That’s all for today. Katie Allen’s news story about the ECB is here, and being updated now:

I’ll be back tomorrow, to cover a meeting of eurozone finance ministers. They’ll be considering Greece’s bailout, where Athens has been falling behind its targets. So it could be a lively event.

Thanks for reading and commenting. GW

FXTM Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga is concerned that Europe’s recovery is faltering.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the Eurozone is entangled in a losing battle with faltering growth while static inflation levels continue to question the ECB’s credibility.

Although Draghi also suggested that the economic recovery in Europe is likely to be dampened by the UK’s Brexit vote, this was still not enough to prompt the central bank to act. While Draghi’s dovish rhetoric may have opened doors for an extension to bond buying program beyond March 2017, the visible disappointment could propel the Euro higher.

Markets should be patient, as the European Central Bank will surely boost its QE programme once its staff have worked out the best method.

So argues Craig Erlam, market analyst at City firm OANDA.

The ECB may not have announced any more policy easing today, or even indicated that further stimulus is likely in the coming months, but Mario Draghi did a fine job in talking up bond yields in the euro area. Perhaps a sly attempt to free up more assets eligible for purchase under the current quantitative easing structure.

There were two main takeaways from today’s ECB decision and press conference. The first is that inflation and growth forecasts were lowered but only marginally reflecting the negative, albeit less so than previously expected, impact of the Brexit vote. The other is that the committee has been given a full mandate to redesign QE. In other words, the central bank is approaching the point at which it will no longer be possible to carry out QE in its current form, but it is looking at ways to overcome it.

That would explain why they did not announce an extension to the QE program beyond March 2017 today because they must first decide how the program will be adapted. That is not to say it won’t be. In fact, Draghi made it clear that QE will continue, stating that it will run until or beyond the current expiry if necessary. He also claimed that it will run until inflation path is consistent with its goal, which it currently isn’t close to.

All things considered, today was not the event it was built up to be. However, it is clear that the ECB is working towards some significant changes to the QE program, even if that doesn’t necessarily mean more stimulus in the short term. Whether that takes three or six months isn’t really too important.

Here’s a word cloud of Mario Draghi’s statement, from Teneo Intelligence

Q: Have you considered whether the ECB’s inflation target (just below 2%), should be changed to a ‘nominal inflation’ target (ie, growth plus inflation).

We didn’t have that discussion yet, says Draghi, before quickly removing the ‘yet’.

We didn’t have that discussion, he repeats firmly.

This has not been the most exciting press conference in monetary policy history...

Q: Germany is on track to run a record surplus this year, so will you tell the Bundestag to do more to help their neighbours?

You can’t just push a button and eliminate a trade surplus if a country is naturally competitive, Draghi replies. This isn’t a “planned economy”.

Q: But do you want Germany to boost government spending to help the recovery?

Countries who have fiscal space should use it. Germany has fiscal space, Draghi replies smoothly.

Asked again about government policies on structural reforms, Draghi says the G20’s communique was quite powerful.

That statement said:

Our growth must be shored up by well-designed and coordinated policies. We are determined to use all policy tools - monetary, fiscal and structural - individually and collectively to achieve our goal of strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth.

Monetary policy will continue to support economic activity and ensure price stability, consistent with central banks’ mandates, but monetary policy alone cannot lead to balanced growth.

Words are cheaper than action, though, Mario.....

Q: Can you rule out buying shares, or deploying helicopter money?

We haven’t discussed either, Draghi says, so I can’t ask that question.

Q: Can you reassure the public that interest rates will remain positive?

The average consumer is now the main actor in the recovery, Draghi says. The recovery is based on domestic consumption, which means it is more resilient than previous recoveries based on exports.

Draghi is asked about his call for all eurozone governments to “substantially step up” their structural reforms.

Q: Are central bankers putting more pressure on politicians?

Draghi responds by reading the statement from last week’s meeting of G20 leaders, which warned that monetary policy cannot fix the world economy on its own.

