Time for a recap.
The European Central Bank has hiked its growth forecasts, but admitted that inflation still won’t be on target by 2020.
In its final meeting of 2017, the eurozone’s central bank voted to leave interest rates on hold - and repeated its commitment to running an asset-purchase stimulus programme until at least next September.
Playing his cards close to his chest, president Mario Draghi batted away questions on whether the stimulus programme would continue at a slower rate beyond September 2018, or come to an abrupt halt.
Draghi also admitted that the ECB has incurred losses on corporate bonds issued by troubled retailer Steinhoff. Those bonds have plunged in value since the company announced accounting problems, and the departure of its CEO.
Reuters has a good take:
“Running such big corporate programmes it is not unusual that losses may be happening,” he told a news conference after the bank left benchmark interest rates and the terms of the asset purchase scheme unchanged.
The ECB’s rules only allow it to own debt as part of its asset-buying programme, which means it might have to sell its Steinhoff holding if the bonds were converted to equity.
Draghi said the ECB had stopped buying the bonds as soon as the firm’s troubles emerged, and its losses from the purchases had been “by and large exaggerated by a factor of 10.”
He said policymakers were discussing the issue but “I cannot elaborate a lot about what we are going to do next.”
Draghi forced to defend ECB's buying of Steinhoff bonds.
— Karin Richards (@Richards_Karin) December 14, 2017
"Will draw lessons from Steinhoff experience."
"As soon as we got news of Steinhoff scandal we stopped buying the bond."
"Losses reported in the media exaggerated by a factor of 10."
~via fxstreet
That’s probably all for today. Thanks for reading and commenting. GW
The press conference is over -- several minutes early. As suspected at the start, Draghi is ready for Christmas.
Back on the ECB’s stimulus programme....
Draghi says the ECB hasn’t discussed whether it should bring its bond-buying programme to an abrupt stop next September, or simply continue at a slower rate.
Draghi walks back his sudden stop denial he mentioned last press conf, now says they have not discussed QE after September 2018, meaning it may very well be cut to zero
— Axel Merk (@AxelMerk) December 14, 2017
Q: What the risks to your inflation forecasts - to the downside, or the upside?
The risk of deflation has disappeared, Draghi replies, but he won’t go much further than that.
Draghi refused to provide an explicit balance of risks to the inflation outlook. The last time the ECB had one ("broadly balanced") was August 2014.
— Frederik Ducrozet (@fwred) December 14, 2017
German journo trying to get Draghi to admit that inflation risks are to the upside.
— Angel Talavera (@atalaveraEcon) December 14, 2017
What happens next will not surprise you. : )
Q: Do you think Greece will need a fourth bailout when its existing programme expires?
That’s an issue for the Greek government, Draghi replies.
ECB's Draghi: Up to Greek Government to decide on aid program.
— DailyFX Team Live (@DailyFXTeam) December 14, 2017
Draghi is also asked about the legal proceedings against Greece’s former chief statistician earlier.
The independence of statistical bodies and their people is essential, Draghi declares passionately, as their data is vital for designing monetary policy
It is wrong to undermine this credibility, Draghi insists, adding that one must also respect the independence of the judiciary.
Updated
Q: Germany hasn’t had a government for three months, and it might take several more months. Will this impact the push for banking union?
Draghi replies that the ECB is ‘entirely in the hands of the citizens of Europe’. Thanks to democracy, it is the people who will decide how and when the eurozone is strengthened.
"The citizens of this part of the world take their time to form governments...," says Mario Draghi when asked about Germany's government formation.
— Anneken Tappe (@AnnekenTappe) December 14, 2017
#Draghi: "it's not in our hands", it's up to the citizens to decide what to do with the euro area. grazie!
— Maxime Sbaihi (@MxSba) December 14, 2017
Q: Are you worried about bubbles in the financial markets, and how your exit from your stimulus programme could effect them?
We always discuss financial stability issues, Draghi replies firmly.
The ECB does see some localised causes for concern, but no ‘systemically significant’ threats.
Crucially, leverage doesn’t seem to be going up - a key issue when examining whether asset valuations have hit dangerous levels, he adds.
