Afternoon summary
- Sajid Javid, the communities secretary, has told MPs that the chancellor will announce measures in the budget “to provide further support to businesses facing the steepest increases [from the business rates revaluation]”. See 4.23pm. The government will also review how business rates operate, he said. See 4.14pm.
- The government has been defeated in the Lords as peers backed plans to dramatically boost the minimum standards for mobile and broadband coverage. As the Press Association reports, amendments to the digital economy bill compel the government to set more ambitious targets for its new universal service obligation (USO), which would currently entitle consumers to a minimum broadband speed of at least 10Mbps. Ministers had faced cross-party calls to accept the amendments, saying they would pave the way for world-class coverage. Culture minister Lord Ashton of Hyde told the Lords the USO was about setting a minimum standard, adding the changes could breach EU directives. However, peers voted to accept the amendments to the Bill, backing them by 250 votes to 206, majority 44. Later, the government suffered a further defeat on the bill when peers backed a move that would allow customers to cap their monthly mobile bills. The amendment, which was voted through by 244 votes to 198, majority 46, would also allow users to switch mobile provider at no additional cost where a service is sub-standard and also to roam within the UK at no extra charge in provider “not spots”.
That’s all from me for today.
Thanks for the comments.
Updated
I posted a summary of Sir Ivan Rogers’ evidence to the Brexit committee earlier, but I have now beefed it up with a few extra quotes. You can read it here, at 12pm. You may need to refresh the page to get the updates to appear.
What Javid said about how budget will give extra help to firms worst affected by business rates revaluation
And this is what Javid said about the new measures coming in the budget to help firms affected by the business rates revaluation.
We have put in place a £3.6bn package of transitional relief to help more than 140,000 smaller businesses.
But, as colleagues and the media have highlighted in recent days, there are clearly some individual businesses facing particular difficulties. For example, businesses that are coming off rate relief can be faced with an alarming cliff edge. Independent retailers in some high-value areas are also struggling.
I have always listened to businesses and this situation is no exception. It is clear to me that more needs to be done to level the playing field and to make the system fairer.
I am working closely with my right honourable friend the chancellor to determine how best to provide further support to businesses facing the steepest increases. We expect to be in a position to make an announcement at the time of the budget in just two weeks’ time.
Updated
What Javid said about plans to review business rates
This is what Sajid Javid said about the government’s plans to review the business rates system.
Property-based business taxes have been around in one form or another for many decades, centuries even. Nobody would argue that the current system is perfect. And it is right now to ask whether the time has come for some kind of reform.
Now, the Treasury’s 2015 consultation showed little appetite for replacing the whole business rates system. It remains a vital element of the local government finance settlement and its importance will only rise with the introduction of business rates retention.
However, with underlying concerns about things like globalisation, international tax structures and the struggle between the high street and the virtual world, there is clearly some room for improvement.
So we’ll be looking at all possible steps for making it fairer and more sustainable in both the short term and the long term.
Updated
Gareth Thomas, the shadow local government minister, is replying for Labour.
He says after PMQs the prime minister’s spokesperson said there would be no new money to help firms affected by the business rates revaluation. He says Javid should confirm that the new money being announced is not just the result of money that would have helped other businesses being re-allocated.
Government to review how business rates system works, Javid says
Javid says there is no appetite for replacing the business rates system with a new system.
But he says that the government will review how the system can be improved in the short and medium term.
- Government to review how business rates system works, Javid says.
New measures to alleviate impact of business rate revaluation to be announced in budget, MPs told
Sajid Javid is now talking about business rates. He says, as someone how grew up above a corner shop, he knows exactly how important this issue is. His father knew how damaging competition from out-of-town supermarkets can be. He says if his father was live today, he would be lobbying him on this.
He says the business rates revaluation is revenue neutral.
He says three quarters of businesses will see their rates cut, or will not be affected.
But he knows how much this affects the other quarter.
Businesses coming off rate relief can be very badly affected.
He says it is clear that “more needs to be done to level the playing field and to make the system fairer”.
He says he is in talks with the chancellor, Philip Hammond, on this.
They expect to be able to make an announcement in the budget, he says.
- Javid says government plans to announce further measures to alleviate impact of business rate revaluation in the budget.
In the Commons Sajid Javid, the communities secretary, is opening a debate on local government financial reports.
We are expecting him to say something about the controversy about the business rates revaluation at some point.
Burnham accuses May of misrepresenting his social care proposals
At PMQs Theresa May quoted Andy Burnham, the Labour former health secretary and then later shadow health secretary, saying before the last election that he would cut hospital beds. (May actually said it was before the 2015 election, not before the 2010 election as I wrongly said earlier. See 12.07pm.)
Business Insider’s Adam Bienkov has the Burnham quote.
Here's the Andy Burnham comments Theresa May just mentioned in #PMQS. They're from this 2013 interview. https://t.co/9wmazNIPpQ pic.twitter.com/f5ugQbfHSD
— Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) February 22, 2017
And Andy Burnham has accused May of misrepresenting him.
The major point the PM seems not to have grasped is you can only reduce beds if you INVEST in social care, not cut it. That was my plan! https://t.co/RcPOlD6duY
— Andy Burnham (@andyburnhammp) February 22, 2017
Labour did not make mistake securing release of future suicide bomber, says Straw
Jack Straw, the Labour former home secretary and former justice secretary, has been speaking to BBC News about the Ronald Fiddler/Jamal al-Harith case. Here are the key points.
- Straw said that he did not think the Labour government made a mistake securing the release of Fiddler.
