these market conditions and take advantage of any trading opportunities that emerge.
Here’s a helpful comment from one of our readers on today’s news that the UK economy grew 0.6% between May and July, boosted by the World Cup and the heatwave.
European stocks higher on Italian budget relief
European stock markets are trading higher after their weak start to the week. There is some relief over the Italian government’s budget. Investors are increasingly optimistic that the budget will respect EU fiscal rules – and this is lifting banking stocks across Europe.
Italy’s FTSE MiB has jumped 2.3% and Spain’s Ibex has risen 1.2%.
The FTSE 100 in London is up 0.36%, with Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays and Lloyds Banking Group amid the biggest risers. Germany’s Dax is 0.4% ahead and France’s CAC has gained 0.5%.
Muhammet Mercan, Turkey economist at ING, said:
Strong growth in the first half of this year is attributable to fiscal measures introduced by the government to support private consumption and investment, with increasing capital spending.
Given that increased financial volatility is weighing on sentiment, the likely difficulties in external financing, an ongoing uptrend in inflation and already sharp monetary tightening since early 2018 with likely further steps, a strong underperformance in growth could well be seen in the second half, likely turning to negative on a sequential basis.
Turkish economy slows in Q2
Back to the Turkish economy, whose growth slowed to a 5.2% annualised rate in the second quarter, from 7.4%.
The breakdown shows the agricultural sector shrank 1.5% year-on-year, while industry grew 4.3%, construction expanded 0.8% services powered 8% ahead. The Turkish economy is expected to grow 3.3% this year, according to a Reuters poll, below a 5.5% government target.
Rabobank’s emerging markets foreign exchange strategist Piotr Matys said:
The Turkish economy is widely expected to lose even more momentum in the coming quarters as a result of significant lira depreciation.
The lira has lost two-fifths of its value against the dollar this year, amid concerns that the Turkish central bank lacks independence and a diplomatic row with the US.
The central bank meets on Thursday – investors expect it to raise interest rates but the size of any hike will be crucial. Rates were left on hold at July’s meeting, wrongfooting analysts and investors.
Data last week showed inflation hit 17.9% in August, the highest rate since late 2003.
Updated
Here is our full story:
PricewaterhouseCoopers have sent us their thoughts on UK GDP.
John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC, says:
The UK economy continued to pick up momentum, growing by 0.6% in the three months to July. This was the fastest quarterly growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2016 and supports the decision of the Bank of England to raise interest rates in August.
The hot summer and the World Cup boosted retail spending in June and July, and latest business surveys suggest that positive services sector growth continued in August. But manufacturing output growth has weakened.
Looking ahead, however, the long hot summer could give way to a stormy autumn as Brexit-related uncertainty leads businesses to defer major investment decisions and subdued real wage growth weighs on consumer spending.
UK trade deficit smallest since February
Britain’s trade position also improved in July. The overall trade in goods deficit was the smallest since February, at £9.97bn, according to the ONS.
The gap with the EU narrowed to £7.2bn, the lowest since April 2016, while the deficit with the rest of the world shrank to £2.8bn, the smallest since February. Exports rose 2% in July while imports fell 1%.
The total trade deficit, including services, shrank to just £100m in July from £900m in June – much better than expected.
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Michael Thirkettle, chief executive of construction consulting and design agency McBains, said the bounceback in construction, which was hit hard by the “Beast from the East” during the winter, represented a much-needed boost to confidence in the sector. But he cautioned:
Underlying growth remains fragile however, and the real test will be if this can be sustained in the months to come, given the uncertainty over issues like Brexit that have impacted on UK companies’ commitment to new projects over the last two years.
In particular, separate figures published by the ONS recently show the lowest level of net migration from the EU since 2012, which has again raised concerns as to how construction will cope with a reduction of a skilled labour supply from the EU post-Brexit. If sustained growth is to be realised, then the industry will need the workforce with the right skills, but this is far from clear at present.
Lee Hopley, chief economist at EEF, the manufacturers’ organisation, says:
While not quite in rude health, the economy does look to have been on the up over the summer with consumers spurred on by some good weather and modest increases in real wages. Export demand also looks to have been a bit more supportive, consistent with some of the survey evidence over the summer. It is still unclear that there is enough momentum here to counteract what feels like a rising tide of uncertainty about Brexit and global trade policy concerns.”
#ONS data show UK economy growing 0.6% in three months to July, an improvement that was broadly in line with PMI, which points to slight moderation in growth going forward, but still solid expansion so boding well for Q3 #GDP to at least match the 0.4% increase seen in Q2 pic.twitter.com/GlBxdJzVdW
— Chris Williamson (@WilliamsonChris) September 10, 2018
UK 3m/3m GDP growth at 0.6% vs 0.5% expected. Driven by decent services growth. As expected domestic UK economy continues to recover from Brexit inflation shock. Still a drag from uncertainty but likely some decent Brexit news ahead. Markets have been overdoing the gloom
— Rupert Harrison (@rbrharrison) September 10, 2018
Construction output rose 0.5% in July, the biggest rise since last December, while manufacturing fell 0.2%, worse than expected. This was largely due to a decline in pharmaceuticals, which can be volatile, the ONS cautioned. Overall production, which also includes utilities, mining and quarrying, edged up 0.1%.
