Closing summary
Before we close the blog for the day, here is a summary of the main events. Predictably, it’s been Brexit focused.
- The day began with a message from the French finance minister, Michel Sapin, who said US banks had told him they were definitely planning to move operations out of the UK now that Brexit looks certain to go ahead.
- The pound has suffered no major lurches, hovering around the $1.22 mark (although it did dip below at one point). It is currently at $1.2208.
- European markets have built on gains throughout the day, with all the major indices up more than 1% and in some cases up more than 2%. Europe’s STOXX 600 is up 1.6% at 341, while the FTSE 100 is up 1% at 7,048.
- US retail sales rebounded in September, while UK construction data showed a surprise fall in output in August.
A final point: Traders have been offloading government bonds today following Carney’s inflation comments and fears of a hard Brexit.
The yield on benchmark 10-year bonds climbed to 1.14%, up from 0.97% a week ago.
On that note, we’ll close up. Thank you for reading the blog and for all the comments. You can follow all the latest breaking Guardian business stories here. Have a great weekend and please join us again on Monday. AM
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US markets open higher
Wall Street has opened higher, with better than expected results from Citigroup and JP Morgan lifting financial stocks.
- Dow Jones: +0.8% at 18,238
- S&P 500: +0.6% at 2,144
- Nasdaq: +0.6% at 4,830
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Over in Greece today, a conversation that allegedly took place at the height of the euro debt crisis between the Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, and the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, is causing ructions.
Did he or didn’t he? That is the question on the lips of many as the fallout from revelations in a book about the French president, François Hollande, reverberate around Athens. In the tome, entitled “A president shouldn’t say that”, Hollande is cited as saying Putin had confided that in summer 2015, Tsipras asked him if Russia would consider printing drachma in the event of Athens being ejected from the eurozone.
Putin is claimed to have said: “Greece has asked us to print drachma in Russia, since it no longer has a printing press to do it. I wanted to tell you so you understand that we don’t want something like that.”
But did Tsipras ever utter such words? Sources close to him swear not – even if it is now well known that his request for a €10bn loan from Russia was refused at the time. Earlier today, the deputy defence minister, Dimitris Vitsas, a close confidant, fiercely denied the claim, calling it “nonsense.”
Officials in Moscow have also rejected the allegation.
With Tsipras and his Syriza party now enthusiastically embracing the eurozone, despite the immense price Athens is paying in terms of bailout-induced austerity, the spat is overshadowing a much-anticipated Syriza congress.
In a speech opening the three-day event last night, Tsipras insisted that leaving the euro would have destroyed Greece and was not an alternative the progressive left could adopt.
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Theresa May holds Brexit meeting with Nissan boss
The Prime Minister has met the chief executive of Nissan, Carlos Ghosn, to discuss the impact of Brexit.
It follows a warning from the Japanese carmaker that it could pull further investment at its Sunderland plant, unless the UK government guarantees compensation for any Brexit-related tariffs it might face in the future.
A Nissan spokesman said:
The purpose of this meeting between Mr Ghosn and Mrs May is to ensure both Nissan and the UK government have an aligned way forward that meets the needs of both the company and the country.
We do not expect any specific agreement to be communicated followin g this initial introductory meeting of the chief executive and the prime minister.
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Chris Williamson at IHS Markit says the headline rebound in US retail sales in September masks a weaker picture for “core” sales, which strip out food, fuel and cars.
While the September upturn is good news, take a step backwards and it’s clear that the picture is not so bright. The September upturn leaves total sales 0.7% higher in the third quarter, less than half of the 1.5% expansion seen in the second quarter.
The data on core sales are even more worrying. Over the third quarter as a whole, core sales were up a mere 0.1% (or 0.4% annualised), which is the worst performance since the second quarter of 2013.
It’s core sales which tend to be a better guide to wider measures of consumer spending, so this weakening trend is a big concern and will likely lead to some downward revisions to third quarter GDP forecasts.
US core retail sales up just 0.1% in Q3 v Q2 = worst performance since 2013 Q2 and one of worst this side of global financial crisis pic.twitter.com/VHj6sfzcHR
— Chris Williamson (@WilliamsonChris) October 14, 2016
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US retail sales rebound in September
Retail sales in the US rose by 0.6% in September, following a 0.2% drop in August.