I don’t feel that we made a mistake here. The truth is there’s no way anybody could have guaranteed that 13 years later this man was not enticed by a way in Syria.
- But he said he never regarded Fiddler as innocent. Asked about this, Straw said:
I never regarded him as innocent, and neither [Tony] Blair nor I ever said that he was innocent. We judged that the risk was not so great as to prevent his release. Just that.
Let me also say that whenever you are making decisions about the release of prisoners you have to make a judgement and sometimes those judgements are not borne out by events ...
We have to be grown up about this. If you are asking ministers to release people, or anybody, including judges, to release people, sometimes they may carry on with criminal activities.
- He said as far as he knew Fiddler was “not involved in any terrorist activity, or planning, against Britain on British soil”.
- He said that when Labour was in power it faced a “barrage of campaigning” from people who wanted the government to do more to get Britons released from Guantanamo Bay. The criticism came not just from human rights groups, as you would expect, but from the Daily Mail, he said.
- He said that, although compensation was paid to Fiddler/al-Harith by the coalition government, Labour would probably have had to make the same decision if it had been in power.
- He said he did not think the Daily Mail was attacking Tony Blair today in retaliation for his speech last week saying Brexit should be reversed.
- He called for “greater maturity” in the public debate about the difficulty politicians face making decisions like this.
John Major once said that the only people who never make mistakes are the people who never make decisions. And that was I think very accurate.
- Straw said he had “very great respect” for Paul Dace, the Daily Mail editor, “as an individual and as a newspaper man”. But he said he thought the Mail had acted “inappropriately” today in not acknowledging that it had played a prominent role in campaigning for Fiddler to be released from Guantanamo Bay.
My colleague Anushka Asthana is doing a Guardian Facebook live video now, talking to the Labour MP Jess Phillips about the abuse MPs face online.
Tony Blair’s statement about Fiddler/al-Harith case and the Daily Mail includes a sentence accusing the paper of running a story titled: “Still Think He Wasn’t A Danger, Mr Blair? Fury at Labour government’s £1m compensation for innocent Brit.” (See 12.52pm.)
Blair was wrong about that. That headline is from the Sun.
Updated
My younger colleagues tell me that the deputy Labour leader Tom Watson seemed to be doing a dab at PMQs.
PMQs - Verdict from the Twitter commentariat
This is what political journalists and commentators are saying about PMQs on Twitter.
Generally, people were not impressed by either Jeremy Corbyn or Theresa May, although there is a view that keeping the NHS in the news helps Labour is Copeland.
From the New Statesman’s George Eaton
#PMQs review: Jeremy Corbyn bids for the NHS to rescue Labour, writes @georgeeaton. https://t.co/Ghq0pC47tM pic.twitter.com/kJxv8EmvtG
— The Staggers (@TheStaggers) February 22, 2017
From Sky’s Adam Boulton
Comment JC got NHS issue up TM parried and evaded - I doubt many minds will be changed.
— Adam Boulton (@adamboultonSKY) February 22, 2017
From the Daily Mirror’s Ben Glaze
Who won #PMQs ? @MirrorPolitics verdict here: https://t.co/yCyVIBxoqO *** dons tin hat ***
— Ben Glaze (@benglaze) February 22, 2017
From Sky’s Tamara Cohen
Corbyn questions rather rambling, but he's targeting the issue he wants to be in the news ahead of by-election voting #PMQs
— Tamara Cohen (@tamcohen) February 22, 2017
From the Sun’s Harry Cole
Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn bore everyone to tears with another repetitive PMQs squabble on the NHS https://t.co/Omc7aSW4Vx
— Sun Politics (@SunPolitics) February 22, 2017
From the Guardian’s Peter Walker
That was a really uninspiring #PMQs exchange. May needs a new gag-writer. Corbyn needs more focus. Lots of fury, little really achieved.
— Peter Walker (@peterwalker99) February 22, 2017
From the Guardian’s Heather Stewart
Find #PMQs particularly unenlightening at the moment - Corbyn wants righteous fury to share on social media; May responses scripted, clunky.
— Heather Stewart (@GuardianHeather) February 22, 2017
From Business Insider’s Adam Bienkov
I feel like I'd seen those #PMQs exchanges a dozen times before. Woeful
— Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) February 22, 2017
From the Spectator’s James Forsyth
Corbyn's questions aren't particularly incisive, but if they push the NHS up the agenda for 36 hours it will be job done for Labour
— James Forsyth (@JGForsyth) February 22, 2017
From 5 News’ Andy Bell
A sterile exchange on #NHS with neither leader distinguishing themselves #PMQs
— Andy Bell (@andybell5news) February 22, 2017
Updated
Neville-Jones says it is clear that the authorities got the threat level posed by Fiddler wrong.
But the fact that Fiddler was first detained in Kandahar in Afghanistan does not necessarily prove he was a seriously bad person, because many people were swept up there, she says.
Pauline Neville-Jones, a security minister under the coalition government, is being interviewed on the World at One now.
She says the possibility that Fiddler would continue to be a threat does not seem to have been taken as seriously as it should have been.
She says that Guantanamo Bay was probably not a place where people’s hostility to the west was lessened.
Jack Straw, the Labour former home secretary and justice secretary, is on the World at One now speaking about the Ronald Fiddler/Jamal al-Harith case.
Straw says that he and Tony Blair never argued that people being released from Guantanamo Bay did not pose a risk.
He says compensation to Fiddler was paid out under the coalition government, not under the Labour government.
