European markets close higher
After recent declines, it was a slightly rosier picture for stock markets today, helped by some positive results from US businesses Wal-Mart and Cisco and some relatively positive economic news. But worries about the Republicans’ US tax reforms mean investors remain cautious. David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said:
Stocks markets in Europe are higher today as the bargain hunters move in. For now the selling pressure has cooled, but traders are still cautious after the market endured several days of selling in a row. One positive day won’t erase the memory of the declines that we saw recently. As we approach the end of the year, we could see further selling pressure as investors look to square up their position before the year ends.
The final scores in Europe showed:
- The FTSE 100 finished up 14.33 points or 0.19% at 7386.94
- Germany’s Dax rose 0.55% to 13,047.22
- France’s Cac closed 0.66% higher at 5336.39
- Italy’s FTSE MIB added 0.22% to 22,206.60
- Spain’s Ibex ended up 0.75% at 10,088.7
- But in Greece, the Athens market fell 2.43% to 701.36
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently up 197 points or 0.85%.
On that note, it’s time to close for the day. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back tomorrow.
Coinciding with the Bank of England forum in Liverpool, governor Mark Carney has told the Liverpool Echo that interest rates could rise a couple of times in the next few years. he told the paper:
We’ll see how the economy evolves. If it evolves broadly in line with our projections we would probably raise interest rates a couple of times over the next few years.
But there’s some pretty big forces, some pretty big decisions still to be taken with respect to Brexit by the UK Government and the Europeans and all of those things can affect the path (of the economy).
The full story is here.
One eminent Twitter user whose every tweet seems to cause headlines is Lloyd Blankfein, and his latest comments are about Brexit. Jill Treanor writes:
The boss of Goldman Sachs has suggested a second EU referendum to confirm there is a consensus in the UK on the “monumental and irreversible” Brexit decision.
Lloyd Blankfein, in his latest intervention via Twitter on Brexit, said there was “lots of handwringing” from chief executives about Brexit and the “tough and risky road ahead”.
“Reluctant to say, but many wish for a confirming vote on a decision so monumental and irreversible. So much at stake, why not make sure consensus still there?”
The full story is here:
Markets are heading higher after recent declines, helped by positive results from a couple of US corporations and some better than expected data. Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, said:
European and US markets are following the lead of their Asian counterparts, with yesterday’s widespread losses being left behind for a more positive outlook today. The final remnants of the third quarter earnings season have helped US indices along, with a strong showing from Cisco and Wal-mart providing a boost as we leave behind a quarter which saw significant outperformance bred largely from low expectations.
The outperformance of Wal-Mart is particularly welcome, with rising sales helping the World’s biggest retailer to gain over 8%, boosting the retail sector ahead of the crucial festive period. The retail sector boost was felt on both sides of the Atlantic, with the October UK retail sales figure outperforming across the board, helped by a historically low pound. However, while we saw retail sales beat expectations, the fact that the year-on-year figure remains in negative growth will not be lost to economists, with the economy continuing to flounder amid an uncertain economic outlook.
Investors are also cautious about the Republican’s proposed US tax reforms, and whether they will be passed by lawmakers or not.
Some people didn't want to know there were Brexit risks - Carney
Carney is asked about being criticised for commenting on Brexit by both sides of the polictical spectrum.
He says, we have to look straight through that. The only thing political for us is if we try to anticipate a political reaction. We have a responsibility under law to identify major risks to UK financial system and the broader economy.
In advance of the referendum and today we see some of the most important risks relate to Brexit so when we testify to Parliament and when we sit here...we view that there are risks and there are big risks and we have to disclose those under law, then we have to say what we are doing to reduce those risks and again be honest and open, and say if there are some risks we can address you should know about them and hold others to account for addressing them.
He is asked, did the bank do a good enough job in explaining what it was worried about?
He says, we were under a statutory responsibility to identify risks. If there was a vote to leave, we said the exchange rate would go down - you can judge whether it did. We said there would be pressure on UK financial institutions. We let them put collateral with us so they could borrow almost unlimited amounts with us, we co-ordinated with other central banks, so in the morning after the referendum...we could stand up and say we’re well prepared, the system’s going to be fine. That is the criteria we should be judged against. Some people during the campaign didn’t want to know there were risks, but there were, we did our best to address them...
There are risks associated with the nature of leaving, it matters what type of deal we get, it matters what the timeline is.
With that the session ends and the governors mingle with the audience.