The increase was in line with economists’ expectations, and will support expectations that the Fed could raise rates in December.
US data for factory gate inflation also suggested price pressures are starting to build, which is likely to further fuel expectations of a hike.
James Knightley, senior economist for the UK and US at ING:
Overall, the reasonably firm retail sales number and slightly higher inflation data support the idea of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December – Fed funds futures currently pricing a 66.7% probability of this happening.
The only things that can really stop momentum building for such a move would be a market unfriendly election outcome and softness in the two payrolls reports between now and the December Fed meeting.
European new car sales rose 7.2% in September, figures published earlier showed.
It was slower than the 9.8% growth in the same month last year, held back by weaker sales in the UK.
A total of 1.45m new cars were registered last month, according to European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), the highest September total on record.
Sales in Italy were up 17.4% over the month at the top end of the table, but sales rose by just 1.6% in the UK.
Carlos DaSilva at IHS Markit said there was no sign of a Brexit impact in the data:
After a bumpy ride through the summer months, with a disappointing July followed by a surprisingly strong August, the European passenger car market came back to a more normal pattern in September − one of solid but not outstanding growth.
By and large, September was broadly in line with expectations with still no evidence of any impact from the UK’s vote to leave the European Union.
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PM's spokeswoman brushes off Tusk's Brexit comments
Britain is committed to leaving the EU, a spokeswoman for Theresa May has said, brushing off a suggestion by the European council president, Donald Tusk, that the country might change its mind.
Tusk said on Thursday that Britain was facing a choice between hard Brexit or no Brexit.
May’s spokeswoman said:
The prime minister has been very clear ... that the British people have made their decision and we are now going to get on with that, with taking the UK out of the EU and on making the most of the opportunities ahead.
The spokeswoman pointed out that Tusk had said Brexit talks should be approached in good faith:
That is the sort of spirit the prime minister wants to encourage and foster with other European partners, that we approach this constructively.
There are opportunities both for the UK and for the EU with the decision to leave and so we now need to come together, work together effectively to agree on a new arrangement, a new relationship that can work in the interests of all of us.
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Weak UK construction data for August shows that the government needs to invest more in infrastructure, according to the TUC.
Frances O’Grady, the TUC general secretary, says:
Today’s construction figures are a timely reminder for the chancellor. We are not building enough homes, roads and railways.
Philip Hammond must use next month’s autumn statement to green light investment in housebuilding, high-speed rail and a new runway at Heathrow.
With investors twitchy after Brexit, the government needs to step up.
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Mark Carney: Bank of England will tolerate inflation overshoot
Mark Carney has said he is willing to tolerate an overshoot of the Bank of England’s 2% inflation target.
The governor’s comments suggest that the Bank’s policymakers will focus on supporting economic growth through low interest rates following the Brexit vote, rather than acting to bring inflation down.
Speaking at an event in Nottingham, Carney said:
Our judgment in the summer was that we could have seen another 400,000-500,000 people unemployed over the course of the next few years. So we’re willing to tolerate a bit of overshoot in inflation over the course of the next few years in order to avoid that situation, to cushion the blow.
UK inflation was 0.6% in August, well below the 2% target. But the Bank and other commentators have warned that inflation will soon start to rise, as the sharp fall in the pound since the Brexit vote starts to feed through to higher import prices.
Carney also conceded that it’s “going to get difficult” for people on lower incomes as prices start to rise at a faster pace.
Carney says inflation is going to rise. Food first, goods and services over the next "few years". "It will show up."
— Kamal Ahmed (@bbckamal) October 14, 2016
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George Osborne decisively backs Heathrow expansion
The former chancellor George Osborne has made it very clear that he is not ready for a quiet life on the backbenches.
In a series of tweets on the controversial and long running subject of UK airport expansion, Osborne decisively backed Heathrow.
A formal decision is expected next Tuesday ...
Time for a decision on airports & go for Heathrow. Economic case overwhelming;connects Northern Powerhouse;ensures Britain is open to world.
— George Osborne (@George_Osborne) October 14, 2016
If we want Britain to be outward-looking,free-trading & global, we must expand the great airport that connects us to that world & that trade
— George Osborne (@George_Osborne) October 14, 2016
We can consider Gatwick expansion. But not at the expense of Heathrow - and not in parallel or else, in practice, nothing will get built.