He says the government faced the problem that it could not contest claims for compensation without revealing secret material in court. But he says the coalition government sought to address this by changing the law to allow some proceedings to be held in camera.
And he criticises Theresa May for relaxing the control order regime introduced by Labour.
UPDATE: I’ve corrected the penultimate paragraph because Straw was talking about the coalition government changing the law to allow some proceedings to be held in camera, not something he did as a minister.
Updated
During PMQs I missed the questions from Angus Robertson, the SNP leader at Westminster, because I was writing the snap verdict. So here they are.
Robertson asked if the government would ratify the Istanbul convention on domestic violence. He said:
The prime minister has said it is a key personal commitment to transform the way domestic violence is tackled. It’s hugely welcome that she has called for ideas about how the treatment of victims can be improved and convictions secured against abusers.
Theresa May replied:
There were still an estimated 1.3m female victims of domestic abuse over the last year. We are fully committed to ratifying it and that’s why we supported [SNP MP Eilidh Whiteford’s] private member’ bill. We need to maintain this momentum, that’s why I’m setting up a ministerial working group to look at the legislation, at how we provide support for victims and the possibility of a Domestic Violence Act.
Robertson then urged May to ensure that Tory MPs do not block Whiteford’s private member’s bill.
Will she join me in encouraging members to support the bill and discourage any attempts to use parliamentary wrecking tactics to stop it?
May said the government was backing the bill.
The government has tabled some mutually agreed amendments, which the government will be voting for on Friday and I hope all [Conservative MPs] here on Friday will be supporting those measures.
I’ve taken the quotes from PoliticsHome.
Here is the Guardian’s story from earlier today about Ronald Fiddler, who changed his name to Jamal al-Harith, the Manchester-born jihadi who blew himself up in Iraq.
Here is the full text of the statement Tony Blair has issued about the Daily Mail and Ronald Fiddler.
And here are further extracts.
I would not normally respond to daily stories about events which happened during my time in office but on this occasion I will do so, given the utter hypocrisy with which this story is being covered. The Daily Mail is running a story entitled “Still Think He Wasn’t A Danger, Mr Blair? Fury at Labour government’s £1m compensation for innocent Brit”, regarding news a former Guantanamo Bay detainee launched a suicide attack on behalf of ISIS this week ...
[Fiddler] was not paid compensation by my government. The compensation was agreed in 2010 by the Conservative government.
When his release was announced in very measured terms in 2004, pointing out the risks which remained with Guantanamo detainees, the Conservative MPs reacted by strongly criticising not the release but why it had taken so long.
The fact is that this was always a very difficult situation where any government would have to balance proper concern for civil liberties with desire to protect our security, and we were likely to be attacked whatever course we took. The reason it did take a long time for their release was precisely the anxiety over their true affiliations.
Pressed again in 2004 on the remaining British detainees at Guantanamo I told the liaison committee: “The difficulty for us is this: we all know that we are faced with a significant terrorist threat. Let us be clear, all of these people…were picked up in circumstances where we believe, at the very least, there are issues that need to be resolved, let us say, in respect of those individuals. Certainly from what I have seen about those individual cases, I would need to be very, very clear that there was in place in this country a sufficient infrastructure and machinery to be able to protect our own security”.
But those who demanded their release should not be allowed to get away with now telling us that it is a scandal that it happened.
UPDATE: Tony Blair’s statement about Fiddler/al-Harith case and the Daily Mail includes a sentence accusing the paper of running entitled: “Still Think He Wasn’t A Danger, Mr Blair? Fury at Labour government’s £1m compensation for innocent Brit.”
Blair was wrong about that. That headline is from the Sun.
Updated
Blair denies authorising £1m payment to Guantanamo Bay detainee involved in Iraq terror attack
Tony Blair denied that a Labour government had paid compensation to the former Guantanamo Bay detainee who went on to blow himself up in Iraq, in a strongly worded statement in which accused the Daily Mail’s of hypocritical coverage over his death.
The former prime minister said that compensation - though to amount to £1m - was paid out under the Conservative-led Coalition in 2010 - and criticised the tabloid for blaming himself and Labour instead.
On Wednesday morning, the Daily Mail splashed with a story the death of Jamal al-Harith, who changed his name from Ronald Fiddler after converting to Islam in his 20s but most recently went by the nom de guerre Abu-Zakariya al-Britani, in which Blair’s government was singled out for “intense lobbying” for his release.
MAIL: IS Suicide bomber you paid £1m #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/mafw9kVzjU
— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) February 21, 2017
Blair lashed out the Daily Mail’s “utter hypocrisy” as the newspaper actually led a media campaign for Fiddler’s release from Guantanamo.
“It is correct that Jamal al-Harith was released from Guantanamo Bay at the request of the British Government in 2004,” he said. “This followed a massive media and Parliamentary campaign, led by the Daily Mail, the very paper that is now supposedly so outraged at his release and strongly supported by the then Conservative opposition.
“The Mail headline shortly after he was released after months of their campaigning was “Freedom At Last for Guantanamo Britons”.
“They then quoted with approval various human rights activists saying ‘clearly by what’s happened they’re not bad guys, they are entirely innocent’.”
Ronald Fiddler, 50, who changed his name to Jamal al-Harith after converting to Islam in his 20s, but most recently went by the nom de guerre Abu-Zakariya al-Britani, is said by Islamic State to have carried out the suicide attack on coalition forces innear Mosul on Monday.