*DRAGHI: ECB DOESN'T SEE SYSTEMIC RISKS TO FINANCIAL STABILITY
— lemasabachthani (@lemasabachthani) December 14, 2017
Q: Mr Draghi, do you expect to raise interest rates before your term ends in autumn 2019?
Draghi says he can’t say what he expects...but any rate rise would be good news as it would mean that inflation was on a ‘self-sustained’ recovery.
Updated
On the Steinhoff bond issue, Mario Draghi also insisted that the ECB’s losses were being exaggerated significantly.
he said "ten fold" so safe to go with €40 million instead of €400 million?
— Lorcan Roche Kelly (@LorcanRK) December 14, 2017
Q: Some European companies think they are disadvantaged by the new US tax reforms - do you have any concerns?
Draghi says the ECB hasn’t looked at this issue yet, but it will give it some consideration.
Draghi: We've taken a loss on our Steinhoff bonds
Draghi is then asked whether the ECB expects to suffer significant losses over its holdings in bonds issued by Steinhoff, the retail giant that is embroiled in a deepening financial scandal.
Draghi confirms that “the losses are there” within the ECB’s bond-buying programme, although they’ve not been realised yet.
So who will pay for these losses?
These bonds are only a small fraction of the profit we achieved last year, Draghi replies, suggesting the ECB can absorb the hit.
But he also points out that the ECB’s bond-buying programme is one of its policy tools to achieve its mandate.
The goal is not to achieve profits or avoid losses.
Draghi also argues that the ECB should be applauded for being so open about which bonds it has bought under its stimulus programme.
Other central banks didn’t disclose what they held, so journalists don’t know what losses they made.
Q: Some of your colleagues have said they expect the asset-purchase programme to end in September. Do you?
Draghi rebuts this notion, saying that “vast majority of the governing council” want to retain the open-ended nature of the asset-purchase programme.
Q: Are you worried about negative effects on the eurozone economy from last night’s increase in US interest rates, which further widens the gap between American and European borrowing costs?
The different decisions taken here and on the other side of the ocean reflect the different stages that our respective economies have reached, says Draghi firmly.
Europe is actually growing faster than the US right now, but on issues such as wage growth it is lagging behind.
And no, the ECB doesn’t see any negative signs yet.
Q: Are you confident that you will achieve your inflation targets?
Draghi says he’s more confident than a few months ago, thanks to the “continuing improvement” in the labour market.
Q: Are you reviewing the asset-purchase programme each month, or are its parameters fixed in stone until September?
And has there been any discussion on the open-ended design of the APP?
That’s only one question, Draghi smiles. And the answer is that the current parameters were agreed at our last meeting (so it’s too early to start changing them).
Q: Did you consider dropping the link between the asset purchase scheme and inflation in your guidance?
No, say Draghi.
Q: You’re forecasting 1.7% inflation in 2020 - are you sticking to your previous view that this doesn’t count as “close to, but below, 2%”?
Draghi tried to bat this away, saying the important issue is how close we are to a sustained return of inflation to our target levels.
Onto questions....
Q: When will we know when the ECB will decide how its asset purchase scheme will operate beyond September? [currently, it is due to run at €30bn/month until at least September]
Draghi reads out his opening statement again (in which the ECB pledges to continue or even boost the programme if needed). There is no change to our existing stance, he says.
Q: Are you worried that you are short of ammunication to cope with an economic downturn?
We haven’t discussed that, says Draghi. Frankly, it seems a remote possibility, even less than six months or a year ago.
Draghi ends his statement by urging eurozone governments to “substantially” step up their structural reforms.
On its new forecasts, the ECB sees inflation at 1.7% in 2020. In other words it does not rise to its ‘below, but close to 2%, target’. Indicates an accommodative stance is still required. #ECB
— Philip Shaw (@philipshaw8) December 14, 2017
We also have new inflation forecasts...and the ECB has raised its forecast for 2018, from 1.2% to 1.4%.
But it still doesn’t see consumer price inflation hitting its target of just below 2% by 2020. That explains why it is promising to keep interest rates rates low for some time.
#ECB SEES 2017 INFLATION AT 1.5% VS 1.5% - BBG
— Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud) December 14, 2017
*ECB SEES 2018 INFLATION AT 1.4% VS 1.2%
*ECB SEES 2019 INFLATION AT 1.5% VS 1.5%
*ECB SEES 2020 INFLATION AT 1.7%
ECB hikes growth forecasts as economy strengthens
The ECB has “substantially” upgraded its growth forecasts compared to September’s forecasts, says Mario Draghi.