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On Brexit, Carney adds that the Bank makes a judgement about how businesses and households are acting today, what their expectation is in the end.
Businesses are not investing as much as when financial conditions are good, but they are also not acting as if it’s going to be a very bad outcome from Brexit.
Households are being more affected by the real income squeeze than a concern about future wages under a bad Brexit scenario. What matters is how those expectations change in time, that will happen when there is real information. It could go either way.
Whatever happens we will be nimble enough to bring inflation back to target while supporting the economy, and the core of financial system will be there.
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On Brexit, Sir Jon Cunliffe says the Bank’s job is to ensure monetary stability, make sure whatever happens people don’t have to worry about inflation, and financial stablity, so people don’t have to worry about disruption to the fin system as we saw in the crisis.
We do this by working closely with banks so when things change, there is no disruption to financial services, in terms of things like insurance contracts. We test the banks to make sure they are strong enough to withstand a big event. We are helping government to turn EU law on financial services into UK law.
And we have to stay nimble so we can take action as it becomes clear what sort of Brexit it will be.
Anger about the financial crisis is well justified - BoE's Cunliffe
Sam Woods is asked how the Bank keeps banks safe.
We have all sorts of complicated frameworks but they come down to two things: does the bank have enough of its own money to absorb any losses, and are the people running the bank honest, competent and know what they’re doing. If either question is no, we take action.
It would be easy to crush all risk out of the system, but we don’t want to do that, we want banks to do useful things like lending to consumers and businesses.
Woods is asked about why the money was put into the banks rather than helping the NHS.
He says it’s a fair point. Back in 2008 we put £66bn into two of our banks, same number as all currency in circulation. It was a terrible thing, and a lot of work we;e done is to make the system stronger so that next time we have more options and not just taxpayer writing a cheque.
Sir Jon Cunliffe adds that the money was put in not to save the bankers but to save the economy from the bankers. The anger [about the crisis] is well justified.
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Productivity main reason wages are growing less quickly - BoE's Broadbent
Ben Broadbent is asked to explain why interest rates rose at the most recent meeting, in two and a half minutes.
He emphasises the importance of stable inflation, saying volatile inflation is not good for economy, and it makes it difficult for businesses to plan.
We vary the interest rate to ensure inflation is stable. Inflation can be too low as well as too high. After the financial crisis, the danger was it was too low, interest rates were cutt to ensure that didn’t happen.
After the referendum, the value of the currency fell, all stuff we buy from abroad went up in price and pushed up the rate of inflation.
Although interest rates are at historic lows, the MPC did decide to put them up at last meeting. It makes borrowing a bit more expensive, adds a little bit to savings, helps to control inflation.
On wages he said: Wages are not going up as rapidly as they used to before the crisis. The problem we have in the economy is productivity, how much more productive we get over time. That is fundamentally why wages are growing less quickly.
On whether interest rates are effective, he said the policy has worked pretty well.
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Wall Street opens higher
After a couple of days of decline, US markets have opened in positive territory after strong earnings from Cisco and Wal-Mart.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 130 points or 0.57% while the S&P 500 opened 0.39% higher and Nasdaq Composite 0.55% better.
US industrial output better than expected
Away from the Bank, some more US data.
Industrial production rose by more than expected in October, up 0.9% compared to a 0.4% rise in September, as output rebounded after the effects of the recent hurricanes. Analysts had been expecting a 0.5% increase last month.
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You can also watch #FutureForumBoE live on our Facebook page: https://t.co/YfEefmZY0a pic.twitter.com/HZDKwNYZBc
— Bank of England (@bankofengland) November 16, 2017
Talking about the difficulties of communicating, Carney says the Bank’s charter in 1694 begins with a 700 word sentence, which no one would do now. Not clear and open transparent communication.
Carney moves onto the economy, and says the recovery since the financial crash has been slower than the Great Depression, real incomes have fallen. But more recently the UK and local economy has picked up.
Carney says they will discuss what causes changes in the economy, what effects they have and what role the Bank has (the team has been around schools this morning talking about this.)
He says people think economists are perceived as being terrible about explaining the economy in an accessible way, and that is what they are now trying to do.
Mark Carney is introducing the session, talking about Liverpool and his favourite football team (Everton) and favourite band (the Lightening Seeds) and dropping the occasional groan-inducing song title into his comments.
Here are the Bank’s governors waiting to answer questions:
The Bank of England’s Future Forum in Liverpool is set to begin shortly, details here and follow it live here.