Updated
Andy Burnham, the Labour MP, says May said when she became prime minister that she wanted to end the injustice of so few working class boys going to university. How is that consistent with all the schools in Leigh, his constituency, losing money.
May says the government is looking at a new funding formula. But the government wants an education policy that allows all pupils to fulfil their potential.
Caroline Lucas, the Green MP, says the business rates hike could have a devastating impact in Brighton. Will she set up a discretionary fund and review the whole system?
May says business rates are based on property values, which go up and down. The government wants to support businesses. Transitional relief will be in place. But she recognises that some firms will have problems, and that is why she has asked ministers to ensure that those particularly badly affected get “appropriate relief”.
Neil Parish, a Conservative, asks about the killing of Barry Pring in Ukraine. It is not being properly investigated. Will May take it up with the Ukrainian authorities?
May says the police have liaised with the Ukrainian authorities, and information from the inquest is being passed on to Ukraine.
Labour’s Nic Dakin asks if May supports giving more support for research into pancreatic cancer.
May says this is a very difficult cancer to treat. She agrees that more attention should be given to cancers like pancreatic cancer.
Crispin Blunt, a Conservative, asks if the government will allow humanists to conduct marriages in England, as they can do in Scotland.
May says this is a difficult area of law, and that the government is looking at it carefully.
Labour’s Phil Wilson says May has said no deal with the EU is better than a bad deal. Does the same apply to any proposed trade deal with the US.
May says any trade deal the UK concludes will be good for the UK.
Chris Davies, a Conservative, asks about constituents whose daughter was killed in Thailand. The killer has not been found. Will the government intervene to help ensure her effects are returned.
May says this is a terrible case. She says the Foreign Office has been providing support.
Labour’s Kerry McCarthy asks May if she will meet the mayor of Bristol to discuss the budget cuts he faces.
May says Sajid Javid, the communities secretary, has already had a meeting with the mayor.
May says the government needs to be able to increase vaccine production in the event of a pandemic. There are contingency plans for this, she says. She says the government also has a £10m competition to promote vaccine productions.
PMQs - Snap verdict
PMQs - Snap verdict: Health should be a winning topic for Labour, and giving the importance of the West Cumbria hospital downgrade plans in the Copeland byelection it is particularly topical this week, but Corbyn never quite got the upper hand in those exchanges. He was just too scattergun, and too vague; there was no single, tightly-focused question that caused difficulties for May. He was probably unwise to raise Surrey again, without any arguments to rebut the predictable claim from May that his allegations from two weeks ago had not been sustained, and, having raised the issue of the abolition of nurseries of bursaries, he did not have the convincing arguments he needed to press his case. May seems notably more combative and more confident than she was at PMQs towards the end of last year and you could tell she emerged unscathed because she managed to get through a whole session on the NHS without having to go on about Wales.
Updated
Corbyn says in reality 10,000 fewer nursing training places are being filled, because fewer people are applying now that bursaries have gone. Will May reinstate those bursaries.
May says she answered the question about nurse training places. Let’s look at what is happening in the NHS, she says. More people are being seen, and more operations are taking place. NHS staff are working hard. What they do not need is a Labour policy that would bankrupt the economy.
Corbyn says we should recognise the pressure nurses are under. A survey today says nurses are overstretched. There is a nursing shortage. Something should be done about it, such as reinstating the nursing bursary. Some 18,000 patients a week are waiting on trolleys. As Tories jeer, he says some people are not bothered 1.2m elderly people are not getting the care they need. We need a government that puts the NHS first.
May say Corbyn should consider correcting the record. Most NHS trusts are good or outstanding, contrary to what Corbyn said. She will not take any lessons from the party that presided over Mid Staffs. He says Labour should learn lesson. They still fail to recognise that you need a strong economy to fund the NHS. Labour used to talk about boom and bust. Now it is now longer boom and bust, it is borrow and bankrupt.
Corbyn says May did not answer the question about why units are closing. One problem is social care. Lord Porter, the Conservative LGA leader, says the council tax precept increase will not give councils what they need. When will other councils get what Surrey is getting.
May says Corbyn asked about Surrey two weeks ago. His claims were demolished. Corbyn should apologise.
Corbyn says May should answer the letter from other council leaders asking if they will get the same deal as Surrey. Has the government met it target of creating 10,000 more training places for nurses.
May says that target has been met. The Conservatives are putting more money into the NHS, and is spending more than Labour planned to do at the time of the last election.
Corbyn says waiting times are getting worse. Why are one in six A&E units set for closure or downgrading.
May says there are more emergency care doctors, and more people being seen in A&E. Corbyn asks what the NHS needs. More doctors? It is getting more doctors. More funding? It is getting that. But it does not need a bankrupt economy.
Jeremy Corbyn says when hospitals are struggling to provide essential care, why is the NHS cutting the number of hospital beds?
May says thanks to new technology, the average amount of time spent in a hospital bed has halved. And under Labour 25,000 hospital beds were cut. She says before the 2010 election Andy Burnham, the then Labour health secretary, said he would cut the number of hospital beds.
UPDATE: I’ve corrected the post above because May said Burnham made this comment before the 2015 election, not before the 2010 election as I originally reported.
Updated
May says the current school funding system does not work properly. Labour did not address it properly, she says. There is a consultation underway.
Labour’s Yasmin Qureshi asks about the campaign fighting the cuts at West Cumbria hospital. They were due to deliver a petition at Number 10 yesterday. But they were told to come back after the byelection.
Theresa May says the petition was delivered yesterday. She says the very good Conservative candidate in the Copeland byelection has told May herself how opposed people are to the cuts.