The new forecasts are:
- 2.4% growth in 2017 [up from 2.2%, I think]
- 2.3% growth in 2018 [up from 1.8%]
- 1.9% growth in 2019 [up from 1.7%]
- 1.7% growth in 2020
Euro rises as ECB's Draghi confirms that growth projections have been revised up. pic.twitter.com/uylZqZg4vP
— Jon Sindreu (@jonsindreu) December 14, 2017
Draghi says the eurozone still needs “favourable” financing conditions, even though the growth outlook has improved significantly recently.
#Draghi says #ECB has seen a "significant improvement in the growth outlook" since last time.
— Maxime Sbaihi (@MxSba) December 14, 2017
He says inflation will converge with the ECB’s target in time, though underlying inflation pressures have not yet shown a convincing upturn.
Mario Draghi sets the tone for today’s press conference by arriving a couple of minutes late.
Looking cheerful, the European Central Bank president wishes the assembled journalists a “Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year”. Clearly he’s already thinking about 2018....
He’s now reading out the statement released earlier, confirming that the ECB has left interest rates on hold today, and will leave them at current levels for an “extended period of time”.
Watch the ECB press conference here.
Mario Draghi’s press conference is about to start in Frankfurt. It’s also being streamed live here:
Watch out for paper aeroplanes flying across the ECB press conference room when Mario Draghi’s press conference begins.....
As my colleague @stehsatz notes, this #ECB meeting has the feeling of the last class before the school holidays start: none of the pupils really pays attention and even the teacher can't wait for it to be over
— Alessandro Speciale (@aspeciale) December 14, 2017
ECB unchanged. I wouldn't be surprised if this is one of the shorter press conferences. Not to say there aren't issues to discuss, but the policy path is pretty clear.
— Todd Buell (@ToddBuell) December 14, 2017
🇪🇺#EURUSD barely moved after #ECB announcement. At the press conference, we will look for, whether the ECB & #Draghi are going further down the road shifting to a more holistic view of the #economy and #inflation pic.twitter.com/aqPXZOeyFt
— Danske Bank Research (@Danske_Research) December 14, 2017
European Central Bank leaves rates on hold
Over in Frankfurt, the ECB has voted to leave interest rates across the eurozone at their current record lows.
That means the headline cost of borrowing remains at zero, while banks will be charged a negative interest rate for leaving deposits with the central bank.
The ECB also confirmed that it plans to reduce its monthly bond-buying programme from €60bn to €30bn next month (a decision announce in late October). But it is also promising to increase the programme again if the economy weakens:
Here’s the statement (which doesn’t include any significant changes)
At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively.
The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.
Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, the Governing Council confirms that from January 2018 it intends to continue to make net asset purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP), at a monthly pace of €30 billion, until the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim. If the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, the Governing Council stands ready to increase the APP in terms of size and/or duration.
Press release: Monetary policy decisions https://t.co/aZrLuuyhWa
— European Central Bank (@ecb) December 14, 2017
Updated
Bank of England: What the experts say
The Bank of England’s interest rate decision hasn’t caused many ructions in the City.
Traders hoping for some pre-Christmas crackers from the BoE are disappointed; today’s minutes are pretty sober, with policymakers predicting that future interest rate rises will be gradual and limited.
Ben Brettell, senior economist at Hargreaves Lansdown, says:
After the excitement of last month’s interest rate rise it was back to business as usual for the Bank of England today, with a fully-expected unanimous no change decision.
The minutes were also fairly dull, with little having changed in the Committee’s view since the November Inflation Report. Brexit is highlighted as the most significant influence on the economic outlook, with the minutes noting the trade-off between setting interest rates to control inflation and setting them to provide support to jobs and growth.
As this Brexit-related uncertainty is almost certainly here to stay, I expect the Bank to proceed cautiously from here.
Kallum Pickering of Berenberg Bank reckons that the BoE will sit on its hands for another six months.