The Bank describes it thus: “We will discuss what we have been doing to make the economy and our work more accessible to all. We will showcase initiatives like our new education programme, our revamped major publications and our new website. For this session we will partner with Economy and Rethinking Economics, who are at the forefront of the campaign to make economics open, relevant and accessible. And we’ll be asking for full and frank feedback on what we’ve done so far and what we might do in future.”
Top officials including Mark Carney, Ben Broadbent and Sir Jon Cunliffe will be answering questions.
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Surprise rise in US jobless claims
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly last week, partly because authorities are still clearing backlog of claims in Puerto Rico following the disruption caused by hurricanes.
New claims increased by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 249,000 in the week ending 11 November, the US Labor Department said.
Economists polled by Reuters were expecting a fall in the number of new claims to 235,000.
US jobless claims rose to a six-week high (249k), a move that may partly owe to volatility around the Veterans Day holiday pic.twitter.com/kNl99aBJ4S
— Johnny Bo Jakobsen (@jbjakobsen) November 16, 2017
Asda sales grow for a second quarter
Sales at Asda, Walmart’s UK supermarket chain, rose over the third quarter, by 1.1% on a like-for-like basis.
It was slower than the 1.8% growth achieved in the previous quarter, but marked the second consecutive rise in quarterly sales following three years of falls.
Walmart boss Doug McMillon said lower prices were encouraging shoppers to buy more:
In the UK, Asda delivered positive comparative sales again this quarter. The improvements in store experience and price investments are increasing store basket sizes.
We’re excited to have Roger Burnley lead Asda into the future as chief executive starting next year. Over the past year, Roger has been our chief operating officer and deputy chief executive and he has a long and distinguished retail career. I’d like to thank Sean Clarke for the tremendous work that he has done over the past year to stabilise the business and position it for growth.
Walmart beats sales expectations
Over in the US, the world’s largest retailer has reported its 13th consecutive rise in quarterly like-for-like sales, driven by growth in both shops and online.
Sales at Walmart stores open for more than a year rose 2.7%, excluding fuel, in the third quarter ending on 31 October. Analysts were expecting weaker growth of 1.7%.
Adjusted earnings a share increased to $1, beating expectations of 97 cents a share.
Doug McMillon, Walmart’s president and chief executive:
We have momentum, and it’s encouraging to see customers responding to our store and eCommerce initiatives. We are leveraging our unique assets to save customers time and money and serve them in ways that are easy, fast, friendly and fun.
The results, together with strong earnings reported by Cisco, are expected to boost Wall Street following two days of losses.
Mark Carney (and some of his senior colleagues from the Bank of England) will be hosting a session from 2pm on what they have been doing to make the economy and the Bank’s work more accessible.
Details below for anyone wanting to follow the event live:
Future Forum will be streamed live at 2pm today. Get involved by tweeting your views and questions using #FutureForumBoE. https://t.co/QoknIA9ijM pic.twitter.com/L9wBvWrQvc
— Bank of England (@bankofengland) November 16, 2017
Little cause to start Christmas celebrations, retail industry says
The British Retail Consortium says the October retail sales data from the ONS shows retailers are feeling the impact of the squeeze in household finances (as prices rise faster than wages):
These figures suggest retail sales held up better in October than other sources have suggested, however there is still little cause to start the Christmas celebrations.
Consumers are clearly feeling the squeeze, with sales down year on year and spending being directed into the second-hand market. It is therefore, vital that the chancellor does not add to the pressures on UK households’ finances in his upcoming budget.
Scottish Widows chairman Nick Prettejohn has been named the next chair of the publisher of the Daily Mirror, Sunday Mirror and Sunday People.
Prettejohn, a former BBC Trustee, will join Trinity Mirror, which is in talks to buy Richard Desmond’s Express Newspapers for £125m, in May.
Scottish Widows chairman and ex-BBC Trustee Nick Prettejohn to be next chairman of owner of Daily Mirror, Sunday Mirror and Sunday People https://t.co/wxD1LIaw9a
— Mark Sweney (@marksweney) November 16, 2017
The pound is up a touch after the UK retail sales data, which showed stronger-than-expected growth in sales at 0.3% in October.
Sterling is currently up 0.2% against the dollar at $1.3189, and up 0.5% against the euro at €1.1212.
Connor Campbell, analyst at Spread Ex, gives his take:
A better than forecast - but far from great - UK retail sales reading has managed to cheer up the pound.