PMQs
PMQs is about to start.
Today's running order for #pmqs - some Tory names could be interesting there pic.twitter.com/rz8uhxhbDD
— Dan Bloom (@danbloom1) February 22, 2017
Ivan Rogers' evidence to the Commons Brexit committee - Summary
Here are the key points from Sir Ivan Rogers’ evidence to the Brexit committee.
- Rogers said he did not think EU countries would agree a trade deal with special terms for specific sectors of the economy. This is significant because Theresa May has said she does hope to get a deal that would allow some sectors of the economy, like the car industry, to effectively remain in the customs union. Asked if Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, would back sectoral deals, or whether she would put the unity of the single market and the customs union first, Roger said Merkel and others would prioritise maintaining the integrity of the single market and the customs union. In response to the question, he said
Well, with Merkel, if she’s still there, the unity, the unity of the 27, will win out and I think she and others will agree that there will be no sectoral deals in either the single market or the customs union, and I expect that to appear in either the guidelines or the negotiating mandate.
- Rogers said that it would be “insane” for the UK just to leave the EU without a trade deal, because legal agreements would not be in place to allow the UK to trade with the EU. Both the UK and the EU would suffer. That meant both sides would have a strong incentive not to allow this to happen, he said. But the fact that it might be disastrous did not mean it could not happen. He told the MPs.
If you had an abrupt cliff edge with real world consequences, you’ve seen what Mark Carney [governor of the Bank of England] has said about the financial stability risks to the eurozone of an abrupt cliff edge. There are other consequences in other sectors which would make it an insane thing to do. All I was pointing out was that this is a very legalistic body that we are dealing with and they will say you have transformed yourselves overnight from having been a member of this body to a third country outside the body and in the absence of a new legal agreement everything falls away. We all know that that’s nuts in the real world, because why would you want to stop UK planes flying into European airports on day [one]. We know that this is insanity, but that doesn’t mean - we know that stopping carcasses and consignments and saying ‘your slaughterhouses are no longer approved’, we may know that that is a nonsense in the real world. Sadly, that does not stop it necessarily happening.
- He said no major economy traded with the EU solely on World Trade Organisation terms.
No other major player trades with the EU on pure WTO-only terms. It is not true that the Americans do, or the Australians or the Canadians or the Israelis or the Swiss. They strike preferential trade deals where they can. But they also strike more minor equivalence agreements, financial services equivalence agreements, veterinary equivalence agreements, mutual conformity of assessment agreements. The EU has mutual conformity of assessment agreements with the US, with Canada, with Israel, with Switzerland, with Australia, with New Zealand, and more I think.
- He said having a free trade deal with the EU would not be as good as being in the single market.
Maybe I could give you some examples of what’s the difference between being in a single market and a free trade area. Because there are some. It is not true you get everything you want from an FTA [free trade agreemeent] and it’s just the same as the single market. This is the crucial difference between access to the market and membership of it.
So, for example, on planes, access to the single market means planes can land in EU airports and return from EU airports. Membership of the single market means you get slots and gate and land allocation on the same terms as local airlines, ie not 3am slots a mile away from the terminal. And airlines can fly within the EU, not just to and from the EU.
Access means that your banks can only lend via a local subsidiary. Membership means there is no need for your banks to be separately supervised, regulated, managed and capitalised [by a] subsidiary in other countries, that one can operate through branches, and that home state rules and supervision suffice.
Access means that Scotch can be sold into France or Germany or whatever. Membership of the single market means that all taxes and duties for comparable products for Scotch must be the same as for Scotch. And if they are not, we can take them to the ECJ and say why are they not. We won’t be able to take them to the ECJ ... when we’ve only got access.
- He said other EU countries did not understand why the UK counted EU migration as migration.
If I think back to our renegotiation last February, nomenclature was a huge issue for people. They genuinely don’t understand the UK debate in which the two are conflated at all. They don’t understand why a government would have a migration target covering both migration within the European Union - which for other people is not migration, they don’t call it migration, they don’t call it immigration, they call it free movement. The amount of time I spent with my opposite numbers over many years trying to explain why our nomenclature and why our whole debate was different, and why we called both these things essentially the same - for all my other colleagues, they say, ‘But one’s migration, which is external from the European Union, the other is free movement of people, which is not at all the same thing.’
- He said he expected the Brexit talks to lead to a “gory” row about money. He told the MPs:
From all the [EU27 [countries], albeit in different ways, depending on whether they are net recipients or net contributors, the budgetary issue now comes to the fore.
And I think we can expect a number of them to think - well, if the British want a future trade deal, and they want some form of transitional arrangement before a future trade deal, all big ifs, then this will come together at some gory European council in the autumn of 2018 and it will come together with the money equation.
There will be some who will want to play hardball and say, ‘well, absent British money over a transitional period, why the hell should we give them any trade deal?’
I’m not saying that’s a majority view, I wouldn’t be in a position from my discussions before Christmas to know exactly where people will come out on that, it was very early days there, pre-Christmas.
All I was conscious of from all of the discussions I was having with opposite numbers was there was a hell of a lot of work going on in the undergrowth to examine the implications of a UK exit on the budget.
- He said there was a risk of Britain being “screwed” if it did not get its trade deal with the EU right. Britain has a trade deficit in goods, but a surplus in services, he said, and so there was a risk that the EU would push for a minimalist trade deal focusing on goods. That would be bad for Britain, he said.
We have an enormously valuable and competitive services sector with a huge surplus where we risk being screwed if we don’t get this right.