Following the first rate hike in a decade just last month, we did not expect another policy change today at the BoE’s December Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. Instead, we were mainly looking for clues in the forward guidance for when the BoE would hike next. Unfortunately, the MPC did not offer much. By voting unanimously in favour of keeping rates on hold today while stating in its guidance that, ‘further modest increases in Bank Rate would be warranted over the next few years, in order to return inflation sustainably to the target’, the MPC signalled that while it plans to tighten monetary policy further, it is not yet ready to begin the process of preparing markets for the next hike just yet.
This sits well with our call that the next hike will not come until the second quarter of 2018, some six months away. Expect stronger guidance on the path of rate hikes at the February 2018 Inflation Report when the BoE will also updates its economic forecasts. In addition, the committee stated that, with respect to last month’s 25bps rate hike, that ‘it was too early to gauge fully the effect that this tightening was having on the economy’ - expect a detailed analysis in the February report.
Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Asset Management, adds:
“It came as no surprise that the Monetary Policy Committee left interest rates unchanged at 0.5%. At a 9 – 0 vote, the committee has been more aligned than it has been for some time.
The economy remains fragile and even though progress is being made in the Brexit negotiations the eventual outcome is still very uncertain; businesses and individuals will remain wary and conscious of what they are spending.
Disney’s Bob Iger has been talking about the Fox deal:
Asked whether @21CF CEO James Murdoch will be joining Disney, Bob Iger says: "James and I will be talking over the next number of months. He's going to be integral to the integration process. And he and I will be discussing whether there's a role for him or not at our company."
— Callum Jones (@CallumIJones) December 14, 2017
The FT’s Lionel Barber tweets:
Fox-Mouse deal is a brilliant two-fer for Rupert Murdoch: he gets billions from sale and settles dynastic succession problem #Disney
— Lionel Barber (@lionelbarber) December 14, 2017
Bloomberg’s Tom Keane hopes that one of Fox’s most successful cartoons will keep running:
.@tomkeene on Disney buying Fox assets to @FerroTV: I'm wondering what's going to happen to @TheSimpsons franchise.. Why do you think I became who I am?.. Inspired by Homer, it's poetry. It's like American Shakespeare. pic.twitter.com/YkKhw7pJL2
— BSurveillance (@bsurveillance) December 14, 2017
Speaking of the Simpsons....
Disney officially buys Fox....and another Simpsons joke comes to life: pic.twitter.com/FshXPmXnrT
— Rob Hart (@RobHartWBBM) December 14, 2017
Disney to buy 21st Century Fox assets in $66bn deal
Breaking news: Rupert Murdoch’s 21st Century Fox has agreed to sell its entertainment assets to Disney in a $66bn (£49bn) deal that transforms his media empire by offloading a 39% stake in Sky.
My colleague Mark Sweney explains:
The takeover involves the 86-year-old tycoon and his family taking a 4.25% stake in Disney with assets including the 20th Century Fox film studio, the controlling stake in Britain’s biggest pay-TV broadcaster and a number of cable channels going in the other direction.
Murdoch will retain control of the profitable, and controversial, Fox News channel.
The deal will not, for now, impact the proposed takeover by 21st Century Fox of the 61% of Sky it does not own. The Competition and Markets Authority will continue to investigate the deal as a Murdoch-brokered takeover, pending Fox’s Sky stake officially changing hands.
Here’s a photo of Disney’s chairman Bob Iger and Rupert Murdoch celebrating sealing the deal.
Bank of England notes Brexit progress
On Brexit, the Bank of England says there has been “progress” in negotiations between the UK and Brussels.
This has helped to push the pound up in recent weeks, the monetary policy committee believe.
In today’s minutes, they say:
Developments regarding the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union – and in particular the reaction of households, businesses and asset prices to them – remain the most significant influence on, and source of uncertainty about, the economic outlook.
The Committee noted the progress in the Article 50 negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union.
BoE blames weak pound for inflation sike
The Bank of England has flagged up that Britain’s inflation rate hit 3.1% last month - meaning it has failed to meet its goal of keeping the CPI close to 2%.
The BoE pins the blame on the slump in sterling after the EU referendum in June 2016, saying:
It remains the case that inflation has been pushed above the target by the boost to import prices that resulted from the past depreciation of sterling. The MPC judges that inflation is likely to be close to its peak, and will decline towards the 2% target in the medium term.
Governor Mark Carney will expand on this issue in an open letter to chancellor Philip Hammond, which will be published in February.