Updated
The statistics office’s head of GDP Rob Kent-Smith said:
Growth in the economy picked up in the three months to July. Services grew particularly strongly, with retail sales performing well, boosted by warm weather and the World Cup. The construction sector also bounced back after a weak start to the year.
However, production fell back, with manufacturing again slipping a little while energy generation and supply fell due to reduced demand.
The dominant service sector again led economic growth in the month of July with engineers, accountants and lawyers all enjoying a busy period, backed up by growth in construction, which hit another record high level.
The biggest contributor to growth was the services sector, which expanded 0.6% in the three months to July, while retail trade grew by 2.1%.
The Office for National Statistics highlighted the good weather between May and July, citing Met Office data that this summer was the joint hottest summer in the UK since records began.
Construction output jumped 3.3%, largely driven by repair and maintenance work. The production sector, however, weighed on growth, with a 0.5% decline.
Updated
UK economic growth fastest in nearly a year
The UK figures are out. Britain’s economy grew 0.6% in the three months to July, the fastest pace in almost a year and up from 0.4% in the three months to June. It was boosted by the World Cup and the heatwave, which encouraged many people to go out and spend more at pubs and restaurants.
In July alone, GDP rose 0.3% compared with June.
Updated
Beijing to hit back if US imposes new tariffs
China’s foreign ministry has reiterated that Beijing will respond if the US announces new tariffs on Chinese goods. On Friday, Donald Trump said he was ready to impose duties on pretty much all Chinese imports into the US.
China’s foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told a regular briefing:
If the US said obstinately clings to its course and takes any new tariff measures against China, then the Chinese side will inevitably take countermeasures to resolutely protect our legitimate rights.
The US and China imposed tariffs on $50bn of each other’s goods in early July after trade talks broke down. Trump then threatened tariffs on a further $200bn of Chinese goods, whereupon China unveiled a proposed list of retaliatory tariffs on $60bn of US goods in August.
On Friday, Trump talked about another package of duties on $267bn of goods, escalating the trade war. This would include mobile phones, the biggest US import from China, for the first time. The $200bn list includes a broad range of consumer products such as cameras, luggage and vacuum cleaners, along with meat and fish, many metals and commodities.
The existing and threatened tariffs cover $517bn of Chinese goods – which would exceed last year’s imports of $505bn from China.
Last week, Apple warned that products made in China, including the Apple Watch and Air Pods headphones, would cost more if Trump went ahead with the first tariff package.
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Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Markets.com, has sent us his thoughts on Debenhams:
A CVA is being talked about, but given the weakness in the share price and the recent acquisition of House of Fraser, we must consider the possibility that Mike Ashley’s Sports Direct – which has a near 30% stake in Debenhams - will swoop.
The rationale for combining the two to create the House of Debenhams is compelling enough. As previously noted, combining the two businesses, reducing overheads and at a stroke removing a key leg of competition, seems like the only viable solution for the two ailing department stores. The fact is the market is screaming for restructuring and consolidation looks a sensible route to take given the well documented structural pressures on the sector.
Primark, owned by Associated British Foods, expects to post a 6% rise in sales in the year to 15 September, helped by favourable exchange rates and new store openings. But sales melted away during the summer heatwave in northern Europe, with like-for-like sales down 2%.
In the UK, full-year sales are also expected to be 6% ahead while like-for-like growth is set to be 1.5%. Primark said it had ramped up its share of the clothing market.
Independent retail analyst Nick Bubb says:
Primark is slightly more subdued than the last update in early July, with overall LFL sales 2% down, but ABF call out the outperformance of the core UK operation.
Primark was held back by sales in “Northern Europe”, but the operating profit margin recovered well in the second half. In terms of new store expansion, the much-vaunted US operation continues to edge forward (with 9 stores now open), but the highlight is that the new UK site in the old Birmingham Pavilions centre will, at 160,000 sq ft, become the largest store in the whole Primark estate.
Updated
Aston Martin, the luxury car brand favoured by James Bond, has strengthened its board with several experienced FTSE executives ahead of its planned stock market flotation.
Its board will be chaired by former Royal Bank of Scotland director Penny Hughes. Richard Solomons, who ran InterContinental Hotels until last year, will serve as a senior independent director and chair the audit and risk committee.