It was particularly important to ensure financial services were covered, he said.
This is a very serious problem unless we get a bespoke financial services deal with equivalence which really works for us. This would be something the EU 27 has not done for any other member state and what it hasn’t been prepared to do for any other partner.
- He said EU leaders do not think it will be possible for the UK to conclude a trade deal with the EU within two years. May claims this is possible. But Rogers said “the key players, the key officials, the key technocrats, the key theologians” in the EU think a new relationship may not be agreed until 2022 even if negotiations proceed “unprecedentedly fast”.
- He said Britain was “up against a class act in the European commission when it comes to negotiating”. The commission was not good at everything, he said, but it was “one of the top two trade negotiating authorities in the world”.
- He said what would make negotiating a free trade deal with the EU difficult would be non-tariff barriers, not tariffs. Negotiating a tariff-free deal would be straightforward, he said. But non-tariff barriers would be difficult because EU countries think the UK is leaving the EU so it can abandon EU regulations. He said this was not an issue in most trade deals because they involve countries trying to converge their regulatory regimes, not trying to separate them.
- He said the article 50 process structurally favoured the 27 countries staying in the EU, not the one country leaving.
Updated
The committee hearing has just finished. This exchange came towards the end.
Rogers: "There's quite a lot of sunshine in my view."
— Robert Hutton (@RobDotHutton) February 22, 2017
Raab: "I missed the sunshine."
Dominic Raab is a pro-Brexit Conservative.
I will post a summary soon.
Rogers says the UK cannot know at this stage whether countries like South Korea will offer the UK the same trade terms as it has had as part of the EU after Brexit, or whether they will insist on changes because the UK is smaller.
The SNP MP Joanna Cherry goes next. She asks about the article 50 process.
Rogers says he does not want to say this is a “rigged process”. But the article 50 process is determined by the other 27 countries in their interests. It is something that is “done to you”.
If you want to extend the process beyond the allocated two-years, you need the permission of all 27 states.
So it works more in their interests than in the UK’s, he says.
The Conservative Craig Mackinlay goes next.
Q: Shouldn’t these liabilities have been included in EU accounts? Or have the EU accounts been deficient for years?
Rogers says the EU has always had this arcane way of looking at its accounts. The 2013 budget agreement included a 5% gap between EU payments and EU commitments.
He says this is an “absurd” situation.
It is not a great accounting system.
You have seen that from all the complaints about EU accounting raised over the years, he says.
Rogers says other EU countries are in principle in favour of a free trade deal with the UK.
But whether it can be concluded on terms that suit the UK, and whether it can be concluded by next October, is another matter.
Q: This €60bn figure from the EU: does this mean the UK has been understating its contribution to the EU. Was £350m a week an understatement?
Rogers says, following that logic, Lilley would be right.
Rogers says we have a surplus with services and “we risk being screwed” if we do no get the new trade terms right.
He says the UK needs a bespoke financial deal that really works for us.
The EU has not done this for any other country, he says.
Peter Lilley, the pro-leave Conservative and a former trade secretary, goes next. He says he is one of those people who thinks that it is quite likely that the UK will leave without a trade deal.
Q: If you start from zero tariffs, and want a trade deal with no tariffs, why should it take more than 10 minutes to negotiate a trade deal?
Rogers says that is correct. The problem relates to non-tariff barriers.
The issue is divergence, he says. EU countries think the UK is leaving the EU so it can change its regulations.
Q: Isn’t the key thing just negotiating a dispute-resolution mechanism for when regulations diverge? Isn’t that all we have to negotiate?
Rogers says he agrees that agreeing a dispute resolution mechanism will be crucial. This is not insoluble, he says.
But most free trade agreements are about countries that are converging. This will be between countries that are diversing.
That is why the describe it as a “de-accession” process.
He says the UK is not leaving the EU to “keep in aspic the acquis [the body of EU law]”.
That is what EU countries worry about, he says. They want to know what happens when the UK diverges.
Rogers says that trying to stop the UK trading with the EU after Brexit, or to stop British planes landing in EU airports, would be “nuts” or “insanity”.
But that does not mean these things could not happen, he says.
Q: Michel Barnier has said that, until the money issue is settled, there cannot be any agremeent on anything else. Do you accept that?
Rogers says he does not think the UK will accept that. That was not the position when he was working for the government.
He says his “gut instinct” is that EU leaders will not put a number on the table. They might. But they might just lay down a set of principles that would determine who much the UK should pay.
Rogers says the UK has always done its accounts on the basis of what it pays, not on the basis of what commitments it has made.
(The argument that the UK owes the EU €60bn is based on looking at EU commitments, not at how much the EU has actually spent.)
The DUP’s Sammy Wilson goes next.
Q: How seriously can we take the various figures given for how much the UK might have to pay to leave the EU?
Rogers says you should take it seriously in the sense that this will be part of the negotiation.
But he says he would not take the science behind the number the EU comes up with too seriously. They will argue for a high number. UK government solicitors will make the case for a low number, or no number at all.
He recommends the report on this by Alex Barker for the Centre for European Reform.
There is also an issue about that happens to the EU’s assets, he says. That might be even more complicated.
With regard to Britain’s share of liabilities, he says the commission will “try it on.
Q: How committed are the other 27 member states to the number produced by the commission?
Rogers says it is too early to say.
But he says this is one issue over which EU countries might unite, because they all lose out financially from the UK leaving.
Q: What is your assessment now of how the department for exiting the EU (or the Brexit department as we call it) is operating now?