The Bank of England says that recent UK macroeconomic data has been “mixed”, and it fears that growth may have slowed in the last quarter of 2017.
It says:
The recent news in the macroeconomic data has been mixed and relatively limited. Global growth has remained strong. Domestically, some activity indicators suggest GDP growth in Q4 might be slightly softer than in Q3.
The measures announced in the Autumn Budget will lessen the drag on aggregate demand stemming from fiscal consolidation, relative to previous plans. The labour market remains tight, and surveys suggest this will continue.
[Reminder: The UK economy grew by 0.4% in the third quarter of this year]
Updated
The Bank of England is also maintaining its current quantitative easing stimulus programme, which has bought £435bn of government debt and £10bn of corporate bonds.
The interest rate decision is unanimous, with every member of the Monetary Policy Committee voting to leave borrowing costs unchanged.
*BANK OF ENGLAND KEEPS KEY INTEREST RATE AT 0.5%; VOTE 9-0
— Michael Hewson 🇬🇧 (@mhewson_CMC) December 14, 2017
Bank of England interest rate decision
Breaking: The Bank of England has voted to leave UK interest rates at 0.5%.
More to follow
All eyes are turning to the Bank of England, as it prepares to release its interest rate decision at noon.
With rates highly likely to remain on hold, traders will be speed-reading the minutes of today’s meeting for hints about potential policy changes in 2018.
As Bloomberg puts it:
The Bank of England will fall into a central banking holding pattern on Thursday after November saw the first interest-rate hike in a decade.
With no policy move expected by economists, the spotlight will be on any comment on the market pricing for two more rate increases over the next three years. Governor Mark Carney and most fellow policy makers haven’t disputed that outlook, which would lift the benchmark to 1 percent from 0.5 percent.
Heads Up: GBP Bank of England Bank Rate (DEC 14) due at
— DailyFX Team Live (@DailyFXTeam) December 14, 2017
12:00:00 GMT (15min)
Expected: 0.50%
Previous: 0.50%
It really is a busy day for central bankers.
Turkey’s central bank has just raised borrowing costs by 50 basis points (0.5%), to an eye-watering 12.75%.
And yet, the Turkish lira has dropped in value. Clearly traders had expected a chunkier rate rise to tackle Turkey’s inflation problem (which hit 13% in November).
Turkey’s Central Bank raises late liquidity window rate by 0.50 basis points to 12.75 percent, keeps other rates on hold https://t.co/kgSjfEYUYg pic.twitter.com/HfiNQhtRQ8
— Hürriyet Daily News (@HDNER) December 14, 2017
Last month, the Bank of England was split over whether to raise interest rates.
Seven policymakers voted to hike to 0.5%, but two - both deputy governors - wanted to leave rates on hold at just 0.25%.
Having been outvoted, Sir Jon Cunliffe and Sir Dave Ramsden now need to decide whether to join the rest of the flock, or push for a rate cut!
It's the doves versus the hawks as the Bank of England decides on interest rates https://t.co/3F5VcwRfXf pic.twitter.com/JqcFHf2REk
— Bloomberg (@business) December 14, 2017
Greece hit by general strike
A general strike has paralysed Greece as anger grows over government attempts to crack down on the ability of unionists to press ahead with industrial action.
Helena Smith reports from Athens.
Anti-austerity protests nationwide will cap a general strike that has brought much of the country to a standstill. The 24-hour lockdown follows creditor-dictated reforms aimed at reversing what is widely seen as the hallowed right to call strike action.
Unions representing workers in both the public and private sector are up in arms vowing to fight “to the end” to protect rights won, they say, with blood and sweat.
“It is a right first won a hundred years ago and we are going to do everything we can to defend it,” Grigoris Kalomoiris, chief policy maker at the union of public sector employees, ADEDY, told the Guardian.
“The government will have to withdraw its promise to lenders,” he said of the international bodies behind three successive bailouts of debt-stricken Greece.
The measure is among an array of reforms Athens’ leftist-led coalition has agreed to implement to expedite a third review that, if concluded, could see Greece exiting international supervision and returning to capital markets.
Addressing protestors this morning, community party chief Dimitris Koutsoumbas said:
“the government is continuing the misery, it is continuing the dirty work against the Greek people.”