Imelda Walsh, the former HR director of Sainsbury’s who chairs the remuneration committee at transport firm FirstGroup; the former Deutsche Bank and Deloitte director Peter Espenhahn; and Lord Carrington, a director of the Arab British Chambers of Commerce, will also join the Aston Martin board as non-executive directors.
The carmaker said it would release further details on the float, such as the indicative price range and the maximum number of shares to be sold, around 20 September.
Updated
Turning to company news, Debenhams shares have plunged 17% this morning, to 10p.
The department store chain called in administrators KPMG over the weekend to assess its options, including a company voluntary arrangement. This – also used by other retailers recently – would allow it to close stores and to renegotiate rents at others.
The Turkish economy is expected to slow further in the second half, as the country battles with the fallout from its currency crisis. The lira has plummeted, partly due to concerns over president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s influence over monetary policy.
Economists say the central bank should raise interest rates to rein in inflation, but Erdoğan has resisted this. The central bank meets on Thursday.
The Turkish GDP figures are out. The economy grew at an annualised rate of 5.2% in the second quarter, down from 7.4% in the first quarter, but in line with economists’ expectations.
*TURKEY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED GDP EXPANDED 0.9% Q/Q IN 2Q
— Dick Darlington (@Darlington_Dick) September 10, 2018
*TURKISH ECONOMY EXPANDED 5.2% IN 2Q ON YEAR
#Turkey #GDP Growth Rate year-on-year at 5.2% https://t.co/M3gO85di6D pic.twitter.com/z4ZBMWa8fz
— Trading Economics (@tEconomics) September 10, 2018
Updated
The dollar is rising again amid mounting trade tensions, and the Swedish krona is also up following yesterday’s election.
The dollar index, which measures the US currency against a basket of six currencies, is 0.13% higher.
The Swedish krona rose 0.6% against the euro following the election. Jon Henley reports from Stockholm:
Sweden faces a protracted period of political uncertainty after an election that left the two main parliamentary blocs tied but well short of a majority, and the far-right Sweden Democrats promising to wield “real influence” in parliament despite making more modest gains than many had predicted.
The populist, anti-immigrant party won 17.6% of the vote, according to preliminary official results – well up on the 12.9% it scored in 2014, but far below the 25%-plus some polls had predicted earlier in the summer. It looked highly likely, however, to play a significant role as kingmaker.
European stock markets have opened slightly lower.
- FTSE 100 in London down 0.1%
- Dax in Frankfurt down 0.09%
- CAC in Paris down 0.05%
- Ibex in Madrid up 0.08%
David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets UK, says in his morning note:
The trade numbers from Beijing are likely to have struck a nerve with Mr Trump, and given that he thinks the US are winning the trade spat on account of the recent weakness in the Chinese stock market, he is likely to stick to his protectionist line. Beijing said they would retaliate should the US impose fresh tariffs, and traders are fearful they might weaken the yuan or target US firms operating in China.
Tim Cook, the CEO of Apple, warned President Trump that if he continues down the route of protectionism, it could hurt the company’s profits. The tech sector has been the standout performer of the US market this year, but it has come under pressure recently on account of the update last week from Washington DC that tighter regulation would be required for the industry, and in particular social media stocks like Facebook and Twitter.
Introduction: Trade war, UK and Turkish GDP in focus
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Tensions between the world’s two biggest economies over trade have deepened further, after China revealed a record trade surplus with the US on Saturday. Customs data showed it jumped to $31.05bn in August from $28.09bn in July, while overall export growth slowed to the slowest pace since March.
Donald Trump is yet to activate the threatened fresh tariffs on $200bn of Chinese goods imported to the US, but on Friday suggested duties on a further $267bn could be imposed. Hours before his threats, China announced measures to support some of the exporters affected by higher duties. Beijing has warned that it will retaliate, but has limited room to do so.
Analysts at JPMorgan said:
The overall sense is that the United States will continue to escalate the pressure until China submits to US demands which does not seem likely any time soon. Overall, the impact of tariffs and high levels of uncertainty will both continue to weigh on markets into the end of the year.
Asian stocks started the week in the red, falling for the eighth trading day in a row. Chinese stocks were among the biggest losers, with the blue-chip CSI 300 index falling 1.2% and Shanghai’s Composite shedding nearly 1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 1.1%.
European shares are set for a mixed open.
A barrage of figures, all out at 9.30am BST, will shed some light on the health of the UK economy: monthly GDP for July, along with trade, manufacturing and industrial production and construction. Tomorrow we’ll get the latest labour market data.
It is also a big data week for the US. And on Thursday, the Bank of England, European Central Bank and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey hold their monthly meetings.
The agenda:
- 8am BST Turkey GDP for Q2
- 9.30am BST UK GDP for July
- 9.30am BST UK trade for July
- 9.30am BST UK Industrial production for July
- 9.30am BST UK Construction for July
Updated