Rogers says it is growing. There is always a tension between what the centre and the departments, he says.
He says he was trying to make the point that the British are up against a “class act” in the European commission for negotiating. He says there are lots of things the commission is not good at, but it is good at negotiating.
He says he argued that Britain needed to boost its capacity so it could match the commission.
Bloomberg’s Robert Hutton thinks Michael Gove has not been listening to Rogers’ evidence.
Michael Gove asks Rogers to explain what about the govt's plans represents muddled thinking. He's just spent an hour doing that.
— Robert Hutton (@RobDotHutton) February 22, 2017
Michael Gove, the Conservative former justice secretary and leading Vote Leave campaigner, goes next. He asks about Rogers’ resignation email. What “muddled thinking” was he talking about?
Rogers says he was making the point to his staff that they need to challenge people who are wrong. He included himself in this, he said, because there were times when he might be talking rubbish, and he wanted to be told that.
Rogers implies that trading with the EU just on WTO terms would be unacceptable
Rogers says, although the EU and the US do not have a free trade agreements, they do have agreements covering trade. There are 20-plus agreements, he says.
Q: So having no deal would not put the UK in the same position as the US?
Rogers says, if the UK leaves the single market, it will lose access.
He says he does not want to be “excessively alarmist”. But, if you are contemplating trading on WTO terms, you have to know what that will mean for every sector. He says he knows a lot about this subject, but he does not have all the answers to that. He says the government should be doing this analysis, and working out whether trading on WTO-terms would be realistic.
- Rogers implies that trading with the EU just on WTO terms would be unacceptable.
Q: Why would no deal be worse than a what Theresa May describes as a bad deal?
Rogers says EU countries think that not having a trade deal would be so bad for the UK that the UK would not accept it.
They see the EU as a legalistic enterprise. And without a trade deal, the UK would be disadvantaged.
He says he agrees that the talks could get “bitter and twisted on money”.
He says EU countries think the consequences of lurching to WTO-only trade are “really rather grim”.
The UK is saying, our trading terms were fine the day before we left, why can’t you accept them after we leave, he says.
He says EU leaders say that may be the case but, without a legal agreement, we do not recognise your standards.
We will say, ‘What has changed?’. They will say, ‘The law has changed’.
The Labour MP Pat McFadden, who campaigned for remain, goes next.
Rogers says he thinks EU countries will shy away from doing sectoral deals either on free trade or in relation to the customs union.
Rogers says the UK could in principle get a free trade agreement covering goods and services. But the danger is that the EU would just offer a goods-only one, because the UK has a surplus in services.
John Whittingdale, the pro-leave Conservative former culture secretary, is asking the questions now.
Rogers says a free trade agreement is a “perfectly viable” destination for the UK. It is not like single market membership. It does involve control of borders, and gets Britain out of the jurisdiction of the European court of justice.
The problem with the WTO is that it has not got very far with liberalising services, he says.
He says he hopes the UK and the EU will both want the biggest free trade deal ever struck, covering services as well as trade, and going further on services than any other free trade agreement.
But what is the difference between that and being in the single market, he asks.
With regard to planes, access to the single market would mean planes being allowed to land at EU airports. Membership means having guaranteed landing slots, and not having to land one mile away from the terminal.
Rogers says the issue with regulatory compliance between the UK and the EU will not be what it is like on day one. The problem arises after day one, when the UK starts to change its regulations.
He says no other major country trades with the EU just on WTO terms. They strike preferential agreements where they can. And they strike mutual conformity agreements.
It is not true to say EU-US trade is governed just by the WTO, he says.
Merkel will oppose Brexit deal that offers special terms for car manufacturers, Rogers says
Q: What do you think of the argument that Germany’s stance will be influenced by the demands of German car manufacturers?
Rogers says clearly Germany’s self-interest is in doing a preferential trade deal.
But the interests of companies are not always the same as the interests of countries.
German car manufacturers are quite powerful, he says. But Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, has said that no sectional interest will be put ahead of the national interest.
But she would say that, he says.
He says the UK has a major deficit in goods, but a major surplus in services.
German car manufacturers might think the best deal would be a minimal free trade deal, covering goods but not services.
Q: But which in the end will win out? The desire to maintain unity? Or the interests of car manufacturers?
If Merkel is still chancellor, unity, he says. He says she will not want preferential deals for some sections of the economy. He says he expects that to appear in the negotiation mandate.
- Merkel will oppose Brexit deal that offers special terms for car manufacturers, Rogers says.
Q: Is there any chance that Brexit could lead to the EU making reforms it has resisted until now?
Rogers says it is probably too early to tell.
Brexit has introduced a new dynamic into the EU on multiple fronts.
After the referendum people started thinking about what the EU would be like after Brexit. The Northern Lights group (Northern European countries) is not exactly defunct without Britain, but it is different, and is meeting without the UK.
Rogers says the British will have to understand what are the “neuralgic points” in every capital that might stop them signing up to a final Brexit deal.
Alistair Burt, the Conservative MP who campaigned for remain, goes next.
Q: What is the balance of power between the commission and the member states?
Rogers says the commission specialises in negotiation. It has a lot of knowledge, he says. There is an asymmetry there. They know much more about the views of the other 27 than the UK will know, he says.
But he says EU leaders will not allow the commission to “freelance”. They will keep “close tabs” on it.
This is “leader level stuff”, he says. The key issues will all to to leaders. They will not be settled at the Michel Barnier/David Davis level.