Our policy has been extremely effective, Draghi murmurs reassuringly in his best bedside voice.

If we had not acted, then various shocks - such as the UK referendum - would have had a greater impact, he argues.

And the ECB president doesn’t accept that his QE programme is causing serious side-effects.

The transmission fo our monetary policy has never worked better, he declares -- when the ECB changes interest rates, that ripples quickly through the eurozone. Competition between banks is driving lending.

Draghi also says there are no serious signs that people are hoarding cash because of negative rates.

Draghi repeats that the ECB is watching financial conditions, and inflation expectations, closely - but doesn’t yet see a need to act.

Behind the scenes, ECB economists are examining how to enhance its QE programme - ready for a big decision in three month’s time?

There should be no doubt about the ECB’s will, capacity or ability to take further action if needed, Draghi insists.

Mario Draghi’s opening statement is now online, here:

Introductory statement to the press conference

This is the point where he blames the Brexit vote for holding back Europe’s recovery:

However, the economic recovery in the euro area is expected to be dampened by still subdued foreign demand, partly related to the uncertainties following the UK referendum outcome, the necessary balance sheet adjustments in a number of sectors and a sluggish pace of implementation of structural reforms.

The risks to the euro area growth outlook remain tilted to the downside and relate mainly to the external environment.

Q: You have cut your inflation forecast again, so why not boost your stimulus programme?

Draghi says that its only a small downgrade, so no need to act now.

Q: Could the ECB extend its QE programme to cover equities (shares)?

Draghi isn’t lured into this one, says that the programme is being effective so the focus should be on implementing it.

Mario Draghi is now lecturing Europe’s elected politicians that they need to “Substantially Step Up” their structural reform efforts.

The focus should be on actions to raise productivity, he urges.

But he says this kind of thing every month. Is anyone actually listening?

Financial experts aren’t impressed by Draghi’s Brexit warning:

Mario Draghi has arrived for his press conference, and is being surrounded by photographers.

He’s now shoo’d them away, and we’re off!

Frankfurt traders are disappointed by the lack of fresh stimulus measures in the ECB’s statement.

German bonds are selling off, pushing up the yield on the debt. And the DAX stock market index has fallen by 0.5%.

Investors may have been hoping that the ECB would tweak its rules to allow it to buy more German debt.

Bloomberg’s Lorcan Roche Kelly says the ECB has basically copied out July’s statement again:

The European Central bank also “reaffirms” that it will run its quantitative easing programme until March 2017, or beyond if needed.

That’s not a major change of policy -- Mario Draghi had already said that stimulus would continue until inflation was close to target.

The ECB could easily hold off any big decisions today, but hint that fresh stimulus measures are coming in a few months.

Trader Dan Goldberg tweets:

We did this joke hours ago:

Just 45 minutes to go until the ECB shatters the calm by announcing the results of today’s meeting.

But there’s little chance of a shock, really -- the governing council will surely leave the main interest rate at zero.

And it won’t want to hurt eurozone banks by imposing even deeper negative rates -- they are already charged 0.4% on deposits left at the ECB.

The euro has been rallying this morning, up around 0.5%, as traders anticipate that Draghi will disappoint those who expect fresh stimulus.

Money has been flowing out of European stock markets this year, as investors have fretted about the eurozone’s structural problems, the EU referendum, and the rise of populist parties.

But despite the endless drama of 2016, valuations are only slightly lower than in January - and bank shares have rallied over the summer (after an earlier rout).

Vincent Juvyns of JP Morgan Asset Management says the Brexit vote has only had a “limited” impact on market sentiment so far:

Sentiment indicators from July and August have been relatively undented and the feared surge in anti-EU sentiment failed to materialize in the post-Brexit Spanish elections. In fact, the outcome of the UK referendum seems to have paradoxically awakened some support in Europe for the union, both from its citizens and from its politicians, with Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande and Matteo Renzi agreeing further initiatives this summer to give Europe new momentum.