— George Osborne (@George_Osborne) October 14, 2016
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The former chancellor George Osborne has said Britain must work hard to retain its status as the world’s financial centre.
Comments this morning from Michel Sapin, the French finance minister, show that London’s rival European cities for finance are prepared for a fight to win business in the post-Brexit vote world.
Just opened the huge new@UBS office in City. I broke the ground here in 2012. We must work hard to keep UK the global centre of finance
— George Osborne (@George_Osborne) October 13, 2016
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Samuel Tombs, the chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, says the weak construction data suggests that the sector has relapsed into recession.
He adds:
The construction sector’s outlook will brighten if the chancellor cancels planned cuts to public sector investment in next month’s autumn statement.
But with firms’ investment intentions still depressed by the Brexit vote, commercial construction work looks set to fall sharply. Meanwhile, the recent flat trend in housing starts and skilled labour shortages suggest that housebuilding will continue to track sideways for now.
Construction output down 1.5% m/m in August; decline broad-based. Barring a surge in Sept, construction sector relapsed into recession in Q3 pic.twitter.com/YCTaokwFhN
— Samuel Tombs (@samueltombs) October 14, 2016
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Supplementary point on Marmite-gate ...
Unforeseen Brexit benefits #1: Iceland giving away free big jars of Marmite (with voucher). Have a slice of toast on me @hwallop. #deflation pic.twitter.com/DbEuh6rPMQ
— James Hall (@JamesFHall) October 14, 2016
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The detail of the UK construction output data shows the biggest drag in August came from a 5.1% monthly drop in infrastructure building. It followed a 6.1% increase in July.
The ONS said infrastructure is particularly volatile because of “the range of products that are included within this type of work”. That sub-sector of the construction industry covers a range of big projects such as windfarms, roads, railways and nuclear plants.
New house building meanwhile fell by 1.3% over the month.
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Tesco wins Marmite-gate as FTSE's top riser
As far as investors are concerned, Tesco came out on top following its spat with product supplier Unilever over prices.
Tesco is the FTSE 100’s best performer this morning, with shares up 3.9%. Unilever on the other hand is near the bottom of the pack, with shares down 0.4%.
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Surprise fall in UK construction output in August
Construction output fell 1.5% in August, surprisings economists who had forecast a 0.2% rise.
The slightly better news was that the Office for National Statistics revised up the figure for July from zero to 0.5% growth.
Kate Davies, a statistician with the ONS, said the fall didn’t appear to be related to the Brexit vote:
Construction output has fallen back quite sharply in recent months and contracted by 1.5% in August. As the fall this month is led by infrastructure, it seems unlikely that post-referendum uncertainties are having an impact.
Monthly construction data can be quite erratic, though, so we would warn against trying to read too much into one set of figures.
The annual rate of growth in construction output was 0.2% in August, better than July’s -1% but much weaker than the 1.5% predicted by economists.
Berenberg’s “chart of the week” is entitled migration to Germany: beyond the big surge.
The German bank says the number of new arrivals has fallen sharply this year for a number of reasons, including the German government’s decision to tighten its policies since early 2016. It follows a huge surge in 2015, when about 890,000 asylum seekers went to Germany, adding 1.1% to the resident population.
The equivalent annual number for 2016 is about 160,000-170,000, which the bank says should be manageable in “economic, fiscal and political terms”.
Here is the chart:
Holger Schmieding, chief economist, says:
Providing for the migrants and refugees is adding to German government spending. Partly as a result of this, the growth rate of government consumption in Germany has risen from an average of 2.5% year on year in the first half of 2015 to 4.1% in the first half of 2016.
This amounts to a fiscal stimulus worth 0.3% of GDP. The mostly state-financed consumer spending of migrants and refugees and the impact on housing construction add to that.
The pound has fallen below $1.22, currently down 0.6% at $1.2176.
Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, says the Brexit comments from French finance minister Michel Sapin, and those from Donald Tusk on Thursday (“it’s hard Brexit or no Brexit”) are weighing on the pound:
The President of the European Council (Donald Tusk) poured cold water on the idea, propounded by Boris Johnson, that Britain could potentially strike a better deal with the EU post-Brexit, claiming that a hard exit is the only offer on the table. Sapin, the French finance minister, then stated this morning that some US banks are already looking to move their operations out of London in favour of the continent.