The 24-hour walk-out has not only closed all state services but disrupted public transport and flights in and out of the country.
Earlier this week, unionists angrily targeted Greece’s pre-eminent capitalist symbol: the headquarters of the Hellenic Federation of Industrialists claiming the ground was being prepared for a new round of assaults against wages, contracts and collective labour agreements “in order to increase the profits and privileges of industrial circles.”
In a carefully planned raid, workers affiliated with the communist labour force, Pame, threw red paint at the neo-classical building housing the federation in the heart of Athens before daubing its façade with the slogan: “get your hands off the right to strike” and “751 euro the minimum wage.”
The pound is up a little against the US dollar this morning, at $1.344, as traders await the Bank of England’s decision at midday.
Alexandra Russell-Oliver of currency firm Caxton says:
Markets expect the BoE to keep interest rates on hold after November’s hike and to maintain a cautious pace going forward. No additional hikes are expected before the latter part of 2018.
This means traders will be watching today’s statements for any guidance that might shift forward rate hike expectations; if such hints are provided, the pound may strengthen. Otherwise, the meeting may weigh on the pound with little set to renew sterling demand and given the risk of some traders’ expectations being disappointed.
She adds that Brexit developments could also shunt the pound today.
Indeed, sterling just had a little wobble after rumours of an important development in parliament; it recovered after House of Commons speaker ruled that Brexit secretary David Davis was not in contempt of parliament over his handling of the government’s impact statements:
UK retail sales: What the experts say:
The 1.6% year-on-year jump in UK retail sales last month is encouraging, says Lisa Hooker, consumer markets leader at PwC.
But she warns that the cold snap could hurt shops:
“After a disappointing October, it’s good to see retail sales picking up again in November. It was a month of two halves, with a slow start followed by sales ramping up in the final few weeks as retailers kicked off their Black Friday and Christmas promotional activity in earnest.
“Given the continued resilience of consumer sentiment, we’re optimistic that Christmas shopping sales in December will hold up. However, one immediate risk is the weather - snow and freezing conditions dissuaded many shoppers from hitting the high street over the past week, and also delayed the deliveries of some online orders.
Richard Lim, chief executive of consultancy firm Retail Economics, suggests that some people got their Christmas shopping done early (more than I’ve managed, frankly):
He says:
“These figures confirm that online won the Black Friday battle. Online sales growth dwarfed that of in-store as shoppers took advantage of Black Friday discounts, particularly in electricals.
“However, some retailers will be concerned that the Black Friday boost has come at the expense of traditional Christmas trading. Many consumers are likely to have pulled forward their seasonal purchases to make their budgets stretch further this Christmas.
However, several City economists say we should treat these retail sales figures cautiously. They suspect the data is being skewed by Black Friday bargain-hunting .
Here’s Philip Shaw of Investec:
UK Nov retail sales up by 1.1% on the month. In fact, three of the last four Nov numbers have risen in excess of 1%. Looks like, as yet, the ONS is not able to adjust properly for the seasonal effects of ‘Black Friday’.
— Philip Shaw (@philipshaw8) December 14, 2017
And Sam Tombs of Pantheon:
The UK official retail sales data are failing to adjust fully for the new seasonal pattern generated by Black Friday. SA sales above 12m centered average in November 14, 15 & 16, and now it seems in 17 too. Strength likely will come at the expense of weakness in Dec. pic.twitter.com/E9FerhAsWr
— Samuel Tombs (@samueltombs) December 14, 2017
James Smith of ING agrees:
At 1.2% (excluding fuel), UK retail sales grew at the fastest monthly pace since April as Black Friday saw another surge in sales of household and electrical goods.
That said, it’s worth treating these numbers with some caution. Black Friday is a relatively new and ever-changing beast, which makes it a nightmare for statisticians to seasonally adjust.
UK retail sales beat forecasts thanks to Black Friday
Breaking: UK retail sales were much stronger than expected last month, suggesting Black Friday was a success.
Retail sales volumes in November were 1.6% higher than a year ago, up from a flat performance in October.
Customers spend 4.7% more in the shops and online than in November 2016, according to the Office for National Statistics.
On a monthly basis, sales volumes were 1.1% higher than in October, including a 2.9% jump at household goods stores as shoppers snapped up electrical items.