Superficially October’s retail sales reading wasn’t bad, coming in at 0.3% against the 0.1% expected and September’s upwards revised -0.7%. However year-on-year the figure actually fell 0.3% - the first annual decline since March 2013 - meaning you’d have to be pretty desperate to treat the data as positive.
Yet after the inflation and wage growth misery of the last couple of days, desperate the pound is.
Andrew Sentance, former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, says that Philip Hammond won’t be so keen to stress Britain’s relative growth performance when he presents his budget next week:
One thing the Chancellor won't be able to boast about in next week's Budget is the UK's growth performance. We are now bottom of the growth league among major economies in Europe and North America. pic.twitter.com/piddO08PMw
— Andrew Sentance (@asentance) November 16, 2017
Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London, has said the Uber appeal process could go on for a number of years.
Uber is currently appealing against the decision by Transport for London to strip it of its London licence on the basis that the company is not a “fit and proper” private car hire operator.
The firm can continue to operate in the capital until it has exhausted the appeals process...
Khan is taking questions from the London Assembly:
This morning I’m answering questions from @LondonAssembly. Watch Mayor’s Question Time live on my Facebook page #MQT https://t.co/rqBAy6lfxt
— Sadiq Khan (@SadiqKhan) November 16, 2017
Eurozone inflation confirmed at 1.4% in October
Eurozone inflation was 1.4% in October according to Eurostat, confirming its earlier flash estimate. It was a slight drop from 1.5% in September.
Fuel, hotels and milk, cheese and eggs made the biggest contributions to inflation last month, while clothing and social protect held it back.
Here is a table showing how inflation rates across the European Union compare (showing the UK has one of the highest rates at 3%):
Clothing sales fall 1.5% in October
Consumer reluctance to spend money in October was evident in clothing sales, which fell by 1.5% over the month.
However, retailers are putting a lot of that down to warmer weather, which they say put people off from stocking up on winter clothing.
The ONS says:
Feedback from a number of clothing retailers suggested that a particularly mild October meant that consumers delayed purchasing winter season clothing. The Met Office summary for October 2017 said that the UK mean temperature was above the long-term average for this period.
James Smith, economist at ING, says that while the warmer weather played a part in the drop in clothing sales, there is also a broader weakness in consumer spending:
After a fairly sharp slump in September, retail sales stagnated in October as unseasonably warm weather meant shoppers weren’t replenishing their winter wardrobes.
But as weak readings from Visa and the British Retail Consortium have highlighted in recent months, consumers are still remaining very cautious more generally, particularly when it comes to non-essentials.
The household spending squeeze may have passed its worst, and indeed we think headline inflation will trend downwards from here. But wage growth remains under pressure, and with jobs growth showing early signs of stalling, we think incomes may not accelerate as fast as the Bank of England is hoping in 2018. That means consumers are likely to continue to take a cautious approach to spending for at least a couple more quarters.
Reaction to retail sales: consumer backdrop is weak
Some economists are not overly impressed with the 0.3% rise in retail sales in October, cautioning that it still paints a pretty weak picture of the consumer backdrop.
While today’s retail sales number has beat expectations, it comes after a clattering fall in September and does nothing to ease concerns that the High St is under severe pressure heading into the only time of year that it makes any money.
— WorldFirst (@World_First) November 16, 2017
Squeezed #UK #consumers reluctant to spend in Oct as #retail #sales volumes rise modest 0.3% m/m after fall of 0.7% in Sep. Sales down 0.3% y/y in Oct, first annual decline since 2013
— Howard Archer (@HowardArcherUK) November 16, 2017
Antiques, auction houses and charity shops boost retail sales in October
Demand for second-hand goods was a key driver of the 0.3% increase in monthly retail sales, according to the Office for National Statistics.
Consumers bought antiques, fine art and visited auction houses and charity shops in greater numbers in October.
Computers and phones were also popular items last month.
Kate Davies, a senior statistician at the ONS, says:
We are continuing to see an underlying picture of steady growth in retail sales, although this October suffered in comparison with a very strong October in 2016.
Growth month-on-month in October was particularly strong in the second-hand goods sector, which includes auction houses and antique dealers.
Breaking: UK retail sales rise 0.3% in October
Retail sales have beaten expectations with a 0.3% increase in October. Economists forecast 0.1%.
August has also been revised up slightly to show a sales drop of 0.7%, compared with a previous estimate of a 0.8% fall.