Unsurprisingly this kind of rhetoric hasn’t been welcomed by the pound, which has fallen half a percent against the dollar and 0.1% against the euro. While this keeps sterling above the week’s (and, indeed, decades’) lows, that fact will provide mere crumbs of comfort for the currency.
The FTSE 100 is faring better, as Campbell points out:
As for the FTSE, the abrupt end to Marmite-gate last night, with Tesco and Unilever coming to a price agreement, and a rebound from its mining stocks has allowed the UK index to climb back above the 7000 mark.
China: inflation rises more than expected
Higher food prices pushed official inflation in China to 1.9% in September, from 1.3% in August.
It was higher than the 1.6% predicted by economists, and helped to ease investor fears about the health of the world’s second largest economy after disappointing trade data on Thursday unnerved global markets.
Producer prices (or factory gate prices) also rose unexpectedly in September for the first time in almost five years because of higher commodity prices.
Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said it was good news:
In an encouraging sign this morning’s Chinese consumer prices inflation data does appear to show that inflation is gaining traction, with CPI coming in at 1.9%, above expectations.
Factory gate prices still remain sluggish, though they have finally made it into positive territory at 0.1%, the first time that has happened since February 2012. Chinese PPi prices have been slowly improving for several months now so this return to positive territory is welcome news, especially so when prices were -5.9% at the beginning of this year.
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FTSE 100 climbs back above 7,000
After hitting an record intraday high on Tuesday, the FTSE 100 slipped back below 7,000 on Thursday when disappointing trade data from China hit mining stocks.
It’s a different story this morning, with European markets up across the board:
- FTSE 100: +0.6% at 7,021
- FTSE 250: +0.4% at 17,956
- Germany’s DAX: +0.6% at 10,476
- France’s CAC: +0.7% at 4,438
- Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.5% at 16,353
- Spain’s IBEX: +0.9% at 8,683
- Europe’s STOXX 600: +0.7% at 338
Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s says the pound could lose its status as a save haven currency following the Brexit vote.
Ravi Bhatia, S&P’s director of sovereign ratings for Britain, told the Telegraph:
To be a reserve currency means that the world has trust in you and is happy to hold its savings in your currency. It creates a pool of available capital. If you lose this and sterling becomes just another currency, a key advantage is lost.
He also suggested some complacency on the part of the UK government as it prepares to negotiate its way out of the EU:
There seems to be this view that ‘we’re a big important economy, the Europeans export a lot to us, so they have got to give us what we want’, but is that really true?
Pound hovers around $1.22
The pound is down slightly against the dollar this morning, by 0.4%, but is just about managing to stay above the $1.22 level. It is currently at $1.2206.
It is also holding steady against the euro, down -0.1% at €1.1075.
European markets have opened higher. Full details to follow.
Introduction: France says London will lose US banks
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Marmite-gate might have been settled for now (read here how yesterday’s dramatic events unfolded), but there are other tales this morning of how Brexit might negatively affect Britain.
The French finance minister Michel Sapin has told a press conference in Paris that US banks are definitely pressing ahead with plans to move some operations out of the UK in favour of other European countries.
Sapin was in Washington last week for the IMF meetings and he says that now that Britain’s exit form the EU seems certain, US banks are busy making plans to leave the UK.
Paris, of course, would welcome the banks with open arms, but it will undoubtedly encounter stiff competition from other cities such as Frankfurt.
Of course we’ve heard it all before that banks will consider moving out of London, but Sapin suggests the plans have moved up a gear.
Here is what he had to say about US banks:
For them, until now, the question was ‘will Brexit take place? Will it really be implemented? You talk about two years but maybe it will last three or four years?’.
That’s over now, there’s no more of that. It’s no longer ‘will there be’ or ‘if’ there’s a Brexit. It’s ‘there will be a Brexit in two years and after two years we will have to take decisions.
Sapin said some banks had already decided that activities will be transferred to the continent.
Those are their words, not mine. [It is an] inevitable outcome, whatever the result of the Brexit negotiations.
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