City economists had predicted that takings would be up last month, but not this strongly.
Rhian Murphy, ONS Senior Statistician says:
“Underlying retail sales growth remained reasonably strong in the last few months. Household goods stores had a good November, with a number of businesses saying that Black Friday promotions boosted sales.”
The report also shows that inflation was rife:
Total average store prices increased by 3.1% in November 2017 when compared with the same period last year, with price increases across all store types, in particular food stores.
Economist are impressed by this month’s eurozone PMI reports.
Danske Bank’s Aila Mihr says the eurozone is growing strongly.
🇪🇺Seems like a never ending story as #eurozone #PMIs rise further in December driven by rising new orders and business expeectations. Composite PMI now consistent with GDP growth of 0.8% q/q in Q4 17. More good news for #Draghi ahead of #ECB meeting later today. pic.twitter.com/w03P5a7HSX
— Aila Mihr (@aila_mihr) December 14, 2017
Here’s Howard Archer of the EY Item Club:
#Eurozone appears to be ending 2017 with substantial momentum as flash December #PMI shows #services & #manufacturing output growing at fastest rate since Feb 2011. Manufacturing PMI at record high of 60.6 with output index at 212-month high. Services activity at 80-month high
— Howard Archer (@HowardArcherUK) December 14, 2017
Dutch investor and blogger Jeroen Blokland says German factories are on a roll:
#EUROBOOM intensifies! #Germany's Manufacturing #PMI rises to the highest level ... ever! pic.twitter.com/NeDoraGYch
— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) December 14, 2017
Updated
Eurozone economy ends 2017 on a high
Boom! Eurozone companies are growing at the fastest rate in almost seven years, according to data firm Markit.
Factories are benefitting from strong order growth, with export orders growing at a near record pace. Firms also reported that they are taking on more staff, helping to tackle Europe’s unemployment problems.
This drove the Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index up to 58.0 this month, an 82-month high, signalling that business activity continues to strengthen. Any reading over 50 shows growth.
France and Germany led the way, with both countries experiencing the strongest private sector growth since 2011 -- the early days of the eurozone debt crisis.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, says the eurozone is ending 2017 on a high.
“The eurozone economy is picking up further momentum as the year comes to a close, ending its best quarter since the start of 2011. The PMI is signalling an impressive 0.8% GDP increase in the fourth quarter, with accelerating growth seen in both Germany and France, where fourth quarter growth rates of 1.0% and 0.7-0.8% are indicated respectively.
“France has been the big surprise this year, rapidly pulling out of its malaise to help shift the eurozone expansion into a higher gear.
“The eurozone upturn is being led by a booming manufacturing sector, with a record PMI seen in December, but stronger domestic demand is also helping drive faster service sector growth.
Flash #PMI for #Germany at 6½ year high led by record (over 2 decades) #manufacturing PMI. Q4 GDP growth of 1.0% signalled https://t.co/3ghUSloKfg pic.twitter.com/24bRTd15CT
— Chris Williamson (@WilliamsonChris) December 14, 2017
Back in Zurich, Switzerland’s top central banker insists that the SNB should maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy.
SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan says:
“Our expansionary policy remains appropriate in order to underpin the recovery and thereby ensure price stability, while taking due account of economic developments.”
Over in the City, shares in Sports Direct have slumped by 9% this morning.
The retailer, which is ambitiously trying to become the “Selfridges of sport”, reported that pre-tax profits slumped by 67% in the first half of the financial year.
Revenues at its UK stores fell by 1% - the company blamed “reduced online promotional activity and store closures as part of the continued elevation of the portfolio”.
Underlying profits actually jumped by 22%, and founder Mike Ashley insists that his upmarket push is paying off:
“Our high street elevation strategy is currently delivering spectacular trading performance within our flagship stores. We intend to open between 10 and 20 new flagship stores next year.
Take note, FX traders. The SNB is also promising to “remain active” in the foreign exchange market to prevent the Swiss franc becoming too strong.
It adds:
Since the last monetary policy assessment, the Swiss franc has weakened further against the euro and, more recently, has also depreciated against the US dollar. The overvaluation has thus continued to decrease, yet the franc remains highly valued.