But the European parliament will be involved. And other countries’ MEPs coordinate more closely with their national governments than British MEPs do, he says.
He says you can think you have got a 2-0 win at the European council. But it’s a half-time score, because the parliament then gets involved. He says he spent a lot of time in recent years trying to improve Britain’s negotiating clout within the European parliament.
Updated
Other EU countries don’t understand why UK sees EU migration as migration, says Rogers
Rogers says other EU countries do not understand why Britain has a migration target covering migration from the EU.
They do not see that as migration, he says. They see that as the free movement of people. They argue that is not the same thing.
- Other EU countries don’t understand why UK sees EU migration as migration, says Rogers.
Q: And was Cameron too reliant on Germany?
Rogers says Cameron always thought, correctly, that the most powerful player in Europe was Berlin.
He says Cameron did not “over-rely on the reliability of Berlin”. He says Cameron was more realistic on this than some media accounts suggest.
Q: Would David Cameron have got further if he had spent longer on the EU renegotiation? And what do you say to the claim that he was too dependent on Germany to help him out?
Rogers says we will never know what would have happened if Cameron has walked away from the table in February last year.
There would have been several months of recriminations, he says. The parties would only be coming back to the table now, or at the end of last year. Would they have been more amenable to a deal? Or less amenable, because of the proximity to the French and German elections?
Rogers says his “honest view” is that Cameron would not have got any further in terms of getting “quantitive” restrictions on immigration.
These are article of faith for some EU countries, especially Eastern European ones and Germany.
He says the Brexit negotiation will not be similar to the Cameron one.
The Cameron one was the “last throw” at an attempt to get a multi-tier Europe. That is not the same as a multi-speed Europe, where all countries are heading in the same direction. He wanted a Europe were countries were not heading in the same direction.
But that game is over, he says. There is no appetite to return to that, he says.
He says, when Cameron gave the Bloomberg speech in 2013, he thought his changes could be embodied in treaty change in 2015 or 2016.
But the appetite for treaty change amongst other EU leaders vanished, he says.
The Labour MP Stephen Timms is asking questions now.
Rogers says the phrase single market does not appear in the EU treaties. Instead it is referred to as the internal market.
He says it is best to think of a single market as a regulatory union. It is not the same as a free trade area.
A single market is a group of nations that agrees to be bound by a single regulatory code. It requires its members to be bound by the four freedoms of movement (labour, capital, goods, services).
Rogers says that, in his letter to Number 10 that was reported by the BBC in December, he did not say it would take 10 years to get a trade deal. But he did say getting a full trade deal, and getting it ratified, would take “several years”.
The conventional wisdom in the EU is that, even if the UK and the EU moved very quickly, it would take until summer 2020 to negotiate a trade deal. And then another two years to ratify it.
He says it depends whether you are talking about a framework trade agreement, or a full one.
A framework trade agreement does not give you “legal facts on the ground”, he says.
Rogers says the UK will want a trade deal, and a transitional deal.
He says he expects this to come together with the money issue at an EU summit in the autumn of 2018.
Rogers says he thinks there are substantial differences between the other 27 member states.
That is why they are so keen not to open negotiations until article 50 is triggered, he thinks. They don’t want the British to pick them apart.
He says, without the British, there will be a gap in the EU budget in 2020.
Britain’s normal allies in the EU were the net contributors to the EU budget.
But those countries are now as agitated as the net beneficiaries about the prospect of the UK leaving.
Net beneficiaries worry about getting less money. They might get 88, not 100. (He doesn’t specify units.)
But net contributors are worried too, he says, because they think they might be asked to pay more.
He says the UK has “lobbed a grenade” into this process.
He says his Dutch opposite number said the Netherlands may have to pay 500m more euros into the EU budget because of the absence of Britain.
Ivan Rogers' evidence to the Commons Brexit committee
Sir Ivan Rogers is giving evidence now.
He says it is not clear how the Brexit negotiations will be carried out.
He says he expects the UK to demand a substantial negotiation on the final trade deal alongside the withdrawal negotiation. The government may say anything else would be unacceptable.
EU leaders want the withdrawal terms to be negotiated first.
Roger says he thinks it will take a while to settle this issue, perhaps until the summer.
Which Briton on the planet knows the most about the possible problems the government will face as it negotiates Brexit? Obviously anyone who has read the whole of the Guardian’s three-day series on “the Brexit gamble” will be doing well, but the ultimate Brexit expert is probably Sir Ivan Rogers, who resigned as Britain’s ambassador to the EU in January.
Rogers caused a row when he quit, and infuriated pro-leave supporters with his resignation email. Three weeks ago he gave evidence to the Commons European scrutiny committee. It was a fascinating hearing (summarised on my blog here, and written up by Patrick Wintour here), but today Rogers is back for an encore with the Commons Brexit committee, a more high-powered body that also includes Michael Gove, scourge of all experts, not just Brexit ones. It should be a revealing hearing, and I will be covering it in full.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.15am: Sir Ivan Rogers, the former British ambassador to the EU, gives evidence to the Commons Brexit committee.
9.45am: Nick Gibb, the schools minister, gives evidence to the Commons education committee.
9.45am: The supreme court gives its judgment on the “minimum income” immigration rule case.
10.45am: Tim Farron, the Lib Dem leader, gives a speech on the case for a green industrial revolution.
12pm: Theresa May faces Jeremy Corbyn at PMQs.
As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to post a summary after PMQs and another in the afternoon.
You can read all today’s Guardian politics stories here.
If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time. Alternatively you could post a question to me on Twitter.