It wasn’t enough to prevent the first drop in annual sales since March 2013, with sales in October down 0.3% compared with a year earlier.
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UK retail sales data for October are coming up at 9.30am and should provide a key insight into consumer spending habits as real wages fall.
Economists polled by Reuters are expecting a 0.1% pick-up over the month, following a 0.8% fall in August.
The figures are also expected to show the first annual drop since March 2013, with economists predicting a 0.6% decline compared with October 2016.
Wasi Rizvi, analyst at RBC Capital Markets, says the shock departure of GKN’s chief executive designate is “another knock to confidence” after a profit warning a month ago.
While today’s warning is clearly more one-off in nature than October’s, it is a major knock to management credibility. The turmoil may be seen by some as perhaps making a break up [of the group] more likely and we expect that investors will continue to see value creation potential in such a scenario.
The appointment of an independent interim chief executive may also prompt some fresh thinking. However today’s update will also further call into question the attractions of GKN Aerospace as a stand-alone business, given it appears that margins have been overstated in the past.
Here is our full story on today’s surprise announcement:
GKN shares down 8% after shock announcement
Engineering group GKN is the FTSE 100’s worst performer this morning, with shares currently down 8%.
It follows the company’s shock announcement that chief executive designate, Kevin Cummings, has been pushed out before he’s even started the job.
New GKN boss ousted before he starts
An extraordinary announcement from GKN this morning.
The engineering giant has ousted Kevin Cummings, the man who was picked in September to take over as chief executive in December when Nigel Stein retires.
Cummings, who was until today head of GKN’s aerospace business, has left “with immediate effect”. His departure follows further write-downs in its US aerospace business which are expected to be somewhere between £80m and £130m.
A statement from the company reads:
The GKN board has concluded that the next stage of GKN’s development is best delivered under alternative leadership. As a result, Kevin Cummings, previously CEO designate, will leave the board and GKN with immediate effect.
The board has asked Anne Stevens, currently a non-executive director of the Board, to assume the role of Interim Chief Executive with effect from 1 January 2018 until a successor is appointed. As planned, Nigel Stein will continue as Chief Executive until he retires from the role on 31 December 2017.
GKN shares plunge a further 9% after more write downs announced in an unscheduled RNS
— Garry White (@GarryWhite) November 16, 2017
FTSE 100 rises in early trading
The FTSE 100 is slightly higher this morning, up just 5 points at 7,377.
Here is how it’s looking across Europe:
- FTSE 100: +0.1% at 7,377
- Germany’s DAX: +0.5% at 13,036
- France’s CAC: +0.4% at 5,321
- Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.04% at 22,150
- Spain’s IBEX: +0.5% at 10,065
- Europe’s STOXX 600: +0.4% at 383
Carney: Brexit pushed the UK down the G7 leaderboard
Commenting on the current state of the economy, the Bank of England governor said the UK was worse off than it would have been if Britain had voted to remain in the EU.
We have not done as well in the short term as we would have done if the vote had gone the other way.
We’ve gone from being the fastest growing economy in the G7 to one the slowest.
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The agenda: Carney on Brexit, UK retail sales
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Mark Carney gave reassurance this morning that the Bank of England stands ready to do whatever it can to support the UK economy in the event of any Brexit shock.
In an interview with ITV’s Good Morning Britain, the governor said policymakers at Threadneedle Street would keep inflation low and the financial system secure, whether or not a Brexit deal was struck with the EU.
We will do whatever we can to support the economy during the transition - whether there is no deal or a comprehensive deal.
We can provide support by keeping prices low and stable and by making sure banks can withstand whatever shock that might come whatever deal we have.
People shouldn’t have to worry about inflation and financial stability. We’ll make sure inflation stays low and the banks stay strong.
Carney added that a transition deal would be in “everyone’s interest”, and negotiators were working with that goal in mind.
He gave the interview in Liverpool, where he will be joined today from his colleagues Ben Broadbent, Sir Jon Cunliffe and Sir Dave Ramsden and for the 2017 Bank of England Future Forum. The policymakers will visit schools across the city to discuss the Bank’s role in serving society.
Also coming up today...
- 9.30am GMT: UK retail sales for October will give the latest snapshot of the high street and appetite among consumers to spend
- 10am GMT: Eurozone inflation data will provide a final estimate for October
- 1.30pm GMT: US weekly jobs losses will give the most recent update of the labour market
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