SNB maintains negative interest rates
Newsflash: The Swiss National Bank has left Switzerland’s interest rates unchanged at their current record low of minus 0.75%.
*SNB MAINTAINS DEPOSIT RATE AT -0.75%
— WorldFirst (@World_First) December 14, 2017
Those negative rates are meant to prevent the swiss franc strengthening too much against other currencies.
Bloomberg’s Maxime Sbaihi says Mario Draghi has three tasks today, and they all involve some nimble verbal footwork:
It's #ECB day! #Draghi's 3 communication challenges today:
— Maxime Sbaihi (@MxSba) December 14, 2017
Acknowledge a better growth environment, but stay cautious on inflation
Confirm QE reduction in 3 weeks, but keep main scale-back details secret
Reassert the forward guidance(s), but recognize it's not carved in stone pic.twitter.com/G8tSW0tYms
China follows the Fed by raising interest rates
China’s central bank is also joining the party.
The Beijing central bank has decided to raise borrowing costs, following America’s rate hike last night. It looks like another attempt to combat reckless lending and defuse credit risks without destabilising the Chinese economy.
The FT’s Alice Woodhouse has the details:
The People’s Bank of China has raised the seven-day reverse repurchase rate to 2.5 per cent while that for the 28-day reverse repurchase rate was increased to 2.8 per cent.
The agenda: It's Bank of England and ECB Day!
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the financial markets, the world economy, the eurozone and business.
‘Tiz the season to be jolly interested in central bankers!
Today the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank will vying for attention, as they deliver their final monetary policy decisions before Christmas.
After the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates last night, investors will want to hear what Mark Carney, Mario Draghi and Thomas Jordan say about the economic situation.
Having raised borrowing costs last month, the Bank of England is highly unlikely to hike again today. With employment growth tailing off, and real wages lagging inflation, the Bank will surely leave interest rates at 05%
Instead, traders will scrutinise the minutes of this week’s meeting for hints of action in 2018, and the BoE’s views on Brexit.
Jasper Lawler of London Capital Group says:
A holding tone is most likely from Mark Carney & Co. The recent Brexit deal, six-year high level of inflation and the uptick in wages are unlikely to waver the BoE, who will be looking to analyse the impact of the first-rate hike in a decade, with no intention of further hikes until late next year, at the earliest.
Over in Frankfurt, Mario Draghi should be able to look back on a good year when he holds his final governing council meeting, followed by a press conference.
We could get more hints about how the ECB will handle its bond-buying stimulus programme next year (it’s currently scheduled to run until September 2018).
But the press pack may have to work hard to persuade Draghi to produce any festive treats, as Craig Erlam of OANDA explains:
With the economic recovery gathering momentum, Draghi is likely to be pushed on this and may offer small clues on the next steps, for example the timing of the first rate hike and how the central bank will approach raising rates and reducing its balance sheet.
I don’t think we should expect too much though as Draghi detests being perceived to have committed to anything.
Also coming up today...
In the City, retail chain Sports Direct, online grocer Ocado, outsourcer Capita and business supplies firm Bunzl are all reporting results.
On the economic front, the Office for National Statistics will publish UK retail sales figures for November,
Royal Bank of Canada’s analysts expect “some rebound in sales volumes”, following a weak report in October.
Data firm Markit will releases its estimate of how eurozone companies are faring this month.
Plus, Rupert Murdoch is expected to announce a $60bn (£45bn) deal to sell assets in 21stCentury Fox, including a 39% stake in Sky and a Hollywood studio, to rival Disney.
My colleague Mark Sweney has the details:
The deal, which will reportedly be announced before the New York stock exchange opens on Thursday, or around midday UK time, marks a turning point in an empire building career that started in the 1950s and is expected to lead to a split in the Murdoch family dynasty.
Rupert’s son James Murdoch, the Fox chief executive, will leave the company, either to join Disney in a senior role or set up his own venture, according to the Financial Times
Here’s the agenda
- 8.30am GMT: Swiss National Bank interest rate decision
- 9am GMT: Eurozone ‘flash’ PMI reports for December
- 9.30am GMT: UK retail sales for November
- 12pm GMT: Bank of England interest rate decision
- 12.45pm GMT: ECB interest rate decision
- 1.30pm GMT: Mario Draghi’s press conference
Updated