The ECB’s stimulus package is also “bearing fruit”, with inflation picking up recently.

These price trends should continue thanks to the rebound in the oil price since the beginning of the year and the growth of monetary aggregates directly induced by monetary policy. At the same time, quantitative easing, the new targeted longer-term refinancing operations and the Corporate Sector Purchase Programme are all helping to improve the transmission of monetary policy, leading to more favourable financing conditions.

So if governments do their big, and boost fiscal spending, Europe’s slow recovery might actually pick up.

There’s a glimmer of light in the troubled Greek economy; the unemployment rate has dipped to 23.4% in June, from 23.6% in May.

But youth unemployment is running at twice that level:

UK electronics group Dixons Carphone has ridden the EU referendum uncertainty in style.

The company has reported a 9% jump in sales in the May-to-July quarter -- suggesting consumers weren’t gripped by panic after the June 23 referendum.

CEO Seb James says there’s no sign that Brexit has hit shoppers.

“We are delivering pleasing growth in all markets and continued high levels of customer satisfaction, and thus far, continue to see no detectable impact of the Brexit vote on consumer behaviour in the UK.”

Perhaps that’s because the UK has done remarkably little, yet, about actually leaving the EU and is adopting a ‘cards-close-to-the-chest’ strategy.

Europe’s patience isn’t inexhaustible, though, as APF’s Danny Kemp explains:

Germany’s economy will suffer from Brexit angst next year, says the country’s Institute for Economic Research (or DIW):

Brexit fears will be high on the ECB’s agenda today - after recent surveys showed that eurozone business growth has fallen to its lowest since January.

The UK’s economy appears to be performing better than many economists feared since the June referendum (so far, anyway...). But the uncertainty over Britain’s future relationship with the EU is also casting a shadow over the continent.

That’s why Donald Tusk is urging Theresa May to trigger Article 50 as soon as possible, at Downing Street today.

Conner Campbell of SpreadEx explains why the ECB should be concerned:

There has been plenty of evidence in the last few weeks to suggest that the Eurozone, despite the various measures in place, is still struggling, with 3 month and 19 month lows in the manufacturing and services PMIs respectively alongside perpetually stagnant inflation.

Draghi and co. are set to slash growth forecasts when they reveal the fruits of their labour later on; what is unclear, however, is if those downgrades will be joined some kind of extension or expansion to what is already out there.

European stock markets have inched up in early trading, close to their highest levels since January.

And that means there is less pressure on the ECB to launch new stimulus measures today.

Lena Komileva of G+ Economics tweets that the stars aren’t aligned for another boost of QE....

Draghi isn’t the only Super Mario making headlines today.

Nintendo’ share surged by 18% overnight, after it announced it will (finally) put its iconic, pixellated plumber onto Apple mobile phones.

The new game is called “Super Mario Run” - not to be confused with “Super Mario Bank Run”, which is what we’ll get if the eurozone crisis really explodes....

European Central Bank policymakers are probably split over whether to do even more quantitative easing.

Hawkish members of the governing council, such as Germany’s Jens Weidmann, might fight efforts to buy even more government and corporate debt.

The FT’s Claire Jones explains the situation:

If QE continues much past the spring, the council will have to remove restrictions such as the minus 0.4 per cent floor that limits the purchase of the most expensive sovereign debt

Or it could drop the commitment to buy bonds of member states according to the size of their economies. But changing either risks reviving spats between the governing council’s hawks and doves.

More here:

Four things to watch for at the ECB meeting

And here:

The European Central Bank will probably warn today that the Brexit vote will hit the eurozone economy, according to RBC Capital Markets.

They write:

Our economists look for the 2017 growth estimate to be lowered as the UK referendum is factored in, and that should have a knock on-effect on inflation.

So while consensus might not be looking for an extension to QE today, that may understate the expectations for today’s press conference.

In other words, Draghi might surprise the City with some new stimulus measures in this afternoon’s press conference.

Hope Mario Draghi has a new pencil case for the autumn term too.....